150
AXNT20 KNHC 031102
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Apr 3 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Meteo-France Gale Warning: Meteo-France forecasts gale-force S or
SW winds, veering to W or SW in Madeira through 04/00 UTC, the
Northern Canary Islands from 03/06 UTC through at least 03/15 UTC,
and SW in Agadir from 03/12 UTC through 03/21 UTC. Rough to very
rough seas will likely accompany these winds. For more details,
refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their
website https://wwwmiws.wmo.int .

...MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 11N16W and
extends southwestward to 02N23W. The ITCZ extends from 02N23W to
03S44W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
south of 07N between 08W and 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A trough has been analyzed from 25N91W southwestward to 19N94W,
and the subtropical ridge extends from the western Atlantic
through the northern Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient
between these features is supporting fresh to strong S to SE winds
west of 85W, with moderate to fresh SE winds occurring to the
east. Recent fixed buoy data shows seas of 8 to 11 ft north of 22N
and west of 89W. Moderate seas of 3 to 6 ft are noted across the
eastern Gulf. No significant convection is noted over the basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong S to SE winds and rough seas of
8 to 12 ft are expected across the central and western Gulf of
Mexico west of 87W through Sat, as a strong pressure gradient
prevails between high pressure over the central Atlantic and
complex low pressure systems in the central United States. Winds
may pulse to near-gale force in this region each late night
through the morning hours into Sat. East of 87W, moderate to fresh
SE winds are expected through Sat, with pulsing strong winds
possible through the Florida Straits. Looking ahead, a cold front
associated with the complex storm systems in the central United
States will enter the northwestern Gulf Sat night, leading to
fresh to strong N winds and rough seas in the wake of the front
Sun into early next week. Winds may approach gale force offshore
of Tampico and Veracruz on Sun. Looking ahead, the cold front will
slowly progress through the basin early next week, and winds and
seas will slowly diminish behind the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1008 mb low has been analyzed just off the coast of Colombia
near 10N76W, and ridging extends over the rest of the Caribbean.
The pressure gradient between these features is supporting fresh
to strong trades and rough seas in the central and eastern
Caribbean, with similar winds near the Gulf of Honduras. Winds are
mainly moderate to fresh elsewhere. Away from the aforementioned
areas, seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail in the northwestern Caribbean.

For the forecast, strong to near-gale force E to NE winds will
pulse offshore of Colombia and through the Gulf of Venezuela each
night and morning into this weekend. Very rough seas peaking near
13 ft will occur near and to the west of the strongest winds in
the south-central Caribbean. Elsewhere, strong to near-gale force
SE winds will likely pulse each evening into the early morning
hours in the Gulf of Honduras through this weekend. Rough seas
will occur in association with these winds. Otherwise, a strong
pressure gradient between high pressure over the central Atlantic
and the Colombian low will support widespread fresh to strong
trade winds across the rest of the basin through Sat, including
through the Mona and Windward Passages. Rough seas of 8 to 12 ft
will prevail over the southwestern, central and eastern basin,
including across the tropical Atlantic waters into the Caribbean
passages, during this time. Looking ahead, the pressure gradient
will relax for Sun into early next week, supporting moderate to
locally fresh trade winds across much of the Caribbean, with
pulsing strong winds occurring offshore of Colombia.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on a Gale Warning in
effect for the Meteo-France area.

The Atlantic basin is dominated by 1035 high pressure centered
north of the area near 42N65W, with the subtropical ridge axis
extending southward into the subtropical and tropical Atlantic. A
complex low pressure system between the Canary Islands and the
Azores is supporting fresh to near gale-force winds north of 26N
between 18W and 34W. Associated large seas of 8 to 12 ft cover
the waters north of 23N between the W coast of Africa and 37W,
with seas of 12 to 16 ft occurring N of 26N between 16W and 35W.
Fresh to strong E to NE winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft prevail
across much of the basin W of 30W and S of 25N. The remainder of
the Atlantic is seeing moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong trade winds will
occur south of 25N, including through the Florida Straits, through
Sat morning as a strong pressure gradient prevails between high
pressure in the central Atlantic and the Colombian low. Very rough
seas of 8 to 11 ft will accompany these winds. The pressure
gradient will relax for the second half of the weekend into next
week as a low pressure system moves through the central Atlantic,
weakening the ridge. As a result, moderate to locally fresh trade
winds and locally rough seas are expected across this region into
early next week. A long-period N swell associated with the central
Atlantic low pressure system will push into the northeastern
waters, north of 20N and east of 65W, by early next week, leading
to rough seas. Looking ahead, fresh to locally strong S winds are
slated to develop off the coast of central and northern Florida on
Sun ahead of a cold front moving through the southeastern United
States. The cold front is forecast to move off the coast early
next week, and winds will turn to the W and NW behind the front.

$$
ADAMS
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