ACUS11 KWNS 221747
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221747
UTZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-221915-

Mesoscale Discussion 2398
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Nevada...southwest Utah and extreme
northwest Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 221747Z - 221915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Occasional strong-severe gusts, isolated large hail and an
isolated tornado will all be possible. However, the threat is
expected to remain relatively sparse and on the lower margins for a
broad area, so a watch is not currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION...A midlevel trough over southern/central CA is beginning
to eject east-northeastward toward the southern Great Basin, with
downstream forcing for ascent likewise overspreading eastern NV,
western UT and extreme northwest AZ. Surface heating in cloud
breaks is contributing to destabilization and storm coverage is
expected to increase in broken bands through the afternoon. Long,
straight hodographs will favor a mix of splitting cells and line
segments capable of producing isolated large hail and strong-severe
gusts. The magnitude of the threat will be limited somewhat by
relatively shallow buoyancy profiles. The environment is a bit more
favorable for supercells across southwest UT and vicinity where
buoyancy is larger with mid-upper 50s dewpoints and the storm mode
will be semi-discrete.

..Thompson/Guyer.. 10/22/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4lNOOi1xanM3Fy1dzxAYIQqB0JZMRsewgVL-x5Jzwxdl1yL4RCzS6OHN3tNYBAHItnOJu_ia-XV2vBBWMWORlW0FzI8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...VEF...LKN...

LAT...LON 38521352 37771251 37091245 36451284 36021428 36161494
36631536 37591530 38521523 39501533 40961565 41981562
41981498 39861446 38521352

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
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