ACUS11 KWNS 221607
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221607
NMZ000-COZ000-UTZ000-AZZ000-221730-

Mesoscale Discussion 2397
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1107 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Arizona and western New Mexico

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 691...692...

Valid 221607Z - 221730Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 691, 692
continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for a mix of supercells and storm clusters will
spread eastward from Arizona into New Mexico by this afternoon. A
new watch will likely be needed downstream into New Mexico, with the
potential for local watch extensions farther west into central AZ.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms, a few with supercell
structures, continue across central and eastern AZ, with the
stronger storms focused near the edge of the higher terrain.
Convection will likely persist into the afternoon as forcing for
ascent develops eastward/northeastward in advance of a midlevel
trough over southern CA that will begin to eject east-northeastward.
Cloud breaks will contribute to destabilization farther northeast
with time across AZ/NM, in an environment with long hodographs
favoring splitting supercells and clusters. The stronger low-level shear/hodograph curvature and somewhat richer low-level moisture are
focused near the Mogollon Rim in central AZ with some eastward
expansion expected into this afternoon, where a couple of tornadoes
will be possible. Otherwise, large hail and damaging gusts will be
the main concerns through the afternoon. A new watch is likely into
western NM by 17z, and some combination of local watch extensions
and the new watch will be needed as far west as central AZ.

..Thompson/Guyer.. 10/22/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_JzVAMzg7QelllfkA0u2joHMilHyFZYUhVm7lOxtcYXDgTc4X3mm8ExzqFXwgwqmTk2lFgP3NakBdVGaYoqMr3dyoOQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...GJT...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON 32260968 32611072 33551156 34211180 34971187 36311173
36961097 37000868 37000764 36670738 35980741 34270767
32990817 32320861 32260968

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)