ACUS11 KWNS 212141
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212141
NMZ000-AZZ000-220015-

Mesoscale Discussion 2389
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0441 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Areas affected...northwestern New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 212141Z - 220015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
through the afternoon across northwestern New Mexico. The strongest
storms will be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds,
but the severe coverage is expected to be too isolated to warrant a
watch.

DISCUSSION...Surface heating throughout the day has resulted in
modest destabilization across western New Mexico. As a result,
thunderstorms have developed over the area and will continue to
increase in coverage and intensity over the next few hours as they
move to the northeast. While low-level moisture (low 50s surface
dewpoints) is limiting instability and updraft strength, deep-layer
shear is sufficient to support organized updrafts, including
supercell structures. The strongest and longest-lived updrafts will
be capable of producing large hail and strong wind gusts, but the
overall threat is expected to remain too isolated for a watch.

..Jirak/Smith.. 10/21/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8ELuh_q9pKlAbHtsQYkFtmtIYlvl8-tMUVSzR3rNy58gc-gTEgAbVARDm0WPsSImX6e_WHjkF7cxh_6oFkUX1xSYvqs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...

LAT...LON 34690912 35730915 36340893 36700828 36940766 36960674
36020647 35480652 34850688 34340725 34000816 34120867
34690912

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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--- scorpsmtpd
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