ACUS11 KWNS 192001
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192000
NMZ000-AZZ000-192200-

Mesoscale Discussion 2383
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Areas affected...portions of southeastern Arizona and southwest New
Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 192000Z - 192200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm cover is expected to increase later this
afternoon with an isolated risk for hail or severe gusts. A WW is
unlikely.

DISCUSSION...As of 2000 UTC, visible imagery showed cumulus towers
and initial thunderstorms deepening near the international border
and across the higher terrain of southeastern AZ. Surface
temperatures have steadily warmed this afternoon ahead of a weak
upper trough. Surface dewpoints in the upper 50s with mid-level
temperatures near -12 to -14 C are supporting around 500 J/kg of
MLCAPE. Continue heating with steepening of lapse rate profiles
should remove inhibition with additional thunderstorms expected to
develop in and near the higher terrain this afternoon. While
buoyancy will likely remain modest, effective shear of 30-40 kt
could support some storm organization. Isolated, marginally severe
hail and gusty outflow winds may occur with the stronger cells that
develop and spread eastward from AZ into NM.

Coverage should gradually increase this afternoon and into the
evening hours as the upper trough moves overhead. Hi-res guidance
shows this well, but with only sporadic more intense storms given
the marginal buoyancy. This should keep the severe risk fairly
isolated and a WW is unlikely.

..Lyons/Guyer.. 10/19/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-YGFJCkamHynVAm2nu4r9zqv554RsBkyxBYyAwrsb9eoQEROyIAngNOrLMuxiHkNtWv5BXd_GAMDy3Zi5YGXfSY6wJ4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...

LAT...LON 31611172 32771122 33290974 33370892 33170818 32470750
31910745 31440769 31080813 31030838 31191114 31611172

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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--- scorpsmtpd
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