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  • DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 5 06:40:56 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 050640
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 050639

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0139 AM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026

    Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe storms are unlikely on Wednesday.

    ...Synopsis...
    An upper low will be situated near James Bay on Wednesday, with a
    broad upper trough enveloping much of eastern Canada. A strong upper
    speed max and tight midlevel temperature gradient will extend
    roughly from MN to the Great Lakes, with gradual height falls across
    the region. Meanwhile, a southern-stream upper jet will extend from
    the Desert Southwest into TX, and across the Gulf Coast states. Cool
    midlevel temperatures aloft will be prevalent over the Four Corners
    states with -12 C at 500 mb.

    Minimal instability will be present to support any thunderstorms
    from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, despite the cooling aloft,
    as surface temperatures will be relatively cool. A few low-topped
    showers may affect the Lower Great Lakes Wednesday night.

    Isolated thunderstorms will again be possible over the FL Peninsula,
    as a front and surface trough gradually move south. Instability and
    shear will be weak enough to preclude any severe weather chances.

    Elsewhere, daytime heating and the presence of cool temperatures
    aloft will support scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms
    over parts of UT, CO, AZ and NM. Isolated evening/overnight
    thunderstorms may extend into NE, as southwest 850 mb winds develop
    over the central Plains, aiding meager moisture advection. Severe
    storms appear unlikely.

    ..Jewell.. 10/05/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 5 19:30:50 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 051930
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 051929

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0229 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026

    Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe storms are not expected on Wednesday.

    ...Synopsis...
    An initially low-amplitude upper trough over southern Canada and the
    northern US will deepen into an upper low as it and an associated
    strong mid-level jet move over the Great Lakes and Northeast. A cold
    front and cooling mid-level temperatures will support weak buoyancy
    beneath the upper low, with isolated thunderstorms likely to be
    ongoing early Wednesday. This may continue through the day with
    strong height falls overspreading the Lakes and Northeast. A few
    low-topped showers/storms with sporadic lightning may continue into
    early Thursday. Otherwise, drier and cooler conditions associated
    with the advancing cold front will limit thunderstorm potential over
    much of the central and eastern US.

    Meanwhile, a modest southern-stream upper jet will extend from the
    Desert Southwest into TX, and across the Gulf Coast states where a
    remnant front will be stalled along the coast. Isolated
    thunderstorms will again be possible over the FL Peninsula, and
    southern LA/TX near the more robust surface moisture. However,
    instability and shear will be weak enough to preclude any severe
    weather chances.

    Across the West, daytime heating, residual monsoon moisture and the
    presence of cool temperatures aloft with a weak upper trough over
    the Rockies will support scattered afternoon showers and
    thunderstorms over parts of UT, CO, AZ and NM. Easterly upslope flow
    associated with the cold front moving down the Plains may also
    support an isolated storm or two across western/central NE overnight
    into early Thursday. Meager instability and ascent will preclude
    severe weather potential.

    ..Lyons.. 10/05/2026

    $$

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 6 05:10:56 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 060510
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 060509

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1209 AM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026

    Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe storms are not expected on Thursday.

    ...Synopsis...
    An upper low will move slowly into western Quebec on Thursday, with
    a broad area of cyclonic flow aloft from the northern Plains across
    the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. Low-topped convective
    showers may occur over parts of the upper Great Lakes by virtue of
    cold temperatures aloft.

    To the south, high pressure will maintain dry conditions over much
    of the Southeast, the exception being FL where a moist air mass and
    daytime heating will support scattered afternoon thunderstorms.

    To the west, isolated weak thunderstorms may occur during the
    afternoon over parts of the Four Corners states, and overnight from
    eastern NE into northwest MO. Here, moisture will be the limiting
    factor to any elevated hail chances.

    ..Jewell.. 10/06/2026

    $$

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 6 19:20:24 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 061920
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 061919

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0219 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026

    Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe storms are not expected across the U.S. Thursday and Thursday
    night.

    ...DISCUSSION...
    A large-scale upper-level trough will move through the Northeast on
    Thursday, as mid-level flow becomes west-northwesterly over much of
    the northern U.S. In the southern states, a moist airmass will be
    confined to south Texas and the Florida Peninsula. Scattered storms
    are expect over Florida during the day, and an isolated storm will
    be possible in South Texas. Scattered thunderstorms are also
    expected in the afternoon from the Four Corners region into the
    southern and central Rockies. Elevated storms may also develop in
    parts of the mid Missouri Valley Thursday night. No severe threat is
    forecast across the continental U.S. Thursday and Thursday night.

    ..Broyles.. 10/06/2026

    $$

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 7 07:35:32 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 070735
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 070734

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0234 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026

    Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
    NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    An increasing tornado risk may develop into early Saturday morning
    along the north-central Gulf Coast in association with the
    developing tropical cyclone.

    ...Discussion...
    Severe storm chances will be low across most of the CONUS on Friday,
    the exception being over the northern Gulf Coast late Friday night
    into Saturday morning.

    NHC currently forecasts Tropical Depression 9 to become a hurricane
    late Thursday, strengthening further into Friday over the Gulf of
    America. Some uncertainty exists as to the timing of an eventual
    forward acceleration northward. In any case, the system is forecast
    to affect the northern Gulf Coast late in the Day 3 period (which
    ends at 12Z Saturday morning), and as such, low probabilities for
    tornado risk have been added.

    Low-level shear/SRH will be very strong east of the storm center.
    The surface air mass may remain stable over the mainland until very
    close to 12Z Saturday, with a greater chance of larger SBCAPE over
    extreme southeast LA prior to 12Z. Once the coastal boundary moves
    inland, a surge of mid 70s F dewpoints and southerly winds will lead
    to overly enlarged hodographs, supporting rotation in the stronger
    cells with tornado potential.

    ..Jewell.. 10/07/2026

    $$

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 7 19:32:58 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 071932
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 071931

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0231 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026

    Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY
    THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/BIG BEND AND
    ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    A risk for tornadoes may develop across parts of northeastern Gulf
    coastal areas late Friday into early Saturday ahead of Isaias.

    ...Discussion...
    Within the mid-latitude westerlies, it appears that large-scale
    mid-level troughing will undergo substantive further amplification
    across British Columbia through the Pacific Northwest. Downstream
    ridging is forecast to build from the lee of the northern Rockies
    through the upper Great Lakes/northwest Ontario vicinity, with
    large-scale troughing to the east continuing slowly eastward across
    New England and the Canadian Maritimes vicinity.

    In the wake of the lead troughing, the building center of cool
    surface ridging is forecast to shift from the upper Ohio
    Valley/Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic Friday
    through Friday night. At least initially, it appears that the south
    to southwestern flank of this ridging will nose through much of the
    south Atlantic Coast into eastern Gulf Coast states.

    At the same time, Isaias is forecast to approach and migrate inland
    of the northeastern Gulf coast as a hurricane, in advance of
    high-level troughing which models suggest will begin accelerating
    northeast of the Texas coastal plain vicinity by early Friday.
    Model spread remains sizable concerning this trough and the track of
    the tropical cyclone, however.

    ...Northeastern Gulf Coast...
    Severe probabilities have been adjusted to account for the latest
    NHC forecast track of Isaias. Based on the accelerating northward
    motion of this system, evolving hodographs and forcing for ascent
    conditionally most conducive to supercell structures with potential
    to produce tornadoes could become focused well to the
    north-northeast of the cyclone center. This may begin overspreading
    coastal areas by early Friday evening, if not earlier. Even as this
    shifts northward, well inland of coastal areas, it is possible that
    hodographs, at least, will remain conditionally supportive of a
    continuing risk for supercells with tornadoes as far south as areas near/west-northwest of the Florida Big Bend through daybreak.

    The primary uncertainty with regard to the risk for tornadoes
    concerns a preceding influx of potentially cool/stable
    boundary-layer air as far south as coastal areas, which may remain
    inhibitive through the period. Based on 07/12Z NAM (with a track
    similar, but perhaps slower than the official forecast track)
    forecast soundings, low-level thermodynamic profiles do not become
    conducive to an appreciable risk for tornadoes until late Friday
    night, generally near/northwest of the Florida Big Bend. This may
    be in the wake of the better large-scale forcing for ascent.

    ..Kerr.. 10/07/2026

    $$

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 8 07:31:58 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 080731
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 080730

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0230 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026

    Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA
    PANHANDLE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN GEORGIA AND EASTERN ALABAMA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    A corridor of tornado risk may develop out of the Florida Panhandle
    and into parts of Georgia and eastern Alabama on Saturday.

    ...Southeastern States...
    As Isaias merges with the developing shortwave trough over the Lower
    MS Valley on Saturday, moderate to strong wind fields will develop
    over much of the Southeast. East of the surface low track, strong
    southerly low-level winds will aid northward movement of moisture
    and instability from the FL Panhandle northward across eastern AL
    and across much of GA and the eastern Carolinas.

    It is anticipated that severe storms may be ongoing within a
    north-south oriented band east of the low, roughly from the FL
    Panhandle into far eastern AL and southwest GA. Some of the early
    day cells near or south of the effective warm front may produce
    tornadoes as low-level shear will be very strong. This threat area
    should lift north during the day across AL and GA. It should be
    noted that depending on the exact surface low track and warm front
    position, the Slight Risk area may be adjusted in later outlooks.

    Overnight, the warm front will continue to lift north, with
    additional destabilization possible toward the southern
    Appalachians, and Carolinas. A low severe probability has been added
    for the night time scenario, which should see generally lesser (but
    still favorable) shear values and boundary layer instability.

    ...AZ...
    The remnants of Rachel are forecast to spread across the region late
    Saturday into Sunday. As this occurs, moisture and instability will
    increase, as well as deep layer shear as a shortwave trough moves
    toward the region. Given the nocturnal timing of destabilization,
    and substantial model differences, will defer possible severe
    probabilities to later outlooks. At this time, it appears isolated
    cells cannot be ruled out into Sunday morning, but severe potential
    will depend heavily on proper destabilization.

    ..Jewell.. 10/08/2026

    $$

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 8 20:04:12 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 081931
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 081930

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0230 PM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026

    Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY ACROSS
    PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND/PANHANDLE AND EASTERN ALABAMA INTO
    GEORGIA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    A corridor of tornado risk may develop out of the Florida Panhandle
    and into parts of eastern Alabama and Georgia Saturday through
    Saturday night.

    ...Discussion...
    Models indicate considerable further amplification of large-scale
    mid/upper troughing along much of the U.S. Pacific coast Saturday
    through Saturday night. It appears that this may include the east-northeastward acceleration of a short wave trough into/across
    southern California and northern Baja coastal areas, preceded by the
    inland acceleration of remnants of Rachel into the lower Colorado
    Valley by 12Z Sunday.

    Downstream, broad mid/upper ridging is forecast to build within the
    stronger mid-latitude westerlies, east of the Rockies through the
    Atlantic Seaboard. However, within a lingering weaker branch of
    westerlies, a developing mid-level low, including remnants of
    Isaias, is forecast to begin gradually turning northward and
    northeastward, around the northwestern periphery of westward
    building mid/upper ridging across the subtropical western Atlantic
    through the northern Caribbean and southeastern Gulf Basin.

    ...Southeast...
    The weakening low-level circulation center of Isaias is forecast to
    continue accelerating northward, across western Alabama during the
    day Saturday, before slowing across the lower Tennessee Valley
    Saturday night. As it progresses away from the Gulf coast, and
    increasingly displaced from the better low-level moisture return off
    the Gulf, the associated risk for severe weather seems likely to
    diminish.

    Guidance suggests that the return of higher low-level moisture
    content will remain focused along/east of weak surface troughing,
    developing along the southwestern flank of a surface ridge slowly
    shifting across and offshore of middle/northern Atlantic coastal
    areas. It appears that this will generally set up across Georgia
    into parts of the Carolinas, where boundary-layer dew points
    increasing into the 70s F probably will contribute to at least
    modest CAPE on the order of 1000+ J/kg, despite weak lapse rates.
    Coupled with the maintenance of at least moderate southerly 850
    flow, and enlarged low-level hodographs, forcing for ascent
    downstream of the approaching mid-level low/trough may support
    continuing convective development, including supercell structures,
    Saturday into Saturday night. Some of this activity may pose a risk
    for tornadoes and/or locally damaging wind gusts.

    Due to lingering forecast uncertainties, including those associated
    with the extended time frame involved, the Slight Risk area has not
    been changed at the present time. However, this may need to be
    adjusted in later outlooks for this period.

    ..Kerr.. 10/08/2026

    $$

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 9 18:39:34 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 090729
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 090728

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0228 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

    Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
    THE CAROLINAS INTO THE DELMARVA AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER
    COLORADO VALLEY...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a
    few tornadoes appear possible over portions of the Carolinas into
    the Delmarva Sunday into Sunday evening, and parts of the lower
    Colorado Valley mainly Sunday morning.

    ...Synopsis...

    A mid/upper-level low over KY/TN Sunday morning is forecast to
    evolve into an open wave within a broader-scale trough progressing
    through the central and southern Appalachians toward the Atlantic
    Coast. Elsewhere, the remnants of Tropical Storm Rachel initially
    over southern CA will become increasingly sheared within a broad
    belt of enhanced midlevel flow extending from the Desert Southwest
    into the central Rockies. At the surface, an area of low pressure
    will develop from KY into the upper OH Valley with secondary
    cyclogenesis forecast on Sunday afternoon in the lee of the Blue
    Ridge over central VA. That cyclone will be collocated with a
    surface trough advancing east through the Piedmont and Coastal Plain
    and a warm front lifting north through the southern Mid-Atlantic.


    ...Delmarva into the Carolinas...

    Considerable strengthening of the deep-layer wind field is forecast
    on Sunday in advance of the midlevel trough. However, considerable
    cloud cover and areas of precipitation appear likely to limit air
    mass destabilization within the poleward-expanding warm sector.
    Nonetheless, boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s
    will support pockets of modest instability, especially in areas
    where cloud breaks may occur. And given the presence of relatively
    strong low-level and deep-layer shear, a conditional risk for severe
    storms capable of damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes will
    exist Sunday into Sunday evening. Higher severe weather
    probabilities may be required in later forecasts if subsequent model
    data indicate greater instability than that currently depicted.


    ...Lower Colorado and Vicinity...

    As detailed in the recently issued Day 2 Convective Outlook, the
    enhancement of deep-layer shear and forcing for ascent will coincide
    with an at least modestly unstable air mass late Saturday night into
    early Sunday. That regime is likely to persist through at least
    Sunday morning with an associated risk for a few severe storms
    capable of severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two. The
    overall weakening of the midlevel trough by afternoon and limited
    instability lead to uncertainty as to whether any severe weather
    threat will spread north into the Great Basin and central Rockies.

    ..Mead.. 10/09/2026

    $$

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)