ACUS11 KWNS 152056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152056
OHZ000-INZ000-152300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1990
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Areas affected...portions of far eastern Indiana into far western
Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 152056Z - 152300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A conditional risk for isolated damaging wind gusts and
perhaps a brief tornado exists across portions of far eastern
Indiana into western Ohio. The need for a watch remains unclear.

DISCUSSION...Filtered diurnal heating downstream of an MCV readily
apparent in observation data has allowed surface temperatures to
warm into the low 80s F across portions of eastern IN/western OH,
with latest objective analysis depicting around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE
across this area. While some inhibition remains, deepening cumulus
are noted in some areas of clearer skies. Recent CAM guidance
continues to suggest that isolated thunderstorm development may
occur in the next 1-3 hours across this region as ascent downstream
of the approaching MCV continues to overspread the region. Should
this occur, enhanced mid-level flow (sampled by the IND VWP) would
be sufficient to support at least transient supercell structures
should storms develop. In this scenario, poor low- and mid-level
lapse rates would likely temper overall convective intensity, but
modestly enhanced low-level shear and backing low-level flow
(sampled by the ILN VWP) may support a conditional risk for isolated
damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado. This scenario
remains uncertain, but trends will continue to be monitored for
potential watch issuance.

..Chalmers/Guyer.. 08/15/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-Yr5AwLH9WfTZ4m2yVt8lB7OU5yVZJZs6fJPrflSOG-O64YLwkWUgznXzQFgqesOGQi9UY3BKQzATQ8n4ji2AJfBbe8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON 41148467 41088390 40678314 40258296 39838314 39648352
39648428 39888474 40288492 40888495 41148467

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


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