ACUS11 KWNS 132229
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132229=20
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-140030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1128
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0529 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Areas affected...Northeast Oklahoma...southeast Kansas...southwest Missouri...northwest Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 132229Z - 140030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated intense storms will be possible through early
evening. Coverage is uncertain, with increasing confidence of an
organized severe threat in a few hours.

DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar loops show an isolated supercell
has formed in northeast OK. This storm is in vicinity of a remnant
outflow boundary from active convection over northern AR. To the
southwest of the boundary, the air mass is very warm/moist and
extremely unstable with dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s and MLCAPE
values over 4000 J/kg. Vertical shear is not particularly strong,
with the INX VAD profile showing 25-35 kt winds through the mid
levels, but given the high instability and the proximity to the
outflow boundary, a few rotating updrafts will remain possible
through the early evening. These early cells will be capable of
locally damaging winds, large hail, and even perhaps a tornado.=20
However, coverage of this activity is uncertain.

By mid evening, the low-level jet is forecast to strengthen which
may result in intensification. Also, convection over central KS
will approach from the northwest. For these reason, a watch will
likely eventually be needed for parts of the discussion area.=20
Trends will be monitored.

..Hart/Gleason.. 06/13/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5uHKUyRDllg3Tf_7ljFynVZDSVhI2wvgPs7jkigmJiCyQbkOxZ70e6AL2vt78yH8nZq4ufieH= _xs2heufuiOsPbRzxs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...

LAT...LON 36059499 36489589 36969613 37259550 37049413 35889320
35429327 35699444 36059499=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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