ACUS11 KWNS 132055
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132055=20
TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-132230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1127
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Areas affected...portions of northern Arkansas and the Mid-South

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 132055Z - 132230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a
brief tornado continues across portions of northern/eastern Arkansas
and will soon spread into western Tennessee and perhaps northern
Mississippi.

DISCUSSION...Convective coverage has increased over the past 1-2
hours along a remnant outflow boundary extending from far
southwestern Missouri into northern Arkansas and toward the
mid-Mississippi Valley. The predominant storm mode consists of a mix
of multicell clusters and occasional supercell structures. MRMS MESH
estimates have ranged up to 1.5" with some storms, with 1" hail
previously reported in northern Arkansas. Latest objective analysis
indicate this activity is approaching a relative maximum in
available buoyancy along the Mississippi River which could result in
some increase in the severe potential over the next 1-2 hours, with
the main risks being large hail and damaging wind gusts.

Some cells have also exhibited transient periods of enhanced
low-level rotation. Low-level shear remains weak ahead of the
remnant outflow boundary, with less than 50 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH sampled
by the NQA VAD. Thus, any potential for a brief tornado is likely to
be tied to any cell that can favorably interact with the outflow
boundary. With greater effective shear remaining displaced to the
north of the outflow boundary, uncertainty remains regarding storm
longevity and the magnitude of the severe threat. Trends will
continue to be monitored for potential watch issuance.

..Chalmers/Mosier.. 06/13/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4oo2BnQOR-bSycVyCo0RG7ojuRZyuXfXrXmANYeAPBGnDjI8Amu83ZLzHj0g7g3sD5jdM5Y_1= TTsQ76zWHUFcowZ3nU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON 35239268 35769327 36099341 36369343 36519340 36599329
36569310 36329243 36209195 36129138 36089101 36159056
36269024 36538974 36728940 36918917 36988903 37008887
36968865 36878841 36698821 36528814 36148803 35668807
35288827 34948859 34688914 34548961 34539028 34659133
34799185 35189260 35239268=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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