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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1126

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jun 13 20:42:27 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 132042
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 132041=20
    KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-132245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1126
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0341 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

    Areas affected...portions of southern/western Kansas into portions
    of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 132041Z - 132245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity is expected to develop along the
    front and spread eastward with time through the evening. Threats
    will include damaging wind and large hail.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is expected to develop along a
    southward moving cold front this afternoon/evening across portions
    of western Kansas into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. Initial
    activity has begun to develop across the far western Panhandles
    where profiles are deeply mixed. As a result initial activity has
    struggled to establish but lightning has developed over the last
    30-45 minutes.=20

    Ahead of the front, steep low to mid-level lapse rates (7-8 C/km)
    are spreading eastward with temperatures in the upper 80s to 90s.
    Warming temperatures and dew points in the mid 60s to 70s have
    yielded MLCAPE around 2500-3000 J/kg. Initial activity will likely
    be supercellular with potential for large hail and damaging wind
    before tendency to quickly grow upscale with the southward moving
    front. This will likely shift the main threat to become damaging
    wind. A watch will likely be needed to cover this potential.

    ..Thornton/Mosier.. 06/13/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!__cmWmwRS6DR_B7bPVhim2J2D94PfdlDzhbgG3p7eUeYrhzTiigI71tns2ODYb8omFWjFfT-k= lszOv-62vsqDq07tVk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

    LAT...LON 37020141 37640092 38559966 38989894 38919853 37729833
    37149879 36729950 36260007 35800083 35860137 36180178
    37020141=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)