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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1125

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jun 13 20:18:23 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 132018
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 132017=20
    MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-132215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1125
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0317 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

    Areas affected...southeastern Nebraska...southwestern
    Iowa...northern Missouri

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 132017Z - 132215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity to increase along the southward
    moving cold front. Initial supercells will be capable of large hail
    and damaging wind.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity will increase along the cold
    front this afternoon/evening spreading eastward through time.
    Surface objective analysis is likely underestimating the progression
    northward of better instability in the wake of the morning
    convection. 18z soundings from TOP and DVN suggest MLCAPE is
    spreading northward faster than advertised. Cumulus development is
    increasing near the intersection of a diffuse remnant outflow
    boundary to the south with the cold front further north. Development
    of storms is likely in this region and along the front through the
    evening.=20

    Given strong deep layer shear profiles (around 40-50 kts), initial
    development will likely be supercellular posing a risk for large
    hail and damaging wind. Through time as the front shifts south and
    east, tendency will be for upscale growth and a shift to more of a
    damaging wind threat. A watch will likely be needed to cover this
    potential.

    ..Thornton/Mosier.. 06/13/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6gLmauCwAJllYmu1-rzJ0R3lNQKwhf6RUkzAkBjfUy1kcm40COY_xOgAFv85fTwydqvVs-Pyr= uups7Co8ZTILVZ2g3g$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

    LAT...LON 39969768 39689829 39679851 39729881 39859882 40619831
    41169688 41549569 41709491 41409489 40489505 40059620
    39969768=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)