ACUS11 KWNS 131908
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131907=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-132130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1124
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Southeast

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 131907Z - 132130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms will bring a localized risk
for damaging downburst winds. Watch issuance is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations depict a hot, humid air
mass in place across the southeastern U.S., with temperatures in the mid-to-upper 90s F and dewpoints in the upper 60s noted along the
Atlantic Coast. Surface convergence along the sea breeze and a of a
roughly west-east oriented stationary boundary is supporting
isolated thunderstorm development as of 19 UTC, with additional
agitated cumulus noted on visible satellite imagery. As thunderstorm
coverage expands through the afternoon (particularly where low-level convergence maximizes over northeastern SC and southeastern NC),
steep low-level lapse rates and high PWAT contents (1.75-2.0") will
favor the potential for isolated strong to locally damaging
downburst winds. An instance or two of small hail may also accompany
the most robust cores that develop along the sea breeze. A lack of
greater effective shear will limit overall storm organization and
longevity, thus precluding a greater severe risk. Given this, watch
issuance is not anticipated.

..Chalmers/Mosier.. 06/13/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!49y99SQYfMqRWIGgksucg20dv-KJN17M8W-ao-zNP6EqqRSEbT8Q5_e3O_Z1ITmp_FRzwuyIp= 9FNQ0CpAr5HlqjGmwE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...

LAT...LON 33248117 33638083 34747966 34967935 35107901 35297836
35377793 35437759 35457700 35437671 35377652 35287638
35167632 34997638 34847652 34717672 34607693 34547720
34427745 34267768 34027780 33857792 33797822 33777852
33627874 33327902 33077923 32588000 32408028 32418062
32498092 32678114 32908128 33248117=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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