ACUS11 KWNS 271433
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271433=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-271630-

Mesoscale Discussion 0566
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0933 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Areas affected...Central Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 156...157...

Valid 271433Z - 271630Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 156, 157
continues.

SUMMARY...The potential for isolated damaging winds and large hail
is expected to continue beyond the scheduled 15z expiration of
Severe Thunderstorm Watches 156 and 157. A local extension in time
may be required.

DISCUSSION...As of 14z, mosaic radar imagery indicated a leading bow
echo over west-central IL with trailing, outflow-dominant convection
bisecting I-70 across central MO. The 12z Springfield, MO sounding
indicated a very moist low-level air mass with a pronounced capping
inversion at the base of an elevated-mixed layer characterized by
700-500-mb lapse rates of 8.5 C/km.

Latest short-term model guidance suggests that the ongoing, trailing
convection across central MO will linger beyond the scheduled 15z
expiration of WWs 156 and 157. However, currently it appears that
the cold pool circulation is not sufficiently strong to overcome the
currently capping in place. Furthermore, the largely parallel
orientation of the line to the mid/upper-level flow will limit the
damaging wind potential. Nonetheless, the presence of strong
low-level and deep-layer shear will maintain at least an isolated
damaging wind and/or hail threat this morning.

..Mead.. 04/27/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!90cP40UrV42LuT6GRriR9Pus-ywicMvpNIcxMpdqL_Fg7ReuNIKNc_drHlz_9vEb-pDuSoKvO= VYn20iPx8P7a8gju88$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON 37869439 38269444 38809293 39489177 39599062 38559023
38009041 37669279 37869439=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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