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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0557

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Apr 27 01:49:05 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 270149
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 270148=20
    KSZ000-OKZ000-270415-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0557
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0848 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

    Areas affected...Western Oklahoma...Southern Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 270148Z - 270415Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to increase over western
    Oklahoma and southern Kansas as the low-level jet rapidly
    strengthens over the next couple of hours. Severe storms with
    tornadoes, large hail and wind damage will be possible. Weather
    watch issuance will likely be needed.

    DISCUSSION...A very moist and unstable airmass is currently located
    from southwest Oklahoma northeastward into north-central Oklahoma.
    Over the top of this airmass, a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet is
    forecast to rapidly develop within the next 2 to 3 hours. In
    response, low-level moisture will begin to surge northward across
    west-central and northwest Oklahoma, and MLCAPE will increase
    markedly into the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. The strengthening
    low-level jet and combined with around 50 knots of westerly flow in
    the mid-levels will be very favorable for supercells.

    Concerning the potential for cell initiation, RAP analysis currently
    shows a 500 mb vorticity max in far eastern New Mexico. As this
    feature moves eastward this evening across the Texas Panhandle,
    large-scale ascent is expected to increase over western Oklahoma and
    southern Kansas. In response, isolated storm development will become
    possible. If cells can initiate, the environment will support large
    hail, wind damage and tornadoes.

    ..Broyles/Leitman.. 04/27/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4tdSey32EJlLNSeCpd73Q7xytE0v1zrLMXdOuh7xA-rWGNxQ2nhGCBBjB476kS8CrRDeW4HlY= feeO_36ujKn4LaCrFY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...

    LAT...LON 37739797 37769936 37429975 36939984 36159991 35079995
    34699983 34579957 34519906 34509860 34579826 34679794
    34899779 35419774 36759766 37399763 37739797=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)