ACUS11 KWNS 262201
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262200=20
OKZ000-270000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0551
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0500 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Areas affected...North-central and Northeast Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 262200Z - 270000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Convective initiation will be possible this evening across north-central Oklahoma. If this takes place, a tornado threat will
become likely. Tornado watch issuance is anticipated over the next
hour.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a very moist airmass in
place over much of Oklahoma with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s
and lower 70s F. A surface trough is oriented from southwest to
northeast across north-central Oklahoma, where low-level convergence
is maximized. Along this zone, satellite imagery shows an agitated
field of cumulus along the I-35 corridor in northern Oklahoma. To
the east of the trough, the air is very unstable with the RAP
showing MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. In addition, a strong
wind field is in place with 0-6 km shear estimated by the RAP to be
in the 35 to 45 knot range. While large-scale ascent does not look
to be strong near the surface trough, low-level convergence could be
enough to initiate convection at some point this evening. If this
where to occur, then rapid supercell development would be expected,
and a tornado threat would become likely. Large hail and severe wind
gusts would also be likely.

..Broyles/Leitman.. 04/26/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6iKBHXNeTKTtvUdYT0x2Jcap3l89FYFhQrBX794fJi1Tnm7S_JUeH8IEpla_fhodpnQM0SQ2t= Kr9EMDFZfKO7_YJouw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 36989591 36849528 36529508 36279509 36009522 35899582
35909748 35899817 36069853 36329864 36719855 36999816
36989735 36989591=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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