ACUS11 KWNS 262025
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262025=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-262230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0550
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Areas affected...Portions of southwestern Oklahoma and western north
Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 262025Z - 262230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for rapid severe thunderstorm development is
being monitored across western north TX and southwestern OK.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface observations show a trough/dryline
extending southwestward from near Lawton, OK to Haskell, TX. A
narrow, though deepening, cumulus field is apparent in visible
satellite imagery along this boundary. Very warm and moist surface
conditions are present ahead of this dryline, with temperatures in
the low 90s and dewpoints in the low 70s yielding extreme
instability ~4000 J/kg MLCAPE. Although mid to upper-level ascent is
currently lacking, continued enhanced surface convergence along the
dryline, increasing westerly flow aloft through this evening, and a
colder pocket of mid to upper-level air may aid in convective
initiation before 6 PM as peak heating is reached.

In addition to the highly buoyant airmass in place, 50-55 kt of
orthogonal effective bulk shear will support discrete supercells and
a threat of very large hail and perhaps a tornado, especially if any thunderstorm can remain near the convergence axis through this
evening as the LLJ intensifies (200-300 m2/s2 SRH). Conditions will
continued to be monitored for convective initiation, and a watch may
be needed if this occurs.

..Barnes/Guyer.. 04/26/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8QNT9F0OEuxoDf_Rir81uBZAhRX6GAJTNDtnfHkFO8Mea4vrZsqHzBvG_Bj2w1749XW3E1tZx= mcw-jP_oYux7dIpKM0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 34889847 34489866 33779925 33519955 33149961 32969958
32929913 33049864 33349834 33659811 34119799 34479790
34759787 35049808 34889847=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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