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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0181

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Mar 9 20:22:00 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 092021
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 092021=20
    GAZ000-ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-092145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0181
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0321 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026

    Areas affected...portions of northern Alabama and Mississippi into
    southern Tennessee

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 092021Z - 092145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind/hail continues across Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch 29. Downstream watch issuance will likely be
    needed by 21 UTC.

    DISCUSSION...An ongoing cluster of thunderstorms across portions of
    northern Mississippi and southern Tennessee will continue to pose a
    risk for severe hail/wind over the next few hours as it tracks
    eastward along a surface warm front. South of this boundary,
    continued low-level moist advection amidst filtered diurnal heating
    has yielded increasing buoyancy. Coupled with increasing mid-level
    flow ahead of a subtle mid-level shortwave trough, the potential
    continues to exist for some intensification with this cluster as it
    progresses eastward. The greatest potential for intensification is
    expected along the southern periphery of the cluster in close
    proximity to the surface warm front where 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and
    35-45 kts of effective bulk wind shear will continue to support the
    potential for some embedded supercell structures along with a risk
    of severe wind/hail with stronger updrafts. With time, a modest
    strengthening of a southerly, low-level jet may also support the
    potential for an isolated tornado. While trends remain a bit
    uncertain, a downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be
    needed in the next hour.

    ..Chalmers/Thompson.. 03/09/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5o1jj9fXzJqcWCcT2rjjmSYwYxpkAmfVpgBF6aNWacPN-7Pnz2BpjnG6FomK4gD3DZXNnhtGc= aViI3J6atHzutL8Xws$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

    LAT...LON 33398604 33458666 33628764 33788823 33918861 34098880
    34388884 34698873 34918852 35008832 35108781 35138724
    35058681 34938626 34798573 34608543 34458535 34208519
    33898516 33598530 33428561 33398604=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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