ACUS11 KWNS 091812
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091812=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-092015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0180
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Areas affected...Parts of LA into southwest MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 091812Z - 092015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple strong to severe storms may pose a risk of
damaging gusts, marginal hail, and perhaps a localized/brief tornado
risk.

DISCUSSION...Within a zone of broad/weak low-level warm advection in southern/central LA, diurnal heating amid lower 70s dewpoints is
aiding in destabilization and removal of inhibition. As a result, a
modest uptick in thunderstorm strength and coverage has occurred
over the last 30 minutes or so. While the lingering inhibition and
generally weak large-scale forcing for ascent cast uncertainty on
thunderstorm intensification/longevity, around 30-40 kt of effective
shear (stronger with northward extent) and small clockwise-curved
low-level hodographs may support a couple loosely organized storms
through the afternoon. The stronger/longer-lived storms will pose a
risk of locally damaging gusts and marginally severe hail, though
the moist boundary layer and low-level streamwise vorticity may
support a localized/brief tornado risk as well. Current thinking is
that the severe risk will remain too localized for a watch, though
trends are being monitored.

..Weinman/Thompson.. 03/09/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-WvDGRxzrRZQLI3XyfNhUNZc9ZXa5FZgEm5tm4-r2oBnt6NAPBdwYS_jlhMUCst6FtY_JufYI= E0x9Z3aT89AU30WOLA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 30829390 31129382 31549363 32029315 32569198 32579101
32429025 32158998 31858993 31489003 31009053 30439229
30389313 30509363 30829390=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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