ACUS11 KWNS 091332
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091332=20
ARZ000-OKZ000-091500-

Mesoscale Discussion 0178
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0832 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Areas affected...Parts of southern Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 091332Z - 091500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Risk of severe hail and perhaps locally damaging gusts
will continue spreading eastward across southern Arkansas into this
afternoon. A watch will be issued shortly.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of elevated splitting supercells is ongoing
across far southeastern OK this morning, which is being aided by
large-scale forcing for ascent ahead of a low-amplitude midlevel
impulse and broad/weak low-level warm advection. As the impulse
continues eastward, these storms (and additional development) will
continue eastward across southern AR into this afternoon. Around 40
to 50 kt of midlevel flow (per nearby VWP) and steep midlevel lapse
rates will favor large hail with primarily elevated supercells.
Diurnal heating may eventually support surface-based storms, with an
increase in the damaging-wind risk, as this activity continues
eastward. A watch will be issued shortly for southern AR.

..Weinman/Thompson.. 03/09/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!76HCZfbKVaqXspnF7PdsaKqE1_xX1zmVuOZvMmm6Iwgo6udG8CQPXNie-uGwBij5gnk2z3m-M= To8s7PGC6C1j_iRnyM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON 33439378 33779431 34199478 34719459 34919416 34929358
34699231 34349166 33839141 33249162 33239241 33439378=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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