AWUS01 KWNH 051612
FFGMPD
ARZ000-OKZ000-051730-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0033
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
800 AM EST Thu Mar 05 2026

Areas affected...Southeast OK...Far Western AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051300Z - 051730Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms across southeast OK are
expected to persist through mid-morning. Given high rainfall rates
of up to 2 inches/hour and the slow cell-motions, some areas of
mainly urban flash flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...The early morning GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
rather compact, but slow-moving cold-topped MCS over southeast OK.
Some cloud-top cooling has been noted over the last couple of
hours which suggests some deepening/strengthening of the
convective updrafts and this has been corresponding to an uptick
in rainfall rates.

In fact, the latest MRMS data shows rainfall rates near 2
inches/hour with the stronger storms over portions of Pittsburg
and Latimer Counties, and there have been some clear signs of
back-building cell activity around the southwest flank of the
convective mass. The early-morning satellite imagery is showing
some increasingly agitated CU/TCU across southern OK to the
southwest of the convection, and this is correlated with a
convergent low-level jet of around 40 kts in close proximity to a
stationary front.

The thermodynamic is generally modest with PWs of around 1.3 to
1.4 inches and MUCAPE values of only 500 to 1000 J/kg. However, a
wave of low pressure is noted in surface observations along this
front near the area of most organized convection. Given the
focused area of moisture convergence around this low center and
the low-level jet aiming into the southwest flank of the MCS,
there appears to be an environment to at least sustain the
convection in the near-term.

Morning CAMs are not doing the greatest with this MCS, but the
latest RRFS guidance is generally the best with overall placement.
However, it does suggest some convective persistence through at
least the mid-morning hours. Given the convective trends, an
additional 2 to 4+ inches of rain may be possible locally across
areas of southeast OK, and especially with a favorable environment
for back-building and training convective cells. The RRFS and some
06Z HREF guidance suggest some parts of far western AR may
eventually see some of this activity as well.

Expect a concern for mainly urban flash flooding as a result over
the next few hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4R6iCeI4LmUCaA5NzmFE9j-z2RPshOwLEWmKlicx_OB1_aZJ1YiUdTOF3ArjrFdHW0hV= Ywwb_p2vB3ikXFsa4onSyOM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35279546 35269464 34999407 34489415 34329513=20
34419639 34779679 35139644=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 052344
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-060542-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0034
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
642 PM EST Thu Mar 05 2026

Areas affected...portions of northwest TX & western OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 052342Z - 060542Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms should become more numerous
with time from Northwest TX across portions of western OK. Hourly
amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 4" are possible, which could
lead to isolated to widely scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...A deep layer trough lies across the West, with a
subtle preceding shortwave just ahead of the main feature across
portions of West TX, southeast NM, and the TX Panhandle. The
combination of these incoming features is attempting to break a
weak mid-level cap across the region, which has led to isolated
shower and thunderstorm development. Precipitable water values
are ~1.25", ML CAPE is 1500-2500 J/kg, and effective bulk shear is
35-45 kts.

With time, the cap breaks which should lead to increased shower
and thunderstorm development near and poleward of where an area of
850 hPa confluence intersects a warm front, with the zone of
low-level confluence slowly veering with time. The 12z ARW and
18z hi-res NAM are amongst the wettest guidance, showing a 3-4"
maximum somewhere near the border of northwest TX and southwest
OK. Given the ingredients above, hourly amounts to 2.5" with
local totals to 4" are possible, lending some credence to their
solutions. Cell training, cell mergers between more and less
organized convective activity, and mesocyclone formation are
expected to be the drivers for heavy rainfall. These amounts
would exceed flash flood guidance on an isolated to widely
scattered basis, and be more problematic in urban areas within the
region. Used the 12z REFS & 18z HREF heavy rain signal to help
define the MPD outline.=20

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!67chU8hr6wglojF9XFQcZQZ5f9RgUFP6UaatT-G40IV2BLK7d0_fXfjDMO7OIFxTB6fM= CRPmLUTn0hyH2IY20_YBaEM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37019878 36389723 34339850 33749996 34510128=20
35760070=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 060916
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-061500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0035
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
415 AM EST Fri Mar 06 2026

Areas affected...IA into northern IL and far southern WI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060911Z - 061500Z

Summary...Isolated to widely scattered coverage of mainly minor
flash flooding will be possible across central/eastern portions of
IA into northern IL and the IL/WI border through 15Z (9 AM CST).
Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches will be likely where training of
heavy rain occurs with isolated rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches
possible.

Discussion...Regional radar imagery at 0845Z showed elevated
thunderstorms over central and southern IA, with a general motion
toward the northeast. The storms were located at the nose of a
50-60 kt 850 mb jet seen on area VAD wind plots over central to
eastern KS, located north of a wavy warm front which extended from
southeastern NE into north-central MO and south-central IL. The
low level jet was rapidly transporting low level moisture into the
region, along with MUCAPE values of 500-1500 J/kg toward the
northeast. Brief training of cells has supported observed rainfall
of 0.75 to 1.25 inches in 30 minutes near the central MO/IA border
between 07-08Z, showing the potential for locally high rainfall
totals if cell training is able to maintain over a location for 30
to 60 minutes. A strengthening 90-100 kt upper level jet streak
was also observed on GOES East DMVs centered over southern MN,
placing IA within the favorable right-entrance region.

While the magnitude of the low level jet is likely near peak and
RAP forecasts show some weakening through 12Z across eastern KS,
continued warm advection driven thunderstorms are likely to
advance downstream into portions of southern WI and northern IL
over the next 3-6 hours as low level moisture continues to advect
downstream and upper level support increases. Low level
convergence axes at the nose of the low level jet are not
favorably aligned to support longer duration training of cells
with the mean steering flow from SW to NE (roughly at right angles
to larger convergence axes), but increasing cell coverage could
allow for some brief training from SW to NE or WSW to ENE this
morning. The potential for 1 to 2 inches of rain in an hour and 2
to 3 inches in 2 to 3 hours would surpass area-wide flash flood
guidance values which are relatively low.

Therefore, a couple of instances of lower-end/minor flash flooding
will be possible over the next few hours with impacts mostly
likely where overlap of heavy rain occurs with urban locations or
other poorly draining areas.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8D9mYBbu0Iq8zqihAoDjR-bFNkrufn_JFv79UQULt56TOnftIXCqBoWPO1IsavPTsjBc= DUeLvMO8mcRND-sJY_TvDLY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...FSD...ILX...LOT...MKX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43049341 42899151 42709019 42548867 41818832=20
41308877 40739090 40779355 41449517 42199543=20
42869482=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 062212
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-070410-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0036
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
510 PM EST Fri Mar 06 2026

Areas affected...northeast TX into eastern OK, western AR, &
central MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 062210Z - 070410Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are broadening in coverage
across southeast OK. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with local
totals to 4" are possible, which could lead to isolated to widely
scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms are increasing in number
across southeast OK and southwest MO as mid-level capping erodes.=20
The OK activity in particular is near the intersection of a
surface trough and an effective warm front. ML CAPE is 1000-2000
J/kg, effective bulk shear is 40-55 kts, and precipitable water
values are ~1.4". Water vapor imagery implies a weak disturbance
is over the convection at the present time, with other shortwaves
aloft approaching from the west and southwest. Thunderstorms are
occurring on both sides of a cool wedge of air across central to
northeast OK left behind by morning stratus/rainfall. The
mesoscale guidance is struggling with the breadth of the coverage
and the location, with the 12z REFS a few hours too delayed and
the 18z HREF 1-2 hours delayed in this area.

The GFS-based Galvez-Davison Index implies a convective uptick in
coverage and intensity most centered in northeast TX, eastern OK,
and northwest AR through 00z before activity wanes at 03z or so,
which also matches the timing of the HREF/REFS convective
evolution. Considering the parameters above, mesocyclones are
expected. Hourly rain amounts up to 2.5" should be possible near
mesocyclones and where convection of different levels of
organization haphazardly merges, with local totals up to 4"
possible. Cell training is also possible as the deep layer flow
is fairly unidirectional out of the south-southwest. This flow
veers slightly with time which should allow for a slight eastward
shift and would theoretically limit even higher totals. The 18z
hi-res NAM and 12z ARW are on opposing sides of the guidance
spread, but at the moment, the 18z NAM appears to be doing
somewhat better. The guidance all appears too wet in northeast TX
at the present time, but given the incoming shortwaves from the
west and southwest, additional convection is possible in that area
at some point. Isolated to widely scattered instances of flash
flooding are possible, particularly in urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5hXn_qD-Chh8OyMtbaonMLdCxO41R6d7gNxlB2gNo1GmXoX83zp-vlXgwgPFLCDSp6aR= x6q6_iWDZP02x1MvXegThV0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...FWD...ICT...LSX...LZK...OUN...SGF...SHV...
SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39029383 38769202 36599238 33899435 32109697=20
31739900 33089868 34639827 35959795 36139782=20
37599547=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 062230
FFGMPD
MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-070128-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0037
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
529 PM EST Fri Mar 06 2026

Areas affected...northeast IL, northwest IN, and southwest Lower
MI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 062228Z - 070128Z

Summary...A mesoscale wave is attempting to hold up convection
from in and near Chicagoland into southwest Lower Michigan.=20
Hourly amounts to 2" and local totals to 4" are possible, which
could lead to flash flooding in urban areas.

Discussion...A mesoscale convective wave across central IL is
beginning to hold up convection in northeast IL rather close to
Chicago. Precipitable water values are near 1.3", ML CAPE is
1000-1500 J/kg, and effective bulk shear is 35 kts.

The concern is that heavy rainfall will occur over a portion of
Chicago's urban area, which includes far northeast IN. Some of
southwest MI may see cell training as well. This situation does
not appear to be handled well by recent mesoscale guidance. The
parameters suggest hourly amounts to 2" with local totals to 4"
are possible, which would be a problem in urban areas from a flash
flooding perspective over the next several hours.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5wtNSRhaJZ0b-AkHJXJPRJ-g52HW4bwZseH-lj-Q-xnH-Roh6js4fiYsVibky7S7LO4F= 2MsfA3vV46HJbvhEzA2vAMk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRR...ILX...IWX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42598593 41578648 40758845 40648918 40878939=20
41018930 41548830 42178709=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 062256
FFGMPD
ILZ000-070152-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0038
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
555 PM EST Fri Mar 06 2026

Areas affected...portions of Central IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 062252Z - 070152Z

Summary...A weak wave across western IL is holding up convective
progression across central IL. Hourly rain amounts to 2" with
local totals to 4" are possible, which would be a problem in urban
areas.

Discussion...In the wake of a mesoscale convective wave moving
into north-central IL, the system's convective tail is being held
up by a weak wave seen in the thermal field across western IL.=20
Hourly rain amounts are up to 1.5" per radar estimates. ML CAPE
of 1000-1500 J/kg lies to its south, effective bulk shear is ~35
kts, and precipitable water values are ~1.4".

It appears cell training in this region could last for 2-3 hours.=20
In this time, hourly amounts to 2" with local totals to 4" are
possible, which would be most problematic in urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_cu3PDWDwuxUiKwxwzpex5n8GbOkxAy35vzo6ex4qu-gnai0fFMgebW8YOLYV_NLTWJN= BYzCADTNScwVUB8N0-NjP98$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40828877 40488805 39888912 39629031 40388936=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 070055
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-070654-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0039
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
754 PM EST Fri Mar 06 2026

Areas affected...in and near Iowa

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070054Z - 070654Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are developing across portions
of Iowa which have recently received heavy rainfall. Widely
scattered occurrences of flash flooding are possible over
partially saturated soils and in urban areas.

Discussion...The leading edge of an upper low over the West is
pushing across portions of Nebraska and southeast SD at this time.
Elevated showers and thunderstorms have begun to blossom near a
surface low due to the difluent flow aloft ahead of this feature.=20 Precipitable water values are just over 1". MU CAPE of 500-1500
J/kg lies across IA along with effective bulk shear of 30-65 kts.

Moisture should increase further across IA with time, with
precipitable water values eclipsing 1.25" in some areas.=20
Sufficient instability should be available to keep convection
going well into the overnight period. Hourly rain amounts up to
2" are possible where mesocyclones form, cell training occurs, and
where lesser and greater organized convection merges. Local
totals should stay at or below 3". The flow noticeably veers as a
front progresses eastward, which should limit overall totals.=20
However, given recent saturation, hourly rain amounts could be
sufficient to exceed the low flash flood guidance values seen
across a good portion of IA. Widely scattered flash flood
occurrences are possible through 07z, both over partially
saturated soils and within urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8t-DVljKG8AePntYFJXiFaWqOUul6m6NleTEz-6TA7k68JCDan_Ut9hsSHGs-VWS4Bj3= Z1QII3DY3X-BNzoIM31_5yM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...EAX...FSD...MKX...MPX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43709310 43369042 41699019 40319259 40109486=20
40619596 42499611=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 070430
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-071000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0040
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1129 PM EST Fri Mar 06 2026

Areas affected...northeastern OK, southeastern KS, northwestern AR
into southwestern/central MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 070428Z - 071000Z

Summary...Training of thunderstorms from northeastern OK into
central MO and adjacent portions of southeastern KS and
northwestern AR is likely to result in at least isolated to widely
scattered areas of flash flooding over the next 3 to 6 hours.
Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected, but isolated 2+ inch
per hour rainfall will be possible.

Discussion...At 04Z, a line of thunderstorms was observed on area
radar imagery from northeastern OK into southwestern and central
MO, with a history of training and peak MRMS-derived hourly
rainfall just over 2 inches between Tulsa and Pryor, OK, just
south of I-44. This line has been established for a few hours now
and has resulted in a region of rain-cooled air being overrun by a
40-60 kt low level jet. The SW to NE orientation of the line,
matching deeper layer steering flow has resulted in areas of
training, but the line of storms has shown some eastward
translation over the past hour or so. Farther south, additional
convective development has increased over southeastern OK, within
weakly confluent low level flow, and is advancing northward into
the southern extent of the aforementioned line in northeastern OK.

Areas of training are ongoing from northeastern OK into
southwestern MO, and this is likely to continue in the short term.
While overall eastward movement is expected, the most likely area
for training storms will be along the southwestern flank where the
low level jet intersects the line. Meanwhile, 1000 to 2000 J/kg
MLCAPE extended from the MOKSAROK intersection into central OK,
ahead of a cold front/dryline extending SSW from eastern KS into
west-central OK. A line of thunderstorms is expected to become
better established as the cold front continues to sweep
southeastward through 09Z, eventually bringing another round of
locally heavy rain to portions of northeastern OK. While this
second round of storms is expected to remain progressive, up to an
additional inch or so of rain will add onto locally heavy totals
from the initial round of thunderstorms ongoing. At least isolated
instances of flash flooding will be possible with locally
scattered coverage possible.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9_C8PkJrA_Owm1xEsyOiWlev0uastmEwoOXMM7o6CzP4SIXhGqA7dVgZGWKsVHZsllej= U5my1FNm5afr5JQ-qT0xemg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38429281 38409202 38259130 37739134 37089182=20
36399277 35569413 35209490 35179550 35409584=20
35779609 36279599 36849542 37479443 37879367=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 070551
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-070920-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0041
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1250 AM EST Sat Mar 07 2026

Areas affected...IA/IL/WI junction into southern WI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070547Z - 070920Z

SUMMARY...Training of heavy rain with 1-2 inches per hour may
produce localized flash flooding from the IA/IL/WI tri-state
region into southern WI through 09Z.

DISCUSSION...Local radar imagery over southern WI showed the
presence of an MCV or at least a northern bookend vortex about 30
miles NW of Madison, WI. The motion of this feature was toward the
ENE at a rapid pace of 40-50 kt. A strong low level jet of 40 to
70 kt (70 kt @ KDVN at 0504Z) was helping to rapidly transport
rich low level moisture to the north where it intersected a
southwestward extending line of storms from near the MCV center.

Forecast motion of the MCV takes it into central Lake Michigan
within the next 3-4 hours but there could be areas of training
along the axis of thunderstorms flanking the southwestern quadrant
of the circulation, with 1 to 2 inches per hour despite limited
MUCAPE of ~500 J/kg. While recent hires models do not have a good
handle on this feature, short term observational trends and
extrapolation indicate the best potential for training from the
IA/IL/WI tri-state region into southern WI with potential for 1 to
2 inches of rain in about an hour through about 09Z. Given 3-hr
flash flood guidance values below 2 inches across the region,
minor flash flooding will be possible, especially if there is
overlap with any urban locations.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_CbYSD-aj5mdLKSEPKlqZHichx8ffHHTjA6qAX6Jpx9_NZ16baOGfYA71z2Dj4NN2LoQ= znJ-AGHq9Ali2DPmnbzgfoY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43858844 43808755 42798771 42398875 42168975=20
42249059 42509082 42869048 43508957=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 070956
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-071530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0042
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
455 AM EST Sat Mar 07 2026

Areas affected...northeastern TX/southeastern OK into AR and
southeastern MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070955Z - 071530Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding will be possible across portions of
northeastern TX, southeastern OK into AR and southeastern MO
through 15Z. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches will be common
within cell training, but isolated 2+ inch per hour rainfall
cannot be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...The coverage of showers and thunderstorms has been
gradually increasing from northeastern TX into western/central AR
over the past hour, ending 0940Z. The continued transport of low
level moisture into the region and perhaps some weak low level
confluence has contributed to the recent increase as low level CIN
decreases. Meanwhile, a line of thunderstorms was located to the
west, along a NE to SW oriented cold front, analyzed from a GMJ to
ADH to DYS line at 09Z. The environment from southeastern OK into
central AR consisted of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, 1.4 to 1.6 inch
PWATs and sufficient effective bulk shear values for organized
storms, per SPC mesoanalysis data.

At least a modest increase in the coverage of cells is expected to
continue from far northeastern TX into western/central AR over the
next few hours with some degree of continued moisture advection
beneath diffluent flow aloft. The environment will continue to
support a line of thunderstorms along and ahead of the cold front
as it continues to advance southeastward, reaching southeastern OK
by 12Z and central AR by 15Z. As thunderstorm coverage fills in
from southeastern OK into central AR, cell mergers and training
potential will increase. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches will be
common where cell training occurs and isolated 2+ in/hr rainfall
values will also be possible. Peak storm total rainfall of 2 to 4
inches should be expected through 15Z which could produce isolated
to widely scattered instances of flash flooding. Below average
precipitation experienced over much of the region over the past
few weeks may act to mitigate flash flooding to urban overlap or
otherwise poorly drainage locations.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!572Q3M5-9eW4h4Gdt6dqk8Vs-JAifHlJSFikncaokp8cFUECJNgx_bLRNBSaimpMRnR2= _ZLxbaqeT_K0mBGqvi_BF_A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LSX...LZK...MEG...OUN...PAH...SGF...SHV...
TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37099014 36168967 35189033 33709311 33439515=20
33819637 34829581 36089355 37029134=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 071944
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-080100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0044
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
243 PM EST Sat Mar 07 2026

Areas affected...Northern LA...Central MS...Adj. Portions of SE AR
& E TX...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 071945Z - 080100Z

SUMMARY...Progressive convective line likely to be limited in
duration but will intersect/merge with precursory slower moving
cells along the western Gulf return moisture axis. Widely
scattered 2-3.5" in 2-3 hours pose low-end possible incident or
two of localized flash flooding through evening.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic and GOES-E imagery suite depict
a forward propagating convective line with numerous cells
developing along the forward flanks sliding east-northeastward
through the deeper layer steering flow allowing for some stronger
thunderstorms to linger for near an hour before pressing southeastward/redeveloping. Solid mid to upper 60s Tds and near
.8-.9" of PW through the lowest layer and totaling near 1.7"
across the Lower MS Valley; and solid lapse rates given 2000+ J/kg
of MLCAPE support fairly efficient rainfall production given
strength of flux (on 30kts of southerly inflow). This helps to
support 1.5-1.75"/hr rates and similar totals, but again, also
supports solid forward propagation vectors to limit duration.=20

Overall FFG values (2-2.5"/hr 3"/3hrs), especially given dry
recent conditions are not likely to be eclipsed by this alone;
though intensity forecast by the HRRR of 1-1.25"/15 minutes would
not likely infiltrate the harder upper soil column, greater
rainfall totals still are needed to result in even localized flash
flooding conditions.

CIRA LPW along with VWP notes, strong low level moisture return
off the western Gulf into along a sharp western edge of the 850
ridge axis over the US Southeast. This has resulted in a fairly
consistent pre-frontal convergence axis along this western Gulf
moisture stream. RAP moisture convergence shows a weaker but
sufficient moisture convergence axis in the vicinity of the
Mississippi River. Remote sensing shows this convergence has been
successful in developing scattered thunderstorms across E LA/W MS
with a slower northeast cell motion likely to intersect with the
approaching boundary. These will eventually merge, likely
broadening the updraft, moisture flux and therefore rates in the
short-term result in enhanced spots or streaks of 2-3.5" total
rainfall in 1-2 hours as they pass. This still remains on the
lower end of the FFG, so resultant flash flooding will be remain
widely scattered and likely lower-end remaining possible across
the area of concern through evening.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!49yzUqznTyi1UYmqoEk1AtTQlzvgALOEibaJmiq4eAEASUmVdZ-PmMN60cXl1m_Dr3Jv= 7T659iZnAQoypftrDRTPYng$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33688954 33598878 33238852 32768843 32108876=20
31408948 31059057 30979114 30999241 31259380=20
31789434 32479385 32789329 33199171 33399093=20
33579029=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 071420
FFGMPD
TNZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-072000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0043
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
919 AM EST Sat Mar 07 2026

Areas affected...Northeast TX...Northern LA...Southern & Eastern
AR...Western TN...Northwest MS...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 071420Z - 072000Z

SUMMARY...Scattered to widely scattered streaks of 2-3" totals in
1-2 hours along favorable confluence and training convective lines
suggest localized flash flooding is possible through late
morning/early afternoon.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts a highly dynamic environment
across the central U.S. with and exiting stronger northern stream
wave across the Great Lakes providing a broad entrance region
through the Mid-MS River Valley while a more subtle wave over the
Big Country of TX has provided a subtle split jet feature
providing solid downstream divergence aloft across the area of
concern stretching from NE TX through the Delta Region. A stream
of mid-level moisture is exiting from this shortwave along a
surface to boundary layer WAA regime across the Red River Valley.=20
GOES-E Visible imagery shows some breaks along/ahead of the
shortwave and weak surface reflection with best backed low level
flow providing strong moisture flux convergence and convective
development near KTKI/KGVT moving south-southeastward slowly.

Solid 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE exist through eastern TX to
maintain/feed these cells and with 35-40kts of southerly flow
intersecting the outflow boundary, isentropic ascent may allow for
downstream cells developing eastward. Deep layer flow should
allow for some short-duration repeat/training. A slight reduction
in overall moisture may limit overall rates, but over 1.5"/hr
should support some localized spots/streaks of 2-3" in 1-2 hours
before propagation southward limits overall totals. Slightly
higher FFG across E TX/N LA may further limit overall coverage but
localized flash flooding remaining possible.

Further northeast, the window appears to be closing for longer
duration, multiple rounds of thunderstorms as cold front is
starting to make a push eastward through the MS Valley; one,
cutting off the overall moisture totals along the 50+ LLJ streak
but two, reducing duration of heavy rainfall. Still, regional
RADAR mosaic and GOES-E Visible still shows a few southwest to
northeast moving showers/thunderstorms pre-frontally across E AR
with some TCU across north-central LA where the western edge of
the western Gulf moisture stream is occurring.

RAP/HRRR analysis shows deep layer convergence remains on this
axis before becoming confluent with the surging convective line.=20
The combination rapidly increases convective cooling as noted in
central AR over the last hour or so, shows the merger/combination
supports an hour or two of enhanced 1.5-2"/hr rates and localized
streaks of 2-3" in less than 2 hours. These intersections are
fleeting in duration but newer ones will be expected downstream
into W TX/NW MS and N LA as the overall system slides eastward and
convective line has positive southeasterly propagation vectors.

Any intersection with urban centers will likely present the
greatest flash flooding risk, but overall scattered to widely
scattered flooding remains possible through the late morning/early
afternoon across the area of concern.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!545MGXyZ_Ssl0BwFngKQPyaPOyUKXGCDNCyBov6WUEtoGs63xVol7-GKwX4uoJ6LGlZp= 3j5rXkygC2DvKdJg_MpFBI4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...JAN...LZK...MEG...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36219006 36128862 35228840 34138878 33228950=20
32689032 32199196 31999355 31919515 31929641=20
32209683 32869673 33259606 33399536 34529244=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 072049
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-080247-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0045
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
348 PM EST Sat Mar 07 2026

Areas affected...portions of Southeast TX & Southwest LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 072047Z - 080247Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to become more
numerous across southeast TX and southwest LA over the next
several hours. Hourly amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 4" are
possible, which would be most problematic in urban areas.

Discussion...A frontal wave is becoming more pronounced in the pressure/wind/thermal pattern across southeast TX, which has been
shifting southward as of late. It is tapping a corridor of higher
dewpoints between the Middle TX Coast and Southeast LA, where
there are in the lower 70s. Precipitable water values of 1.5-1.7"
lie in and just south of this region. ML CAPE of 500-2500 exists
in this area. Effective bulk shear is 25-40 kts, and increasing.

The combination of higher dewpoints in the region and increasing
effective bulk shear should result in convection with increasing
coverage and increasing organization, which will ramp up hourly
rain amounts. The frontal segment east of the frontal wave is
likely to propagate slower than other segments of the boundary,
which is expected to be the more likely focus for the heaviest
rains. The main threats from a heavy rain standpoint are cell
mergers between convection of various levels of organization,
mesocyclone formation, and short periods of cell training as the
flow is nearly unidirectional with height from the southwest.=20
Hourly rain amounts up to 2.5" with local totals to 4" appear
possible in this environment. The RRFS, which can bias high,
shows a 10-20% chance of 5" amounts in the 21z-03z window. Due to
ongoing drought, widely scattered instances of flash flooding are
possible, more likely in urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8y-uNwIF0JZLmrqRcYDFGhiCq7zaQew6VfU_eEyPWTLoxZfoOHqdnVXpWd8_XUzItEVx= oKzK7k_hNNWECZysLs6MTHU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32059397 31349310 30019400 29609587 29889696=20
31169596=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 072120
FFGMPD
TXZ000-080048-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0046
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
419 PM EST Sat Mar 07 2026

Areas affected...portions of South-Central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 072118Z - 080048Z

Summary...An incoming mesocyclone and elevated thunderstorms out
ahead of it with some backbuilding character could yield hourly
amounts to 2.5" and local totals to 4" across South-Central TX
over the next few hours. Flash flooding is more probable in urban
areas.

Discussion...A frontal boundary is edging southward across the
region, with more southward sag east of San Antonio than from the
city westward. Showers and thunderstorms with occasional
backbuilding character are near and behind this front. To the
west, northwest of Sabinal, a mesocyclone is progressing eastward
elevated over the front. Precipitable water values of 1.4-1.7"
lie here. ML CAPE is ~ 2000 J/kg, and effecitve bulk shear of
30-50 kts is helping to sustain the mesocyclone.

Radar reflectivity trends indicate the possibility of backbuilding
and cell mergers with the incoming mesocyclone as the main causes
for heavy rainfall over the next few hours. Hourly amounts to
2.5" with local totals to 4" appear possible here given the
available ingredients, which would be most problematic in urban
areas due to ongoing drought conditions.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!95fFyTL52dXOxSaiUekZeNloeGDcLbzhxoPwcUc5rXUAcYdhD3gVJ53nK76zuXCBB5W6= QtPNf0JkpsockHL8hCfeISY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30089917 29859665 28959664 28989790 29169900=20
29469982 29849988=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 072350
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-080600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0047
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
649 PM EST Sat Mar 07 2026

Areas affected...northwest & north-central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080000Z - 080600Z

Summary...Heavy rainfall concerns continue in the vicinity of a
front sinking through the region. Hourly amounts to 2.5" with
local totals to 4" could lead to flash flooding, primarily in
urban areas.

Discussion...A wavy front continues to settle southward towards
the north-central and northwest Gulf Coast. Precipitable water
values in the region are 1.3-1.7" per GPS data. Effective bulk
shear is generally 25-50 kts, with the associated field sinking
southward with the boundary. ML CAPE is 1000-3000 J/kg. The deep
layer flow is generally out of the southwest. The above
parameters support organized convection, and at times
thunderstorms have organized into a linear or clustered
appearance. Cell mergers have been common where 850 hPa inflow
has shown some confluence in the Lower Mississippi Valley, while
attempts at cell training have occurred north of Houston as of
late. Mesocyclones have been present at times within the
convective pattern. Backbuilding has also been seen at times.

The mesoscale guidance suggests two main areas where heavy
rainfall is preferred through 06z -- from far southeast TX through
southern LA into southern MS, with a secondary maximum across the
Brush Country of interior South TX. Based on the ingredients
present, hourly rain amounts to 2.5" and local totals to 4" remain
possible in these areas wherever cells merge, train, backbuilding
occurs, or mesocyclones track. Much of the region is in long term
drought so the three hour flash flood guidance values are rather
high, in the 3-4" range. Urban areas appear most threatened by
upcoming heavy rains. Flash flooding is considered possible.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6_31B0A2GaDp9yCuMrNtL1m7q3KSwVjiLETYDH5rg0VPMfyao5QAgd6DbBitCdCKZlUb= hTOn8LQy_SPD5O7JrtCkJ7Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...BRO...CRP...EWX...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...
MOB...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33128827 32318749 30788773 29878893 29439145=20
29329399 28539567 26859715 26289912 27299997=20
28349995 29679852 31229470 32299144 33048981=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 080602
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-081000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0048
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
101 AM EST Sun Mar 08 2026

Areas affected...Gulf Coast from Galveston Bay to western FL and
southwest AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080559Z - 081000Z

Summary...The threat for flash flooding will linger across
portions of the central Gulf Coast from near Galveston Bay to the
western FL Panhandle and southwestern AL for at least another 3-4
hours. Hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches will be most common within
axes of training, but localized 2+ in/hr rates are also expected.

Discussion...0530Z radar and surface observations showed a wavy,
elongated outflow boundary that extended from Galveston Bay into
southwestern AL. MRMS showed the highest hourly rainfall values
from south-central LA into southwestern AL with a range between 1
and 3 inches. 05Z SPC mesoanalysis showed MLCAPE along and south
of the outflow boundary of 500-1500 J/kg and PW values of 1.5 to
1.9 inches where cold tops continued to periodically cool on
infrared satellite imagery. 850 mb winds varied across the Gulf
Coast region but were generally between 15-25 kt from the S to SW,
supporting overrunning. Aloft a low to mid-level shortwave trough
axis was seen from central AL into south-central LA, tracking
eastward beneath strongly diffluent and divergent flow aloft,
within the right-entrance region of a 120+ kt upper level jet over
the MS Valley to the north.

The elongated outflow boundary is likely to continue slowly
advancing south and southeast over the next few hours, eventually
pushing south of a majority of the LA/MS coast while warm/moist
air continues to overrun it from the south. Areas of training are
likely to continue in the short term, but should become less
widespread through time. This will be as the low-mid level
shortwave and the upper level jet max advance toward the E/ENE,
weakening and shifting large scale ascent away from the LA/MS
coast. Diffluence will remain pronounced over the Gulf Coast
however, so there is some potential for more isolated thunderstorm
development back to the west, near the upper TX coast where the
outflow boundary may continue to linger just inland of the Gulf
Coast.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4nu5WEY2EOHy9lm9_7pVs8y7KZABMIuguyQaAk-lfeCccbqg5K9lhz5T_Xf26cuwoZUi= eeDl8XTGzGH9ED8YkRwGY9w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32618773 32518715 31938687 30888711 30108764=20
29828838 29708944 29539053 29469202 29429360=20
29109447 29279516 30029517 30359423 30739214=20
31049025 31378932 31988841=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 081002
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-081400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0049
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
501 AM EST Sun Mar 08 2026

Areas affected...Upper TX Coast into Southwestern LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081000Z - 081400Z

SUMMARY...Isolated flash flood potential will exist along the
upper TX coast into southwestern LA through 14Z. Training of heavy
rain could support 1 to 3 inches per hour

DISCUSSION...Area radar imagery at 0945Z over TX/LA continued to
show scattered thunderstorms from near Galveston Bay into portions
of southwestern LA. 09Z surface observations showed these storms
were located north of an outflow boundary that extended from
Galveston Bay into the northern Gulf, south of the TX/LA border,
and then eastward, hugging the LA coast into southeastern LA.
Stronger, quasi-organized cells, were located along the northern
extent of MLCAPE, estimated to be 500-1000 J/kg via 09Z SPC
mesoanalysis data. The instability was present from the middle to
upper TX coast to just south of I-10 in southwestern LA.

850 mb winds were from the SSW to SW via area VAD wind plots at
10-20 kt and are forecast by the RAP to maintain a similar
intensity over the next few hours. Low level flow overrunning the
outflow boundary with cell motions oriented roughly parallel to
the boundary were allowing for a locally increased training
potential. Flow aloft remain rather diffluent which will aid lift
across the region. The environment is capable of supporting hourly
rainfall of 1 to 3 inches per hour which could result in a
isolated flash flooding, however, low coverage of these higher
rainfall rates should limit the flash flood threat.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4IA2jrZhvNStomp_AhBZ8AQvQrtrc0aoxCuonFMDq7iY9EuCAfyQcm__EMm6XPiSUR1H= pDe3-TDmu6LMs3JBUF9qU1M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 30729289 30489231 30129198 29509200 29329247=20
29409357 29189442 29059518 29539561 30279496=20
30649372=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 081237
FFGMPD
TXZ000-081700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0050
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
736 AM EST Sun Mar 08 2026

Areas affected...South-central Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081235Z - 081700Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving cells capable of 1.75"/hr rates near the
Southern Balcones Escarpment/San Antonio Metro may pose localized
flash flooding concerns through mid-morning.

DISCUSSION...EWX RADAR and GOES-E 10.3um EIR continue to show
increasing coverage and cooling top/intensifying thunderstorms
across south-central Texas. Return weak southerly moisture flux
over the shallow cold front across Deep South Texas combined with
favorable divergence in the exit/diffluence of upper-level jet max
has enhanced scattered early morning shower activity into
deeper/broader updrafts capable of intense rainfall. VWP at EWX
combined with RAP analysis suggests a recent uptick in 850-700mb
flow to 15kts, but generally into the northern limit to the weak
isentropic ascent providing this additional convergence to
generate/expand convective activity. CIRA LPW shows sfc-850 and
850-700mb tight moisture gradient indicative of the shallow front
with values near .8-.9 and .5" respectively. The loading of this
1.5 to 1.75" total PWat into the cells has increased rainfall
efficiency to support 1.5-1.75"/hr rates, especially the broader
cell in Bexar county, which also shows solid suggestion of upwind redevelopment.=20

Deep layer steering driven mainly below 700mb has more of a slow
northward shift within broadly westerly flow, which is also nearly
parallel to the moisture/flux gradient. This may allow for short
periods of repeating to allow for hour plus duration or random training/repeating from upstream cells too. Spots of 2-3" are
possible in 1-2 hours though the mid-morning (through 15-17z)
until favorable jet divergence slides further eastward/weakens as
well.=20

Proximity to San Antonio Metro/broad urban center and Balcones
Escarpment will likely be the greatest driver of flash flooding
potential. Naturally low FFG along/north of the city with hourly
values between 1.5-2" are well within the potential of low-end
exceedance and suggestive of localized possible incident or two of
flash flooding, especially if combined with hydrophobic urban
setting, further compounding run-off potential. Though south of
the escarpment across the sandier Coastal Plain, FFG values
increase rapidly and therefore flooding risk would be considerably
lower, but still non-zero.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9tzj-zTZ90x2te8mwPXgbDHtrsqYx0S_4Cjxoj7kTw-4gQaI7vWu40Z0j9hJOpsjHCDG= UFRr_SquB34e9DYxpbqy-ek$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 29999741 29759663 29389614 28909595 28569640=20
28349786 28389910 28619953 28919971 29259965=20
29649922 29919843=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 081702
FFGMPD
TXZ000-082130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0051
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1201 PM EST Sun Mar 08 2026

Areas affected...South-Central Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081700Z - 082130Z

SUMMARY...Risk of low-end, widely scattered incidents of possible
flash flooding continue for a few more hours. Localized rates up
to 2"/hr

DISCUSSION...Surface to 850mb analysis shows the shallow cold air
remains in place across the Coastal Plain of South Texas with
surface north/north-easterlies across nearly all of the state.=20
However, onshore flow has veered a bit toward southeast continues
to isentropically ascend across the front which is banked up along
the coast itself. Northeasterly flow through 925mb at EWX
combined with recent CIRA LPW in the Surface to boundary layer
level align to denote the moisture gradient aligns with
directional convergence. MUCAPEs have modified slightly since
this morning, but remain with pockets of values nearing 1500 J/kg
to support the stronger vertical ascent for these scattered
thunderstorms. Divergence aloft continues to be fairly solid in
the weak split in the upper-level sub-tropical jet streak; but the
upstream ridging is increasing and advecting eastward in WV
showing the favorable environment will continue to shift and
eventually diminishing through the evening as it reaching the
central TX coast toward Victoria, TX

Longer trend animation shows the 925 to 850mb just east of Rio
Grande River near/centered around Cotulla; though WAA extends
through 700mb before veering sufficiently for nearly west to east
steering flow. This effective bulk shear nearing 50+kts along
with RADAR animation shows updrafts have modest rotation to
further isallobarically increase moisture flux convergence to
broaden the updrafts increasing rainfall efficiency. Bunker's
right mover propagation vectors allow for the more eastward
deflection and slowing of forward motions to allow for increasing
overall rainfall duration. Given total flux of the 1.75" at
10-15kts through the low levels as increased rainfall efficiency
in these cells toward 2"/hr with occasional localized upticks to
2.5". As such localized streaks of 2-4" are starting to form and
near the longer/higher FFG values (3-4"/3hrs). As such,
localized flash flooding remains possible though likely remain
widely scattered to scattered in overall coverage with overlap
into urban centers resulting in the greatest flash flood
potential.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!87kuqhY-PHOB8lpVdiEFATdF6AtIQzNEIP7IVPmpoLZjcG8lbRy0R0e63zzRLJHC7FVb= a5iY9d4hrVl9oZFkS6e-Snc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 29749720 29629635 29379606 28989601 28599622=20
28279687 28189739 28099840 28169892 28469928=20
29019937 29509900 29739809=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 091713
FFGMPD
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-092230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0052
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
112 PM EDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Areas affected...Central & Eastern AR...Southwest TN...Northern
MS...Northwest AL...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 091715Z - 092230Z

SUMMARY...Broadening upstream redevelopment of
showers/thunderstorms with potential for increased
training/repeating through afternoon. Rates increasing from 1 to
1.5"+/hr with 2-3" totals over wet upper-soils posing localized
possible flash flooding risk this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...GOES-WV suite depicts a small and fairly compact
roll-up vortex/shortwave over north-central OK shifting ENE along
interface of strong zonal westerlies to the north and increasingly
flattening sub-tropical stream across TX. This sub-tropical jet
speed max at 70kts has left exit divergence favorably aligned over
AR at this time helping to support/maintain initial convective
activity into a broader complex. RADAR and EIR shows the leading
edge of the convection has seen an uptick in activity/cooling as
the cluster further expands into a weak bow like forward
propagating MCS. The positive dPVA from the approaching shortwave
is maintaining solid 40+ kts of west-southwesterly LLJ that slowly
continues to veer with bulge of enhanced total PWats up to 1.7"
interfacing with the upwind edge of the cluster. This will
continue to support upwind flanking redevelopment on the
isentropic moisture flux convergence (as noted with some weaker
elevated development across Yell/Logan and Johnson counties at
this time.

RAP analysis along with GOES-E Visible imagery shows increasing
clearing downstream east of the MS River and with slightly higher
surface moisture; instability is starting to climb over 1000 J/kg
perhaps reaching 1500 J/kg over the next few hours to further fuel
the leading convective cells. Given the strength of moisture
convergence, rain-rates will increasing from near 1"/hr currently
toward 1.5"-1.75"/hr over the next few hours. As the inflow
veers, and some weak divergence in the deeper layer steering flow
across MS into AL, propagation should deflect southeastward a bit
increasing the potential for the flanking development to
repeat/train across east-central AR along and south of the TN/MS
border (in proximity to an old eroding stationary front).

As such, an axis of 2-3" totals are probable. Recent moderate to
heavy rainfall has increased soil saturation over the last few
days with current NASA SPoRT LIS 0-40cm ratios around 60-65% or
slightly above normal. As such, increased run-off is possible and
may result in possible localized flash flooding (as FFG values
1.5-2"/hr; 2-3"/3hrs).=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7dAQwJKs4_u-8TvD6FLNcw5R__R8vOGlBxm4jPVMHErZbzOT0GBX90SS_B4FdjH9Z3XP= 52NByVPw9jnWkB0J219ny5k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...LZK...MEG...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35629295 35619178 35439024 35058830 34578749=20
33778780 33468887 33619089 34059281 34709372=20
35369357=20

=3D =3D =3D
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