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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2224

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Nov 24 21:47:57 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 242147
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 242147=20
    LAZ000-TXZ000-242315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2224
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0347 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

    Areas affected...portions of eastern Texas into extreme western
    Louisiana

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 638...

    Valid 242147Z - 242315Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 638 continues.

    SUMMARY...Isolated tornadoes remain possible this afternoon and
    evening.

    DISCUSSION...A round of supercell structures, with a history of
    producing a tornado, has since diminished, with storms percolating
    in intensity along and ahead of a surface cold front. At the moment,
    it is unclear if storms will remain weak or if an uptick in
    intensity (with increased tornado potential) will occur over the
    next few hours. Nonetheless, the warm sector remains buoyant to the
    south of a warm front, characterized by 1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE driven
    by 70s/upper 60s F surface temperatures/dewpoints beneath 6+ C/km
    mid-level lapse rates. Furthermore, 20Z mesoanalysis shows 60+ kt
    southwesterly 500 mb flow overspreading a 30-40 kt southerly
    low-level jet, contributing to 50-70 kts of effective bulk shear and
    sizeable elongated/curved hodographs with 200+ m2/s2 effective SRH.
    As such, a conditional tornado threat persists if storms can
    organize, especially near the warm front, where low-level shear is
    maximized.

    ..Squitieri.. 11/24/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!68RuDfVPp2b0aviZd1e40OEGp0t8f1q7StBvFnNPZVh8bZdLq3FdBkG3gFKR9_xY-yH6SuhDM= _3dkE_lkov1lx3vIdA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

    LAT...LON 30239665 31649605 31989571 32289498 32409440 32359391
    32179361 31689345 31009361 30309399 30049448 29829509
    29719548 29659584 29739613 30239665=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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