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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2222

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Nov 24 16:21:24 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 241621
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 241620=20
    TXZ000-241745-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2222
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1020 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

    Areas affected...portions of southeast into and east-central Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 241620Z - 241745Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across portions of
    southeast into east-central TX. All severe hazards are possible,
    including at least isolated tornadoes.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage and intensity
    within a low-level confluence band within the free warm sector. The
    16Z mesoanalysis shows the approach of a mid-level trough over far
    west TX, which should provide increasing upper-support for
    thunderstorm development through early afternoon. Meanwhile,
    adequate insolation is contributing to boundary layer
    destabilization ahead of an approaching surface cold front. Surface temperatures are already warming into the 70s F, with upper
    60s/lower 70s F dewpoints gradually spreading north-northeast across
    central into eastern TX. Currently, MLCAPE west of the Houston metro
    is reaching the 1500-2500 J/kg range within the moist axis, as 7+
    C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreads the region. Deep-layer and
    low-level shear appears strongest closer to the nose of the better
    moisture plume (i.e. the warm front), and this is expected to remain
    the case through the afternoon.

    The current thinking is that ongoing warm sector storms may continue
    to fluctuate in intensity with boundary layer destabilization,
    assuming they do not outpace the better moisture. Large hail and
    damaging gusts will be possible with the stronger storms. The best
    chance for tornado development will be with the more discrete storms
    that can parallel the warm-frontal regime. It is unclear precisely
    when storms will peak in severity. However, given the increase in
    convective trends, a Tornado Watch issuance may eventually be
    needed.

    ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 11/24/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!68rafcFgjyeUM3YBJKtKN94adV6Jzdc5MCzwbsP4_Rqgbi2BzZ3rrusq7CDmJgnoWRBHOV4vA= sxusGI8H-URPIzkqRE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

    LAT...LON 29719760 30999708 31519598 31629507 31559422 31349373
    31109358 30769366 30319382 29959434 29529515 29309583
    29139644 29109694 29189720 29719760=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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