ACUS48 KWNS 220856
SWOD48
SPC AC 220854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Tue - Southeast...
A cold front will continue east across the Southeast on Tuesday as a
surface low deepens across the Upper Midwest. This strengthening
surface low, will sharpen the cold front during the day as it
advances east. Weak to potentially moderate instability is expected
across MS/AL ahead of this cold front. Mid-level flow will
strengthen through the day and provide ample deep-layer shear for
storm organization. A few supercells capable of isolated large hail
may be possible. A focused zone of severe weather potential likely
exists from central Mississippi to northern Alabama, but
probabilities are not high enough to warrant a 15% contour at this
time.

...Day 5/Wed - East Coast...
As this cold front continues east on Wednesday, low 60s dewpoints
will continue to advect northward ahead of the cold front.
Instability is forecast to remain mostly weak across the Carolinas
and into eastern Virginia on Wednesday, but given the strong wind
field, some damaging wind gusts may be possible.

High pressure will bring a dry/cool airmass to much of the eastern
CONUS by the end of next week which will limit severe weather
potential.

Southerly return flow is forecast to resume by next weekend which
could eventually lead to renewed severe weather potential across
portions of the Southern Plains and eventually the Southeast.

..Bentley.. 11/22/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 230959
SWOD48
SPC AC 230958

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The warm sector will be onshore at the beginning of the period
D4/Wed from the Southeast coast to the Carolinas. This may permit a
few thunderstorms along the cold front early Wednesday before the
front moves into the Atlantic. In the wake of this front, cool, dry
air and high pressure will build across much of the central and
eastern CONUS. This will result in minimal thunderstorm
activity/severe weather potential Thursday and Friday.

By next weekend, return flow will resume across the southern Plains
and thunderstorm chances will increase. Most guidance shows a large
trough across the western CONUS by the end of the weekend and into
early next week, but the orientation, size, and timing of this
trough remains uncertain. Severe weather potential will likely
return at some point given the approaching trough and inland
moisture intrusion, but uncertainties are too high for severe
weather probabilities at this time.

..Bentley.. 11/23/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 240906
SWOD48
SPC AC 240905

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0305 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm activity should be minimal Thursday and Friday as high
pressure ushers in a cool, dry airmass across much of the eastern
CONUS. By late Friday night, return flow across Texas may lead to
some weak destabilization and thunderstorm chances.

Severe thunderstorms are possible Day6/Saturday to Day8/Monday
across the southern Plains as the warm sector expands across Texas
and mid-level trough amplifies across the western CONUS. Evolution
of this mid-level trough remains uncertain. The GFS, AIGFS, and
EC-AIFS all suggest a slower evolution of the trough with a deeper
closed low across the Southwest. However, the operational ECMWF is
more progressive and would actually suggest an end to severe weather
potential by Monday with offshore flow across the Gulf Coast once
again. At this time, the consensus pattern for a slower, more
amplified trough seems most likely, especially given that previous
12Z and 00Z ECMWF model runs preferred this solution as well.

Severe thunderstorms will be possible with this preferred pattern,
but uncertainty in the evolution of the mid-level trough and timing
preclude severe weather probabilities at this time.

..Bentley.. 11/24/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 250902
SWOD48
SPC AC 250901

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0301 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm potential should be limited during the day on D4/Friday
with high pressure and a dry, continental polar airmass across much
of the country. By Friday night, return flow across Texas will
strengthen as a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet develops. This may
result in some weak elevated thunderstorms late Friday night and
early Saturday.

...D5/Sat to D8/Tue...
Severe thunderstorms may be possible from the southern Plains to the
Gulf Coast this weekend and into early next week. Mid to upper 60s
dewpoints are expected either onshore or close to onshore by this
weekend. However, evolution of the mid-level pattern remains quite
uncertain. This mid-level pattern will largely dictate the timing
and inland penetration of richer low-level moisture and instability.
Therefore, broad severe weather potential exists Saturday to
Tuesday, but more specific timing or intensity information is not
available at his time due to the large uncertainties.

..Bentley.. 11/25/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 260852
SWOD48
SPC AC 260850

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A progressive upper air pattern is expected through the remainder of
this week into the middle of next week, with multiple mid-level
troughs poised to develop and amplify while progressing across the
CONUS. This pattern will support cooler temperatures across the
northern half of the U.S. through the extended period, resulting
stable low-level conditions and limited potential for thunderstorm
development. However, the passage of multiple mid-level troughs will
result in surface low development, accompanied by moisture return
and at least some thunderstorm potential across the southern Plains
into the Southeast on a few occasions.

First, a surface low will rapidly translate from the southern Plains
to the Great Lakes on Day 4/Saturday, becoming displaced from the
moisture axis with time. Before departing the southern Plains, an
appreciable fetch of low-level moisture will become established over
the Sabine River Valley ahead of a surface cold front. It is
plausible that at least a few strong to potentially severe
thunderstorms could develop. However, the rapid departure of the
surface low will reduce deep-layer ascent, with storm coverage
ultimately in question (hence no severe probabilities being
introduced at this time).

Medium range guidance consensus has the next in a series of
mid-level troughs amplifying over the southern Plains, which may
support surface low development somewhere over the Lower MS Valley
early next week. Should this occur, isolated strong to severe storms
cannot be ruled out along the Gulf Coast. However, the development,
track, or evolution of the surface low is currently unclear in the
guidance, warranting the withholding of severe probabilities for
now.

..Squitieri.. 11/26/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 270954
SWOD48
SPC AC 270953

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A progressive upper pattern will overspread the CONUS next week,
ushering in multiple rounds of surface high pressure across the
western, northern, and eastern CONUS. Thunderstorm development
should thus be limited over much of the U.S. through the extended
forecast period. One exception may be portions of the Gulf Coast
early next week. By around Day 6 (Tuesday), medium-range guidance
depicts a pronounced mid-level trough amplifying over the Middle MS
Valley, supporting surface low development along the southeast Gulf
Coast. Seasonal low-level moisture may advect a few hundred miles
inland from the coast, ahead of the surface low. If this occurs,
isolated severe thunderstorms may develop along the warm front.
However, timing and placement of the surface low differs too much
among medium range guidance for the introduction of severe
probabilities this far in advance.

..Squitieri.. 11/27/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 280851
SWOD48
SPC AC 280849

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A progressive upper-air pattern will prevail over the CONUS through
next week, supporting multiple rounds of surface high pressure
overspreading the Interior West, Great Plains, OH Valley, and much
of the Northeast. Static stability will limit thunderstorm
development over most locales. However, a couple instances of
surface low development are possible along the Gulf Coast this
upcoming week, which may support thunderstorm development as
seasonably rich low-level moisture returns inland, beneath
deep-layer ascent.

A surface low may first traverse the Gulf Coast on Day 5/Tuesday,
with a few strong thunderstorms possible along the warm front
(assuming adequate buoyancy can materialize). A similar pattern of
surface low development and progression along the Gulf Coast may
also occur on Day 8/Friday, with thunderstorms also possible.
Nonetheless, questions about the timing and track of the surface
lows, and the degree of instability preceding them, warrant the
withholding of severe probabilities for this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 11/28/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 290932
SWOD48
SPC AC 290930

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A broad mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while another
mid-level trough gradually progresses across the CONUS this upcoming
week into next weekend. A surface low will rapidly track from the
southeast Gulf Coast, northeastward along the Eastern Seaboard Day
4/Tuesday, supporting thunderstorm development along the Southeast
Coast and the FL Peninsula. Thereafter, surface high pressure and
associated static stability should limit thunderstorm development
over most locales until late in the week into the weekend. By this
point, moisture return across the western Gulf Coast region may
foster enough buoyancy to support thunderstorm potential. It is
plausible that strong to perhaps isolated severe thunderstorms may
develop over the TX Coastal Plain in the Days 6-7 (Thursday-Friday)
time frame if the moisture can become rich/deep enough to support
greater buoyancy. However, the lack in medium-range guidance
agreement lends too little confidence in this scenario for the
introduction of severe probabilities this far in advance.

..Squitieri.. 11/29/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 300934
SWOD48
SPC AC 300932

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A series of mid-level troughs will progress across the central and
eastern CONUS this week, which will usher in surface high pressure
and associated cold, stable air for much of the northern, central
and eastern CONUS to the end of this week. By around Days 6-8
(Friday-Sunday), the passage of a mid-level trough across the
central Plains into the TN Valley may encourage surface low
development along the Gulf Coast. Here, enough moisture return is
anticipated for a chance of scattered thunderstorms. Medium-range
guidance hints at the possibility of a high shear/low CAPE parameter
space shaping up along the Gulf Coast during this time frame.
However, details on the exact placement of features, such as the
surface low or warm front, differ too much among medium-range
guidance members for the introduction of severe probabilities for
now.

..Squitieri.. 11/30/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 010839
SWOD48
SPC AC 010837

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A series of progressive mid-level troughs, embedded in broader
west-northwest to east-southeast flow aloft, will aid in reinforcing
multiple rounds of surface high pressure across most of the CONUS,
with static stability limiting thunderstorm development over most
locales. There is the chance that ahead of some of the high pressure
surges that some low-level moisture could advect inland from the
Gulf. Should this occur, at least isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will be possible. Compared to earlier medium-range
guidance, some of the most recent guidance has diverged in agreement
of a more robustly buoyant airmass advecting inland through this
weekend into early next week. As such, it currently does not appear
that an organized severe threat will materialize in the Days 4-8
period.

..Squitieri.. 12/01/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 020845
SWOD48
SPC AC 020844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 AM CST Tue Dec 02 2025

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Multiple mid-level troughs, embedded within a broader northwesterly
flow regime, will progress across the CONUS through the remainder of
the week into early next week. Multiple rounds of surface high
pressure will reinforce a cool, stable airmass across most of the
CONUS, limiting thunderstorm potential through the extended forecast
period. Thunderstorms could develop over FL during the Days 4-6
period (Friday-Sunday) as low-level moisture moves ashore. However,
the severe risk appears very low this weekend.

..Squitieri.. 12/02/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 030807
SWOD48
SPC AC 030805

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 AM CST Wed Dec 03 2025

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Multiple mid-level troughs will traverse the CONUS while translating
within a broader west-northwest to east-southeasterly upper level
flow regime through the Days 4-8 period. Periodic bouts of surface
high pressure will reinforce a statically stable, cool and dry
airmass across most of the CONUS, limiting thunderstorm development.
One exception will be with the Gulf Coast states early next week,
when a surface low preceding one of the embedded mid-level troughs
will encourage onshore flow from the Gulf. Should this occur, enough
buoyancy will be in place (along with deep-layer ascent) to support thunderstorms. However, buoyancy may be too weak to support a severe
threat.

..Squitieri.. 12/03/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 040844
SWOD48
SPC AC 040843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 AM CST Thu Dec 04 2025

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A series of mid-level troughs will progress across the CONUS within
a broader west-northwesterly to east-southeasterly upper flow regime
next week. The orientation of the upper flow will support multiple southeastward surges of cooler, statically stable air, and prevent
appreciable moisture return from the Gulf to the CONUS. An overall
quiescent severe weather pattern is predicted for the Days 4-8
period, though a few occasional rounds of isolated thunderstorms are
possible along the Gulf Coast, where at least scant moisture-driven
buoyancy may reside.

..Squitieri.. 12/04/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 050909
SWOD48
SPC AC 050908

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0308 AM CST Fri Dec 05 2025

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance indicates that at least modestly amplified
mid/upper ridging will continue to build and be maintained across
the Pacific coast into the Rockies through next week. Within the
northwesterly flow downstream of this feature, several digging short
wave perturbations appear likely to reinforce large-scale troughing
across the eastern U.S., while also contributing to occasional
surface cyclogenesis from the lee of the northern Rockies through
the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. However, these are not
likely to be accompanied by a strengthening southerly return flow
emanating from the Gulf Basin. Regardless, in the wake of a
reinforcing cold intrusion across much of the Florida Peninsula, and
through much of the Gulf Basin, early next week, it appears that
boundary-layer modification over the Gulf will not become conducive
to appreciable inland low-level moisture return.

..Kerr.. 12/05/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 060907
SWOD48
SPC AC 060905

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0305 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Downstream of an increasingly prominent blocking high evolving near
and to the north of the Aleutians, it appears that the large-scale
mid/upper flow pattern may not appreciably change, aside from
perhaps some amplification, across North America into next weekend.
Models indicate that large-scale mid/upper ridging will generally be
maintained across the Pacific Coast through Rockies, with downstream
troughing across the Mississippi Valley into western Atlantic.

Short wave developments within this regime are forecast to lead to
another notable intrusion of cold/dry air to the lee of the Rockies,
through much of the Southeast and Gulf Basin, late this coming week
into next weekend. It appears that this will occur before Gulf
boundary-layer modification, in the wake of the prior cold/dry
intrusion, can become potentially supportive of a substantive moist
return flow.

..Kerr.. 12/06/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 070850
SWOD48
SPC AC 070848

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...
After becoming suppressed a bit, medium-range guidance indicates
that a blocking high may become more prominent again, near/north of
the Aleutians late this coming work week into next weekend.
Surrounding developments across the mid- and higher latitudes of the
Pacific do become characterized by increasing spread. However, it is
not yet clear how much impact this will have on downstream flow
across North America. It still appears that an increasingly
confluent northwesterly mid-level regime, between persistent ridging
across the eastern Pacific into western North America and downstream
troughing, may support the development of another expansive surface
ridge east of the Rockies into the Gulf Basin and Atlantic Seaboard
late this week through next weekend. This is likely to further
impede deep boundary-layer moistening over the northwestern Gulf.
Coupled with the lack of a developing southerly return flow from
the Gulf Basin until at least early next week, it appears that
generally stable conditions will be maintained through this period.

..Kerr.. 12/07/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 080927
SWOD48
SPC AC 080925

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Downstream of a prominent blocking high, which may be maintained
near/north of the Aleutians vicinity through this period, latest
medium-range output suggests that flow across the mid-latitude
Pacific through North America may trend less amplified by next
weekend into early next week. Relatedly, guidance is becoming more
unclear how impactful cold air, initially building to the lee of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies by late this week, will be in terms
of drying across the northern Gulf Basin, as it noses
south/southeastward in one or two surges through the remainder of
the period.

It now appears at least a bit more of a possibility that a weak to
modest elevated, if not boundary-layer based, Gulf moisture return
could occur on a developing southerly return flow, across parts of
the northwestern Gulf coast into southern Great Plains next weekend
into early next week. This could promote destabilization supportive
of a risk for thunderstorm development. However, with surface
cyclogenesis appearing unlikely to the lee of the southern Rockies,
the potential for severe weather appears low in the presence of
limited large-scale forcing for ascent and vertical shear.

..Kerr.. 12/08/2025

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