AWUS01 KWNH 211245
FFGMPD
CAZ000-211830-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1239
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
744 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

Areas affected...Southern California

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 211245Z - 211830Z

SUMMARY...Risk of slow moving, narrow updrafts capable of
.75"-1"/hr rates likely to continue to a few more hours. Isolated
1-2" totals in/near urban locations in SoCal suggest localized
flash flooding remains possible.

DISCUSSION...A well-defined closed low is parked directly over
southern California with an upstream highly anomalous
shortwave/vorticity center descending southward along the western
periphery of the low. This and favorable cyclonically curved
geography of the coast and mountain ranges will help to keep
surface to boundary layer cyclone relatively stationary for the
next few hours just along/south of Long Beach, CA. The cold front
and associated warm conveyor have pressed eastward into far NW
Baja California (state) of Mexico before angling through Imperial
Valley and lower Colorado River Valley. However, the western
branch of the TROWAL and occluded front remain banked up against
the Orange county and San Diego county beaches.=20

GOES-W WV suite shows the core of the upper-level jet remains
south near the San Diego country border with Mexico, allowing for
solid cyclonically curved left exit ascent across much of SoCal
providing solid ascent for updrafts that do develop with the solid
surface/low level moisture convergence. The limiting factor will
likely be unstable air/vertical ascent through convective
processes. MUCAPEs have dropped to around 500 J/kg but are now
mostly driven through cold advection aloft. The upstream
shortwave will dull this advection for a few hours but may allow
the lapse rates to maintain this weak 250-500 J/kg instability.=20=20
As such, updrafts are likely to remain isolated and generally
narrow, though with isallobaric response to the updraft, moisture
convergence should allow for the .75-.9" total PWats (loaded
mainly below 700mb) to support rates of .75-1"/hr.=20

As such, a localized 1-2" total still remains possible for the
next few hours. Naturally low FFG and/or urban hydrophobic
conditions will result in solid run-off and maintain a risk of
widely scattered incident or two of possible flash flooding
through the morning.=20=20

It is also possible (more likely toward 16-18z) that a few
showers/cells may try to develop with some weak clearing through
the Imperial Valley along the western branch of the TROWAL. These
cells would be also similarly slow moving but likely translating
NW rather than NE as with the coastal cells; but there is less
certainty with that evolution and a secondary MPD may be required
if trends continue to improve.=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6defLsDhQO-ON-LqODLd4v4g66xlCixSbO2_VOxQBeCuFq2HkSlxnEp1Y3e9UPBfwxAh= InmHHKSqNelNU_uwQNCMueQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOX...SGX...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34551850 34481788 34071704 33471650 32801624=20
32581627 32531672 32561724 32981753 33301781=20
33581827 33971908 34331893=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 211331
FFGMPD
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-211930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1240
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
831 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

Areas affected...Inland Deserts of Southern California and Lower
Colorado River Valley...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 211330Z - 211930Z

SUMMARY...Prolonged moderate rain with embedded very weak showers
capable of .3-.5"/hr rates. Scattered 1-1.5" totals pose longer
duration flash flooding concerns (3-6hr exceedance).

DISCUSSION...GOES-W WV suite shows core of deep upper-low has
wobbled over the LA Basin, but a strong upstream shortwave along
the western periphery of the upper-level closed low is digging
sharply resulting an combined effect of tightening the overall
flow across the deep cyclone while keeping the downstream older
center stationary over the next 6-12hr. As a result, the core of
the Atmospheric River will remain focused on NW Baja California
before cyclonically turning (fairly sharply) through the Imperial
Valley into the Mojave Deserts back toward the Tehachapi Range and
southern San Joaquin Valley.=20

CIRA LPW prior to the local outage showed a fairly strong sfc to
850 and 850-700mb signal with 95th-99th percentile signals in each
layer, combine that with some increase in the surface to 850mb
layer from favorable southerly flow off the warm Sea of Cortez and
total PWats remain at or slightly above 1" into the Imperial
Valley and as high as .75" into the San Joaquin Valley. VWP and
RAP analysis suggest strong cyclonic curvature but also 20-30kts
of flux. So while there is sub-100 J/kg of instability, the
vertical ascent through the strengthening western branch of the
TROWAL suggests highly anomalous flux to maintain moderate showery
activity through the deserts. Rates of .33"/hr are more probable,
but an isolated rate of .5" is not impossible. Still, persistent
weakly banded features will result in tracks of 1-1.5" totals in a
3-6hr time period, so any isolated, enhanced vertical cell within
the core may result in quicker stream/arroyo rises. FFG values
being only .5"/hr and less than 1"/3hr and less than 1.5-2"/6hrs)
suggest a few scattered incidents of 'flash' flooding are
considered possible through early afternoon.

While less certainty, there are CAMs suggesting some filtered
insolation may be possible in the morning. Near zero inhibition
through the profiles, suggest embedded widely scattered convective
elements may evolve in the 16-19z time period, particularly closer
to the warmer heat source of the Sea of Cortez across the Lower
Colorado and southern Imperial Valley. Given the digging wave
upstream off the SW CA coast, upstream winds may be favorable for
some potential upstream redevelopment/back-building environment.=20
Will continue to monitor those trends for any additional MPD later
toward the afternoon.=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_-WjtQ6vmZP70V-mcQSPBPEHSb5UPtn6MaaXF4h2x6fY00XJ7ZrT2AvFASaI-gjDsv3r= 8Ao-f3IcG6w7HoujVkdzYxE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...PSR...SGX...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36451689 36001550 35231468 34241409 33061394=20
32331426 32491497 32691600 34241623 34841705=20
34971779 35591825 36151792=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 222300
FFGMPD
AZZ000-230458-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1241
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
559 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Areas affected...portions of central and southeast AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 222258Z - 230458Z

Summary...Convection continues to grow in coverage across portions
of central and southeast AZ. Hourly rain amounts up to 1" with
local amounts to 2" could lead to isolated to widely scattered
issues in arroyos/dry washes, burn scars, and box canyons.

Discussion...Infrared satellite imagery shows cooling cloud tops
in association with showers and thunderstorms across central and
southeast AZ within a region of 700 hPa confluence ahead of a
progressive deep layer low, with some recent uptick in coverage.=20
A first pixels of 0.5" an hour amounts were indicated recently
from the Phoenix and Tucson AZ radars in association with their
rainfall. Pockets of 500+ J/kg of MU CAPE exist across
west-central and southeast AZ per SPC mesoanalyses, with
instability increasing due to cooling aloft and some degree of
daytime heating/sunshine, particularly across southeast AZ.=20
Effective bulk shear of 30-50 kts exists here, which is leading to
an environment with both organized and ordinary convective cells,
with the organized activity edging east of due north while the
less organized storms move just west of due north. Precipitable
water values of 0.5-1" lie here. The atmosphere is cool, with
1000-500 hPa thickness values of 5550-5600 meters. When combined
with the available moisture, the column is approaching saturation.

The mesoscale guidance implies increasing convective coverage and
an increasing incidence of 0.5"+ an hour amounts over the next
several hours, with the 12z REFS and 18z HREF guidance suggesting
the heaviest rainfall in the 01-05z time frame. This could be due
to cell training, occasional mesocyclone formation, or cell
mergers between more and less organized convective activity. As
the upper level system continues marching northeast, winds should
veer somewhat which should allow convection to shift somewhat to
the east with time, with activity shifting increasingly into
mountainous areas. With hourly amounts to 1" and local totals to
2" possible, the incidence of impactful heavy rain is expected to
be isolated to widely scattered, mainly within arroyos/dry washes,
box canyons, and any area burn scars.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_11Dt4vgOR_QWohFX9tvKqdE6LGVpOCutmRvWnF-mQw0JNZV4L9ax5MtPUIq6Oi9tax_= f7aVUm8MLuTaLbjJuyltsFM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34911210 34811085 33170939 31640956 31201086=20
32061186 34001212=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 222307
FFGMPD
AZZ000-230459-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1241
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
607 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Areas affected...portions of central and southeast AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 222259Z - 230459Z

SUMMARY...Repeating and brief training of cells could result in
localized flash flooding across far eastern KY into WV and far
southern OH over the next few hours. Additional rainfall of 1-2
inches will be possible through 01Z, falling atop 1-2 inches of
rain which fell over the past 12 hours.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery and cooling cloud tops on GOES
East infrared imagery has shown an increase in rainfall intensity
across eastern KY over the past 2 hours, attributed to increasing
instability. Mostly clear skies located south of an outflow
boundary (located from south of SME, east-northeastward into
south-central WV between CRW and BKW) have allowed MLCAPE to
increase into the 500 to 1000+ J/kg range over southeastern KY as
roughly 30 kt of southwesterly 850 mb flow overruns the boundary.
Average cell motions have been fast with ~40 kt from the WSW,
limiting rainfall over any given location, but that rainfall has
been intense with 0.3 to 0.5 inches in 15 minutes observed.

A flash flood concern may expand eastward into WV through the
early evening as instability increases into the southern half of
WV, through the continued advection of low level moisture and at
least brief additional heating under clearing skies in southern
WV. Some backing of low level flow is forecast by the RAP and as
moist/unstable air continues to overrun the rain-cooled boundary,
additional storms are expected to form upstream in KY and advance
downstream into WV. There will likely be some repeating cells and
perhaps some brief training although uncertainty remains on the
degree of training into the evening. Given 1 to 2 inches of rain
which impacted western and central WV over the past 12 hours, an
inch or two of additional rainfall through 01Z may result in some
localized flash flooding atop sensitive grounds.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7t0SwD1cDQnVIZMQFVCK0VNmTmtrm9FjFvl4QTMcv2akeLdM5pIq9MnzgXiYy9DDoUdR= 8TJcSa0aciWXjO4Mxbq4g9k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34911210 34811085 33170939 31640956 31201086=20
32061186 34001212=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 222310
FFGMPD
AZZ000-230458-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1241
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
609 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Areas affected...portions of central and southeast AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 222258Z - 230458Z

Summary...Convection continues to grow in coverage across portions
of central and southeast AZ. Hourly rain amounts up to 1" with
local amounts to 2" could lead to isolated to widely scattered
issues in arroyos/dry washes, burn scars, and box canyons.

Discussion...Infrared satellite imagery shows cooling cloud tops
in association with showers and thunderstorms across central and
southeast AZ within a region of 700 hPa confluence ahead of a
progressive deep layer low, with some recent uptick in coverage.=20
A first pixels of 0.5" an hour amounts were indicated recently
from the Phoenix and Tucson AZ radars in association with their
rainfall. Pockets of 500+ J/kg of MU CAPE exist across
west-central and southeast AZ per SPC mesoanalyses, with
instability increasing due to cooling aloft and some degree of
daytime heating/sunshine, particularly across southeast AZ.=20
Effective bulk shear of 30-50 kts exists here, which is leading to
an environment with both organized and ordinary convective cells,
with the organized activity edging east of due north while the
less organized storms move just west of due north. Precipitable
water values of 0.5-1" lie here. The atmosphere is cool, with
1000-500 hPa thickness values of 5550-5600 meters. When combined
with the available moisture, the column is approaching saturation.

The mesoscale guidance implies increasing convective coverage and
an increasing incidence of 0.5"+ an hour amounts over the next
several hours, with the 12z REFS and 18z HREF guidance suggesting
the heaviest rainfall in the 01-05z time frame. This could be due
to cell training, occasional mesocyclone formation, or cell
mergers between more and less organized convective activity. As
the upper level system continues marching northeast, winds should
veer somewhat which should allow convection to shift somewhat to
the east with time, with activity shifting increasingly into
mountainous areas. With hourly amounts to 1" and local totals to
2" possible, the incidence of impactful heavy rain is expected to
be isolated to widely scattered, mainly within arroyos/dry washes,
box canyons, and any area burn scars.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-poSCiJYQEyoV4jMimyWuK08ybzHQY_GIPWcJWA0X1V9T6lRFwK8MhpkVkd7jpd8AvnV= Ow4HdefNJCTkabCRLzKUVSY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34911210 34811085 33170939 31640956 31201086=20
32061186 34001212=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 232355
FFGMPD
TXZ000-240552-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1242
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
653 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Areas affected...Edwards Plateau/Concho Valley in TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 232352Z - 240552Z

Summary...A band of thunderstorms is trying to consolidate and is
expected to continue to slowly lengthen with time. Hourly rain
amounts to 2" with local totals to 4" are possible through 06z.

Discussion...A broken band of thunderstorms stretches from near
Fort Stockton northeast towards Big Spring TX within the tail end
of the warm conveyor belt of a deep layer low centered in the
vicinity of southeast CO. Precipitable water values are up to
0.9-1.2" per recent GPS data. MU/ML CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg exists
in the vicinity of the band's tail, with the 6C 700 hPa isotherm
appearing to act as its southern limit. Effective bulk shear is
significant, 50-70 kts, which has led to mesocyclone formation.=20
Right-moving cells appear to be causing some eastward shift with
time. Occasional backbuilding to near/slightly south of I-10 has
been noted at times.

RAP guidance shows an uptick in moisture and low-level inflow from
the Gulf and existing convection over the next several hours,
which should act to solidify and lengthen the band somewhat, aid
precipitation efficiency, and causing the polar warm front to slow
its northeast advance from the Pecos River valley. Mesocyclones
along the existing, solidifying band are expected to cause cell
training as they hold up portions of the convective band to the
east-northeast, which could lead to hourly amounts to 2" and local
totals to 4" as cells move just right of the mean 850-400 hPa flow
in a general east-northeast direction. The combination of a
broadening cold pool and slowly veering 850 hPa flow associated
with an impinging front/pseudo dryline leads to increased forward
progression of the band to the east to east-southeast. Portions
of this region saw heavy rainfall Wednesday and Thursday, which
has lowered 3 hourly flash flood guidance values to 2-3", which
should be achievable in isolated to widely scattered spots. The
12z REFS and 18z HREF were advised for the area outlined. Flash
flooding is considered possible through 06z/midnight CST.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_zyP1sIM09MCIGlmT6X-1_ya4hUXy4M0OqKMFtaUfk4iqjVZGnYfxlcUIV9mjo_rBgr8= 7uVzWLSO13ttNTijlx2EvK4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32390111 32270029 31450004 30250073 30050201=20
30210274 30770303 31560210=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 240552
FFGMPD
TXZ000-241015-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1243
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1251 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Areas affected...lower Pecos Valley into north-central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 240550Z - 241015Z

Summary...An axis of SW to NE thunderstorms is expected to train,
likely resulting in areas of flash flooding from the lower Pecos
Valley into portions of north-central TX through 10Z. Hourly
rainfall of 1-2 inches should be common, but isolated hourly
totals in excess of 2 inches cannot be ruled out.

Discussion...Regional radar imagery at 0530Z across TX showed the
recent development of thunderstorms across the lower Pecos River
Valley from SW to NE, crossing I-10 a couple of miles west of
where US-190 meets I-10. Additional thunderstorms extended
northeastward across I-20 between Abilene and Ranger. MLCAPE was
500 to 1500+ J/kg via 05Z SPC mesoanalysis data though most of the
region was capped. The eastward motion of a mid to upper level
closed low/trough to the west has allowed sufficient lift to
overcome a capping inversion noted on the 00Z DRT sounding,
although the capping inversion is likely weaker to the north of
DRT. The storms were located out ahead of a weak Pacific cold
front analyzed over western TX at 05Z, along an axis of
convergence represented the leading edge of low level moisture
transport marked by 30-40 kt of flow per area VAD wind data in the
925-850 mb layer. Some right-entrance region ascent is also likely
present south of a 100 kt jet max located on the eastern side of
the closed low/trough.

Lift ahead of the eastward moving closed low/trough will continue
to support the expansion of numerous thunderstorms over portions
of west-central to north-central TX through 09Z. Thunderstorm
alignment is expected from SW to NE, along the similarly oriented
low level convergence axis, with mean steering flow paralleling
the axis of convergence, supportive of training. Slow overall
movement is especially likely where the leading edge of low level
transport meets the approaching zone of lift from the west, closer
to the Rio Grande, where eastward movement of the axis of forcing
is expected to be slowest. However, coverage of thunderstorms with
southward extent is a bit uncertain. The environment supports
hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches but isolated hourly totals over 2
inches should be attainable where thunderstorm axes are slower to
translate east. Areas of flash flooding are likely to result,
although coverage may be somewhat limited across the MPD threat
area through 10Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!--J0Cgwx68s_3fUkCaer5oFLIJNr1rjgaRVVx80_87jephrSQ-YTTO7MFCqPzFly5cC0= qx9_h9ZLW7rl1Rkm4ORZB5U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 33599849 33179739 32419736 31389870 30340081=20
30000244 30570297 31730151=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 241014
FFGMPD
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-241515-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1244
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
513 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Areas affected...central TX into southeastern OK/southwestern AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 241012Z - 241515Z

Summary...Flash flooding is likely to continue for portions of
central TX into southeastern OK/southwestern AR, at least on a
localized basis, through the morning commute (through 15Z/9 AM
CST). Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2+ inches will remain likely within
areas of training and at least isolated/urban flash flooding will
be likely in a couple of areas.

Discussion...Radar imagery from 10Z showed a SW to NE axis of
heavy rain that extended from near San Angelo to Graham,
containing MRMS-derived hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches and has
had a history of observed 15 minute rates between 0.5 and 1.0
inches. The axis of thunderstorms was located along the leading
edge of 30-40 kt of southerly 925-850 mb winds, which veered and
weakened to the west, forming a SW to NE axis of convergence that
has largely coincided with the line of thunderstorms over central
to northern TX since 06Z. With the exception of the far southern
edge of the line, the thunderstorms were mostly elevated above a
stable layer north of a warm front that draped NW to SE across
central TX to the Upper TX Coast. The environment contained ML/MU
CAPE values of 500-1500 J/kg and precipitable water values of 1.3
to 1.5 inches per 09Z SPC mesoanalysis data and these values are
expected to continue to be in place as the system translates east
to northeast.

Short term forecasts from the RAP show the low level convergence
axis translating eastward through 15Z, oriented parallel to
southwesterly mean steering flow, which will continue to support
areas of training over the next 3-5 hours. North of the Red River,
instability is expected to be weaker (<1000 J/kg) which may limit
rainfall intensities, but lift will be augmented by the
right-entrance region of a 90-110 kt upper level jet max located
on the eastern side of a upper level closed low/trough to the
west.

Therefore, while not everyone will see 1 to 2 inches of rain in an
hour, SW to NE axes of heavy rain will continue to impact portions
of central TX into southeastern OK/southwestern AR through 9 A.M.
local time, which will could impact the morning rush, especially
if overlap of high rain rates occurs with urban locations, such as
the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex within the next 1 to 3 hours.
Additional rainfall for many should be 1 to 2 inches but peak
values through 15Z of 2 to 3 inches will likely occur.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4ZFTNzgVNwIfsPso7FHQYtRooV-OEmC5q63V7fbKprZpyFzny24Osy-GunOLEUcodKte= o_H4CPuu11FoxTF_I1Qa12E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35019440 34799388 34309345 33309398 32169588=20
31299741 30899864 30829950 31350015 32169926=20
33519754 34869529=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 241610
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-242208-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1245
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1109 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Areas affected...portions of northeast Texas, northwestern
Louisiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241608Z - 242208Z

Summary...Areas of training/repeating thunderstorms should result
in local 2-4 inch rainfall totals through 22Z/4p Central. Flash
flooding is possible - especially where these heavy rainfall
totals can occur in sensitive and/or urban areas.

Discussion...A complex convective scenario is ongoing across
portions of Texas and Louisiana this morning. A mature linear
segment (extending from near Hot Springs, AR south-southwestward
to near Longview, TX) was forward propagating eastward while
producing areas of 0.5-1.0 inch/hr rain rates. An outflow
boundary from this activity extends westward from Longview to near
Waco, where another well-organized linear complex was moving
eastward and also producing 0.5-1.5 inch/hr rain rates.

Flash flood potential will reside between these two linear
complexes over the next 4-6 hours. The east-west oriented outflow
will interact favorably with enhanced low-level flow (30+ kt at
850 oriented perpendicular to the boundary), resulting in
repeating rounds of rainfall. Furthermore, heating along and
south of a synoptic warm front across east Texas (from near Waco
to near Lake Charles) will also aid in destabilizing to support
strengthening convection throughout the discussion area. The
overall scenario supports areas of 2-4 inch rainfall totals.

Fortunately, hourly FFG thresholds across most of the discussion
area are in the 3+ inch range where the heaviest rainfall is
expected. These thresholds may not be exceeded on a widespread
basis - although this depends somewhat on specific convective
evolution also. Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding
are expected - particularly where the greatest rainfall can occur
over low-lying and/or urban areas.=20=20

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9fUSUFL2ROiQxVrsYtVsEBgqdyxDf-bIOIvk-ma4iocAmW5lq1cRQobaTs_JYoM_o2p3= fcRDhqLMp_0tY5wFKqjPZb4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...LCH...LZK...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33439408 33429237 32409221 31929238 31359297=20
31079432 30539631 30799728 31949726 32589596=20
32979514=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 241649
FFGMPD
TXZ000-242048-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1246
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1149 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Areas affected...portions of southeastern Texas, including Houston
Metropolitan

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241648Z - 242048Z

Summary...A cluster of thunderstorms has developed just west of
Houston Metropolitan. Areas of 1 inch/hr rates have been
estimated. These rates should spread/develop east-northeastward
over the next 2-4 hours, possibly prompting excessive runoff
especially in urban areas.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms have developed along a
pre-frontal confluence axis located west of Houston Metro over the
past 1-2 hours. These cells are exhibiting rapid intensification
as evidenced by robust lightning concentrations and cooling cloud
tops via satellite. The storms are in an environment
characterized by 3500 J/kg SBCAPE and 1.6 inch PW values, both
supporting locally heavy rain. Furthermore, the cells are in a
very weakly capped environment with subtle ascent aloft passing
over the area from weak mid-level waves ahead of a larger-scale
mid/upper trough over the Texas Panhandle. Each of these features
along with strong vertical wind shear are supportive of convective
longevity and modest increases in convective coverage over the
next 2-4 hours.

Rain rates of 1-1.5 inch/hr were estimated in a couple spots
beneath the convection recently. Additional convective
development and training should result in more areas of 1.5
inch/hr rain rates over time, with some of this activity reaching
perhaps northern sides of Houston Metro. Additionally, the
presence of a warm front over the area may encourage instances of
right-moving cells -and- mergers, further enhancing local flash
flood potential. Direct impacts to Houston Metro are still in
question currently, but cannot be ruled out as storms continue to
mature. At least isolated instances of flash flooding are
possible in this regime.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5x69WgDP4V7GXF8YIMVSa-qvfy3sErd_9r8Jumve8fsd8Pa8UfZ2q8vJhSAFDJ5I4IVu= rmSVFnLOGYYCFaicFHyltqc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31379478 31199388 30469384 29729427 29079610=20
28759708 30029731 30839687 31179619=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 242200
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-250358-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1247
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
459 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Areas affected...east-central/northeast Texas, western Louisiana,
and southern Arkansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 242158Z - 250358Z

Summary...Areas of training thunderstorm continue to support 1-2.5
inch/hr rainfall rates at times. These rain rates should support
at least isolated instances of flash flooding through the evening.

Discussion...Flash flood potential continues across the discussion
area. This afternoon, several areas of scattered thunderstorms
(organized into clusters and small linear segments) have migrated
west to east across the discussion area. Over the past hour, and
uptick in convective intensity has been noted across central Texas
along and east of the I-45 corridor. An impressive 2.53 inch/hr
rain rates was measured at Athens, TX during that time. Cells are
being influenced by 1) a stout mid-level shortwave trough via
water vapor that was advancing toward the region from west-central
Texas and 2) confluent low-level flow, which was maintaining 1.7
inch PW and 1000+ J/kg MUCAPE across the discussion area. THe
storms were not congealed into a forward-propagating linear
segment, with localized axes of training continuing to support
heavier rainfall. FFG thresholds continue to range in the 2-3.5
inch/hr range, suggesting that the bulk of the flash flood threat
will likely remain tied to urban and/or sensitive areas in the
short term.

Over time, ongoing convective activity will shift eastward through
the TX/LA border region (including Shreveport Metro), with spots
of 1-3 inch/hr rain rates continuing. A cold front was making
slow progress to the east across central Texas, reducing stability
and ending the convective/flash flood threat from the west. This
front will translate eastward, reaching the TX/LA border area near
Shreveport in the 04-05Z timeframe. Flash flooding will be a
distinct possibility through at least that timeframe.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6A_9Czlk4N8uJvMpEAy71KjENzSoGcbjTJuBlDeDK8nVn3CE6d2LzSn7W1JziWcAQYhd= dXd7ZpUi4kcGG5M4tApX0Mc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...JAN...LCH...LZK...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 33739364 33529223 32669183 31189212 30469375=20
30079619 30789702 32479634 33559493=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 250359
FFGMPD
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-250810-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1248
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1058 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Areas affected...northern LA into southeastern AR and
central/northern MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 250356Z - 250810Z

Summary...Areas of flash flooding will remain possible from
northern LA into southeastern AR and central/northern MS over the
next few hours. Peak hourly rainfall values of 1 to 3 inches are
expected within axes of training.

Discussion...A broken squall line was observed through radar
imagery at 0330Z from southeastern AR into northern/western LA and
far eastern TX. This feature was located out ahead of an
approaching shortwave and embedded vorticity max which extended
from northeastern TX into southeastern OK, moving toward the ENE.
Low level convergence, ahead of the associated surface cold front
and along/north of the system's warm front, was helping to focus
the SW to NE oriented axis of thunderstorms which has had a
history of training and 1 to 3 inches of rain per hour since at
least 01Z. The lower MS Valley also resided beneath the diffluent
right entrance region of a 100 to 120+ kt jet max centered over
the central MO/IL border which was aiding lift within the moist
(1.5-1.7 inch PWs) and unstable (500-1500 J/kg MUCAPE) environment.

As the shortwave and embedded vorticity max continue to advance
downstream toward the ENE, The axis of thunderstorms will follow
suit, with areas of embedded training within the SW to NE oriented
mean steering flow. The environment will continue to support peak
hourly rainfall of 1 to 3 inches at times, which is below FFG
values for southern portions of this MPD, but at or above it for
AR into northern MS. Therefore, the flash flood threat is
considered possible and should be mainly confined to urban or
otherwise sensitive locations where 2 to 4 inches of rain could
fall in 3 hours or less time.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4a9nv8X4pl-iuXsYRf0vA3pX-uVyblhhJWRgGkOtkPsGQx8P7kA7L5qxKGPRBbJpJ4V2= q0MyJho1Nw54PYvtCxe_CGI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...LCH...LZK...MEG...OHX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 35088927 35088829 34968780 34368761 33768814=20
33018901 32329007 31849104 31289216 30859377=20
31139431 31709418 32009364 32549301 33409201=20
34709039=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 250825
FFGMPD
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-251400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1249
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
324 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

Areas affected...northern LA/MS border into central MS/northern AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 250823Z - 251400Z

Summary...While the overall flash flood coverage looks to decrease
later this morning across MS and AL, concerns remain for localized
2 to 3+ inch totals from hourly rainfall of 1 to 2+ inches. A
threat of flash flooding will linger through 14Z.

Discussion...08Z radar imagery showed an axis of strong
thunderstorms extending from western LA near DRI, northeastward
into central/northern MS. The most powerful section of this axis
was in western MS, between TVR and JAN, where some of the
strongest low level winds were observed with near 50 kt at 850 mb
from the south. A low level confluence axis from western LA into
northern MS remained a focus for thunderstorms, out ahead of a
potent vorticity max located over AR and within the
diffluent/divergent right-entrance region of an associated upper
level jet max which extended across the MS Valley into the Midwest.

Cloud tops on infrared satellite imagery have shown trends toward
warming overall over the past 2-3 hours, but bursts of colder
cloud tops remained, such as what was occurring over western MS at
08Z. A reservoir of 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE remained from central MS
into central/southern LA with up to ~1000 J/kg MUCAPE northward
into western TN. Short term forecasts from the RAP show that as
the vorticity max over AR continues to translate toward the ENE,
925-850 mb winds will veer over southern MS/AL which will have the
effect of weakening the existing axis of confluence across the
region through 12Z. However, remnant low level
convergence/confluence coincident with strong upper level ascent
will continue a threat for heavy rain and periods of training. The
environment will still be capable of localized rainfall rates over
2 in/hr but 1 to 2 inches in an hour will be more common.
Therefore, through 14Z, a localized flash flood threat will remain
from the LA/MS border into central MS and central to northern AL
where 2 to 3+ inches of rain could fall in a 2 to 3 hour window,
with the greatest concern for flash flooding across urban or
otherwise sensitive/low-lying areas.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-jACpZSiCr5zOCEqvi3Hw1pmfCDcwp6u1VTDCrhLJLJpXYVKShjKP0joJgzuyv8YHhtI= qpK0qVxJeQoKvKualHte1yI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...JAN...LCH...LIX...MEG...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34998668 34728550 33428524 32468689 31268959=20
30999128 31309200 31769195 32099144 32569074=20
33528925 34128831=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 251510
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-251909-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1250
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1010 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

Areas affected...west-central into central Alabama

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 251509Z - 251909Z

Summary: The best chance of isolated flash flood potential exists
across west-central into central Alabama over the next couple
hours.

Discussion...A complicated surface/low-level pattern exists across
the discussion area currently. A remnant outflow boundary from
earlier convection now over Georgia resides along an axis from
just south of Tuscaloosa eastward to the AL/GA border just north
of Auburn. This boundary was oriented perpendicular to strong
southerly 850mb flow (around 40-45 knots), providing ascent for
sustained, deep convective updrafts. Subtle mid-level waves
across Louisiana/Mississippi were also providing ascent for
updrafts. Convection has tended to focus along and just north of
the aforementioned outflow, and with 1.4 inch PW values, moderate
surface-based buoyancy south of the outflow, and deep layer flow
generally parallel to the initiating outflow boundary, some
opportunity exists for training of cells this morning from near
Tuscaloosa into the southern sections of Birmingham Metro this
morning. Some of this rainfall was occurring in areas that have
already experienced 2-3 inches of rainfall over the past 6 hours,
and with wet ground conditions and urban interfaces across the
discussion area, potential exists for excessive runoff issues in
the short term.

Fast southerly low-level flow should allow for at least modest
northward retreat of the outflow boundary along with a northward
shift in the primary axis of training convection, though the
northward retreat may not be as rapid as recent mesoanalyses
indicate. Meanwhile, additional upstream convection over central
Mississippi should gradually mature while moving toward the Tuscaloosa-to-Birmingham corridor this morning. This corridor
could see a locally enhanced threat of isolated flash flooding
over the next 2-4 hours or so (through 19Z/1p central).

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6oo1BSolf7M2qBcRNsBLpY_s_IwsR3N0WjlYfTIZJDSjo1V43q768zdRjEmPkHSL37-S= nj5LWzZgDLCEWCWE-B8J0X0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...MEG...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34228682 33838585 33108582 32558693 32388875=20
32808939 33598868 33928817=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 260417
FFGMPD
TXZ000-260920-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1251
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1117 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

Areas affected...South Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 260415Z - 260920Z

Summary...A localized flash flood risk will exist across portions
of southern TX through at least 09Z. Slow moving and/or
backbuilding of thunderstorms could result in isolated totals in
excess of 3-5 inches, though some uncertainty in placement and
timing remain.

Discussion...04Z radar and infrared satellite imagery showed a
lone thunderstorm over southern Webb County, about 15 miles east
of the Rio Grande with a slow northward drift. Radar and satellite
imagery also showed recent attempts at development over Live Oak
County and portions of northern Mexico though low level CIN may be
hindering further development. MRMS-derived hourly rainfall was
over 2 inches with the cell although the likely presence of large
hail may be over-inflating those values and no ground truth was
available to confirm actual rain rates. The cell was located near
a quasi-stationary front which has drifted north and west over the
past couple of hours due to a weak low level easterly surge off of
the warm Gulf waters with surface dewpoints in the lower 70s from
CRP to BKS and southward to the Rio Grande. Low level convergence
and lift augmented by a subtle shortwave impulse tracking east
from north-central Mexico as seen in 6.2 micron imagery seem to be
triggers for the storm(s).

00Z soundings from CRP and BRO showed 1.3 to 1.6 inch PW values
along with 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, with this airmass likely in
place near the cell over Webb County. The environment was
supportive of a mixture of storm modes with sufficient shear for
organized cells and straight-line hodographs which could support
splitting storms. Bunkers right motion was toward the SSE near 20
kt, Bunkers left from the SSW near 15 kt and deeper layer mean
winds from the west between 5 and 20 kt.

While recent hires model guidance shows a decent signal for
localized heavy rain in the vicinity of southern TX, there is poor
agreement in placement and timing. Current thinking is for the
existing cell over Webb County to maintain for at least another
1-2 hours with a continued drift toward the north or west with
localized heavy rain. The future beyond that time is unclear as
better low level confluence shifts westward into Mexico but
additional convective development appears possible near the
frontal boundary and south TX coast later in the night. Additional
potential for high rates in excess of 2 in/hr and spotty totals in
excess of 3 to 5 inches will remain possible.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-otaUnJHL9uHMhHKbJWde9LUbFGUwUeanvAO9Vad5_uIr0z-QeNKrL-6eTtn8HcWvIKY= zxOkhDsM0PZ1MCtcwAVzSW4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 28739716 28419661 27979657 27069704 25679698=20
25829839 26089916 26689958 27359974 27970016=20
28239969 28689774=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 260907
FFGMPD
TXZ000-261400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1252
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
406 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

Areas affected...South TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 260905Z - 261400Z

Summary...A fairly localized flash flood threat will continue over
portions of southern TX through sunrise. Slow moving thunderstorms
will be capable of hourly rainfall in excess of 2 to 3 inches in
an hour with potential for additional totals of 3 to 5+ inches.

Discussion...Area radar imagery over southern TX at 0840Z showed a
slow moving thunderstorm in the vicinity of Hebronville along with
the recent (since 07Z) expansion of a broken line of thunderstorms
extending west from Rockport. The line of storms to north of
Hebronville appears to be elevated just above the surface given
increasing northerly winds at the surface and lowering dewpoints
just north of these storms, associated with a cold front which
extended through the western Gulf into the lower Rio Grande
Valley. While ground truth of observed rainfall at the surface has
been limited, the ASOS from KHBV showed 0.88 inches of rain in 8
minutes ending 0735Z. This is an example of what the environment
over south TX can produce, represented by MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg
and precipitable water values near 1.5 inches (per 08Z SPC
mesoanalysis data).

The slow moving cold front will begin to move toward the south at
a more rapid pace by 12Z and beyond, due to a strong ridge of high
pressure to the north building in and a secondary cold front
currently moving steadily through central TX. Until then however,
the potential for slow moving thunderstorms will continue given a
mixture of cell types and cell motions, some of which could be
less than 10 kt toward the east. There is also some potential for
cells to develop/stall near the coast as a corridor of relatively
stronger low level flow near the front (15-20 kt 925-850 mb layer)
acts to focus cells along a coastal convergence axis forced by the
warmer Gulf waters relative to inland locations.

While the potential for flash flooding looks to be isolated, the
potential for high rain rates and localized totals in excess of
3-5 inches will maintain concerns for rapid inundation of water
until ~14Z, at which point, the cold front is forecast to be
moving through Brownsville.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9MR70JC_4x4-U6ClozgFChiBGGoHQgRXY5C8hXC0VU8raHtYF-yjLC3JdDUp3Flb2bBw= quZZ_nlZZT1G0h3xDIRz-kE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 28419728 28369661 27979657 27069704 25679698=20
25829839 26089916 26689958 27129972 27759937=20
28169865=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 261415
FFGMPD
TXZ000-261710-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1253
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
914 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

Areas affected...south Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 261410Z - 261710Z

Summary...Isolated flash flood potential will continue for another
2-3 hours across south Texas.

Discussion...Flash flood potential continues. Recent
satellite/objective analyses depict a weak mid-level shortwave
trough moving over south Texas, continuing to initiate and
maintain deep moist convection along a synoptic frontal zone over
the area (extending from Rio Grande City east to Padre Island and
Gulf of American waters). 1.5+ inch PW values and 2000 J/kg
SBCAPE continues to support efficient rainfall processes with
storms. Meanwhile, kinematics (with weak flow below 500mb)
continue to support slow cell movement and spots of 2-3 inch/hr
rain rates. While there's still an appreciable chance for these
rates to materialize along more populated/urbanized areas near the
Rio Grande (i.e., Brownsville, Harlingen, etc.) and prompt flash
flooding, overall convective trends suggest that eventual
low-level stabilization (due to overturning and cooler air
filtering into the region from the north) should result in flash
flood potential decreasing especially after 16-17Z.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7niCFkluyJDIbuSuPYqL7SSm2hwkFMDS5usNSZMTspejBrOI4OseGZJF2Xlq8tLfJV8H= 26GLvedeOdEYdPP1KfKG9Ao$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 27419817 26809699 25819722 26319917 26819957=20
27299962=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 292153
FFGMPD
TXZ000-300351-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1254
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
452 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 292151Z - 300351Z

Summary...Thunderstorms near Houston TX are expected to grow
upscale and potentially backbuild/train with time. Hourly amounts
to 2.5" with local totals to 5" could lead to widely scattered
instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...Satellite and radar imagery indicate the formation of
showers and thunderstorms near and east of a baroclinic zone
oriented northwest-southeast across Southeast TX within a region
of 850 hPa confluence near I-10. ML/MU CAPE to the west and
southwest is 1000-2000 J/kg. Effective bulk shear is near 40 kts,
which has led to right movers near IAH itself. The atmosphere is
saturated, considering precipitable water values (1.25-1.5" per
GPS data) within a region of 5630 meter 1000-500 hPa thickness
values. Hourly rain amounts of are up to 0.5-1" in the past hour
near Stagecoach TX, as of the time of this discussion's writing.

The 18z HREF moreso than the 12z REFS indicates the continued
building of thunderstorms in this area, with some further increase
in convective coverage, which may show backbuilding, training
character with time. Instability could erode/retreat westward
with time depending upon the degree of convective coverage,
essentially stalling the front west of Houston. Cell mergers are
also possible as less organized convection moves more northeast
while more organized convection moves more to the east. Given the
parameters, hourly amounts to 2.5" with local amounts to 5" are
possible over the next several hours, with the magnitude most in
line with the 12z ARW and 20z HRRR guidance. There is a chance
late in the MPD period of convection trying to form across
northeast TX presently near and ahead of an advancing cold front
approaching the southeast TX convective area, which could lead to
more cell mergers at or beyond 04z. Since the 12z ARW and 18z
HREF are closer to the convective evolution thus far, used their
guidance for the defined MPD area. Widely scattered instances of
flash flooding are considered possible, particularly in the
Houston metropolitan area.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-Vhatwq8jLS3mZorPAMnYdTnKTx4EfsxLABG-GVOUpKylJtFpPdI52knRINntAjzbM-p= HzQOyXL5ZWPQujCk3_4mvYw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30579626 30439491 29959459 29489490 29339650=20
29869717=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 300357
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-301000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1255
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1056 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

Areas affected...Central and Upper Texas Coastal Plain...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300400Z - 301000Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving, pre-frontal cells with rates of 2"/hr
eventually merge with south-southeastward pressing cold front
convection resulting in localized 2-4" totals in 1-3 hours.=20
Isolated flash flooding remains possible, especially near urban
centers.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 3.9um SWIR highlights a few low level
boundaries that will remain the focus of scattered thunderstorm
activity through the overnight period. The main being the surging
cold front being reinforced by favorable upper-level orientations
to support steepening of theta-E gradient while increasing
northerly surface wind flow to over 20-25kts nearly counter to the
weaker but solid onshore flow. Currently active convection along
the leading edge of the front is slow moving from Burleson to Polk
county as the winds are not fully intersecting with the line, but
will likely be propagating southward in the next hour or so. The
other boundary is the return moisture plume off the western Gulf
(which arches similar to the Lower TX Gulf coast before angling
east- northeast just south of the aforementioned convection). Tds
in the upper 60s to near 70 can be traced best in CIRA LPW sfc-850
and 850-700mb layers covering much of the MPD area of concern
across the Central and Upper Texas Coastal Plain.

Onshore flow is also increasing to 15-20kts resulting in
frictional convergence near coast. Conditionally unstable airmass
with MLCAPEs of 1000-1250 J/kg remain weakly capped but there are
some signs in satellite imagery of some weak cu field near
Victoria, TX as well as an isolated weakening supercells
northeast of Galveston Bay. The merging of the boundaries is also
allowing a westward expansion of new development upstream into
Bastrop/Caldwell county vicinity.=20

Total deep moisture of 1.5" as noted in the CIRA LPW is loaded
below 700mb, but there is solid deep saturation. These isolated
cells driven by frictional convergence will be slow moving and
eventually capable of 1-2"/hr rates. Spotty 2-3" totals will
occur in 1-2hrs, but as they mature and expand the slower moving
cells along the cold front will have started increased forward
speed and with very high low level moisture flux convergence will
have the capability of 1-1.25"/15min rainfall totals as they
intersect/merge with the cells across the Plain.

00z HREF probabilities continue to suggest 3"/3hr totals in the
20-30% range (3"/6hr over 50%) which is fairly impressive given
the strength of the updraft due to instability is fairly limited.=20
While the overall coverage will continue to be limited, spots of
3-4" totals are probable through 09z. This places sufficient
overlap of FFG exceedance (as 1hr FFG is 2.5-3" and 3hr is 3-4")
for possible localized incident or two of flash/rapid inundation
flooding. This only further increases with intersection with
urban centers, such as Victoria, Houston and Beaumont.=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6eBqZJFeXYwfdfjOanroH9GQeQtbydrQfNUR442JL4eOoRDBCnP5-W_eKdR2izXE3AJE= Wxq3reM5uV59a3QArZIE_ho$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30999472 30719393 30099362 29749380 29519420=20
29359466 28499607 27779725 27969777 28499795=20
29529752 29879714 30199681 30729602=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 020035
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-020634-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1256
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
734 PM EST Mon Dec 01 2025

Areas affected...portions of the central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 020034Z - 020634Z

Summary...A combination of cell training and backbuilding should
continue to lead to hourly rain amounts to 1.75" with local totals
to 4", which could cause flash flooding in urban areas.

Discussion...Instability across portions of the central Gulf Coast
continues to rise ahead of a negatively-tilted shortwave across
OK. Precipitable water values are ~1.6" per GPS data and MU CAPE
values of 500+ J/kg lie across the southeast tip of LA and
continue shifting north towards the MS/AL barrier islands. Radar
estimates from LIX/Hammond LA indicate that hourly amounts peaked
near 1.75" not far from the eastern suburbs of New Orleans
recently, with local totals above 2.5" so far. Occasional hourly
rain amounts to 1.5" have been seen in backbuilding convection in
southernmost AL. Effective bulk shear of 25-45 kts lurks across
the area which is helping to form a band within an area of 850 hPa
confluence.

The band is showing some signs of shifting northward across
southern AL and slightly eastward in southeast LA. Additional
activity south of the LA/MS coasts within a convergence zone which
extends from northwest Cuba towards the central Gulf Coast could
advect northward towards portions of this area in the next several
hours and cause additional issues. The guidance has not been
ideal in this region thus far -- too far north and too light --
though the 18z hi-res NAM appears to have the best idea, so used
it as a starting point for the MPD bounds, making some adjustments
based on radar reflectivity trends. The region has been dry, so
flash flood guidance values are high. Hourly amounts to 1.75" and
local totals to 4" appear possible where cells train and/or
backbuild, which would be most problematic in urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6SdogcIUxTtroqQTUwxSALeN9Fo_uMvC5I4pW6eAAjX9DWw67VnyMfB31nkTA5_xaSPt= yY_XxORQJb-wb9BRCh179PU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31928616 31298582 30558670 30248743 30078846=20
29938870 29778905 29439024 29689078 30768934=20
31778728=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 080044
FFGMPD
FLZ000-080300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1257
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
742 PM EST Sun Dec 07 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the Central Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080041Z - 080300Z

Summary...A combination of locally intense rainfall and cell
training should continue this evening which could cause flash
flooding in urban areas.

Discussion...Thunderstorms with isolated maximum rainfall rates
approaching 1.5 inches per hour have been moving on-shore and
tracking northeastward from near Tampa to Cape Canaveral early
this evening. These storms appear to be associated with a
mid-level vorticity maximum approaching from the eastern Gulf of
America along the axis of a 2+ inch precipitable water plume and
axis of boundary layer moisture flux convergence. Radar estimates
from TBW/Tampa Bay indicate that hourly amounts have peaked near
1.75 inches in parts of Pinellas and Pasco counties and that the
maximum rainfall totals were approaching 3.25 inches in the same
area. These amounts were embedded within a broader 1.5 to 2,5
inch stripe of rainfall extending towards the central portion of
the peninsula.

With additional showers and thunderstorms located off-shore...the
potential for flooding due to multiple rounds of heavy rainfall
exists. The 18Z HREF/RRFS showed the probability of 1 inch per
hour rates diminishing to less than 5 percent along the west-coast
by 08/03Z. Their placement has been a bit too far north with the
intense rates. Even so...the HREF captured the evolution in the
broadest sense and was used it as a starting point for the MPD.=20

Maximum Hourly amounts 1" to 1.75" and local totals to 3.5" appear
possible where cells train and/or back-build, which would be most
problematic in urban areas and regions of poor drainage as well as
along small streams.

Bann

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6pVmRublY1OVsAJkJg8O46F9ZFJcJq11wZG7H7yfyyETA4AMO-6DQLkDZoaZVaqobmxQ= aeSyDnVcKLlM3SGwH4kZuK0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 28538137 28538106 28328102 28008125 27678210=20
27488265 27958282 28338219 28488162=20

=3D =3D =3D
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