ACUS48 KWNS 070904
SWOD48
SPC AC 070902

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 AM CST Fri Nov 07 2025

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...
With a continental airmass intrusion across the entirety of the Gulf
and Atlantic Coasts by D4/Monday, severe and even thunder potential
should be negligible through mid-week. Modified return flow will
occur across the western Gulf and spread into the South-Central
States during mid to late week. But this will occur downstream of an
amplified upper ridge over the West, curtailing severe potential
through D8/Friday.

..Grams.. 11/07/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 080836
SWOD48
SPC AC 080835

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 AM CST Sat Nov 08 2025

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorm potential will be negligible through much of the
period in the wake of a continental airmass overspreading the Gulf
on D3/Monday. Modified return flow should slowly build across the
western Gulf mid to late week, with a maritime tropical airmass
approaching the northwest Gulf next weekend. Guidance still lacks
run-to-run continuity and timing spread is large, but consensus
indications are for an upper-level trough to progress into the
Southwest around next weekend. This could yield a return to severe
potential in the South-Central States after D8/Saturday.

..Grams.. 11/08/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 090848
SWOD48
SPC AC 090847

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 AM CST Sun Nov 09 2025

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Modified return flow will slowly build across the western Gulf mid
to late week, with a maritime tropical airmass probably reaching
parts of the TX Gulf Coast next weekend. As mentioned by WPC's EPD,
run-to-run model variability remains high with a large amount of
spread in the potential evolution of a broad upper trough
approaching the West Coast on D5/Thursday. This is well illustrated
by the change in SPC-CSU GEFS-ML probabilistic guidance over the
past 24 hours for D7/Saturday -- from a mesoscale 5% area in the
Mid-MS Valley in yesterday's D8 to a full-latitude 5% from the Rio
Grande to the Great Lakes, along with broad 15% and 30% highlights
from parts of TX/LA to the Mid-MS Valley. While its parent 00Z GFS
appears conducive to severe, over what would likely be a subset of
these large highlights, this latest run lacks any semblance of
continuity. In addition, other models, such as the EC-AIFS suggest a
closed, cutoff low may just be in the process of moving onshore on
D7/Saturday, compared to the progressive, full-latitude trough over
the Great Plains in this GFS run. For this forecast, will upgrade to Predictability Too Low for D7/Saturday and extend into D8/Sunday for indications of possible severe, probably focused in the
South-Central States, within a low predictability pattern.

..Grams.. 11/09/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 100848
SWOD48
SPC AC 100846

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Modified return flow will persist across the western Gulf late week,
with a maritime tropical airmass reaching the TX Gulf Coast next
weekend. This will support a return of severe-storm potential to
mainly the western and central Gulf Coast States.

Downstream evolution of a broad upper trough along the West Coast on D4/Thursday is the primary forecast challenge into the weekend.
While the 00Z runs of the EC, GFS, and CMC have converged to greater
alignment with the handling of the southern-stream shortwave trough
across the Southwest and northern Mexico, run-to-run continuity
remains poor. In addition, differing scenarios in other guidance
such as a much slower cutoff low in the EC-AI, along with a large
amount of spread across the GEFS/ECENS, all suggest a fairly
unpredictable pattern continues. This is further supported by WPC's
latest EPD mention of well below-average confidence in this
weekend's forecast.

..Grams.. 11/10/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 110921
SWOD48
SPC AC 110919

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0319 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Bulk of guidance has largely trended towards the more consistent
EC-AIFS with a cutoff closed low near southern CA on D5/Saturday.
The EC-AIFS has been trending slower and more dampened with the
downstream evolution across the southern Rockies into the central
Great Plains into early next week. Most other deterministic guidance
remains faster and farther south with the evolution of this wave and
progress it into the South-Central States.

A maritime tropical airmass should reach the TX Gulf Coast by late
weekend. This should yield a resumption of severe potential into the South-Central States after being negligible in preceding days.
Still, the quartet of latest GEFS-SPC/NSSL and yesterday's ECENS-AI
NCAR probabilistic guidance are each holding at less than 15
percent. If the rest of guidance further follows recent EC-AIFS
trends, severe probabilities may remain marginal and/or
mesoscale-focused on D6-7/Sunday-Monday.

Given signals for another large-scale trough into the Southwest
towards D8/Tuesday and lack of frontal intrusion into the northwest
Gulf with the lead wave, another round of severe potential may
develop around mid-week next week.

..Grams.. 11/11/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 120859
SWOD48
SPC AC 120857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Lower Great Lakes/Upper OH Valley on D4/Saturday...
Amplification of a negative-tilt mid-level trough appears probable
from the Canadian Prairies towards the Northeast. Within the
left-exit region of a strengthening mid-level jet, convection should
increase towards late afternoon and especially into the evening
along a sharpening cold front that accelerates southeastward. With
only modified boundary-layer moisture return ahead of the front,
MLCAPE should be quite limited and spatially confined. But a
supercell wind profile combined with pronounced large-scale ascent
should be adequate for at least low severe probabilities.

...South-Central States on D6-8/Monday-Wednesday...
Latest guidance continues to converge towards the more consistent
EC-AIFS with the evolution of the closed low off the southern CA
coast at 12Z Saturday. Similar to yesterday's EC-AIFS, this should
become an open but compact wave as it ejects across the southern
Rockies to the central Great Plains by Monday. The southern
influence of the wave may overspread the northern periphery of
western Gulf moisture, rendering at least low severe probabilities.

This wave may largely dampen into Tuesday with the more consistent
EC-AIFS indicating a mid-level ridge building from the Gulf into the
Mid-MS Valley, in advance of a large-scale trough in the West. The
EC-AIFS hints at another potential cutoff/closed low situation,
albeit farther east than the prior wave. With the GFS also
supporting this scenario, severe potential in this pattern might
remain marginal and confined to TX. This is in contrast to other
guidance suggesting a more progressive wave interacting with the
western Gulf moisture plume.

..Grams.. 11/12/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 130950
SWOD48
SPC AC 130949

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...South-Central States on D5-8/Monday-Thursday...
Bulk of guidance continues to follow the lead of the EC-AIFS with
the handling of a shortwave trough initially over the Southwest at
12Z Sunday. This compact wave should dampen as it crosses the
southern Rockies to the central Great Plains into Monday. The
peripheral southern influence of the wave may overspread the
northern periphery of a confined western Gulf moisture plume. While
5 percent severe probabilities are evident, this setup will likely
depend greatly on more precise timing of the trough ejection and
attendant surface cyclone placement for a 15 percent highlight.

The dampening of this wave will largely be in response to an upper
ridge building from the Gulf into the Midwest downstream of an
expansive trough becoming anchored over the Southwest. This may
yield expansion of the persistent western Gulf moisture plume in the South-Central States mid-week. Most guidance indicates an intense
mid-level jet may develop along the backside of this trough and
eventually curl through the base with the trough accelerating
eastward. Predictable timing of such a transition appears low given
the large spread across guidance, but the EC-AIFS and AIGFS are
consistent together in the 00Z run. This could yield an increasing
severe threat starting around Wednesday, which is supported by NSSL
GEFS ML version 1 probabilities peaking in this time frame.

..Grams.. 11/13/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 140808
SWOD48
SPC AC 140807

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A midlevel shortwave trough will dampen as it shifts east from the
central Plains toward the Mid-South in the Day 4-5/Mon-Tue time
period. Some enhanced westerly flow will overspread the region
nonetheless, and a weak surface low is forecast to track from KS/OK
toward the central or southern Appalachians through Tuesday night.
Ahead of the surface low and an attending cold front, modest Gulf
moisture return is forecast across the southern Plains into the
Lower MS Valley. Some strong to isolated severe thunderstorms could
develop across the Ozarks to the Mid-South vicinity Monday and
Tuesday, through confidence in 15 percent coverage is low given the
weakening midlevel trough and lack of a deepening surface cyclone.

During the Day 6-8 period, forecast model spread increases
considerably. However, a general trend indicating a deepening trough
across the West ejecting across the Plains toward the central U.S.
Thursday and Friday is apparent. Depending on the evolution of this
feature and any developing surface cyclone and attendant Gulf return
flow across the south-central U.S., an increase in severe
thunderstorm potential could develop. Large spread and poor
run-to-run consistency among various guidance precludes
probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 11/14/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 150846
SWOD48
SPC AC 150845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Upper-level ridging over the Plains on Day 4/Tue will develop
eastward over the eastern third of the CONUS through Day 5/Wed as a
western upper trough slowly ejects over the Rockies and into the
Plains around Day 6/Thu. Gulf moisture will return northward across
the southern Plains and south-central states ahead of the ejecting
upper trough. Isolated strong to severe storms may be possible on
Wednesday across the southern Plains and Ozarks vicinity in a warm
advection regime ahead of the upper trough. By Day 6/Thu, the upper
trough should progress east across the Plains toward the Mississippi
Valley, with a surface cold front sweeping eastward as this occurs,
and some severe potential could accompany widespread thunderstorm
activity ahead of the front.

Confidence in coverage of severe storms Day 5-6/Wed-Thu is
uncertain. Large spread (and poor run-to-run consistency) exists
among forecast guidance. The GFS and ECMWF-AIFS are more similar
compared to the dynamical ECMWF, indicating a slower ejecting trough
and only modest surface cyclogenesis until late Thursday when the
low ejects northeast toward the Mid-MS Valley/Great Lakes.
Furthermore, while strong southwesterly flow will overspread
northward returning Gulf moisture across the Plains and
south-central states, forcing for ascent will be somewhat limited on
Wednesday as the trough ejects more slowly. As the trough ejects on
Thursday and a cold front becomes a focus for storm development, boundary-parallel deep-layer flow and a northeastward ejecting
cyclone may favor a more anafrontal, training convection/heavy
rainfall scenario. While severe potential certainly is in play for
Days 5-6/Wed-Thu, these uncertainties preclude 15 percent
probabilities at this time.

Beyond Day 6/Thu, model disparity increases substantially and
predictability is low.

..Leitman.. 11/15/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 161001
SWOD48
SPC AC 160959

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Wednesday - D5/Thursday...
An increase in severe potential remains evident across the
south-central CONUS from D4/Wednesday into D5/Thursday, but
uncertainty remains regarding many details and the overall magnitude
of the threat. Guidance is in somewhat better agreement regarding
the timing of the closed mid/upper-level low and attendant trough
that will move from the Southwest toward the south-central Plains
from late Wednesday into Thursday. Forcing may remain somewhat
nebulous during the day on Wednesday, but storms that may develop
late Tuesday night could continue into Wednesday morning, while
isolated diurnal development will be possible across the broader
warm sector. Deep-layer shear will be favorable for organized
storms, but low-level flow is generally forecast to be rather weak
until late Wednesday night.

As the approaching trough impinges upon rich boundary-layer moisture
and a reservoir of moderate buoyancy, storm development will become increasingly widespread Wednesday night into Thursday, along/ahead
of a north/south-oriented cold front that will move east across the southern/central Plains. Deep-layer shear will remain favorable for
storm organization, while low-level flow/shear should increase as a
surface low deepens and moves northeastward across the central
Plains. Some severe threat may expand from the southern Plains into
parts of the lower MO and mid MS Valleys with time on Thursday,
though buoyancy will become increasingly scant with northward
extent.

Given the late arrival of stronger large-scale ascent and low-level
mass response on Wednesday night, and the anticipated widespread
storm coverage on Thursday, the magnitude of available buoyancy and
the resulting severe threat remain uncertain. These uncertainties
appear to be reflected in the relatively broad and modest
probabilities from available calibrated guidance. However, given the
likelihood of a strong ejecting trough impinging upon anomalous
low-level moisture, severe probabilities will likely be needed in
subsequent outlooks.

...D6/Friday - D8/Sunday...
Predictability regarding the synoptic pattern becomes rather low by
late week into next weekend. Some severe threat could spread into
parts of the Southeast and Ohio Valley on Friday, though buoyancy
will become increasingly limited. Some guidance (such as the 16/00Z
ECMWF) depicts another deep trough moving across the southern Plains
next weekend, though spread regarding this potential system is quite
large within other extended-range guidance.

..Dean.. 11/16/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 170908
SWOD48
SPC AC 170907

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Thursday - Southern Plains to Mid-MS Valley...

An upper trough over the Four Corners vicinity will eject
east/northeast into the Plains on Thursday. Moderate southwesterly
deep-layer flow will overspread portions of OK/TX toward the Ozarks
as this occurs. Warm advection ahead of the trough, coincident with
a weakening southerly low-level jet, will result in widespread
showers and thunderstorms across the region early Thursday. This may
temper destabilization despite rich boundary layer moisture.
Meanwhile, a surface low will modestly deepen near the OK/KS border,
and a north-south oriented cold front draped across west TX will
develop eastward through the period, with a warm front extending
west-east across central MO/southern IL. These boundaries may focus
some risk for stronger storms within a weak to moderately unstable
airmass. However, the magnitude of the severe risk still remains
uncertain given potential for widespread and possibly heavy
rainfall, somewhat weak low-level flow, and the weakening of the
upper trough as it shifts east/northeast during the evening. Severe probabilities may become necessary is subsequent outlooks, but
uncertainty remains too high to include a 15 percent delineation at
this time.

...Day 5/Fri - Mid/Lower MS and OH/TN Valley vicinity...

The surface cold front will continue to develop east/southeast
across the region on Friday/Friday night. Some low-end severe
potential could persist given rich boundary layer moisture and at
least modest buoyancy ahead of the front. However, persistent
rainfall and a weakening upper trough with veering/boundary-parallel
deep-layer flow will likely limit storm intensity.

...Days 6-8/Sat-Mon...

Spread among forecast guidance increases late in the period and
forecast confidence is low. However, most guidance depicts some
version of an upper trough/low over the Southwest ejecting east
toward the Plains, but the differences in timing/intensity, etc
limit predictability. Some increase in severe potential could return
to portions of the southern Plains depending on how this potential
trough evolves and guidance trends will be monitored.

..Leitman.. 11/17/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 180926
SWOD48
SPC AC 180924

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0324 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Days 4-5/Fri-Sat - Southeast TX to the Carolinas...

A shortwave upper trough over the southern Plains will migrate east
across the Mid-South on Friday, and exiting the southern
Mid-Atlantic coast by Saturday evening. Gulf moisture will spread
across much of the region ahead of a weak surface low and slowly
moving cold front. Thunderstorms, perhaps some strong, could develop
near the front from southeast TX into the Mid-South and OH/TN Valley
vicinity on Friday into early Saturday. However, instability is
expected to remain weak as boundary layer moisture decreases with
northeast extent. Furthermore, low-level flow will remain veering
and boundary-parallel deep-layer flow will favor more of a
messy/training storm mode. While some low-end severe probabilities
could become necessary in later outlook, potential appears too low
for 15 percent probabilities on Friday.

Thunderstorms will continue to develop eastward into the Carolinas
on Saturday as the cold front continues to sag southeast. Weak
instability will likely preclude severe potential into Saturday.

...Days 6-8/Sun-Tue - Southern Plains...

Spread among forecast guidance increases considerably by Days
6-7/Sun-Mon and confidence/predictability is low. However, in
general another upper trough is expected to deepen across the
Southwestern U.S. early next week, perhaps ejecting into the Plains
sometime around the end of the forecast period. Gulf return flow
will occur across TX ahead of this next trough in a progressive
upper pattern. Increasing moisture and shear as the trough ejects
could support severe potential across the southern Plains early next
week, but details remain uncertain.

..Leitman.. 11/18/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 190908
SWOD48
SPC AC 190906

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0306 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Most medium-range forecast guidance is consistent in developing an eastward-progressing upper low and attendant trough from the
Southwest into the southern/central Plains Day 4/Sat into Day 6/Mon.
Strong surface high pressure in the wake of an earlier cold frontal
passage in the Day 3/Fri period will extend from the southern Plains
into the Southeast, suppressing any deeper northward Gulf moisture
return until overnight Day 5/Sun when the upper trough ejects into
the High Plains. Some severe thunderstorm potential could develop
across southern into central TX late Sunday into Monday as a surface
cold front develops east across the southern Plains and stronger
southwesterly deep-layer flow overlaps returning Gulf moisture.
However, it is unclear if surface-based storms will develop given
the overnight nature of storm development and potential capping.
Severe probabilities may become necessary in later outlooks as
details regarding moisture return and timing of convection become
better resolved.

The upper trough will progress east/northeast across the Midwest and
Southeast late in the forecast period, with most guidance suggesting
broad, low-amplitude troughing developing across much of the CONUS
east of the Rockies by midweek. Some severe potential could persist
into the Lower MS Valley/Deep South vicinity on Day 7/Tue as upper
trough and surface low continue east, but large spread is present in medium-range guidance regarding the evolution of the surface low and
associated pre-frontal warm sector, resulting in low predictability.

..Leitman.. 11/19/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 200910
SWOD48
SPC AC 200909

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0309 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Days 4-6/Sun-Tue -- Southern Plains to the TN Valley...

An upper low and attendant trough over the Southwest/northern Mexico
will eject east into the Plains by early Day 5/Monday. Gulf
moisture will spread northward across portions of TX into the Lower
MS Valley through early Tuesday. This moisture return will occur
ahead of the ejecting trough/increasing deep-layer southwesterly
flow, and a cold front sweeping across the region. Warm advection
will support thunderstorm development by late Sunday as the upper
trough and cold front begin to march across TX, and some hail risk
could accompany this activity. However, storm mode could preclude a
greater risk, and storm coverage/intensity is uncertain given
overnight timing.

As this system continues east across the ArkLaTex into the Lower MS
Valley on Monday, some severe potential could persist into these
areas. However, uncertainty regarding moisture return and degree of destabilization due to potentially ongoing and widespread training precipitation precludes severe probabilities at this time. Some risk
could continue across parts of the TN Valley/Southeast into Tuesday.
However, the upper trough is expected to be weakening and lifting
well north of the region by this time.

...Days 7-8/Wed-Thu...

The surface front will move offshore on Day 7/Wed and strong surface
high pressure will build across much of the CONUS. This will result
in dry and colder conditions, leading to a stable airmass. Severe
potential appears low mid to late in the week.

..Leitman.. 11/20/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 210952
SWOD48
SPC AC 210951

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
As a mid-level trough deamplifies and moves from the central Plains
to the Midwest on D4/Monday, low-level moisture will advect
northward across eastern Texas, Louisiana, and southern Arkansas.
Some filtered heating should result in moderate instability by early
afternoon with moderate to strong shear. Morning thunderstorms will
likely have a stabilizing effect on the northern extent, but south
of this activity, a relatively more favorable zone for supercells
may exist on Monday afternoon. Relatively weak lapse rates are the
primary limiting factor to severe weather probabilities at this
time.

On D5/Tuesday, the surface front will stall across Louisiana and
Mississippi with weak to moderate instability to its south. Forcing
will remain somewhat nebulous, but given persistent moderate shear,
a few stronger storms will be possible from eastern Louisiana to
northern Alabama.

D6/Wednesday and beyond will feature a strong area of high pressure
across much of the eastern CONUS. This will push 60F dewpoints into
the Gulf/Atlantic and bring an end to any severe weather threat and
potentially any thunderstorm threat east of the Rockies for the
remainder of the week.

..Bentley.. 11/21/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 220856
SWOD48
SPC AC 220854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Tue - Southeast...
A cold front will continue east across the Southeast on Tuesday as a
surface low deepens across the Upper Midwest. This strengthening
surface low, will sharpen the cold front during the day as it
advances east. Weak to potentially moderate instability is expected
across MS/AL ahead of this cold front. Mid-level flow will
strengthen through the day and provide ample deep-layer shear for
storm organization. A few supercells capable of isolated large hail
may be possible. A focused zone of severe weather potential likely
exists from central Mississippi to northern Alabama, but
probabilities are not high enough to warrant a 15% contour at this
time.

...Day 5/Wed - East Coast...
As this cold front continues east on Wednesday, low 60s dewpoints
will continue to advect northward ahead of the cold front.
Instability is forecast to remain mostly weak across the Carolinas
and into eastern Virginia on Wednesday, but given the strong wind
field, some damaging wind gusts may be possible.

High pressure will bring a dry/cool airmass to much of the eastern
CONUS by the end of next week which will limit severe weather
potential.

Southerly return flow is forecast to resume by next weekend which
could eventually lead to renewed severe weather potential across
portions of the Southern Plains and eventually the Southeast.

..Bentley.. 11/22/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 230959
SWOD48
SPC AC 230958

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The warm sector will be onshore at the beginning of the period
D4/Wed from the Southeast coast to the Carolinas. This may permit a
few thunderstorms along the cold front early Wednesday before the
front moves into the Atlantic. In the wake of this front, cool, dry
air and high pressure will build across much of the central and
eastern CONUS. This will result in minimal thunderstorm
activity/severe weather potential Thursday and Friday.

By next weekend, return flow will resume across the southern Plains
and thunderstorm chances will increase. Most guidance shows a large
trough across the western CONUS by the end of the weekend and into
early next week, but the orientation, size, and timing of this
trough remains uncertain. Severe weather potential will likely
return at some point given the approaching trough and inland
moisture intrusion, but uncertainties are too high for severe
weather probabilities at this time.

..Bentley.. 11/23/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 240906
SWOD48
SPC AC 240905

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0305 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm activity should be minimal Thursday and Friday as high
pressure ushers in a cool, dry airmass across much of the eastern
CONUS. By late Friday night, return flow across Texas may lead to
some weak destabilization and thunderstorm chances.

Severe thunderstorms are possible Day6/Saturday to Day8/Monday
across the southern Plains as the warm sector expands across Texas
and mid-level trough amplifies across the western CONUS. Evolution
of this mid-level trough remains uncertain. The GFS, AIGFS, and
EC-AIFS all suggest a slower evolution of the trough with a deeper
closed low across the Southwest. However, the operational ECMWF is
more progressive and would actually suggest an end to severe weather
potential by Monday with offshore flow across the Gulf Coast once
again. At this time, the consensus pattern for a slower, more
amplified trough seems most likely, especially given that previous
12Z and 00Z ECMWF model runs preferred this solution as well.

Severe thunderstorms will be possible with this preferred pattern,
but uncertainty in the evolution of the mid-level trough and timing
preclude severe weather probabilities at this time.

..Bentley.. 11/24/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 250902
SWOD48
SPC AC 250901

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0301 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm potential should be limited during the day on D4/Friday
with high pressure and a dry, continental polar airmass across much
of the country. By Friday night, return flow across Texas will
strengthen as a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet develops. This may
result in some weak elevated thunderstorms late Friday night and
early Saturday.

...D5/Sat to D8/Tue...
Severe thunderstorms may be possible from the southern Plains to the
Gulf Coast this weekend and into early next week. Mid to upper 60s
dewpoints are expected either onshore or close to onshore by this
weekend. However, evolution of the mid-level pattern remains quite
uncertain. This mid-level pattern will largely dictate the timing
and inland penetration of richer low-level moisture and instability.
Therefore, broad severe weather potential exists Saturday to
Tuesday, but more specific timing or intensity information is not
available at his time due to the large uncertainties.

..Bentley.. 11/25/2025

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