ACUS01 KWNS 061556
SWODY1
SPC AC 061554

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0954 AM CST Thu Nov 06 2025

Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
contiguous United States.

...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude, progressive flow regime will characterize the upper
pattern today across the Lower 48 states. A mid-level trough
featuring a few vorticity maxima will consolidate and amplify as
this trough moves across the northern Great Plains into the Upper
Midwest by early Friday morning. In the low levels, a cyclone will
deepen during the period and move across the ND/MN vicinity to the
Upper Peninsula of MI. A strengthening warm conveyor will probably
result in isolated thunderstorm activity tonight across the mid MS
Valley into the southern Great Lakes before a cold front sweeps
east.

Elsewhere, intermittent showers and isolated thunderstorms will
accompany a potent 500-mb speed max forecast to move east from the
eastern Pacific into the Pacific Northwest. A low-latitude
disturbance is forecast to eject across the southern Gulf of America
toward south Florida late in the period. This feature should
encourage a weak surface trough to focus near the south Florida
Atlantic Coast. Scattered convection is expected to develop
near/east of this boundary during the overnight hours.

..Smith/Thornton.. 11/06/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 061942
SWODY1
SPC AC 061940

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 PM CST Thu Nov 06 2025

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
contiguous United States.

...20z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. See
the previous discussion below for details.

..Moore.. 11/06/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0954 AM CST Thu Nov 06 2025/

...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude, progressive flow regime will characterize the upper
pattern today across the Lower 48 states. A mid-level trough
featuring a few vorticity maxima will consolidate and amplify as
this trough moves across the northern Great Plains into the Upper
Midwest by early Friday morning. In the low levels, a cyclone will
deepen during the period and move across the ND/MN vicinity to the
Upper Peninsula of MI. A strengthening warm conveyor will probably
result in isolated thunderstorm activity tonight across the mid MS
Valley into the southern Great Lakes before a cold front sweeps
east.

Elsewhere, intermittent showers and isolated thunderstorms will
accompany a potent 500-mb speed max forecast to move east from the
eastern Pacific into the Pacific Northwest. A low-latitude
disturbance is forecast to eject across the southern Gulf of America
toward south Florida late in the period. This feature should
encourage a weak surface trough to focus near the south Florida
Atlantic Coast. Scattered convection is expected to develop
near/east of this boundary during the overnight hours.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 070101
SWODY1
SPC AC 070059

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 PM CST Thu Nov 06 2025

Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
U.S.

...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels, a trough will move through the Great Plains tonight,
as flow becomes west-southwesterly across much of the eastern half
of the nation. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the
trough over parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and southwestern
Great Lakes. Additional storms may form in far eastern Florida and
in the Pacific Northwest. Very weak instability in these areas will
eliminate any severe potential through tonight.

..Broyles.. 11/07/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 070602
SWODY1
SPC AC 070600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CST Fri Nov 07 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and marginally severe wind
gusts are possible today into this evening, across parts of the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys. A few marginally severe storms could also
develop in the central Gulf Coast states from afternoon into the
overnight period.

...Tennessee and Ohio Valleys/Central Gulf Coast States...
A mid-level trough, and an associated cold front will move eastward
through the mid Mississippi Valley today. Ahead of the front, an
axis of low-level moisture will be in place, along which surface
dewpoints will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s F. Destabilization
along the moist axis is expected to be modest due to abundant cloud
cover. However, MLCAPE could locally peak near 1000 J/kg by late
afternoon from northern Mississippi into southern Kentucky.
Thunderstorms are expected to form along and near the front during
the mid afternoon, with the storms moving eastward toward the
central Appalachians in the late afternoon and early evening. Along
this southwest-to-northeast corridor of instability, forecasts
soundings late this afternoon have moderate to strong deep-layer
shear in the 50 to 60 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates around
7 C/km. This could be enough for rotating storms capable of isolated
large hail. The stronger cells could also produce marginally severe
wind gusts. The area with the greatest severe threat is expected to
be relatively small, mainly due to instability which is forecast to
remain weak.

Further south into parts of the central Gulf Coast, surface
dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F may be enough to allow moderate
instability to develop by afternoon. Although large-scale ascent is
forecast to remain weak, isolated storms could form along and to the
east of a moist axis. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level
lapse rates could be sufficient for marginal severe threat. Hail and
a few isolated severe gusts will be possible with the stronger
cells. Due to the instability, which is forecast to remain in place
as the trough moves into the Appalachians, a marginal severe threat
could continue into the overnight period.

..Broyles/Supinie.. 11/07/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 071241
SWODY1
SPC AC 071240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 AM CST Fri Nov 07 2025

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and marginally severe wind
gusts are possible today into this evening, across parts of the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys. A few marginally severe storms could also
develop in the central Gulf Coast states from afternoon into the
overnight period.

...Synopsis...
Shortwave trough currently moving across the central Plains will
continue eastward/southeastward throughout the day, progressing
across the Mid MS and OH Valleys. Surface low attendant to this
system will move from its current location over western Upper MI
eastward across the Upper Great Lakes and southeastern ON into
southern QC. As it does, an associated cold front will sweep eastward/southeastward across the OH and TN Valley tonight,
continuing eastward into the Mid-Atlantic overnight.

...TN Valley into the southern Appalachians...
The cold front is forecast to interact with low-level moisture
advecting northward/northeastward in response to the overall system
evolution. Recent surface analysis placed mid 50s dewpoints just
ahead of this front across east-central/southeast MO and southern
IL. Expectation is for mid-50s dewpoints to persist ahead of the
front over much of the OH Valley, with greater dewpoints anticipated
farther south (i.e. low 60s across the TN Valley and mid 60s across
the Southeast). However, even with this increasing moisture, airmass destabilization is uncertain, owing to seasonally warm mid-level
temperatures and widespread cloudiness. The best forcing for ascent
is expected during the afternoon and evening across the middle/upper
OH Valley and northern TN Valley, but the lack of surface
destabilization will likely result in a predominantly elevated and
anafrontal character to thunderstorms in this region. A few
instances of isolated hail are possible.

Modest surface-based buoyancy is possible farther south from
south-central KY through Middle TN where dewpoints preceding the
front will likely be the in the low 60s. Robust westerly flow aloft
will support strong deep-layer shear, which could result in some
modest thunderstorms organization along and ahead of the cold front.
Frontal forcing will favor a linear storm mode, with some bowing
segments capable of producing damaging gusts. Some hail is possible
as well.

...Central Gulf Coast...
Greater low-level moisture is anticipated across this region than
areas farther north. However, overall forcing for ascent, both
synoptically and along the front, will be weaker. Primary forcing
across this region will likely be warm-air advection, which leads to
greater uncertainty regarding convective initiation, particularly
given the cloud cover expected. If an updraft is able to mature and
persist, there will likely be enough low-level helicity to support a
limited tornado risk.

..Mosier/Squitieri.. 11/07/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 071632
SWODY1
SPC AC 071630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Fri Nov 07 2025

Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon
through the evening across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
A few marginally severe storms could also develop in the central
Gulf Coast states late this afternoon into the overnight period.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level shortwave
trough over eastern NE/KS moving into southwest IA/MO. This upper
feature will move into the OH Valley by mid evening and the central Appalachians by 08/12 UTC. Surface analysis indicates a cold front
over the middle MS Valley. The front will sweep east-southeast
across the OH/TN Valleys before reaching the Mid-Atlantic states and
northern portions of the central Gulf Coast states by early morning
Saturday.

...TN Valley into the southern Appalachians...
South-southwesterly low-level flow will act to gradually advect
richer moisture poleward within the warm conveyor and feature
surface dewpoints rising into the 56-58 deg F range across KY and
near 60 deg F across Middle TN by late afternoon. Perhaps equally consequential will be mid-level cold-air advection with 500-mb
temperatures forecast to significantly cool (e.g., -12 deg C at 12
UTC per the Nashville, TN 12 UTC raob to -16 to -17 deg C by 00
UTC). As a result, weak destabilization is forecast with MLCAPE
ranging from 200-500 J/kg over KY to 500-1000 J/kg across the TN
Valley. Model guidance continues to show scattered cellular storms
developing late this afternoon initially over the KY/TN border
vicinity, with storms developing farther south near the AL/TN border
during the evening. Forecast hodographs will support organized
storms with the stronger updrafts, including the possibility for a
few supercells. A tornado risk, in addition to the threat for
damaging gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail may accompany the
stronger storms. A mix of linear storm modes and supercells are
expected through the early to mid evening as this activity moves
east. Storms and the severe risk will probably lessen over the
southern Appalachians before diminishing overnight.

...Central Gulf Coast...
Greater low-level moisture is anticipated farther south across this
region. However, overall forcing for ascent, both synoptically and
along the front, will be weaker and mid-level temperature
considerably warmer. The primary forcing across this region will
likely be warm-air advection, which leads to greater uncertainty
regarding convective initiation, particularly given the cloud cover
expected. If an updraft is able to mature and persist, there will
likely be enough low-level helicity to support a limited tornado
risk.

..Smith/Leitman.. 11/07/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 071958
SWODY1
SPC AC 071956

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CST Fri Nov 07 2025

Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon
through the evening across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
A few marginally severe storms could also develop in the central
Gulf Coast states late this afternoon into the overnight period.

...20z Update...

Visible satellite shows a gradual uptick in convective development
along the primary front, stretching from south-central Indiana
southwestward into far southern Illinois and Bootheel of Missouri.
Localized clearing has been evident in this region the last few
hours, aiding in destabilization ahead of the front in tandem with
cooling mid-level temperatures aloft in association with the
advancing upper-trough. Scattered storms are expected to develop in
the next few hours in this region and eventually pose a risk for
marginally severe wind/hail, particularly as storms begin to mature
and approach the Marginal Risk area across western Tennessee and
vicinity by early evening.

As this activity spreads east, the potential for severe storms
remains possible for the remainder of the evening, mainly across
middle Tennessee and south-central Kentucky. Therefore, the ongoing
forecast appears on track with no adjustments made to hazard
probabilities. Some uncertainty remains on eventual storm modes that materialize and the potential for convection to remain organized and
persist east and south of the Slight Risk area. A few of the recent
CAM solutions are suggestive of downstream organization, and this
may need to be reexamined at 01z.

..Karstens/Moore.. 11/07/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Fri Nov 07 2025/

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level shortwave
trough over eastern NE/KS moving into southwest IA/MO. This upper
feature will move into the OH Valley by mid evening and the central Appalachians by 08/12 UTC. Surface analysis indicates a cold front
over the middle MS Valley. The front will sweep east-southeast
across the OH/TN Valleys before reaching the Mid-Atlantic states and
northern portions of the central Gulf Coast states by early morning
Saturday.

...TN Valley into the southern Appalachians...
South-southwesterly low-level flow will act to gradually advect
richer moisture poleward within the warm conveyor and feature
surface dewpoints rising into the 56-58 deg F range across KY and
near 60 deg F across Middle TN by late afternoon. Perhaps equally consequential will be mid-level cold-air advection with 500-mb
temperatures forecast to significantly cool (e.g., -12 deg C at 12
UTC per the Nashville, TN 12 UTC raob to -16 to -17 deg C by 00
UTC). As a result, weak destabilization is forecast with MLCAPE
ranging from 200-500 J/kg over KY to 500-1000 J/kg across the TN
Valley. Model guidance continues to show scattered cellular storms
developing late this afternoon initially over the KY/TN border
vicinity, with storms developing farther south near the AL/TN border
during the evening. Forecast hodographs will support organized
storms with the stronger updrafts, including the possibility for a
few supercells. A tornado risk, in addition to the threat for
damaging gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail may accompany the
stronger storms. A mix of linear storm modes and supercells are
expected through the early to mid evening as this activity moves
east. Storms and the severe risk will probably lessen over the
southern Appalachians before diminishing overnight.

...Central Gulf Coast...
Greater low-level moisture is anticipated farther south across this
region. However, overall forcing for ascent, both synoptically and
along the front, will be weaker and mid-level temperature
considerably warmer. The primary forcing across this region will
likely be warm-air advection, which leads to greater uncertainty
regarding convective initiation, particularly given the cloud cover
expected. If an updraft is able to mature and persist, there will
likely be enough low-level helicity to support a limited tornado
risk.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 080048
SWODY1
SPC AC 080046

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0646 PM CST Fri Nov 07 2025

Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A severe threat will likely continue this evening from middle
Tennessee southward into northern Mississippi, where isolated
damaging wind gusts, a tornado and hail will be possible.

...Tennessee Valley/Central Gulf Coast States...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude mid-level
trough over the mid Mississippi Valley. A plume of mid-level
moisture extends from the Tennessee Valley northeastward into the
central Appalachians. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing within the southwestern part of this plume from eastern Kentucky southward into
middle Tennessee. The storms are located ahead of pre-frontal
trough, along a northeast-to-southwest moist axis where surface
dewpoints range from the mid 50s in Kentucky to the lower to mid 60s
F in middle Tennessee. The RAP has a pocket of instability along
this moist axis, with MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. In addition, the
Morristown, Tennessee WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km near 60 knots with 0-3
km storm-relative helicity around 350 m2/s2. This will support
supercells, and potentially an isolated tornado threat early this
evening. Steep lapse rates at low-levels could also support a
wind-damage threat...see MCD 2199. The severe threat is expected to
persist for a few more hours, as the storms gradually move eastward
toward the southern Appalachians.

Further south into the central Gulf Coast states, surface dewpoints
in the lower to mid 60s F are contributing to moderate instability.
The RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range from north-central
Alabama southward to the central Gulf Coast. Within this corridor,
the RAP shows moderate deep-layer shear, and relatively steep
low-level lapse rates. This could be sufficient for a marginal
severe threat. A few severe gusts and hail will be the primary
threats. The threat could persist into the early overnight period.

..Broyles.. 11/08/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 080601
SWODY1
SPC AC 080600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CST Sat Nov 08 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN
GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of marginally severe hail and isolated severe
wind gusts will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts
of far eastern Georgia and the Carolinas.

...Far Eastern Georgia/Carolinas...
At mid-levels, a trough will move quickly eastward into the Ozarks
today, as southwesterly cyclonic flow remains over much of the
eastern U.S. At the surface, a warm front will move into southern
North Carolina, as a moist airmass advects northward to the south of
the front. Surface dewpoints across this airmass will be in the 60s
F, and weak instability is expected to develop during the afternoon.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible as the mid-level system
approaches. In the late afternoon, RAP forecast soundings near
Charleston, South Carolina have MUCAPE increasing to around 1200
J/kg, with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. In addition, low-level lapse
rates are forecast to be steep in the lowest 1 km. This environment
could support marginally severe wind gusts and hail. Later this
evening, a band of storms is forecast to develop across the
Carolinas along the northwestern edge of the moist airmass. Along
this southwest-to-northeast corridor, a marginal severe threat may
be maintained through the evening as a low-level jet becomes
focused. However, the primary threat could gradually transition to
hail, as a sharp low-level temperature inversion develops.

..Broyles/Supinie.. 11/08/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 081245
SWODY1
SPC AC 081243

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 AM CST Sat Nov 08 2025

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of marginally severe hail and isolated severe
wind gusts will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts
of northern Georgia and the Carolinas.

...Synopsis...
A progressive upper pattern is expected today as a pair of shortwave
troughs progress across the central and eastern CONUS. The eastern
shortwave, which is currently over the Upper OH Valley, will
continue quickly eastward/northeastward, moving off the Northeast
coast by this afternoon. The western shortwave will dig
southeastward across the northern/central Plains, reaching the Lower
OH Valley by early tomorrow morning. Evolution of these shortwaves
will maintain a cyclonic belt of enhanced westerlies from the
central Plains through the Mid-Atlantic States throughout the
period.

At the surface, a weak frontal zone extends from central NY
southward to just off NJ and DE before arcing back southwestward
across central NC/far western SC and continuing west-southwestward
across the Southeast. Northern/eastern portion of this boundary will
remain progressive while the western portion stays largely in place
through the afternoon. During the evening, this boundary will likely
begin shifting northward as a warm front ahead of the next shortwave
and its associated surface low. Thunderstorm coverage will increase
during this time across eastern GA and the Carolinas.

...Northern GA and the Carolinas...
As mentioned in the synopsis, northward progression of a warm front
will bring increasing low-level moisture into GA and the Carolinas
this evening. A weak surface low will likely move across the region
as well. Much of the large-scale forcing for ascent will be
displaced north and west of the region, but a combination of
localized lift near the surface low and persistent warm-air
advection is still expected to result in increasing thunderstorm
coverage from the late afternoon through the evening. Buoyancy will
be modest, tempered by poor lapse rates, but vertical shear will be
strong, and the overall environment could support some more
organized updrafts. A more cellular mode is favored and hail appears
to be the primary severe risk, although a damaging gust or two is
also possible. Additionally, given favorable low-level wind
profiles, a low-probability tornado threat also exists, particularly
near the surface low. However, increasing low-level stability and
meager buoyancy should keep the tornado risk low.

...OH Valley...
Strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures will
support an arcing band of thunderstorms over the region, beginning
across central/southern IL and far western KY early Sunday morning.
The stronger mid-level flow will likely be displaced south of the
deeper convection and some low-level stability will be in place, but
a few stronger gusts could still reach the surface. Some small hail
is possible across the region as well.

..Mosier/Squitieri.. 11/08/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 081631
SWODY1
SPC AC 081629

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1029 AM CST Sat Nov 08 2025

Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS...AND IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated risk for severe thunderstorms is forecast this afternoon
and evening across parts of northern Georgia and the Carolinas.
Localized severe storms may also develop tonight across parts of the
lower Ohio Valley.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid-level vorticity maximum over
SD this morning, and this feature will move to western OH by early
Sunday morning. A large-scale trough with an associated belt of
strong cyclonic mid-level flow will envelope the area east of the
Rockies. In the low levels, a cold front extends from the
Mid-Atlantic states southwestward into the southern Appalachians and
becoming more diffuse with south extent. As a cyclone develops
eastward from MO this afternoon to the upper OH Valley late tonight,
the diffuse portion of the front will advance northward as a warm
frontal zone across the Carolinas.

...Northern GA and the Carolinas...
Previous forecast thinking of weak surface reflection appears
plausible near/immediately east of the southern Appalachians
tonight. The proximity to a moisture-rich airmass (surface
dewpoints 65-70 deg F) over southern-central GA and southern SC
lends some concern for stronger thunderstorm development late today
through this evening. Although forcing for ascent will be weak,
persistent warm-air advection will seemingly be the primary
mechanism for isolated to widely scattered storm chances. Mid-level
lapse rates will likely remain tempered and overall buoyancy being
weak, but forecast hodographs are quite favorable for storm
organization (i.e., supercell wind profile). Will maintain a
level-1 (Marginal) categorical risk for all hazards this outlook
update.

...OH Valley...
The aforementioned mid-level impulse and associated DCVA will
overspread scant low-level moisture across the OH Valley. Intense
forcing for ascent and cold-air advection in the mid levels will
support a linear cluster of weak, primarily elevated convection.
However, a few strong to locally severe gusts may accompany this
activity as it tracks eastward in tandem with the
eastward-developing cyclone overnight.

..Smith/Leitman.. 11/08/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 081957
SWODY1
SPC AC 081956

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CST Sat Nov 08 2025

Valid 082000Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated risk for severe thunderstorms is forecast this afternoon
and evening across parts of northern Georgia and the Carolinas.
Localized severe storms may also develop tonight across parts of the
lower Ohio Valley.

...20z Update...
Only minor adjustments were made to account for latest convective
trends. Recent observations show a gradual uptick in initially weak
convection across northern GA within a zone of modest low-level
convergence on the western fringe of diffuse frontal zone. Latest
ACARS soundings out of Atlanta, GA sampled strong mid and
upper-level flow supporting elongated hodographs as well as an
uncapped thermodynamic profile. Although mid-level lapse rates
remain modest, buoyancy appears adequate for robust convection,
which should organize into multicell clusters and perhaps a
supercell or two later this afternoon/evening. Uncertainty remains
high in overall storm coverage and mode given weak forcing for
ascent and mean flow oriented along the axis of convective
development (which should favor mixed storm modes). However, some
potential for large to perhaps very large hail is noted, but will be conditional on the development of discrete supercells. See the
previous discussion and forthcoming MCD #2200 for additional
details.

..Moore.. 11/08/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Nov 08 2025/

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid-level vorticity maximum over
SD this morning, and this feature will move to western OH by early
Sunday morning. A large-scale trough with an associated belt of
strong cyclonic mid-level flow will envelope the area east of the
Rockies. In the low levels, a cold front extends from the
Mid-Atlantic states southwestward into the southern Appalachians and
becoming more diffuse with south extent. As a cyclone develops
eastward from MO this afternoon to the upper OH Valley late tonight,
the diffuse portion of the front will advance northward as a warm
frontal zone across the Carolinas.

...Northern GA and the Carolinas...
Previous forecast thinking of weak surface reflection appears
plausible near/immediately east of the southern Appalachians
tonight. The proximity to a moisture-rich airmass (surface
dewpoints 65-70 deg F) over southern-central GA and southern SC
lends some concern for stronger thunderstorm development late today
through this evening. Although forcing for ascent will be weak,
persistent warm-air advection will seemingly be the primary
mechanism for isolated to widely scattered storm chances. Mid-level
lapse rates will likely remain tempered and overall buoyancy being
weak, but forecast hodographs are quite favorable for storm
organization (i.e., supercell wind profile). Will maintain a
level-1 (Marginal) categorical risk for all hazards this outlook
update.

...OH Valley...
The aforementioned mid-level impulse and associated DCVA will
overspread scant low-level moisture across the OH Valley. Intense
forcing for ascent and cold-air advection in the mid levels will
support a linear cluster of weak, primarily elevated convection.
However, a few strong to locally severe gusts may accompany this
activity as it tracks eastward in tandem with the
eastward-developing cyclone overnight.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 090052
SWODY1
SPC AC 090051

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 PM CST Sat Nov 08 2025

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN GEORGIA...THE CAROLINAS AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be
possible early this evening from eastern Georgia into parts of the
Carolinas. Hail may occur after midnight in the lower Ohio Valley.

...Eastern Georgia/Carolinas...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough over the
Ozarks with west-southwesterly flow located from the trough eastward
into the eastern U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass is located
from the Gulf Coast states extending northeastward into South
Carolina and southern North Carolina. A moist axis is located across
South Carolina, where surface dewpoints are in the 60s F. Near this
moist axis, the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Along
the northern edge of the stronger instability, scattered
thunderstorms are ongoing. The WSR-88D VWP near Columbia, South
Carolina has 0-6 km near 45 knots, which could be enough to support
a marginal severe threat early this evening, mainly with cells that
exhibit signs of rotation. Hail and isolated severe wind gusts would
be the primary threats. The threat is expected to diminish by mid
evening.

...Ohio Valley...
A mid-level trough will move eastward across the mid Mississippi
Valley tonight. Ahead of the trough, an axis of low-level moisture
is forecast to setup as a surface low moves eastward into the lower
Ohio Valley. Thunderstorm development is expected near the surface
low after midnight across northern Kentucky, southern Indiana and
far southwestern Ohio. Ahead of the trough, strong large-scale
ascent will overspread the lower Ohio Valley. In addition, RAP
forecast soundings just ahead of the surface low late tonight have
MUCAPE increasing into the 250 to 500 J/kg range, with effective
shear increasing to about 30 knots. This, combined with steep lapse
rates from 850 to 700 mb could be enough for hail with short-topped
cells.

..Broyles.. 11/09/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 090546
SWODY1
SPC AC 090545

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CST Sat Nov 08 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS....

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible today from parts of Florida northeastward into the eastern
Carolinas.

...Florida/Southern Georgia/Eastern Carolinas...
A large-scale mid-level trough will move eastward into the lower to
mid Mississippi Valley today, as an associated cold front advances
eastward into the southern and central Appalachians. Ahead of the
front, a moist airmass will be in place from Florida northeastward
into the eastern Carolinas, where surface dewpoints will be in the
60s F. As surface temperatures warm within this airmass during the
day, isolated thunderstorms will be possible near any thermal axis
or zone of low-level convergence that develops. In spite of only
weak instability, mid-level flow will increase across the southern
Atlantic Seaboard due to the approaching trough. This is evident on
RAP forecast soundings in the afternoon which increase 0-6 km shear
into the 40 to 50 knot range. In addition, forecast soundings across
the southern Atlantic Seaboard have MLCAPE peaking near 1000 J/kg
with 0-3 km lapse rates becoming steep by late afternoon. This
should support a marginal wind-damage threat with the stronger
multicells. A potential for hail is also expected to develop. The
marginal severe threat may continue into the early evening, mainly
across north-central Florida where instability is forecast to be the
strongest.

..Broyles/Supinie.. 11/09/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 091245
SWODY1
SPC AC 091243

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 AM CST Sun Nov 09 2025

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible today from parts of Florida northeastward into the eastern
Carolinas.

...Synopsis...
A trio of shortwave troughs will rotate through the primary upper
trough over the central and eastern CONUS today, resulting in
significant amplification to the overall upper pattern. By early
tomorrow morning, deep upper troughing will cover the central and
eastern CONUS with strong upper ridging over the western CONUS as
well.

Lead shortwave trough within the trio is currently moving east
across the OH Valley with an attendant surface low over southern OH.
A cold front extends southwestward from this low into the northwest
Gulf. A stalled frontal zone also exists from the southern Delmarva
Peninsula into northwest NC. The cold front is forecast to move
quickly eastward throughout the day, while the stalled front
transitions into a warm front and moves northward into more of the Mid-Atlantic. Thunderstorms are expected as this front interacts
with the modestly moist and buoyant airmass from the FL
Panhandle/northern FL through the Mid-Atlantic States.

...FL Panhandle/northern FL through the Mid-Atlantic...
Filtered heating of the modestly moist airmass over the region will
result in airmass destabilization. Poor lapse rates will limit
buoyancy, but the overall buoyancy should still be sufficient for
deep updrafts, particularly from the central FL Panhandle into
northern FL/southern GA where the highest temperatures are
anticipated. Thunderstorms are anticipated along and ahead of the
front as it quickly moves eastward across the region. Highest
thunderstorm coverage is expected across southern GA, with
decreasing coverage with northern extent.

Strong southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place as well,
supporting the potential for organized storm structures. However, front-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear suggest a linear
mode, with the fast-moving front likely undercutting updrafts
quickly. Even so, a few damaging gusts are possible, particularly
with any bowing structures that stay ahead of the front. Isolated
hail is possible as well, primarily in the FL/GA border vicinity
where buoyancy is greatest.

..Mosier/Squitieri.. 11/09/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 091617
SWODY1
SPC AC 091615

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1015 AM CST Sun Nov 09 2025

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FLORIDA
INTO THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early evening
from Florida northeastward into the coastal Carolinas.

...FL into the coastal Carolinas...
Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates significant amplification
of the large-scale eastern U.S. trough is occurring, and is due
primarily to a mid-level wave over the Mid South and an upstream
disturbance over the Upper Great Lakes. A cyclone over the upper OH
Valley will migrate east towards Long Island during the period as an
attendant cold front sweeps east/southeast across the Southeast and
Gulf of America.

The airmass ahead of the front over the Carolina coastal plain into
FL will gradually warm/destabilize and yield upwards of 1000-1500
J/kg of MLCAPE. Forecast soundings show effective shear magnitudes
supporting organized storms. However, tempered lapse rates (900-600
mb layer) in combination with front-parallel orientation of the
deep-layer shear and limited forcing for ascent ahead of the cold
front, will act to partially suppress greater storm coverage and the
overall severe risk given the magnitude of CAPE/shear. Nonetheless,
isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast along and ahead of
the front (perhaps into one or two small clusters over the FL
Peninsula into southern GA) as it progresses across the region. A
few damaging gusts are possible, particularly with any bowing
structures that stay ahead of the front. Isolated hail is possible
as well, primarily in the FL/GA border vicinity where buoyancy is
greatest.

..Smith/Wendt.. 11/09/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 091950
SWODY1
SPC AC 091949

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CST Sun Nov 09 2025

Valid 092000Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
TO NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND PARTS OF THE CAROLINA
COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early evening
from Florida northeastward into the coastal Carolinas.

...20z Update...
The primary forecast change was a removal of hail/wind risk
probabilities across portions of eastern NC. Multiple HRRR/RRFS/MPAS
runs have shown a consistent signal for the possibility of strong
updrafts/UH across northern FL, southern GA, and southeastern SC
associated with the intensifying convection over the FL
Panhandle/southwest GA. This aligns with recent
observations/analyses that depict the best thermodynamic and
kinematic environment roughly along the GA/FL line. Recent KTLH
imagery suggests that some of this convection is already becoming
undercut by the advancing cold front, so while embedded supercells
will remain possible in the near term, the trend should be towards
more clustered/linear storm modes through the evening with an
attendant risk for isolated hail/wind. Further north across NC/VA,
more aggressive CAM solutions hint that a robust storm or two may
develop through early evening, but recent ACARS soundings sampled
very weak low to mid-level lapse rates that should modulate updraft
intensities despite a favorable wind profile. This, combined with a
lackluster signal in guidance, limits confidence in the overall
severe threat.

..Moore.. 11/09/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Sun Nov 09 2025/

...FL into the coastal Carolinas...
Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates significant amplification
of the large-scale eastern U.S. trough is occurring, and is due
primarily to a mid-level wave over the Mid South and an upstream
disturbance over the Upper Great Lakes. A cyclone over the upper OH
Valley will migrate east towards Long Island during the period as an
attendant cold front sweeps east/southeast across the Southeast and
Gulf of America.

The airmass ahead of the front over the Carolina coastal plain into
FL will gradually warm/destabilize and yield upwards of 1000-1500
J/kg of MLCAPE. Forecast soundings show effective shear magnitudes
supporting organized storms. However, tempered lapse rates (900-600
mb layer) in combination with front-parallel orientation of the
deep-layer shear and limited forcing for ascent ahead of the cold
front, will act to partially suppress greater storm coverage and the
overall severe risk given the magnitude of CAPE/shear. Nonetheless,
isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast along and ahead of
the front (perhaps into one or two small clusters over the FL
Peninsula into southern GA) as it progresses across the region. A
few damaging gusts are possible, particularly with any bowing
structures that stay ahead of the front. Isolated hail is possible
as well, primarily in the FL/GA border vicinity where buoyancy is
greatest.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 100046
SWODY1
SPC AC 100045

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 PM CST Sun Nov 09 2025

Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail
will be possible early this evening across parts of north-central
Florida.

...North-central Florida...
A large-scale mid-level trough will move through the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys this evening. At the surface, a cold front will
advance eastward across the Carolinas, with the front extending
southwestward into northern Florida. Isolated thunderstorms will be
possible along and ahead of the front this evening. The RAP suggests
that moderate instability is present ahead of the front across
north-central Florida, where MLCAPE is estimated to be from 1000 to
1500 J/kg. This, combined with moderate deep-layer shear may support
a marginal severe threat early this evening. Cells that develop
within the stronger instability could produce marginally severe wind
gusts and hail, with the severe threat persisting for a few more
hours.

..Broyles.. 11/10/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 100540
SWODY1
SPC AC 100539

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 PM CST Sun Nov 09 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight across the
U.S.

...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale mid-level trough will move across the eastern U.S.
today to near the eastern Seaboard tonight. At the surface, cold
high pressure will settle into the southern Plains. This dry airmass
will dominate much of the nation. Isolated thunderstorms could occur
in south Florida near a front early in the day, and along the New
England coast near an inverted surface trough. Isolated lightning
strikes may also occur with snow over and near Lake Michigan. No
severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. today and
tonight.

..Broyles/Weinman.. 11/10/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 101243
SWODY1
SPC AC 101241

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0641 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight across the
U.S.

...Synopsis...
Deep upper troughing currently covers much of the central and
eastern CONUS, with upper ridging across the western CONUS. The
upper troughing is forecast to spread eastward throughout the day
while trending towards a more negative tilt. The western CONUS
ridging is expected to dampen as a shortwave trough progresses
through its northern periphery along the western US/Canada border
and into the northern High Plains/northern Plains. This evolution
will result in a less amplified upper pattern characterized by
northwesterly flow aloft by early Tuesday morning.

Surface pattern will be dominated by dry and stable high pressure
associated with a continental airmass. This will preclude
thunderstorms across the majority of the CONUS. The only exceptions
are across far south FL, and from far eastern MA into eastern ME.
Far south FL remains ahead of the cold front and could see isolated thunderstorms this morning. Warm-air advection near a surface low
expected to track across far eastern MA through eastern ME could
also support a few deeper convective cores capable of lightning.

..Mosier/Squitieri.. 11/10/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 101606
SWODY1
SPC AC 101604

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1004 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Valid 101630Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight across the
contiguous United States.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a longwave trough over the
eastern U.S., while a ridge resides over the West with a series of
disturbances moving east across the Canadian Rockies. The mid- to
upper-level low over IN this morning and associated cold pocket
yielded a November record low 500-mb temperature (-40.9 deg C)
sampled by the 12 UTC ILX raob at Lincoln, IL. This upper feature
will move east to NY/PA late tonight. A cold front over New England
this morning will push east of the coast later this afternoon. A
couple of lightning flashes may accompany weak convection from
eastern MA into Maine before ceasing later today. Farther south,
seasonably cool/dry air will continue pushing into the Gulf.

..Smith/Wendt.. 11/10/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 101948
SWODY1
SPC AC 101947

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight across the
contiguous United States.

...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the Day 1 Convective Outlook. See previous
discussion below for more info.

..Thornton.. 11/10/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025/

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a longwave trough over the
eastern U.S., while a ridge resides over the West with a series of
disturbances moving east across the Canadian Rockies. The mid- to
upper-level low over IN this morning and associated cold pocket
yielded a November record low 500-mb temperature (-40.9 deg C)
sampled by the 12 UTC ILX raob at Lincoln, IL. This upper feature
will move east to NY/PA late tonight. A cold front over New England
this morning will push east of the coast later this afternoon. A
couple of lightning flashes may accompany weak convection from
eastern MA into Maine before ceasing later today. Farther south,
seasonably cool/dry air will continue pushing into the Gulf.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 110046
SWODY1
SPC AC 110045

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Valid 110100Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S this evening
and tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale mid-level trough will move across the eastern U.S.
tonight. At the surface, high pressure will be in place from the
Great Plains eastward to the southern and central Appalachians. This
dry and cool airmass will make conditions unfavorable for
thunderstorms across most of the U.S. this evening into tonight. The
lone exception will be in northern New England where isolated storms
will be possible this evening. No severe threat is expected across
the continental U.S. through daybreak on Tuesday.

..Broyles.. 11/11/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 110536
SWODY1
SPC AC 110534

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A severe threat is not expected across the U.S. today or tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
Mid-level northwesterly flow will be in place today from the
Intermountain West to the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, a cool
and dry airmass over much of the nation will make conditions
unfavorable for thunderstorm development. No severe threat is
expected today and tonight.

..Broyles.. 11/11/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 111248
SWODY1
SPC AC 111246

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0646 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today or tonight.

...Synopsis...
Cyclone currently centered over northern NY/far eastern ON is
forecast to continue northeastward today, moving off the ME coast by
this evening. Northwesterly flow aloft will cover much of the
central and eastern CONUS in the wake of this cyclone, with a
low-amplitude shortwave trough moving within this northwesterly flow
from the northern Plains through the OH Valley. At the same time,
ridging will build over the western CONUS.

A dry and stable continental airmass will prevail across the CONUS
today, with notable airmass modification beginning across the
southern and central Plains. Strong surface high pressure currently
over the Southeast will result in offshore trajectories throughout
the first half of the period. As this high shifts
eastward/southeastward, southerly flow and moisture return will
begin across the TX Coast. Even with this moisture return, stable
conditions are expected to prevail, with no thunderstorms expected
across the CONUS today or tonight.

..Mosier/Squitieri.. 11/11/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 111603
SWODY1
SPC AC 111601

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1001 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Valid 111630Z - 121200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States
through tonight.

...Synopsis...
A large-scale mid-level trough over the East will be maintained as a
series of additional upstream disturbances over western Ontario and
the Upper Midwest act to reinforce troughing over the eastern U.S.
An arctic surface high centered over the northeast Gulf Coast will
result in seasonably cool/stable conditions east of the Rockies.
Farther west, a mid-level ridge will lead to tranquil conditions
across the Rockies to the Pacific coast.

..Smith/Wendt.. 11/11/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 111941
SWODY1
SPC AC 111939

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Valid 112000Z - 121200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States
through tonight.

...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous
discussion below for more information.

..Thornton.. 11/11/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025/

...Synopsis...
A large-scale mid-level trough over the East will be maintained as a
series of additional upstream disturbances over western Ontario and
the Upper Midwest act to reinforce troughing over the eastern U.S.
An arctic surface high centered over the northeast Gulf Coast will
result in seasonably cool/stable conditions east of the Rockies.
Farther west, a mid-level ridge will lead to tranquil conditions
across the Rockies to the Pacific coast.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 120050
SWODY1
SPC AC 120049

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Valid 120100Z - 121200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. through tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
Northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place tonight from the
Rockies eastward to the Appalachians. At the surface, an area of
high pressure will move across the Southeast. A dry and stable
airmass will remain in place over the U.S., making conditions
unfavorable for thunderstorm development.

..Broyles.. 11/12/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 120550
SWODY1
SPC AC 120549

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the coast of northern
California late tonight. No severe threat is forecast across the
U.S. today or tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level ridge will move across the Rockies today, as a trough
translates eastward toward the West Coast. As large-scale ascent
associated with the approaching trough moves into northern
California late tonight, isolated thunderstorms will become possible
near the coast. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorm
development is not expected today or tonight.

..Broyles/Weinman.. 11/12/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 121245
SWODY1
SPC AC 121244

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0644 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the coast of northern
California late tonight/early tomorrow. No severe threat is forecast
across the U.S. today or tonight.

...Synopsis...
A series of shortwave troughs will move from the Upper Midwest/Upper
Great Lakes through the Northeast, within the base of an upper
trough that extends across much of eastern Canada and the northeast
CONUS. At the same time, upper ridging will shift eastward through
the Intermountain West to the Rockies, ahead of a strong cyclone
forecast to approach the West Coast Thursday morning.

Modest southerly low-level flow will result in limited moisture
return across central/east TX and LA, with low 60s dewpoints
covering much of the TX Coastal Plain by tomorrow morning. Even so,
warm temperatures aloft and negligible forcing for ascent will
preclude any thunderstorms.

A frontal band associated with the West Coast cyclone will approach
the northern CA Coast late tonight/early tomorrow. Increasing
mid-level moisture will support modest buoyancy and the potential
for a few deeper convective cores, both within the band itself and
in the showers preceding it, as large-scale ascent spreads across
the region.

..Mosier/Squitieri.. 11/12/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 121629
SWODY1
SPC AC 121627

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1027 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Valid 121630Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the coast of northern
California late tonight/early tomorrow. No severe threat is forecast
across the U.S. today or tonight.

...Synopsis...

An amplified upper pattern will persist across the CONUS
today/tonight, characterized by a trough across the eastern states
and an upper ridge over the West. At the surface, a mostly
dry/stable airmass will be in place, precluding thunderstorm
activity for most of the forecast period.

Late tonight, an upper low will progress eastward eastern Pacific,
approaching the offshore waters near northern CA. As height falls
overspread the Pacific coast, a surface low will deepen offshore. A
line of elevated convection is expected to develop ahead of a cold
front and move onshore in the 08-12z time frame. Cooling aloft will
support weak elevated instability, and isolated thunderstorms will
be possible. Severe storms are not expected.

..Leitman.. 11/12/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 121952
SWODY1
SPC AC 121951

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Valid 122000Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms remain possible along the coast of northern
California late tonight/early tomorrow. No severe threat is forecast
across the U.S. today or tonight.

...20z Update...
No changes were made to the current outlook. Isolated thunderstorms
remain possible late tonight ahead of an upper trough moving onshore
over northern CA near 12z. Severe potential is low, see the prior
outlook for more info.

..Lyons.. 11/12/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025/

...Synopsis...

An amplified upper pattern will persist across the CONUS
today/tonight, characterized by a trough across the eastern states
and an upper ridge over the West. At the surface, a mostly
dry/stable airmass will be in place, precluding thunderstorm
activity for most of the forecast period.

Late tonight, an upper low will progress eastward eastern Pacific,
approaching the offshore waters near northern CA. As height falls
overspread the Pacific coast, a surface low will deepen offshore. A
line of elevated convection is expected to develop ahead of a cold
front and move onshore in the 08-12z time frame. Cooling aloft will
support weak elevated instability, and isolated thunderstorms will
be possible. Severe storms are not expected.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 130059
SWODY1
SPC AC 130057

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Valid 130100Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Minimal chances of isolated thunderstorms remain possible along the
coast of northern California late tonight/early tomorrow. Severe
weather is unlikely.

...Synopsis...
A deep upper low will approach the West Coast tonight and into
Thursday, with gradual cooling aloft as well as midlevel moistening
and lift. Minimal elevated instability of perhaps 100-200 J/kg may
develop, supporting sporadic lightning flashes as precipitation
develops ahead of the wave overnight into coastal northern
California. Despite strong wind fields, surface-based CAPE will
remain near zero, and as such severe storms are not forecast.

..Jewell.. 11/13/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 130557
SWODY1
SPC AC 130556

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Minimal thunderstorm chances are evident today over parts of central California. Severe weather is not forecast.

...Synopsis...
An upper low within a positive-tilt upper trough will slowly move
eastward toward the West Coast today, with abundant midlevel
moisture and lift overspreading much of CA. Within the moist plume,
forecast soundings indicate minimal instability during the day,
mostly elevated in nature. Despite strong veering wind profiles with
height, shear is expected to be ineffective as SBCAPE remains near
zero.

Elsewhere, an upper trough will remain over the eastern states with
northwest flow from the Plains across the MS Valley. A surface high
will remain over much of the east, with little to no instability for thunderstorms.

..Jewell.. 11/13/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 131244
SWODY1
SPC AC 131243

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Minimal thunderstorm chances are evident today over parts of central California. Severe weather is not forecast.

...Synopsis...
A cyclone, embedded within the southern periphery of a large upper
trough, will gradually progress toward the central CA coast
throughout the period. Moist southwesterly flow aloft ahead of this
cyclone will continue to spread eastward/northeastward across CA and
OR. Modest elevated buoyancy is anticipated within this moist plume,
supporting the potential for deeper convective elements capable of isolated/sporadic lightning flashes. Strong vertical shear is in
place, but the very weak buoyancy and transient nature of any deeper
updrafts will limit its efficacy.

Farther east, surface high pressure will remain over much of the
eastern CONUS, promoting dry and stable conditions. Some modest
moisture return is anticipated across the southern Plains and Lower
MS Valley but warm temperatures aloft and negligible forcing will
preclude thunderstorm development.

..Mosier.. 11/13/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 131623
SWODY1
SPC AC 131621

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1021 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Valid 131630Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Minimal thunderstorm chances are evident today over parts of central California. Severe weather is not forecast.

...Synopsis...
A deep upper-level trough will gradually move eastward over the
Pacific Coast region today. An embedded deep-layer cyclone is
forecast to gradually weaken as it moves east-southeastward off of
the northern CA coast. The low/midlevel moisture plume associated
with this system will continue to overspread parts of CA through the
period. Weak buoyancy (MUCAPE of 100-200 J/kg) within this moist
plume will support isolated/sporadic lightning potential with
embedded convective elements, especially where orographic lift is
maximized in the vicinity of the Sierra Nevada. While low-level
flow/shear will remain rather strong into this afternoon, negligible surface-based instability should limit potential for convectively
augmented gusts.

Elsewhere, cold midlevel temperatures will support weak convection
over parts of the Northeast, though the greatest relative lightning
potential is expected to remain offshore of southern New England.
Some elevated buoyancy may develop late tonight across parts of
MO/IL, along the northern periphery of modest 850 mb moisture
return, but there is minimal signal for development of deep
convection in this region prior to the end of the period.

..Dean.. 11/13/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 131944
SWODY1
SPC AC 131942

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Valid 132000Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Minimal thunderstorm chances are evident today over parts of central California. Severe weather is not forecast.

...20z Update...
No changes were made to the prior outlook. Isolated thunderstorms
remain possible beneath an upper low over central CA and near the
New England Coast. However, limited moisture and very weak buoyancy
should keep severe potential very low. See the prior outlook for
more information.

..Lyons.. 11/13/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025/

...Synopsis...
A deep upper-level trough will gradually move eastward over the
Pacific Coast region today. An embedded deep-layer cyclone is
forecast to gradually weaken as it moves east-southeastward off of
the northern CA coast. The low/midlevel moisture plume associated
with this system will continue to overspread parts of CA through the
period. Weak buoyancy (MUCAPE of 100-200 J/kg) within this moist
plume will support isolated/sporadic lightning potential with
embedded convective elements, especially where orographic lift is
maximized in the vicinity of the Sierra Nevada. While low-level
flow/shear will remain rather strong into this afternoon, negligible surface-based instability should limit potential for convectively
augmented gusts.

Elsewhere, cold midlevel temperatures will support weak convection
over parts of the Northeast, though the greatest relative lightning
potential is expected to remain offshore of southern New England.
Some elevated buoyancy may develop late tonight across parts of
MO/IL, along the northern periphery of modest 850 mb moisture
return, but there is minimal signal for development of deep
convection in this region prior to the end of the period.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 140049
SWODY1
SPC AC 140048

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Minimal thunderstorm chances remain possible this evening over parts
of central California. Severe weather is not forecast.

...Discussion...
Scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms persist this
evening into parts of the Sierra, with activity affecting coastal
areas to the south as well. The 00Z sounding from VBG does show
minimal MUCAPE rooted around 850 mb, suggesting continued lightning
flash potential as the large, positive-tilt upper trough slowly
moves east. Instability is forecast to dwindle overnight, with a
corresponding decrease in elevated convection.

..Jewell.. 11/14/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 140531
SWODY1
SPC AC 140530

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm activity is forecast to be minimal across the majority
of the U.S. today. Isolated weak activity may affect parts of
southern California into Saturday morning.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A positive-tilt upper trough will be just off the West Coast Friday
morning, with an offshore upper low translating southward through
the period. A stronger disturbance is forecast to rotate around the
base of this trough into Saturday morning, with midlevel winds
increasing and becoming nearly southerly as cooling aloft
approaches.

At the surface, low pressure will deepen late in the period off the
coast of southern CA and toward the Channel Islands. Precipitation
will increase in coverage at that time, with a few lightning flashes
possible mainly offshore. Low-level wind fields and shear will be
modest, and SBCAPE should remain near zero through 12Z Saturday over
land. As such, overall thunderstorm activity should be minimal over
land.

Elsewhere, an upper ridge will temporarily exist from the southern
Plains into the Great Lakes before the base of a broadening upper
trough moves into the northern Plains and upper Midwest. High
pressure over the southeast combined with strongly veering low-level
winds should keep conditions stable over those areas through 12Z
Saturday.

..Jewell/Moore.. 11/14/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 141230
SWODY1
SPC AC 141228

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0628 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may impact parts of southern California late
tonight into early Saturday morning, but organized severe
thunderstorms are not forecast.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A positively tilted upper trough off the West Coast will evolve into
a closed low through the period as it moves slowly southward
along/near the coast of central/southern CA. An associated surface
low should develop towards the coastal southern CA late tonight into
early Saturday morning. Instability across this area is forecast to
remain very weak, with poor lapse rates aloft present. Even so,
low-topped convection may occasionally reach levels sufficient for
charge separation and lightning flashes as it moves onshore across
parts of southern CA late tonight. Low-level winds are expected to
remain modest, but south-southwesterly flow will strengthen with
height through mid/upper levels. While strong/gusty winds may occur
in the higher terrain, the overall severe threat should be hampered
by minimal instability and weak low-level shear.

..Gleason/Broyles.. 11/14/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 141612
SWODY1
SPC AC 141610

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1010 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may impact parts of southern California late
tonight into early Saturday morning, but organized severe
thunderstorms are not expected.

...Discussion...
Within prevalent split upper flow over western North America, a
southern-stream closed low off the coast of California will slowly
approach with the parent trough taking on a more neutral/slight
negative tilt over time. Showers/some thunderstorms will increase
toward the coast late tonight through early Saturday with the
approach of a frontal band. Instability is forecast to remain very
weak, with poor lapse rates aloft. Nevertheless, low-topped
convection may occasionally reach levels sufficient for charge
separation and lightning flashes as it approaches the coast and
moves onshore across parts of southern California late tonight and
early Saturday. Low-level winds are expected to remain modest, but south-southwesterly flow will strengthen with height through
mid/upper levels. While strong/gusty winds may occur in the higher
terrain, the overall severe threat should be limited by minimal
instability and weak low-level shear.

..Guyer/Smith.. 11/14/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 141957
SWODY1
SPC AC 141956

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Valid 142000Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may impact parts of southern California late
tonight into early Saturday morning, but organized severe
thunderstorms are not expected.

...20z Update...
No changes were made to the prior valid outlook. Isolated
thunderstorms remain possible over parts of southern CA this evening
and into early Saturday. Severe weather is unlikely given the very
weak buoyancy and shallow nature of convection. See the previous
discussion for more information.

..Lyons.. 11/14/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025/

...Discussion...
Within prevalent split upper flow over western North America, a
southern-stream closed low off the coast of California will slowly
approach with the parent trough taking on a more neutral/slight
negative tilt over time. Showers/some thunderstorms will increase
toward the coast late tonight through early Saturday with the
approach of a frontal band. Instability is forecast to remain very
weak, with poor lapse rates aloft. Nevertheless, low-topped
convection may occasionally reach levels sufficient for charge
separation and lightning flashes as it approaches the coast and
moves onshore across parts of southern California late tonight and
early Saturday. Low-level winds are expected to remain modest, but south-southwesterly flow will strengthen with height through
mid/upper levels. While strong/gusty winds may occur in the higher
terrain, the overall severe threat should be limited by minimal
instability and weak low-level shear.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 150037
SWODY1
SPC AC 150035

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0635 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may impact parts of southern California late
tonight into early Saturday morning, but organized severe
thunderstorms are not expected.

...01z Update...

Early-evening satellite imagery depicts a notable upper trough off
the southern CA Coast. This feature is forecast to drop south
overnight as 500mb speed max digs into the base of the trough west
of the northern Baja Peninsula. Net result will be weak midlevel
height falls along the southern CA Coast through sunrise. While the
associated surface front will not surge inland until later in the
day2 period, weak midlevel buoyancy is expected to develop after 06z
which may prove sufficient for a few flashes of lightning within pre
frontal warm conveyor elevated convection.

..Darrow.. 11/15/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 150524
SWODY1
SPC AC 150523

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Showers and a few thunderstorms may be accompanied by strong wind
gusts across parts of the upper Ohio Valley late this afternoon and
evening.

...Ohio Valley...

Strong large-scale midlevel height falls will spread across the
Great Lakes/Ohio Valley later today in advance of a short-wave
trough that will dig into the Great Lakes by 16/00z. Associated cold
front will surge to a position from southern ON-northern OH-central
IN by late afternoon and this feature is expected to serve as the
focus for isolated thunderstorms. Latest model guidance is not
particularly aggressive in boundary-layer destabilization with
surface temperatures forecast to warm into the lower 60s along the
OH river into southern OH, with upper 50s expected downstream across
western PA. These temperatures would yield a few hundred J/kg
uncapped SBCAPE by late afternoon within a strongly sheared
environment. HREF guidance suggests weak frontal convection should
evolve between 16/00-02z across eastern OH/western PA. This activity
will spread downstream, but likely weaken fairly quickly in the
absence of meaningful buoyancy over central PA. Strong wind gusts
are the primary concern.

...Southern CA...

Strong 500mb speed max will translate through the base of the
offshore trough toward the northern Baja Peninsula by 18z, with
high-level diffluent flow forecast across southern CA/lower CO River
Valley. Latest guidance suggests the associated cold front will
surge inland after 18z-19z, and cooling post frontal profiles will
lead to a bit more instability that should favor lightning within
deeper convective updrafts. Pre frontal convection is expected to be
weakly buoyant and updrafts should reflect this poor instability air
mass. While post frontal destabilization may lead to more robust
updrafts, weaker shear does not appear particularly favorable for
severe wind, but some small hail could be noted. Will not introduce
severe probabilities for these reasons.

..Darrow/Moore.. 11/15/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 151232
SWODY1
SPC AC 151230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Valid 151300Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms may be accompanied by strong wind
gusts across parts of the upper Ohio Valley late this afternoon and
evening.

...Ohio Valley...
Large-scale ascent will spread across the OH Valley today ahead of a
mid-level shortwave trough that will dig across the Great Lakes by
this evening. An associated surface low will develop eastward across
southern Ontario, with a cold front extending southward across the
OH Valley/Midwest. This front will serve as the primary focus for
isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Only modest
daytime heating is forecast ahead of the front, which combined with
limited low-level moisture should temper the amount of surface-based instability that can develop. Even so, a strongly sheared
environment is expected given the strength of the low/mid-level flow
forecast. Recent high-resolution guidance suggests weak frontal
convection should develop by late afternoon/early evening across
eastern OH/western PA and vicinity. Strong to locally damaging wind
gusts are the primary concern, with convection expected to weaken
with eastward extent into central PA this evening due to meager
instability with the loss of daytime heating.

...Southern California/Southwest...
A strong (60-80 kt) 500 mb speed maximum will translate through the
base of an upper trough and develop towards the northern Baja
Peninsula by midday, with high-level diffluent flow forecast across
southern CA and the Lower CO River Valley. Recent guidance continues
to suggest an associated surface front will move inland later today,
and cooling post-frontal thermal profiles aloft will lead to weak
instability that should favor occasional lightning within deeper
convective updrafts. Pre-frontal convection is expected to be only
weakly buoyant across the Lower CO River Valley due to poor lapse
rates, which should limit updraft strength. While post-frontal
destabilization may lead to more robust updrafts, weaker shear in
this regime does not appear favorable for severe winds, but small
hail could occur.

..Gleason/Broyles.. 11/15/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 151632
SWODY1
SPC AC 151630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Valid 151630Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN OHIO
INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe gusts are possible across parts of the upper Ohio
Valley late this afternoon and evening.

...Upper Ohio Valley...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level trough over
the Upper Great Lakes. This mid-level trough will quickly move east
into the Lower Great Lakes vicinity by early evening with an
attendant increase in large-scale forcing for ascent expected to
spread across the Upper OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes regions.
Although primary cyclone development will occur from eastern Lake
Superior eastward to the VT/Quebec region, a cold front will push
southeastward across the Great Lakes into the central Appalachians
during the period. Despite low-level theta-e advection into the
region from the lower OH Valley, the overall magnitude of
destabilization will be limited in part due to considerable cloud
cover thwarting greater heating. Models show surface dewpoints
rising into the upper 50s beneath a capping inversion by late
afternoon. Weak instability and the aforementioned forcing will aid
in the eventual development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms
probably in the form of one primary band of convection towards early
evening. Strong to locally damaging wind gusts are the primary
concern, with convection expected to weaken with eastward extent
into central PA this evening due to meager instability with the loss
of daytime heating.

...Southern California/Southwest...
A potent mid-level speed max translating through the base of a
trough west of southern CA/Baja CA will move into the Mojave Desert
later today. Pockets of weak instability will likely develop today
and favor isolated bouts of deeper convection across southern CA
into the lower CO River Valley. Despite strengthening mid-level
flow fields, muted lapse rates will likely limit storm intensity and
the propensity for strong/locally damaging gusts.

..Smith/Marsh.. 11/15/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 151944
SWODY1
SPC AC 151942

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Valid 152000Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN OHIO
INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe gusts are possible across parts of the upper Ohio
Valley late this afternoon and evening.

...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. A few
occasional stronger cores have been noted near the warm front across
western New York into southern Ontario. Overall, limited moisture
and poor thermodynamics have limited the severe threat. Further
south across the upper Ohio Valley, additional convective
development is expected along the front later this afternoon. Though
mid-level cloud cover has prevailed, dew points in the 50s are
observed across Ohio into northern West Virginia and Pennsylvania.
Here a narrow region of weak instability overlapping with increasing
forcing for ascent will support potential for locally damaging
gusts.

..Thornton.. 11/15/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025/

...Upper Ohio Valley...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level trough over
the Upper Great Lakes. This mid-level trough will quickly move east
into the Lower Great Lakes vicinity by early evening with an
attendant increase in large-scale forcing for ascent expected to
spread across the Upper OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes regions.
Although primary cyclone development will occur from eastern Lake
Superior eastward to the VT/Quebec region, a cold front will push
southeastward across the Great Lakes into the central Appalachians
during the period. Despite low-level theta-e advection into the
region from the lower OH Valley, the overall magnitude of
destabilization will be limited in part due to considerable cloud
cover thwarting greater heating. Models show surface dewpoints
rising into the upper 50s beneath a capping inversion by late
afternoon. Weak instability and the aforementioned forcing will aid
in the eventual development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms
probably in the form of one primary band of convection towards early
evening. Strong to locally damaging wind gusts are the primary
concern, with convection expected to weaken with eastward extent
into central PA this evening due to meager instability with the loss
of daytime heating.

...Southern California/Southwest...
A potent mid-level speed max translating through the base of a
trough west of southern CA/Baja CA will move into the Mojave Desert
later today. Pockets of weak instability will likely develop today
and favor isolated bouts of deeper convection across southern CA
into the lower CO River Valley. Despite strengthening mid-level
flow fields, muted lapse rates will likely limit storm intensity and
the propensity for strong/locally damaging gusts.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 160050
SWODY1
SPC AC 160049

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe gusts are possible across parts of the upper Ohio
Valley through late evening.

00 UTC surface observations show a cold front pushing eastward
across the Midwest/OH River Valley. Recent radar imagery shows the
initial development of weak thunderstorms along/ahead of the front,
which are expected to increase in coverage through 04 UTC across
portions of the upper OH Valley. VWP observations are currently
sampling 40-50 knot winds within the lowest kilometer, which may
manifest at the surface as strong, damaging wind gusts within the
deeper convective cores. Additionally, the strong low-level flow is
supporting 0-1 km SRH values on the order of 400 m2/2. While
typically a concerning value, the meager buoyancy in place across
the region (MLCAPE of around 150-200 J/kg per recent ILN and PIT
soundings) and residual capping near 750 mb should modulate overall
updraft intensities and the potential for a tornado threat. CAM
guidance seems to support this idea with negligible updraft speed/UH
signals noted among recent HRRR/RRFS/MPAS runs. As such, the
predominant threat should remain damaging gusts through the 04 to 06
UTC period.

..Moore.. 11/16/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 160528
SWODY1
SPC AC 160526

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Four Corners states
and along the California coast late tonight. Severe storms are not
expected.

...Western U.S...

Large-scale pattern does not appear particularly favorable for
robust convection across the CONUS Sunday. Even so, isolated
thunderstorms are expected across a few areas of the western U.S.,
primarily ahead of two strong troughs. The lead midlevel trough will
eject across the lower CO River Valley early in the period with
high-level diffluent flow spreading across the Four Corners region
during the afternoon. This feature will eject as a negative-tilted
trough resulting in cool midlevel temperatures and steep lapse
rates. Forecast soundings exhibit meager instability, but likely
adequate for lightning in the strongest updrafts.

A secondary trough is forecast to approach the northern CA Coast
during the latter half of the period. 500mb speed max will dig
toward the back side of this feature, but not advance inland until
later in the day2 period. At this time it appears the synoptic front
will approach the northern CA Coast around 17/12z, along with a bit
more instability beneath the approaching trough. Most lightning
activity should remain offshore, but isolated storms may approach
the Coast by the end of the period.

..Darrow/Moore.. 11/16/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 161234
SWODY1
SPC AC 161232

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0632 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Four Corners states
today and parts of California mainly late tonight. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough/low over CA this morning will move
east-northeastward across the Great Basin/Southwest today while
acquiring a negative tilt. Although low-level moisture will remain
quite limited, cool temperatures and modestly steepened lapse rates
aloft associated with the upper trough/low may support convection
deep enough to generate occasional lightning flashes across parts of
the Four Corners states into WY. A separate upper trough will
approach the West Coast late tonight, with large-scale ascent
associated with a strong mid-level jet overspreading parts of CA.
Isolated thunderstorms may occur along/ahead of a cold front tonight
through early Monday morning across this area. For all regions, weak instability is expected to preclude organized severe thunderstorms,
although gusty winds may occur with the stronger cores.

..Gleason/Broyles.. 11/16/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 161618
SWODY1
SPC AC 161617

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1017 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Valid 161630Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Four Corners states
today and parts of California mainly late tonight. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
A broad upper trough will eject into the Atlantic as a second upper
trough, with multiple embedded impulses, overspreads the Interior
West today. The first of the two mid-level impulses will approach
the Rockies while the second impulse impinges on the CA coastline,
especially late in the period. Cooler temperatures aloft, associated
with each impulse, will overspread both the central/southern Rockies
and the CA coast, resulting in scant buoyancy. While instability
will be meager in both regions, strong deep-layer ascent with the aforementioned buoyancy may support isolated to potentially
scattered thunderstorm development today into tonight.

..Squitieri.. 11/16/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 161950
SWODY1
SPC AC 161948

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Valid 162000Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Four Corners states
today and parts of California mainly late tonight. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected.

...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous
discussion below for more information.

..Thornton.. 11/16/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025/

...Synopsis...
A broad upper trough will eject into the Atlantic as a second upper
trough, with multiple embedded impulses, overspreads the Interior
West today. The first of the two mid-level impulses will approach
the Rockies while the second impulse impinges on the CA coastline,
especially late in the period. Cooler temperatures aloft, associated
with each impulse, will overspread both the central/southern Rockies
and the CA coast, resulting in scant buoyancy. While instability
will be meager in both regions, strong deep-layer ascent with the aforementioned buoyancy may support isolated to potentially
scattered thunderstorm development today into tonight.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 170055
SWODY1
SPC AC 170054

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Valid 170100Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Four Corners states
and parts of California through late tonight. Severe thunderstorms
are not expected.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery depicts an upper trough passing over the Four
Corners region with a second upper wave approaching the CA coast.
Thunderstorm chances overnight will be associated with these two
features as lift ahead of the waves drives weak convection. Over the
Four Corners, weak buoyancy (sampled by the 00z ABQ sounding) will
continue to wane with thunderstorm coverage likely decreasing
through 12z across the region. Across CA, thunderstorm coverage will
likely increase through early morning as the upper wave moves
onshore, though overall buoyancy profiles will remain too limited
for robust convection. A few strikes appear possible around 12z
Monday across parts of the Texarkana region within a warm frontal
zone, but recent model consensus suggests thunderstorm coverage
should remain below 10% through the end of the forecast period.

..Moore.. 11/17/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 170543
SWODY1
SPC AC 170541

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible this evening into early Tuesday
morning across parts of the central/northern Plains into the Ozarks
and mid Mississippi Valley. Additional storms are possible across
the Southwest and central California. A few strong storms are
possible in the Midwest, but severe-thunderstorm potential appears
low at this time.

...Synopsis...
05 UTC satellite imagery depicts a progressive upper wave traversing
the central Rockies. Ahead of this feature, a broad low/mid-level
baroclinic zone was analyzed from the central Plains southeastward
into the lower MS River Valley. This diffuse boundary is expected to
lift northward as an effective warm frontal zone as
south/southwesterly winds strengthen ahead of the approaching upper
wave. Strong isentropic ascent and moistening near 850 mb should
support isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms from the
northern Plains into the Midwest/mid-MS River Valley. Across the
West, a second upper trough will continue to dig southward along the
CA coast. Cold temperatures aloft combined with broad scale ascent
should promote isolated, though weak, thunderstorms.

...Mid-MS Valley...
50-60 knot mid-level flow associated with the upper wave will
overspread much of MO/IL during the overnight hours as isentropic
ascent increases and thunderstorm coverage is maximized. While wind
profiles appear to show adequate deep-layer shear for organized
convection, most forecast soundings depict modest lapse rates and
narrow buoyancy profiles, which should modulate overall updraft
intensities. This limitation is reflected in recent CAM solutions,
which uniformly show very weak signals for strong updrafts or UH
tracks. Consequently, confidence in a severe threat remains too
limited for risk probabilities, but a few instances of
small/near-severe hail appear possible.

..Moore/Darrow.. 11/17/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 171236
SWODY1
SPC AC 171234

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0634 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms should occur this evening and overnight
across parts of the northern/central Plains into the Ozarks and mid
Mississippi Valley. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible across
the Southwest and central California. A few strong thunderstorms may
occur across parts of Missouri and southern Illinois late tonight,
but organized severe thunderstorm potential appears low.

...Synopsis...
A pair of upper troughs/lows will impact the CONUS today. The
leading upper trough/low will progress eastward over the central
Plains though this evening, eventually reaching the mid MS Valley
late tonight. Farther west, a separate upper trough/low will develop
slowly southward across coastal CA through the period. With
seasonably cool temperatures and modestly steepened lapse rates
aloft associated with the western U.S. trough/low, isolated
thunderstorms may occur across parts of CA and the lower CO River
Valley/AZ. Meager instability across these areas should limit the
threat for organized severe thunderstorms. Father east, isolated to
scattered thunderstorms should develop this evening/overnight from
portions of the northern/central Plains into the MO and mid MS
Valleys. The bulk of this activity is expected to remain elevated,
with minimal severe potential.

...Ozarks into the Mid Mississippi Valley...
Low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across the
southern Plains and lower/mid MS Valley ahead of a weak surface low
and cold front related to the lead upper trough/low. Latest NAM/RAP
forecast soundings across the surface warm sector this
afternoon/evening continue to show a substantial cap in place, which
combined with negligible large-scale ascent should act to inhibit
surface-based convective development. Low-level warm/moist advection
is expected to increase this evening/overnight as a southwesterly
low-level jet strengthens over the Ozarks/mid MS Valley. Most
guidance shows weak MUCAPE (around 500-1000 J/kg) with modest
mid-level lapse rates present. This should tend to limit the updraft
strength of scattered elevated convection that is forecast develop
tonight across MO into parts of southern IL, even in the presence of
moderate to strong deep-layer shear. While small/sub-severe hail may
occur with the stronger cores, the threat for severe hail appears
too limited to include low probabilities with this update.

..Gleason/Broyles.. 11/17/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 171622
SWODY1
SPC AC 171621

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1021 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Valid 171630Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO FAR WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms should occur this evening and overnight
across parts of the northern/central Plains into the Ozarks and mid
Mississippi Valley. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible across
the Southwest and central California. A few strong thunderstorms
capable of producing hail may occur across parts of Missouri and
western Illinois late tonight.

...Ozarks into the Mid Mississippi Valley...
Shortwave trough currently moving across the central Rockies will
continue eastward across the central Plains, reaching the Mid MS
Valley by early tomorrow. Mass response ahead of this wave will
support continued low-level moisture advection, with low 60s
dewpoints likely reaching far southeast KS/far southwest MO by early
tomorrow morning. Mid 60s dewpoints will likely cover much of
eastern OK and western AR. The stronger large-scale ascent will
remain displaced west and north of the better low-level moisture,
and strong convective inhibition will preclude surface-based storms
throughout the period. However, persistent theta-e advection
throughout the warm conveyor will promote elevated buoyancy and the
potential for multiple rounds of elevated thunderstorms from the
Ozarks northeastward into the Mid MS Valley.

The initial round of deeper convection is expected across the
central MO vicinity this afternoon near the terminus of a 35-40 kt
low-level jet. Buoyancy will remain modest, but there is enough
shear within the cloud-bearing layer for updraft rotation and the
production of isolated hail. Continued warm-air advection will
result in further low-level warming and moistening, increasing the
elevated buoyancy tonight. This buoyancy coupled with glancing
large-scale ascent and a strengthening low-level jet could result in
additional thunderstorms farther south and west into southwest MO,
as well as increased coverage and intensity of any ongoing
thunderstorms from central MO into far west-central IL. Moderate to
strong vertical shear will continue to support rotation within any
deep and persistent updrafts, with an attendant threat for isolated
hail.

...CA into the Southwest...
Upper low currently off the northern CA coast will continue
southward throughout the day, ending the period over the San Luis
Obispo/Santa Barbara/Ventura county vicinity. Sporadic thunderstorms
are possible near this upper low, where cold mid-level temperature
and strong forcing for ascent are anticipated. A
non-lightning-producing band will move through the southern CA
coastal counties ahead of this low. Isolated lightning flashes are
also possible farther east within the warm conveyor over the Lower
CO River Valley and western AZ. Meager instability should limit the
threat for organized severe thunderstorms across the entire region.

..Mosier/Thornton.. 11/17/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 171950
SWODY1
SPC AC 171949

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Valid 172000Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI AND FAR WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms should occur this evening and overnight
across parts of the northern/central Plains into the Ozarks and mid
Mississippi Valley. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible across
the Southwest and central California. A few strong thunderstorms
capable of producing hail may occur across parts of Missouri and
western Illinois late tonight.

...20Z Update...
A few modest changes to the general thunderstorm forecast as well as
the Marginal in southwest MO/northwest AR based on recent
observation/trends in guidance. The forecast otherwise remains on
track. See the previous discussion for additional information.

..Wendt.. 11/17/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025/

...Ozarks into the Mid Mississippi Valley...
Shortwave trough currently moving across the central Rockies will
continue eastward across the central Plains, reaching the Mid MS
Valley by early tomorrow. Mass response ahead of this wave will
support continued low-level moisture advection, with low 60s
dewpoints likely reaching far southeast KS/far southwest MO by early
tomorrow morning. Mid 60s dewpoints will likely cover much of
eastern OK and western AR. The stronger large-scale ascent will
remain displaced west and north of the better low-level moisture,
and strong convective inhibition will preclude surface-based storms
throughout the period. However, persistent theta-e advection
throughout the warm conveyor will promote elevated buoyancy and the
potential for multiple rounds of elevated thunderstorms from the
Ozarks northeastward into the Mid MS Valley.

The initial round of deeper convection is expected across the
central MO vicinity this afternoon near the terminus of a 35-40 kt
low-level jet. Buoyancy will remain modest, but there is enough
shear within the cloud-bearing layer for updraft rotation and the
production of isolated hail. Continued warm-air advection will
result in further low-level warming and moistening, increasing the
elevated buoyancy tonight. This buoyancy coupled with glancing
large-scale ascent and a strengthening low-level jet could result in
additional thunderstorms farther south and west into southwest MO,
as well as increased coverage and intensity of any ongoing
thunderstorms from central MO into far west-central IL. Moderate to
strong vertical shear will continue to support rotation within any
deep and persistent updrafts, with an attendant threat for isolated
hail.

...CA into the Southwest...
Upper low currently off the northern CA coast will continue
southward throughout the day, ending the period over the San Luis
Obispo/Santa Barbara/Ventura county vicinity. Sporadic thunderstorms
are possible near this upper low, where cold mid-level temperature
and strong forcing for ascent are anticipated. A
non-lightning-producing band will move through the southern CA
coastal counties ahead of this low. Isolated lightning flashes are
also possible farther east within the warm conveyor over the Lower
CO River Valley and western AZ. Meager instability should limit the
threat for organized severe thunderstorms across the entire region.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 180043
SWODY1
SPC AC 180042

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Valid 180100Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MISSOURI REGION...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms, capable of producing hail, may occur
across parts of Missouri and western Illinois tonight.

...01z Update...

Upper ridge is beginning to flatten across the MS Valley as midlevel
height falls spread into this region ahead of a progressive
short-wave trough. Early-evening water-vapor imagery clearly depicts
this feature over NE/KS and a 60-70kt 500mb speed max will translate
across KS into western MO by 06z. This feature will encourage the
LLJ to strengthen across MO into western IL, which will aid a
corridor of warm advection across the lower MO Valley region through
sunrise.

One pocket of elevated convection has developed within this zone and
scattered convection is spreading across eastern MO into western IL
at 0030z. Latest MRMS data suggests small hail is likely occurring
within the more robust updrafts. 00z sounding from SGF exhibits a
strongly sheared, warm advection profile, but only meager MUCAPE is
noted for parcels lifted near 850mb. Forecast soundings across the
MRGL Risk area show increasing instability later tonight, especially
after midnight. As large-scale forcing increases, scattered elevated thunderstorms should develop, some of which may generate hail.

..Darrow.. 11/18/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 180540
SWODY1
SPC AC 180539

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY REGION...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms are possible across portions of the
Lower Ohio Valley region.

...Lower OH Valley...

Central Plains upper trough is shifting east toward the mid MS
Valley, in line with latest model guidance. As a 60+kt 500mb speed
max translates across MO into southern IL/IN, this feature will
advance into the lower OH Valley by 19/00z, suppressing the height
field as far south as the OH River. Veered, but strong LLJ will
focus across southern MO-southern IL/IN before being nudged
downstream into eastern KY/southern OH by early evening. Net result
will be for a NW-SE oriented corridor of warm advection to shift
east during the day ahead of a weak surface low near the base of the
short-wave trough.

Earlier thoughts regarding the potential for severe continue as
instability will gradually increase along this corridor as midlevel temperatures cool and lapse rates steepen a bit. In the absence of
strong boundary-layer heating, the majority of convection that
develops across this region will be elevated and aided in large part
by the LLJ. Forecast soundings suggest lifted parcel level will
gradually lower by late afternoon such that near-surface based
parcels could yield modest instability (800-1000 J/kg). Primary
concern today will be hail with elevated supercells, but some
tornado risk is possible with late-day storms, where parcel lift
reflects lower 60s dew points that are expected to return toward the
confluence of the MS/OH Rivers during the afternoon.

...Lower Colorado River Valley/southwest AZ...

Weak midlevel height falls will spread across the lower CO River
Valley today as the upper low off the southern CA Coast eventually
settles toward the international border/northern Baja Peninsula. As
this features digs southeast, a weak LLJ should extend across
southwestern AZ into the early part of the afternoon. Latest
thinking is scattered convection should evolve ahead of the cold
front as it surges across the lower CO River Valley. Forecast
soundings exhibit ample shear for organized rotating updrafts, but
buoyancy is expected to be weak. Given the modest lapse rates, there
is concern updrafts may struggle a bit and hail is expected to
remain below severe levels. Some consideration was given to adding a
2 percent probability for the risk of a brief tornado but will hold
off at this time given the marginality of the situation.

..Darrow/Moore.. 11/18/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 181238
SWODY1
SPC AC 181236

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the
lower Ohio Valley region today.

...Mid Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valley...
Elevated thunderstorms ongoing this morning across the mid MS/lower
OH Valley are being aided by a southwesterly low-level jet and
related warm/moist advection. This activity may pose an isolated
hail threat as it tracks eastward this morning across the lower OH
Valley before eventually encountering a less unstable airmass. A
mid-level shortwave trough will advance eastward across the
Midwest/mid MS Valley into the OH Valley through this evening. A
weak surface low attendant to this shortwave trough will likewise
develop east-southeastward across MO into the lower OH Valley while
gradually weakening. Low-level moisture will return northward across
this region ahead of a east-southeastward advancing cold front.

Current expectations are for some re-intensification of convection
to occur this afternoon across the southern IL/western KY vicinity
as strong ascent associated with the shortwave trough overspreads
this region. There is still some uncertainty with how far north the
surface warm sector will be able to advance, and daytime heating may
be muted by persistent cloudiness. But, the best combination of weak
to locally moderate instability and favorable deep-layer shear
should overlap across the mid MS/lower OH Valley this afternoon and
evening as a 50-60+ kt westerly mid-level jet moves across these
areas. Any sustained supercell may be capable of producing severe
hail along with locally damaging winds, with elevated convection
possible north of the warm front into central IL/southern IN. Some
threat for a tornado or two may also exist if sufficient
boundary-layer instability can advance far enough northward in
tandem with the warm front and enhanced low-level shear to support surface-based thunderstorms. No changes have been made to the
Marginal Risk with this update. Confidence in a more concentrated
corridor of severe risk was not high enough to include greater
severe probabilities at this time, but trends will be monitored.

...Lower Colorado River Valley/Arizona...
A closed mid/upper-level low along the coast of central/southern CA
will make only slow progress southward today. Large-scale ascent
associated with a south-southwesterly mid-level jet should encourage
convective development today across parts of the lower CO River
Valley and AZ. While deep-layer shear appears adequate for organized
updrafts, weak instability will likely limit the overall severe
threat across this region.

..Gleason/Broyles.. 11/18/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 181631
SWODY1
SPC AC 181630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Valid 181630Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the middle
Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening.

...Middle Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley...
Clusters and northeast/southwest-oriented bands of elevated
thunderstorms persist at late morning either side of the Ohio River,
spanning southeast Indiana into northern/western Kentucky including
near the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers. This
convection will result in some additional net south/southwestward
forecast focus of the warm sector later today, even while fairly
aggressive warm-sector moistening is occurring across the Ozarks as
surface dewpoints climb through the lower/some middle 60s F.

A shortwave trough/moderately strong jetlet over Iowa and northern
Missouri this morning will continue to gradually minor/open while
moving east-southeastward toward the middle Ohio Valley by tonight.
Given the trend of this system, the related surface low will
gradually weaken while air mass modification/convective recovery
occurs with a northeastward-expanding warm sector toward the lower
Ohio Valley.

Current expectations are for some re-intensification of convection
to occur this afternoon across far southeast Missouri, southern
Illinois and western Kentucky, although some of these developmental/environmental details depend on the disposition of still-recurring convection near/south of the Ohio River. There is
still some sub-regional uncertainty with how far north the surface
warm sector will be able to advance, and daytime heating may be
muted by persistent cloudiness. But, the best combination of weak to
locally moderate instability and favorable deep-layer shear will
generally overlap across the aforementioned region this afternoon
and evening as a 50-60+ kt westerly mid-level jet moves overhead.

Any sustained supercell may be capable of producing severe hail
along with locally damaging winds, with elevated convection possible
north of the warm front into south-central Illinois/southern
Indiana. Some threat for a tornado or two may also exist if
sufficient boundary-layer instability can advance far enough
northward in tandem with the warm front and enhanced low-level shear
to support surface-based thunderstorms.

A narrow zone centered on far southeast Missouri, far southern
Illinois, western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee will continue to
be closely monitored and reevaluated for an upgrade (20z D1 update)
should confidence in surface-based storms increase near the surface
low/warm front late this afternoon and early evening.

...Lower Colorado River Valley/Arizona...
A closed mid/upper-level low along the coast of central/southern
California will make only slow progress southward today. Large-scale
ascent associated with a south-southwesterly mid-level jet should
encourage additional convective development today across parts of
the lower Colorado River Valley and Arizona. While deep-layer shear
appears adequate for organized updrafts, weak instability will
likely limit the overall severe threat across this region, although
small hail/gusty winds a few stronger storms could occur this
afternoon.

..Guyer/Thornton.. 11/18/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 182002
SWODY1
SPC AC 182000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Valid 182000Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms are possible across parts of the
middle Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley this afternoon and
evening.

...20Z Update...
The primary change with this update was the addition of a Slight
Risk (2/5) over parts of the Lower OH Valley and Mid MS Valley --
driven by 15-percent hail probabilities. The latest visible
satellite imagery shows an increasingly agitated boundary-layer
cumulus field evolving across southeast MO -- in the vicinity of a
frontal wave/weak surface low. Continued heating amid increasing
boundary-layer moisture ahead of this feature should erode
inhibition through the remainder of the afternoon and support
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms along a pre-frontal
surface trough. Any storms that form will be moving into an
environment characterized by around 50 kt of effective shear and
weak-moderate surface-based buoyancy. This will conditionally favor discrete/semi-discrete supercells capable of producing large hail
and locally strong gusts. While less certain, a couple of tornadoes
cannot be ruled out if established supercells evolve, given
sufficient low-level hodograph curvature. Elsewhere, the Marginal
Risk was expanded slightly northward to account for an ongoing
elevated hail risk.

..Weinman.. 11/18/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025/

...Middle Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley...
Clusters and northeast/southwest-oriented bands of elevated
thunderstorms persist at late morning either side of the Ohio River,
spanning southeast Indiana into northern/western Kentucky including
near the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers. This
convection will result in some additional net south/southwestward
forecast focus of the warm sector later today, even while fairly
aggressive warm-sector moistening is occurring across the Ozarks as
surface dewpoints climb through the lower/some middle 60s F.

A shortwave trough/moderately strong jetlet over Iowa and northern
Missouri this morning will continue to gradually minor/open while
moving east-southeastward toward the middle Ohio Valley by tonight.
Given the trend of this system, the related surface low will
gradually weaken while air mass modification/convective recovery
occurs with a northeastward-expanding warm sector toward the lower
Ohio Valley.

Current expectations are for some re-intensification of convection
to occur this afternoon across far southeast Missouri, southern
Illinois and western Kentucky, although some of these developmental/environmental details depend on the disposition of still-recurring convection near/south of the Ohio River. There is
still some sub-regional uncertainty with how far north the surface
warm sector will be able to advance, and daytime heating may be
muted by persistent cloudiness. But, the best combination of weak to
locally moderate instability and favorable deep-layer shear will
generally overlap across the aforementioned region this afternoon
and evening as a 50-60+ kt westerly mid-level jet moves overhead.

Any sustained supercell may be capable of producing severe hail
along with locally damaging winds, with elevated convection possible
north of the warm front into south-central Illinois/southern
Indiana. Some threat for a tornado or two may also exist if
sufficient boundary-layer instability can advance far enough
northward in tandem with the warm front and enhanced low-level shear
to support surface-based thunderstorms.

A narrow zone centered on far southeast Missouri, far southern
Illinois, western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee will continue to
be closely monitored and reevaluated for an upgrade (20z D1 update)
should confidence in surface-based storms increase near the surface
low/warm front late this afternoon and early evening.

...Lower Colorado River Valley/Arizona...
A closed mid/upper-level low along the coast of central/southern
California will make only slow progress southward today. Large-scale
ascent associated with a south-southwesterly mid-level jet should
encourage additional convective development today across parts of
the lower Colorado River Valley and Arizona. While deep-layer shear
appears adequate for organized updrafts, weak instability will
likely limit the overall severe threat across this region, although
small hail/gusty winds a few stronger storms could occur this
afternoon.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 190059
SWODY1
SPC AC 190057

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Valid 190100Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
NORTHWEST TN...SOUTHWEST KY...FAR SOUTHEAST MO...FAR SOUTHERN IL...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to locally severe storms remain possible this
evening across parts of the middle Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio
Valley.

...Mid MS to lower OH Valleys...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving quickly eastward toward
the Lower Great Lakes region this evening. A rather strong low-level
jet associated with this system will maintain elevated convection
for much of the evening across parts of eastern KY/TN. MUCAPE of
500-1000 J/kg and moderate effective shear will continue to support
a few strong elevated storms with a threat of isolated hail.

Farther southwest, moderate surface-based buoyancy remains in place
from western KY/TN into AR and far southeast MO/southern IL, along
and ahead of a cold front. While ascent associated with the
departing shortwave trough will become increasingly displaced to the
north and east, strong deep-layer shear will support supercell
potential with ongoing convection through the evening, as storms
move east-southeastward. Any sustained supercells could pose at
least an isolated threat of hail, locally damaging wind, and
possibly a tornado. Late this evening, increasing CINH should result
in a general weakening trend, though a strong storm or two cannot be
ruled out into the early overnight hours.

...Southwest...
Scattered storms will continue this evening across parts of AZ into
southeast CA/NV, in association with a mid/upper-level low. Buoyancy
will remain modest at best, but sufficient deep-layer shear could
support briefly strong storms through the evening.

..Dean.. 11/19/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 190557
SWODY1
SPC AC 190555

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern Plains into
western parts of the Ozarks, mainly late this afternoon into
tonight.

...Synopsis...
A deep upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across the
Southwest later today into tonight. Downstream of this system, weak
lee troughing will become established across the southern/central
High Plains. A surface boundary initially draped from north TX into
the ArkLaTex will move northward as a warm front, with rich
boundary-layer moisture spreading into parts of southern/central
OK/AR during the afternoon and evening.

...Southern Plains into western parts of the Ozarks...
A broad region of at least isolated severe potential remains evident
across the southern Plains. Within this region, one or more areas of
locally greater hail potential may evolve, but confidence in the
details is low at this time.

Relatively steep midlevel lapse rates atop dewpoints in the 60s to
near 70 F will result in moderate destabilization along/south of the
warm front by late afternoon. Large-scale ascent appears rather
nebulous into early evening, but isolated storm development cannot
be ruled out by late afternoon, especially in the vicinity of the
warm front. Storm coverage will increase through the evening into
late tonight from southwest into northwest TX and southern OK, as
ascent related to the approaching trough begins to overspread the
region.

Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for at least occasional storm
organization, with isolated supercells possible. Hail is expected to
be the most common hazard, though isolated strong/damaging gusts may
also occur. Regarding tornado potential, a secondary low-level
moisture surge (with dewpoints approaching 70 F) could result in a
brief tornado threat with any evening supercells across southwest
TX. Elsewhere, a nonzero tornado threat could also evolve with any
persistent supercells near the warm front, but this scenario remains
uncertain due to generally modest low-level flow/shear.

A separate area of primarily elevated storm development will be
possible late tonight from southeast KS/northeast OK into
central/southern MO. MUCAPE increasing to near 1000 J/kg and
sufficient effective shear could support an isolated hail threat
with the strongest storms in this regime.

...Southeast AZ into southwest NM...
Widespread convection is expected later today from southeast AZ into southwest/south-central NM, in response to the eastward-moving upper trough/low. Buoyancy will likely remain weak due to limited heating,
which may tend to suppress the organized severe threat, but strong
deep-layer shear could support occasional storm organization.
Confidence is too low to include probabilities at this time, but
stronger heating/destabilization than currently expected could
result in some severe potential.

..Dean/Moore.. 11/19/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 191241
SWODY1
SPC AC 191240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible across the southern
Plains into parts of the Ozarks, mainly late this afternoon into
tonight. Large hail should be the main threat, but occasional gusty
winds and perhaps a tornado or two may also occur.

...Southern Plains into the Ozarks...
A mid/upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across the lower
CO River Valley and Southwest today into tonight. Enhanced
southwesterly mid-level flow will persist across much of the
southern Plains into the Ozarks and vicinity through the period. A
moist low-level airmass in place across south/central TX this
morning will advance slowly northward across north TX and OK/AR in
tandem with a surface warm front. Weak lee cyclogenesis should occur
this evening and overnight across west TX as large-scale ascent
preceding the slow-moving upper trough eventually overspreads the
southern Plains. Nebulous forcing for much of the day casts
significant uncertainty on convective development across the warm
sector until later this evening.

Still, it appears likely that thunderstorms will gradually increase
in coverage this evening into early Thursday morning across the
southern Plains with the approach of the upper trough. Modest
low-level warm advection in the vicinity of the warm front and a
developing dryline across west TX may also aid in convective
development this evening. Most guidance continues to show moderate
instability in place along/near these boundaries, with modestly
steepened mid-level lapse rates present. This favorable
thermodynamic environment, coupled with moderate to strong
deep-layer shear given the enhanced southwesterly flow aloft, should
promote organized updrafts.

Current expectations are for a mix of supercells and multicells to
develop and pose an isolated threat for mainly large hail. Where
convection can remain surface-based this evening, some threat for
occasional gusty winds and perhaps a tornado or two should also
exist. With time, updraft interactions/mergers should result in a
messy convective mode, especially with elevated thunderstorms to the
north of the warm front. Still, at least some risk for severe hail
may persist for much of the overnight/early Thursday morning period
with this activity as it spreads east-northeastward across the
southern Plains and parts of the Ozarks.

...Southeast Arizona/Southwest New Mexico...
Cool mid-level temperatures will be in place over the Southwest as
the upper trough progresses slowly eastward. Weak instability may
develop across parts of southeast AZ/southwest NM and vicinity with
filtered daytime heating. While small hail could occur with the
stronger cores that develop this afternoon across this region,
modest low-level moisture and buoyancy should limit the overall
severe threat.

..Gleason/Broyles.. 11/19/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 191631
SWODY1
SPC AC 191630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Valid 191630Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across the southern Plains
into parts of the Ozarks, mainly late this afternoon into tonight.
Large hail should be the main threat, but occasional gusty winds and
perhaps a tornado may also occur.

...Southern Plains to Ozarks...
A low-latitude mid/upper-level will move slowly eastward across the
lower Colorado River Valley/Southwest and northwest Mexico today
into tonight. Enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow will persist
across much of the southern Plains into the Ozarks and vicinity
through the period, although height falls will generally not reach
these locales until tonight. An increasingly moist low-level airmass
across south/central Texas this morning will advance slowly
northward in tandem with a surface warm front. Weak lee cyclogenesis
should occur this evening and overnight across west Texas as
large-scale ascent preceding the slow-moving upper trough eventually overspreads the southern Plains. Nebulous forcing for much of the
day casts significant uncertainty on convective development across
the warm sector until later this evening and overnight.

But it appears probable that thunderstorms will gradually increase
in coverage this evening into early Thursday morning across the
southern Plains with the approach of the upper trough. Modest
low-level warm advection in the vicinity of the warm front and a
developing dryline across west Texas may also aid in convective
development this evening. Most guidance continues to show moderate
instability in place along/near these boundaries, with modestly
steepened mid-level lapse rates present. This favorable
thermodynamic environment, coupled with moderate to strong
deep-layer shear given the enhanced southwesterly flow aloft, should
promote organized updrafts.

Current expectations are for a mix of supercells and multicells to
develop and pose an isolated threat for mainly large hail. Where
convection can remain surface-based this evening, some threat for
occasional gusty winds and perhaps a tornado or two should also
exist, although the coverage and likelihood is uncertain. With time,
updraft interactions/mergers should result in a messy convective
mode, especially with elevated thunderstorms to the north of the
warm front. Still, at least some risk for severe hail may persist
for much of the overnight/early Thursday morning period with this
activity as it spreads east-northeastward across the southern Plains
and parts of the Ozarks. Additional development should occur late
tonight/early Thursday across eastern New Mexico into northwest
Texas with hail possible.

...Southeast Arizona/Southwest New Mexico...
Cool mid-level temperatures will be in place over the Southwest as
the upper trough progresses slowly eastward. Cooling aloft and cloud
breaks will allow for modest diurnal destabilization coincident with
strong deep-layer wind profiles. A few strong to locally severe
storms could occur with gusty winds and some hail.

..Guyer/Wendt.. 11/19/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 192002
SWODY1
SPC AC 192001

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Valid 192000Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across the southern Plains
into parts of the Ozarks, mainly late this afternoon into tonight.
Large hail should be the main threat, but occasional gusty winds and
perhaps a tornado may also occur.

...20Z Update...
The forecast remains on track and only minor adjustments were made
with this update. In parts of north TX, the latest visible satellite
imagery is showing initial signs of deepening boundary-layer cumulus
in the vicinity of an east/west-oriented quasi-stationary surface
boundary. Some high-resolution guidance depicts isolated
thunderstorm development in the general area during the late
afternoon/early evening time frame. Around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and
an elongated hodograph (around 40 kt of effective shear) would
conditionally support a supercell or two if storms can initiate.
However, weak/minimal forcing for ascent (both synoptic and
mesoscale) limits confidence in the initiation and sustenance of
storms during the afternoon hours. Given the conditionality, held
off on an upgrade to Slight Risk at this time, though a locally
favorable corridor for large hail is possible.

..Weinman.. 11/19/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025/

...Southern Plains to Ozarks...
A low-latitude mid/upper-level will move slowly eastward across the
lower Colorado River Valley/Southwest and northwest Mexico today
into tonight. Enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow will persist
across much of the southern Plains into the Ozarks and vicinity
through the period, although height falls will generally not reach
these locales until tonight. An increasingly moist low-level airmass
across south/central Texas this morning will advance slowly
northward in tandem with a surface warm front. Weak lee cyclogenesis
should occur this evening and overnight across west Texas as
large-scale ascent preceding the slow-moving upper trough eventually overspreads the southern Plains. Nebulous forcing for much of the
day casts significant uncertainty on convective development across
the warm sector until later this evening and overnight.

But it appears probable that thunderstorms will gradually increase
in coverage this evening into early Thursday morning across the
southern Plains with the approach of the upper trough. Modest
low-level warm advection in the vicinity of the warm front and a
developing dryline across west Texas may also aid in convective
development this evening. Most guidance continues to show moderate
instability in place along/near these boundaries, with modestly
steepened mid-level lapse rates present. This favorable
thermodynamic environment, coupled with moderate to strong
deep-layer shear given the enhanced southwesterly flow aloft, should
promote organized updrafts.

Current expectations are for a mix of supercells and multicells to
develop and pose an isolated threat for mainly large hail. Where
convection can remain surface-based this evening, some threat for
occasional gusty winds and perhaps a tornado or two should also
exist, although the coverage and likelihood is uncertain. With time,
updraft interactions/mergers should result in a messy convective
mode, especially with elevated thunderstorms to the north of the
warm front. Still, at least some risk for severe hail may persist
for much of the overnight/early Thursday morning period with this
activity as it spreads east-northeastward across the southern Plains
and parts of the Ozarks. Additional development should occur late
tonight/early Thursday across eastern New Mexico into northwest
Texas with hail possible.

...Southeast Arizona/Southwest New Mexico...
Cool mid-level temperatures will be in place over the Southwest as
the upper trough progresses slowly eastward. Cooling aloft and cloud
breaks will allow for modest diurnal destabilization coincident with
strong deep-layer wind profiles. A few strong to locally severe
storms could occur with gusty winds and some hail.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 200059
SWODY1
SPC AC 200057

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Valid 200100Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARKS...AND ALSO ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ AND
SOUTHERN NM...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible across the southern
Plains into parts of the Ozarks through tonight. Large hail should
be the main threat, but occasional gusty winds and perhaps a tornado
may also occur.

...Southern Plains into parts of the Ozarks...
Widely scattered storms have developed this evening across parts of west-central/northwest TX, generally near and to the south/east of a
surface boundary draped from central OK into southwest TX. Gradually
increasing ascent associated with an approaching mid/upper-level
trough will result in additional storm development through the
evening across parts of the southern Plains, where a seasonably
moist airmass is in place. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg, moderate
deep-layer shear, and elongated mid/upper-level hodographs (as noted
on regional 00Z soundings) will support isolated supercells with a
threat of large hail and locally gusty winds. A brief tornado will
also be possible, especially across southwest TX later this evening,
where backed surface winds and a modest nocturnal low-level jet will
lead to some enhancement of effective SRH.

Overnight, a somewhat separate zone of primarily elevated storm
development is possible from northern OK/southeast KS into parts of
the Ozarks, within a low-level warm-advection regime. MUCAPE of
near/above 1000 J/kg and sufficient effective shear could support an
isolated hail threat with this activity.

...Southwest...
Multiple storm clusters may continue through much of the evening
into late tonight across parts of AZ/NM, in association with the
upper trough moving across the Southwest. MUCAPE will generally
remain weak (near or below 500 J/kg), but favorable shear and
cooling temperatures aloft could still support small to near-severe
hail and locally gusty winds with the strongest storms.

..Dean.. 11/20/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 200600
SWODY1
SPC AC 200558

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible later today into this
evening across the southern Plains. Isolated hail, localized strong
to severe gusts, and a tornado or two are all possible.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially extending from the
Southwest into northern Mexico will eject northeastward across parts
of the southern Plains later today. In response to this shortwave, a
surface low will gradually deepen across the south-central Great
Plains and move eastward through the period. A surface boundary
draped across parts of OK/AR in the morning will lift slowly
northward in the advance of the surface low. Upstream, another
shortwave trough will drop southward along the Pacific coast and
evolve into a closed midlevel low across southern CA by the end of
the period.

...Southern Plains...
Scattered storms will be ongoing across parts of the southern Plains
later this morning, aided by a modest low-level jet and ascent
attendant to the approaching shortwave trough. Initially moderate
MUCAPE and effective shear of 40+ kt could support a few strong to
locally severe storms during the morning from parts of eastern NM
into west/central TX and OK, with a threat of isolated hail and
locally gusty winds.

Convection will persist through the day, resulting in generally
modest heating and weakening midlevel lapse rates with time. As a
result, while deep-layer shear will remain relatively strong across
the warm sector, potential for organized convection downstream or in
the wake of morning convection remains somewhat uncertain. Depending
on the extent of heating and destabilization, at least some
potential for isolated supercells and/or organized clusters could
evolve during the afternoon and evening, with a threat of marginally
severe hail and locally damaging wind. Some enlargement of low-level
hodographs with time could also support a brief tornado threat from
parts of central/eastern TX into eastern OK and western AR, if any surface-based supercells can be sustained.

Farther west, some CAM guidance depicts development of a modestly
organized convective line across NM into west TX during the
afternoon/evening, in closer proximity to the ejecting shortwave
trough. This could pose a threat of strong gusts, but it remains
quite uncertain as to whether instability will be sufficient to
support a severe threat with this scenario.

..Dean/Moore.. 11/20/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 201242
SWODY1
SPC AC 201240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today into this
evening across the southern Plains into Arkansas. Large hail,
damaging winds, and a tornado or two all appear possible.

...Southern Plains into Arkansas...
A mid/upper-level trough extending from the Southwest into northern
Mexico this morning will eject northeastward across parts of the
southern Plains today. In response, a surface low will gradually
deepen across the south-central High Plains and develop eastward
through the period. A front extending across parts of OK/AR this
morning will lift slowly northward as a warm front ahead of the
surface low. Thunderstorms ongoing across parts of the southern
Plains/ArkLaTex this morning are being aided by a modest low-level
jet and ascent attendant to the approaching upper trough. Weak to
locally moderate instability and effective shear of 40-50 kt may
support a few strong to severe thunderstorms this morning from parts
of eastern NM into west/central TX and OK, with a threat for mainly
isolated hail and locally gusty winds.

Convection and widespread cloud cover will likely persist through
the day, resulting in generally modest diurnal heating and weakening
mid-level lapse rates with time. While enhanced deep-layer shear
will remain across the warm sector owing to persistent strong
southwesterly mid-level flow, the potential for organized
thunderstorms downstream or in the wake of ongoing morning
convection remains uncertain. Still, depending on the extent of
heating and related destabilization, most guidance continues to show
some potential for isolated supercells and/or organized multicell
clusters this afternoon/evening across portions of TX, with a threat
of isolated severe hail and damaging winds. Modest enlargement of
low-level hodographs with time could also support a tornado threat
from parts of central/east TX into eastern OK/western AR along and
south of the warm front, assuming surface-based supercells can be
sustained. An isolated severe risk may persist into east TX and the
ArkLaTex tonight. However, confidence in a corridor of greater
severe risk remains too low to include higher severe probabilities
at this time.

Farther west, some high-resolution guidance continues to show the
development of a modestly organized convective line across far
eastern NM into west TX during the afternoon/evening, in closer
proximity to the ejecting upper trough. This convection could pose a
threat of strong gusts and perhaps some hail, but it remains
uncertain as to whether sufficient instability will develop to
support a severe threat. Have therefore maintained the Marginal Risk
across this region with only minor changes.

..Gleason/Broyles.. 11/20/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 201632
SWODY1
SPC AC 201631

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1031 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Valid 201630Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today into this
evening across the southern Plains into Arkansas. Large hail,
damaging winds, and a tornado or two all appear possible.

...Southern Plains to Arkansas...
Showers/thunderstorms remain common at late morning with widespread
cloud cover with the warm sector across most of Texas and Oklahoma.
This precedes a mid/upper-level trough currently located over
Arizona/New Mexico and far northern Mexico, which will continue to
eject northeastward toward the southern High Plains. A surface low
will gradually deepen across the south-central High Plains and
develop eastward through the period.

It still seems likely that convection and widespread cloud cover
will persist through the day, resulting in generally modest diurnal
heating and weakening mid-level lapse rates with time. While
enhanced deep-layer shear will remain across the warm sector owing
to persistent strong southwesterly mid-level flow, the potential for
organized thunderstorms downstream or in the wake of ongoing morning
convection remains uncertain, particularly in the context of
somewhat stronger low-level winds more likely to interface where
convective overturning has occurred.

Regardless, some potential for isolated supercells and/or organized
multicell clusters will exist this afternoon/evening particularly
across portions of central and possibly into parts of
North/northeast Texas. This includes isolated severe hail and
damaging winds, and a modest enlargement of low-level hodographs
could also support a tornado risk.

Farther west, some high-resolution guidance continues to show the
development of additional strong/locally severe storms across
east/southeast New Mexico into west Texas/southwest Oklahoma, in
closer proximity to the ejecting upper trough. This convection could
pose a threat of strong gusts and perhaps some hail, but it remains
uncertain as to whether sufficient instability will develop to
support anything beyond a very isolated/marginal-type severe risk.

..Guyer/Mosier.. 11/20/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 202000
SWODY1
SPC AC 201959

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Valid 202000Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today into this
evening across the southern Plains into Arkansas. Large hail,
damaging winds, and a tornado or two all appear possible.

...20Z Update...
No changes were made with this update. An upgrade to Slight Risk was
considered for parts of south-central into north-central TX ahead of
the northeast/southwest-oriented band of storms. Here, diurnal
heating has allowed temperatures to climb into the upper 70s to
lower 80s amid middle/upper 60s dewpoints -- resulting in a
moderately unstable warm sector. While this instability and around
50 kt of effective shear will conditionally favor embedded supercell structures, current thinking is that deep-layer southwesterly
flow/shear parallel to the larger-scale cold pool will result in
undercutting and training of storms. Therefore, held off on an
upgrade at this time. Nevertheless, damaging gusts, sporadic large
hail, and perhaps a tornado or two will all be possible with any
longer-lived storms -- especially any that can form immediately
ahead of the convective band and related cold pool.

..Weinman.. 11/20/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025/

...Southern Plains to Arkansas...
Showers/thunderstorms remain common at late morning with widespread
cloud cover with the warm sector across most of Texas and Oklahoma.
This precedes a mid/upper-level trough currently located over
Arizona/New Mexico and far northern Mexico, which will continue to
eject northeastward toward the southern High Plains. A surface low
will gradually deepen across the south-central High Plains and
develop eastward through the period.

It still seems likely that convection and widespread cloud cover
will persist through the day, resulting in generally modest diurnal
heating and weakening mid-level lapse rates with time. While
enhanced deep-layer shear will remain across the warm sector owing
to persistent strong southwesterly mid-level flow, the potential for
organized thunderstorms downstream or in the wake of ongoing morning
convection remains uncertain, particularly in the context of
somewhat stronger low-level winds more likely to interface where
convective overturning has occurred.

Regardless, some potential for isolated supercells and/or organized
multicell clusters will exist this afternoon/evening particularly
across portions of central and possibly into parts of
North/northeast Texas. This includes isolated severe hail and
damaging winds, and a modest enlargement of low-level hodographs
could also support a tornado risk.

Farther west, some high-resolution guidance continues to show the
development of additional strong/locally severe storms across
east/southeast New Mexico into west Texas/southwest Oklahoma, in
closer proximity to the ejecting upper trough. This convection could
pose a threat of strong gusts and perhaps some hail, but it remains
uncertain as to whether sufficient instability will develop to
support anything beyond a very isolated/marginal-type severe risk.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 210059
SWODY1
SPC AC 210057

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Valid 210100Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX...SOUTHEAST OK...WESTERN/CENTRAL AR...FAR
NORTHWEST LA...

...SUMMARY...
Storms capable of locally damaging wind and possibly a tornado or
two remain possible this evening from parts of the southern Plains
into Arkansas.

...Southern Plains into Arkansas...
Multiple areas of convection are ongoing across parts of the
southern Plains this evening, in advance of a mid/upper-level trough
that will continue to eject northeastward tonight. The greatest
remaining severe threat appears to reside from parts of
south-central into northeast TX, where MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg
and strong deep-layer shear remain in place immediately downstream
of ongoing storms. At least transient supercell structures will be
possible through the evening, with a threat of locally damaging wind
and possibly marginal hail. Modest enhancement of low-level
hodographs (with 0-1 km SRH of 100-150 m2/s2) could support a brief
tornado threat. Some uptick in the damaging-wind threat could occur
with any upscale growth, before convection weakens as it encounters
diminishing buoyancy with eastward extent. See MCD 2216 for more
information regarding the short-term threat in this area.

Some storm redevelopment will be possible late tonight across
central TX, as an initially quasi-stationary boundary begins to move
eastward as a cold front. Buoyancy and deep-layer will remain
sufficient for some storm organization, and an isolated severe
threat could persist across this region overnight.

..Dean.. 11/21/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 210602
SWODY1
SPC AC 210600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
MS/AL/TN...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible later today into
tonight across parts of Mississippi and Tennessee into western and
northern Alabama.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to deamplify and move
quickly eastward from the central Plains toward the Ohio Valley
later today into tonight. In conjunction with this shortwave, a weak
surface low will move eastward from southern MO to near the TN/KY
border, along a diffuse surface boundary. Farther west, a
mid/upper-level cyclone will move southeastward off the coast of
southern CA.

...Parts of the Southeast/TN Valley...
A Marginal Risk has been added across parts of MS/AL/TN. While
modest instability will tend to limit the magnitude of the severe
threat, relatively favorable wind profiles atop seasonably rich
low-level moisture could result in a threat for a brief tornado
and/or locally damaging wind.

Dewpoints in the 60s to near 70 F will spread northward across parts
of MS/AL/TN later today, in response to the shortwave trough and
weak surface low approaching the Ohio Valley. Morning convection and
remnant cloudiness will tend to limit diurnal heating, and midlevel
lapse rates will remain weak. However, weak capping will allow for
scattered diurnal storm development from southern/central MS into
western AL. While stronger mid/upper-level flow and large-scale
ascent will be displaced to the north, moderate deep-layer shear and
modest low-level veering of the wind profile could support at least
transient storm organization, with a threat of locally damaging wind
and perhaps a brief tornado.

Farther north into northern MS/AL and parts of TN/far southern KY,
guidance depicts renewed storm development during the evening into
late tonight, aided by the glancing influence of the departing
shortwave trough. Deep-layer flow will remain rather strong across
this region, so an isolated severe threat could evolve if sufficient
recovery and destabilization can occur. If organized convection can
be sustained within this regime, then a threat for a brief tornado
and/or locally damaging wind could develop later tonight.

...Middle/upper TX Gulf Coast...
Isolated to scattered storms will likely be ongoing later this
morning across the TX coastal plain, with some redevelopment
possible later this afternoon or evening along a cold front. While
deep-layer shear will remain somewhat favorable for storm
organization, weakening large-scale ascent and warming temperatures
aloft are currently expected to limit severe potential. If any
organized convection can persist from overnight, and/or if
substantial destabilization can occur along/ahead of the front
during the afternoon, then a few strong storms will be possible.

...Southern California...
Isolated storms will be possible across parts of the Southwest, in
association with the mid/upper-level cyclone. The strongest
instability will remain near and offshore of the southern CA coast,
and low-level flow is expected to generally be weak, but a strong
storm or two cannot be ruled out, especially early in the day.

..Dean.. 11/21/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 211259
SWODY1
SPC AC 211257

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA INTO TENNESSEE AND SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible later today into
tonight across parts of Mississippi and Tennessee into western and
northern Alabama.

...MS/AL/TN/KY...
Early morning water vapor imagery shows broad west-southwesterly
flow aloft extending from the southern Plains into the southeast
states. A southern-stream shortwave trough is noted over LA/AR,
which will traverse across the mid-South and TN Valley today.
Multiple areas of precipitation will be present along/ahead of this
feature, with forecast soundings showing weak-but-sufficient CAPE
for a few thunderstorm clusters. Mid-level lapse rates are weak,
suggesting most updrafts will struggle to intensify. However,
forecast hodographs show strong low-level shear today from eastern
MS across parts of AL/Middle TN and southeast KY. This could be
enough for one or two rotating cells capable of a tornado or
damaging wind event. The overall threat appears marginal at this
time.

The primary surface cold front will move into this region after dark
tonight, with another round of showers and thunderstorms ahead of
the front. Low-level winds are expected to somewhat veer by this
time, reducing low-level shear. Nevertheless, a low risk of a
tornado or two and/or gusty winds will continue.

...Southern CA...
An upper low is centered off the coast of southern CA today, with
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms ongoing. This trend
will continue through the day, with some risk of a few robust
thunderstorms affecting coastal areas. Onshore instability and
low-level shear are expected to remain weak, suggesting organized
severe storms are unlikely.

..Hart/Broyles.. 11/21/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 211631
SWODY1
SPC AC 211629

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1029 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Valid 211630Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL/TN/KY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible today and tonight
across parts of Mississippi and Tennessee into western and northern
Alabama and possibly southern Kentucky.

...MS/AL/TN/KY...
A strengthening of deep-layer flow will occur regionally in tandem
with the eastward progression of a low-amplitude shortwave trough
from the Lower Missouri Valley toward the Lower Ohio River Valley
tonight, with height falls remaining limited south of the Tennessee
Valley.

The more organized/sustained scattered thunderstorms this afternoon
will probably remain focused within the warm conveyor from
south-central Mississippi into Alabama. On the south-southwest
periphery of these storms, there will be a gradual northeastward
expansion of the effective warm sector while destabilization will
still remain weaker with eastward extent. Mid-level lapse rates are
weak, suggesting most updrafts will struggle to intensify. However,
strong deep-layer shear and moderately strong low-level shear/SRH,
particularly within the aforementioned corridor, could support a
couple of rotating storms capable of a tornado or damaging wind.

The primary surface cold front will move into this region tonight,
with another round of showers and thunderstorms expected to uptick
this evening across the Mid-South including western Tennessee and
northern Mississippi. Low-level winds are expected to veer by this
time, reducing low-level shear/SRH. Nevertheless, a low risk of a
tornado and/or gusty winds will exist.

..Guyer/Kerr.. 11/21/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 211944
SWODY1
SPC AC 211942

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Valid 212000Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL/TN/KY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible today and tonight
across parts of Mississippi and Tennessee into western and northern
Alabama and possibly southern Kentucky.

...20Z Update...
The Marginal Risk was trimmed slightly in northern/central MS, where
a combination of relatively weaker large-scale forcing for ascent
and poor deep-layer lapse rates/modest buoyancy (see SHV 18Z
sounding) should limit the severe-risk compared to areas farther
north tonight. Elsewhere, widely scattered thunderstorms are
evolving along a southeastward-moving cold front in southeast TX.
PBL destabilization ahead of the front has yielded moderate
surface-based buoyancy (per CRP 18Z sounding). While several warm
layers aloft and modest deep-layer shear (around 30 kt of effective
shear) should limit updraft intensity, a strong storm or two capable
of producing gusty winds cannot be entirely ruled out into this
evening.

..Weinman.. 11/21/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025/

...MS/AL/TN/KY...
A strengthening of deep-layer flow will occur regionally in tandem
with the eastward progression of a low-amplitude shortwave trough
from the Lower Missouri Valley toward the Lower Ohio River Valley
tonight, with height falls remaining limited south of the Tennessee
Valley.

The more organized/sustained scattered thunderstorms this afternoon
will probably remain focused within the warm conveyor from
south-central Mississippi into Alabama. On the south-southwest
periphery of these storms, there will be a gradual northeastward
expansion of the effective warm sector while destabilization will
still remain weaker with eastward extent. Mid-level lapse rates are
weak, suggesting most updrafts will struggle to intensify. However,
strong deep-layer shear and moderately strong low-level shear/SRH,
particularly within the aforementioned corridor, could support a
couple of rotating storms capable of a tornado or damaging wind.

The primary surface cold front will move into this region tonight,
with another round of showers and thunderstorms expected to uptick
this evening across the Mid-South including western Tennessee and
northern Mississippi. Low-level winds are expected to veer by this
time, reducing low-level shear/SRH. Nevertheless, a low risk of a
tornado and/or gusty winds will exist.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 220044
SWODY1
SPC AC 220042

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Valid 220100Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms remain possible across parts of
northern Mississippi and Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky. Small to
marginal hail or gusty winds may occur.

...Discussion...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough will continue moving out of MO and
across the OH Valley tonight, with cooling aloft eventually
extending southward across the TN Valley. Midlevel winds of 50-70 kt
will be present within the speed max, from the OH River into TN,
resulting in elongated hodographs.

At the surface, low pressure will translate eastward along a
quasi-stationary boundary extending from southern MO/IL into central
KY, though this front will sink south late.

Minimal lift will exist along this boundary, but the ejecting
midlevel wave atop the warm sector with 60s F dewpoints may result
in isolated cells, some possibly reaching severe limits with
marginal hail over northern areas, and/or wind elsewhere. Winds
around 850 mb will be quite veered, with mostly straightline
hodographs, favoring cells.

00Z soundings confirm generally strong deep-layer shear but poor
lapse rates aloft and weak instability. However, areas of lift
overnight may still result in isolated strong storms within the
marginal area.

..Jewell.. 11/22/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 220459
SWODY1
SPC AC 220457

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1057 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible across much of the Southwest,
mainly from late in the day into the overnight. Limited activity may
occur over North Carolina and southern Virginia. Severe thunderstorm
potential appears low.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper low will move across northern Baja CA today, and will
gradually weaken as it moves into AZ by Sunday morning. Cooling
aloft with this system along with midlevel moistening will
eventually result in widespread precipitation over much of AZ and
NM, including a few thunderstorms. Given the elevated nature of the
instability overnight, severe storms are not anticipated.

To the east, a low-amplitude upper trough will move across VA and NC
during the day. Low pressure near the DelMarVa will quickly move out
to sea as a cold front pushes south out of VA and into NC. Here,
residual dewpoints near 60 F along with daytime heating will result
in minimal SBCAPE within a westerly flow regime, possibly supporting
isolated thunderstorms late afternoon or evening. Strong deep-layer
shear will support cellular storm mode, but instability and lapse
rates do not appear to favor severe hail.

..Jewell/Halbert.. 11/22/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 221236
SWODY1
SPC AC 221234

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0634 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible across much of the Southwest,
mainly from late in the day into the overnight. Limited activity may
occur over North Carolina and southern Virginia. Severe thunderstorm
potential appears low.

...TX to SE States...
A zonal flow pattern is present today over the eastern half of the
CONUS, with a surface cold front moving across the TN Valley into
the Carolinas. A few thunderstorms will be possible along/ahead of
the front from east TX into much of the southeast states today and
tonight, but the risk of severe activity is low.

...Southwest States...
A compact upper low will track eastward across Baja California this
afternoon, with an associated mid-level cold pocket affecting
northwest Mexico and the Four-Corners states. Model guidance agrees
that scattered thunderstorms will affect these areas by late
afternoon and through the evening. A few of the HREF members
indicate some risk of strong storms with small hail and gusty winds
over southeast AZ. However, forecast soundings do not appear
sufficient to warrant severe probabilities at time.

..Hart/Broyles.. 11/22/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 221632
SWODY1
SPC AC 221630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Valid 221630Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible across much of the Southwest,
mainly from late in the day into the overnight. Isolated
thunderstorms are also possible from the Texas Coast across the
Southeast States. Severe thunderstorm potential appears low.

...South TX/TX Coast across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic...
Recent surface analysis places a low just off the northern
Mid-Atlantic coast. A cold front extends west-southwestward from
this low across central VA and middle TN to another low just east of
MEM. A cold front extends southwestward from this secondary low
across northern MS, central LA, and the TX Coastal Plain. This cold
front is forecast to push eastward/southeastward throughout the day,
and isolated thunderstorms are anticipated within this broad warm
sector that stretches from the TX coast through much of the
Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Poor lapse rates and corresponding
limited buoyancy should keep updrafts weak and transient throughout
much of this region, limiting the severe potential. The only
exception is across south TX, where considerable low-level moisture
(i.e. dewpoints in the 70s) is in place, resulting in greater
buoyancy this afternoon. Even so, this region will be displaced well
south and west of the stronger mid-level flow, with weak shear
likely limiting updraft organization and persistence and tempering
the overall severe potential.

...Southwest...
Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low just off the
northern Baja California coast this morning. This low is forecast to
progress gradually eastward today, with strong mid-level flow
spreading from the base of this low eastward/northeastward across
the Southwest. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are anticipated
ahead of this upper low, spreading from AZ this afternoon and
evening into NM overnight. In general, limited buoyancy should keep
overall thunderstorm strength low, despite strengthen deep-layer
vertical shear. The only exception is across southeast AZ, where
very strong vertical shear could overlap modest buoyancy for a few
hours this evening. Meridional orientation to the shear will favor
line segments and storm interactions, which should limit updraft
organization and the overall severe potential. That being said, a
few stronger storms with small, sub-severe hail and gusty winds are
possible. The overall severe potential is currently forecast to
remain too isolated to include any 5% probabilities.

..Mosier/Wendt.. 11/22/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 221948
SWODY1
SPC AC 221946

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Valid 222000Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible across much of the Southwest,
mainly from late in the day into the overnight. Isolated
thunderstorms are also possible from the Texas Coast across the
Southeast States. Severe thunderstorm potential appears low.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast thinking remains the same, and no changes were
warranted with this update. See the previous discussion below.

..Weinman.. 11/22/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025/

...South TX/TX Coast across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic...
Recent surface analysis places a low just off the northern
Mid-Atlantic coast. A cold front extends west-southwestward from
this low across central VA and middle TN to another low just east of
MEM. A cold front extends southwestward from this secondary low
across northern MS, central LA, and the TX Coastal Plain. This cold
front is forecast to push eastward/southeastward throughout the day,
and isolated thunderstorms are anticipated within this broad warm
sector that stretches from the TX coast through much of the
Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Poor lapse rates and corresponding
limited buoyancy should keep updrafts weak and transient throughout
much of this region, limiting the severe potential. The only
exception is across south TX, where considerable low-level moisture
(i.e. dewpoints in the 70s) is in place, resulting in greater
buoyancy this afternoon. Even so, this region will be displaced well
south and west of the stronger mid-level flow, with weak shear
likely limiting updraft organization and persistence and tempering
the overall severe potential.

...Southwest...
Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low just off the
northern Baja California coast this morning. This low is forecast to
progress gradually eastward today, with strong mid-level flow
spreading from the base of this low eastward/northeastward across
the Southwest. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are anticipated
ahead of this upper low, spreading from AZ this afternoon and
evening into NM overnight. In general, limited buoyancy should keep
overall thunderstorm strength low, despite strengthen deep-layer
vertical shear. The only exception is across southeast AZ, where
very strong vertical shear could overlap modest buoyancy for a few
hours this evening. Meridional orientation to the shear will favor
line segments and storm interactions, which should limit updraft
organization and the overall severe potential. That being said, a
few stronger storms with small, sub-severe hail and gusty winds are
possible. The overall severe potential is currently forecast to
remain too isolated to include any 5% probabilities.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 230053
SWODY1
SPC AC 230052

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Valid 230100Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected mainly over parts of Arizona
and into New Mexico tonight. Severe weather is not forecast,
although small hail cannot be ruled out.

...Discussion...
Scattered thunderstorms persist this evening ahead of an upper low
moving across northern Baja CA, affecting much of southern into
eastern AZ. Area soundings and objective analysis indicate a few
hundred J/kg MUCAPE is present, though primarily elevated in nature.
All this is occurring within a deep southerly flow regime, with
moderate deep layer shear. Any embedded cellular activity may
produce small hail given cold profiles aloft.

As cooling aloft spreads further into NM overnight, additional rain
and elevated thunderstorms will develop over the area. Forecast
soundings indicate favorable deep-layer shear will persist, with
midlevel moistening above an initially dry boundary layer. Again,
minimal/small hail will be possible given cold air aloft and
favorable shear for cellular storm mode.

..Jewell.. 11/23/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 230536
SWODY1
SPC AC 230534

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF WESTERN
INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated hail is possible beginning this afternoon across parts of
west to north-central Texas.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper low will pivot from AZ into CO today, with a midlevel speed
max moving into the southern High Plains. Cooling aloft will persist
across the region throughout the period, leading to steepening lapse
rates aloft.

At the surface, high pressure will maintain relatively cool surface temperatures over the Plains and MS Valley, though 50s F dewpoints
will develop northward into western TX, and near 60 F dewpoints into
central TX by 12Z Monday.

As the upper trough emerges into the plains, large-scale ascent will
move out of NM and into TX and western OK. While the surface air
mass will be cool most areas, elevated instability should be
substantial due to a southerly low-level jet with strong theta-e
advection. Forecast soundings suggest perhaps 1000 J/kg MUCAPE will
be possible, along with favorable effective shear over 40 kt. As
such, elevated convection should strengthen from eastern NM into
western TX, with the greatest severe hail potential over TX where
instability will be strongest. Isolated large hail seems likely
after about 18Z.

Otherwise, there is a conditional threat of an isolated,
surface-based supercell over far western TX in the Pecos/Fort
Stockton area, where a narrow zone of SBCAPE may develop due to
stronger heating. However, it is uncertain if any storms will form
along the weak boundary.

..Jewell/Halbert.. 11/23/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 231254
SWODY1
SPC AC 231253

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF WEST TX....

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms capable of large hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening across parts of west Texas.

...West TX...
A large upper low currently over AZ will track northeastward into
NM, with a 70+ knot mid-level speed max approaching west TX by this
afternoon. Ahead of this feature, southerly low-level winds will
help transport 50s dewpoints into much of west TX ahead of a diffuse
dryline. Most CAM solutions suggest that scattered thunderstorms
will form along this dryline and track northeastward for a few
hours. Given the strength of deep-layer shear, supercell structures
will be likely with a risk of a large hail and perhaps a tornado.
Storms should weaken by late evening as they move into a
progressively less unstable air mass and diurnal cooling ensues.

..Hart/Broyles.. 11/23/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 231626
SWODY1
SPC AC 231624

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1024 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Valid 231630Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF WEST TX....

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms capable of large hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening across parts of west Texas.

...West TX...
Current satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low over AZ,
with a band of showers and embedded thunderstorms preceding it
across central/eastern NM. This low is forecast to continue
northeastward throughout the day as a belt of strong mid-level flow
pivots through its southern and eastern periphery across the
southern High Plains and into the southern/central Plains. Low-level
moisture will continue to advect northwestward ahead of this low and
associated jet streak and model consensus brings upper 50s dewpoints
into the Permian Basin by this evening. This should result in a
relatively confined region of surface-based buoyancy across the
Permian Basin, which will combined with large-scale ascent and
strong shear to support supercells. Primary threat will be large
hail, although the anticipated development of surface-based buoyancy
does indicate a low-probability threat for strong winds and/or a
tornado.

Low-level stability will increase quickly with eastward extent, as a
result of both nocturnal cooling and generally cooler surface
temperatures throughout the day. Even so, enough elevated buoyancy
is anticipated for continued strong to occasionally severe storms
throughout much of the evening and overnight, particularly in the
03Z-06Z time frame across southwest TX. Hail is the primary risk
with these storms.

..Mosier/Wendt.. 11/23/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 232001
SWODY1
SPC AC 232000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Valid 232000Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF WEST TX...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms capable of producing large hail and locally
severe gusts are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of
west Texas.

...20Z Update...
Both the Marginal and Slight Risk areas were expanded slightly
northwestward in the TX South Plains. Here, continued diurnal
heating amid middle 50s dewpoints is yielding sufficient
surface-based buoyancy for any left-mover supercells that may evolve
(posing a risk of severe hail). Additionally, a significant-hail
area was added over the western part of the Slight Risk. Given the
expectation for discrete storms in this area, a long/mostly straight
hodograph and around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE should support hail to around
2 inches in diameter with any longer-lived supercells. Finally, the
5-percent wind probabilities were expanded eastward. Despite
increasing boundary-layer static stability, gradual upscale growth
and a focused/eastward-translating low-level jet should allow for
embedded severe gusts within the line into the early morning hours.
For details on the near-term severe risk, see MCD #2218.

..Weinman.. 11/23/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025/

...West TX...
Current satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low over AZ,
with a band of showers and embedded thunderstorms preceding it
across central/eastern NM. This low is forecast to continue
northeastward throughout the day as a belt of strong mid-level flow
pivots through its southern and eastern periphery across the
southern High Plains and into the southern/central Plains. Low-level
moisture will continue to advect northwestward ahead of this low and
associated jet streak and model consensus brings upper 50s dewpoints
into the Permian Basin by this evening. This should result in a
relatively confined region of surface-based buoyancy across the
Permian Basin, which will combined with large-scale ascent and
strong shear to support supercells. Primary threat will be large
hail, although the anticipated development of surface-based buoyancy
does indicate a low-probability threat for strong winds and/or a
tornado.

Low-level stability will increase quickly with eastward extent, as a
result of both nocturnal cooling and generally cooler surface
temperatures throughout the day. Even so, enough elevated buoyancy
is anticipated for continued strong to occasionally severe storms
throughout much of the evening and overnight, particularly in the
03Z-06Z time frame across southwest TX. Hail is the primary risk
with these storms.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 240059
SWODY1
SPC AC 240057

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Valid 240100Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms capable of producing hail and locally strong
gusts remains possible tonight over parts of west to west-central
Texas.

...Discussion...
Gradual cooling aloft will occur tonight as the upper trough moves
into the central and southern Plains, with 50-60 kt midlevel
southwesterlies maintaining deep-layer shear. At the surface, an
instability axis currently exists over southwest TX, where
temperatures are in the 60s with low 60s F dewpoints. While the 00Z
DRT sounding was capped, the MAF soundings shows significantly
cooler 700 mb temperatures. A few storms are ongoing over the South
Plains and into the Pecos Valley, with new echoes developing south
of FST. Given southeasterly 925 mb winds and continued cooling
aloft, additional development and possibly strengthening is expected
overnight.

Long hodographs will favor cells producing hail, and a few strong
wind gusts may also occur if bowing structures can develop. Overall, instability will be mainly elevated, except over far southern areas.

..Jewell.. 11/24/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 240535
SWODY1
SPC AC 240534

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTENDING ACROSS LOUISIANA TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from mid-afternoon into
the overnight hours over much of eastern Texas, with more isolated
activity into Mississippi. A few brief tornadoes may occur from
eastern Texas into Louisiana, along with areas of damaging gusts and
sporadic large hail.

...Synopsis...
A positive-tilt upper trough will move from the central and southern
Plains today toward the MS Valley overnight, losing amplitude with
time. Upper ridging will occur over the East during this time as an
upper trough exits the Northeast.

At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the Mid Atlantic
during the day, with southerly winds from the western Gulf of
America into TX. A plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will extend
as far as North TX by 00Z as a cold front approaches the I-35
corridor. A warm front will extend roughly from the Red River into
southern AR at that time, with a continued northward advection of
moisture overnight across MS.

...Eastern TX toward the ArkLaMiss...
Widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing from
North TX into eastern OK and western AR through midday, with
southerly 40 kt winds at 850 mb aiding moisture transport and lift
north of the warm front. Given cool profiles aloft and ample
deep-layer effective shear, some of this activity could produce hail
at times.

To the south, a weak cold front will progress across TX, as boundary
layer dewpoints increase. A capping inversion will exist near 700 mb
initially, but by early afternoon, the deepening moist layer as well
as cooling aloft will reduce inhibition near the front, and, by late
afternoon, even ahead of the cold front within the moist axis.

Scattered storms are likely to form along the trailing outflow/cold
front, and perhaps just east of the cold front primarily after 21Z.
Sufficient cross-boundary winds aloft as well as veering winds with
height will support scattered supercells. Some of these cells may
produce a tornado prior to eventual merging of storms along the
front. The most intense cells may also produce large hail, as
mid/upper lapse rates will become steep.

At least an isolated severe threat may persist as far east as MS
overnight, as the warm front continues to move north, with veering
wind profiles with height and generally moist conditions supporting
a conditional tornado risk. However, the upper trough will continue
to weaken and lift north, reducing confidence in storm coverage.

..Jewell/Moore.. 11/24/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 241238
SWODY1
SPC AC 241236

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EAST
TEXAS...LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI....

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from mid-afternoon into
the overnight hours from east Texas into central/southern
Mississippi.

...TX/LA/MS...
A large upper trough is moving eastward across the southern Plains
this morning, with an associated 60-70 knot mid level jet expected
to track into AR by evening. At the surface, a warm front currently
extends from southeast TX to just off the LA coast. This boundary
will lift northward through the day, with a moist and moderately
unstable air mass spreading inland. A combination of diurnal
destabilization and the approaching upper trough will lead to
convective intensification by early afternoon over east TX. These
initial storms will pose a risk of large hail and perhaps some gusty
winds and a tornado or two.

As the activity spreads eastward after dark, rather strong low-level
shear profiles in vicinity of the warm front will maintain a risk of
severe storms through much of the night across central LA and
southern MS. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible.

..Hart/Broyles.. 11/24/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 241624
SWODY1
SPC AC 241623

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1023 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Valid 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT FROM EAST TEXAS INTO MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from mid-afternoon into
the overnight hours from east Texas into central/southern
Mississippi.

...East TX this afternoon to MS overnight...
A midlevel shortwave trough over KS/OK/TX this morning will progress
a bit north-of-east to the lower OH and TN Valleys by Tuesday
morning. Only weak surface cyclogenesis is expected in advance of
the de-amplifying midlevel trough, but there will be sufficient mass
response to support a modestly strong low-level jet (roughly 40 kt)
from northeast TX this afternoon into the Ark-La-Miss by early
Tuesday. This low-level jet will correspond to the north edge of
the richer low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints of 66-70 F),
and MLCAPE generally 1000-2000 J/kg near and south of the warm
front.

Convective mode is likely to remain rather messy through tonight,
though cellular elements are expected given modest forcing for
ascent along the deeper baroclinic zone from northeast TX eastward
near the LA/AR border. Warm sector supercell development is also
possible by early-mid afternoon from southeast into east TX (see MD
2222 for additional details), along a confluence zone (now from
VCT-CLL) and aided by cloud breaks where surface temperatures warm
into the 75-80 F range. The combination of moderate buoyancy and
sufficiently long/curved hodographs will support the threat for a
few supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes, occasional wind
damaging and isolated large hail. The threat will spread this
afternoon across east TX and then spread eastward overnight toward
MS.

..Thompson/Wendt.. 11/24/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 241952
SWODY1
SPC AC 241951

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN TEXAS INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible through the afternoon
into the overnight hours, from east Texas into central/southern
Mississippi.

...20Z Update...
Only minor changes to general thunder and severe probabilities have
been made to the Day 1 Convective Outlook to reflect the latest
observations and guidance consensus. Storms have increased in
coverage and intensity along the cold front, and along a primary
low-level moisture confluence zone within the free warm sector.
Storms seem to be struggling in intensity at the moment, possibly
due to a sub-optimal vertical wind shear profile in place (please
see MCD 2223 for more details on short-term convective trends).
However, convection should persist to some degree along and ahead of
the cold front through the afternoon into the overnight hours as
upper support from an approaching mid-level trough overspreads the
Sabine/MS River Valleys. With adequate low-level moisture advection
continuing ahead of the cold front, supercells and line segments
capable of damaging gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will remain
possible through tonight, from eastern TX into central MS.

..Squitieri.. 11/24/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025/

...East TX this afternoon to MS overnight...
A midlevel shortwave trough over KS/OK/TX this morning will progress
a bit north-of-east to the lower OH and TN Valleys by Tuesday
morning. Only weak surface cyclogenesis is expected in advance of
the de-amplifying midlevel trough, but there will be sufficient mass
response to support a modestly strong low-level jet (roughly 40 kt)
from northeast TX this afternoon into the Ark-La-Miss by early
Tuesday. This low-level jet will correspond to the north edge of
the richer low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints of 66-70 F),
and MLCAPE generally 1000-2000 J/kg near and south of the warm
front.

Convective mode is likely to remain rather messy through tonight,
though cellular elements are expected given modest forcing for
ascent along the deeper baroclinic zone from northeast TX eastward
near the LA/AR border. Warm sector supercell development is also
possible by early-mid afternoon from southeast into east TX (see MD
2222 for additional details), along a confluence zone (now from
VCT-CLL) and aided by cloud breaks where surface temperatures warm
into the 75-80 F range. The combination of moderate buoyancy and
sufficiently long/curved hodographs will support the threat for a
few supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes, occasional wind
damaging and isolated large hail. The threat will spread this
afternoon across east TX and then spread eastward overnight toward
MS.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 250041
SWODY1
SPC AC 250040

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Valid 250100Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EAST
TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible through the overnight
hours, from far east Texas into central/southern Mississippi.

...Synopsis...
As of 00:30 UTC, a broken line of thunderstorms continues from far
northeast LA southward towards the Houston metro area. While most
cells have remained sub-severe thus far, MRMS VIL and GOES IR
cloud-top temperature trends show a slight uptick in intensity over
the past hour. Additionally, a slight uptick in 0-2 km winds is
noted in warm-sector VWP observations, which is bolstering SRH and
improving the overall convective environment immediately downstream
of ongoing storms. This environment, characterized by STP values
between 1-2, is expected to persist through the overnight hours as
an upper wave and attendant (albeit weak) surface low translate
eastward towards the MS Valley. Some northward advancement of the
surface warm front is anticipated as low-level winds increase to
30-40 knots, which should maintain the potential for strong/severe
storms, including the potential for a few tornadoes,
east/northeastward into portions of west-central MS by 09-12 UTC. It
remains unclear exactly how far northward the surface-based warm
sector will expand through early morning, but even modest MLCAPE
(around 500 J/kg) may support a tornado threat given 0-1 km SRH on
the order of 250 m2/s2. For additional short-term details see MCD
#2225.

..Moore.. 11/25/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 250548
SWODY1
SPC AC 250546

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI INTO EAST-CENTRAL ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe storms are likely across parts of the Southeast/Deep South this morning into the early evening hours. A
couple tornadoes are possible in parts of eastern Mississippi and
Alabama.

...Synopsis...
Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a weakening upper wave over
east TX/LA translating to the east/northeast with a more compact,
amplifying upper disturbance moving into the northern High Plains.
Further de-amplification of the southern wave is anticipated over
the next 24 hours as it lifts into the Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic. As
this occurs, a weak surface low (analyzed over the mid-MS Valley as
of 05 UTC) will gradually lift to the northeast with a trailing cold
front extending from the TN Valley to the Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm
development is anticipated by mid-afternoon along this boundary
across portions of eastern MS, AL, and into the southern
Appalachians. While buoyancy will remain somewhat modest, strong
wind shear over the region will support the potential for strong to
severe thunderstorms.

...Southeast...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing by 12 UTC across portions of
central MS and northwest AL as remnants from overnight convection
begin to weaken in tandem with the early-morning maximum in
inhibition. Some re-intensification of this activity is possible by
late morning across northeast MS/northern AL as diurnal heating
increases, but confidence in the coverage/intensity is uncertain.

30-40 knot south/southwesterly flow in the 1-2 km layer will
continue to advect seasonally warm/moist air northward into central
and northeast AL by mid-afternoon. This will allow for adequate
destabilization within the warm sector for thunderstorm development
as a weak cold front begins to advance from the west. The
combination of strong, along-boundary deep-layer wind shear and weak
forcing for ascent will favor a broken line of cells/clusters by
mid-afternoon. The strong low-level winds will support a damaging
wind threat with any strong thunderstorm, and favorable low-level
helicity (especially late morning through early afternoon) will
support a tornado threat with the more intense/isolated supercells.
Through late afternoon, low-level winds veering to the southwest may
modulate the tornado threat to some degree, but damaging winds and
isolated large hail will remain possible. In general, the overall
ensemble signal for intense convection is comparatively weaker
compared to previous days, suggesting that the severe threat may be
somewhat more limited. Nonetheless, Slight-risk probabilities were
maintained for portions of southeast MS through east-central AL
where strong/severe storms appear most likely.

..Moore/Jewell.. 11/25/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 251222
SWODY1
SPC AC 251221

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0621 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM EAST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the
Southeast/Deep South this morning into the early evening hours. A
couple tornadoes are possible in parts of eastern Mississippi and
central Alabama.

...MS/AL/GA...
A progressive mid-level shortwave trough is moving across west
TN/northern MS. Strong forcing for ascent ahead of this trough has
resulted in a fast-moving line of showers and isolated thunderstorms
across northern AL this morning - now moving into northwest GA.
These storms are tracking into a progressively less unstable air
mass, with surface dewpoints only in the mid 50s. This should limit
downdraft penetration to the surface and diminish the risk of
gusty/damaging winds in the next couple of hours.

In the wake of this activity, southerly low-level winds will allow
gradual return of the moist and moderately unstable air mass into
east-central MS and central/northern AL. Large-scale forcing will
be weak the rest of the day, but pockets of daytime heating may be
sufficient for the re-development of scattered thunderstorms by
early afternoon. Those storms that form will be in an environment
of 20-30 knots of southerly low-level winds and sufficient
deep-layer shear to promote transient supercell structures.
Therefore have maintained the ongoing SLGT risk, despite weak
forcing mechanisms. Gusty winds and a risk of a few tornadoes are
the main concern.

..Hart/Dean.. 11/25/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 251628
SWODY1
SPC AC 251626

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1026 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE
EVENING FROM EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible from east central/southeast
Mississippi across central Alabama into northwest Georgia through
late evening. A couple of tornadoes, isolated wind damage and
isolated large hail will all be possible.

...MS/AL/GA through late evening...
A weakening midlevel trough will continue to eject
east-northeastward from the TN Valley to the Appalachians, in
advance of an amplifying trough from the northern Plains to the
upper MS Valley. An associated/weak surface cold front will move
southeastward across LA/MS/AL, though the majority of the convective
threat today will be focused along a residual outflow boundary from
east central MS into central AL. Low-level recovery into northeast AL/northwest GA will depend on some clearing of clouds/rain, which
is uncertain. Along and south of this boundary, that is being
loosely reinforced by ongoing convection, warming surface
temperatures into the 70s with mid-upper 60s dewpoints will
contribute to MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Forcing for ascent will
linger into the afternoon and support additional thunderstorm
development, and there will be sufficient deep-layer vertical shear
for a couple of supercells. Low-level shear/hodograph curvature
will be greatest along the residual outflow (per the BMX VWP)
through the afternoon, and then low-level flow will weaken by this
evening. A couple of tornadoes and isolated wind damage/large hail
will be possible this afternoon into this evening.

..Thompson/Wendt.. 11/25/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 251916
SWODY1
SPC AC 251915

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Valid 252000Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE
EVENING FROM EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible from east central/southeast
Mississippi across central Alabama into northwest Georgia through
late evening. A couple of tornadoes, isolated wind damage and
isolated large hail will all be possible.

...20z Update..
Only minor adjustments were made to extend the Slight Risk further
southeast across southern Alabama with this update in alignment with
recent trends. Occasional rotating cells are noted on radar across central/southern Alabama over the last couple of hours. Daytime
heating will continue across this region with occasional stronger
cell development expected through the afternoon. VAD profiles from
BMX, MXX continue to show favorable low-level curvature of
hodographs, indicative of SRH rich environments supporting rotating
cells. A couple of tornadoes, isolated wind damage, and isolated
large hail remain possible. See previous discussion below for more
information.

..Thornton.. 11/25/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025/

...MS/AL/GA through late evening...
A weakening midlevel trough will continue to eject
east-northeastward from the TN Valley to the Appalachians, in
advance of an amplifying trough from the northern Plains to the
upper MS Valley. An associated/weak surface cold front will move
southeastward across LA/MS/AL, though the majority of the convective
threat today will be focused along a residual outflow boundary from
east central MS into central AL. Low-level recovery into northeast AL/northwest GA will depend on some clearing of clouds/rain, which
is uncertain. Along and south of this boundary, that is being
loosely reinforced by ongoing convection, warming surface
temperatures into the 70s with mid-upper 60s dewpoints will
contribute to MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Forcing for ascent will
linger into the afternoon and support additional thunderstorm
development, and there will be sufficient deep-layer vertical shear
for a couple of supercells. Low-level shear/hodograph curvature
will be greatest along the residual outflow (per the BMX VWP)
through the afternoon, and then low-level flow will weaken by this
evening. A couple of tornadoes and isolated wind damage/large hail
will be possible this afternoon into this evening.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 260057
SWODY1
SPC AC 260055

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Valid 260100Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA...AND OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong storms remain possible from southern Alabama into
western Georgia and the Florida Panhandle through late evening, and
over Deep South Texas.

...AL into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle...
A marginally unstable air mass remains ahead of a cold front this
evening, extending from northwest GA across central AL. Scattered
thunderstorms are ongoing near/ahead of the front, with minimal
indications of severe potential currently. However, PWAT values up
to 1.50" persist, with minimal convective inhibition especially over
southern areas. Southwest 850 mb winds near 30 kt is also supporting
areas of 100-150 m2/s2 effective SRH, which could aid rotation in
the stronger storms. As such, will maintain the Marginal Risk, with
a low-end risk of a brief tornado or locally damaging gusts over the
next several hours.

...Deep South TX...
Weak easterly low-level flow persists this evening south of a
developing cold front, with 70s F dewpoints onshore. The 00Z CRP
sounding show minimal capping, though winds are weak below 700 mb.
Farther south, the 00Z BRO soundings still indicates substantial
capping. Latest radar already indicates convective showers may be
developing inland.

Conditionally, the environment supports hail over 1.00" diameter,
with MLCAPE over 1500 J/kg and deep-layer effective shear around 50
kt. The primary uncertainty is due to weak lift. However, the cold
front will eventually push south into the moist and unstable air
mass later tonight, and this may result in sufficient lift for a few
strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms with localized hail threat.
As such, 5% hail probabilities have been added.

..Jewell.. 11/26/2025

$$

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