ACUS11 KWNS 160741
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160740=20
NCZ000-TNZ000-160945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0105
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Tennessee...Far Western North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 160740Z - 160945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts will be possible over parts of
eastern Tennessee and far western North Carolina over the next
couple of hours. New weather watch issuance appears unlikely.

DISCUSSION...According to mosaic radar imagery, the northern end of
a squall line is currently moving through middle Tennessee. Very
little instability is analyzed ahead of the line. However, the
latest WSR-88D VWP at Morristown has 0-6 km shear near 75 knots with
30 to 40 knots of flow in the lowest 1 km. As the squall line moves
eastward into the higher terrain over the next hour or two, isolated
damaging gusts will be possible along the leading edge of the line.
Although a severe threat will likely persist, the threat is expected
to remain too localized for weather watch issuance.

..Broyles/Gleason.. 02/16/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9kWKtoECYx30Ui2cQqhhDweAxWjE62JjpEoZ1m7hNVxGx9csEQb834ApdN_wq3O-QXE-ejppK= wua7s-XEZGRk1KkqHY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...OHX...

LAT...LON 36088332 35978299 35688282 35378293 35178321 35048374
35028428 35288462 35428498 35538530 35778538 36008526
36158505 36188463 36088332=20


=3D =3D =3D
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