ACUS11 KWNS 121659
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121658=20
VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-122200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0086
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1058 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Areas affected...Far northwest North Carolina into western and
central Virginia

Concerning...Freezing rain=20

Valid 121658Z - 122200Z

SUMMARY...Another round of freezing rain is expected through the
late afternoon and evening hours in the lee of the Blue Ridge
Mountains as precipitation advances northeastward.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar mosaics show a swath of stratiform
precipitation associated with a broad mid-level warm frontal zone
spreading northeastward from northern MS/AL and TN into the western
Carolinas. Downstream from the precipitation swath, surface
temperatures in the lee of the Blue Ridge Mountains from far
northwest NC into western and central VA remain below freezing. 12
UTC soundings from GSO and RNK sampled a 4-7 C warm nose at about
850 mb that will remain in place through the remainder of the day
(if not strengthen) as warm advection increases ahead of an
approaching upper disturbance. A combination of very limited daytime
heating, continued cold air damming along the terrain, and minimal
surface heat flux (due to recent ice accumulations of 0.25 to 0.5
inch) will maintain a pocket of sub-freezing surface temperatures
and support freezing rain as the primary precipitation type.=20

The next round of freezing rain will likely begin as the upstream
precipitation swath spreads northeast through the afternoon hours.
Recent high-res solutions, which have captured overall precipitation
trends well, suggest an onset time of around 18 UTC for far
northwest NC and far southwest VA, and a later onset time of around
20 UTC for western/central VA. Persistent warm advection ahead of a
deepening low to the west will support the potential for multiple
rounds of freezing rain through late afternoon and into the evening
hours with freezing rain rates generally between 0.03 to 0.06
inches/hour (though locally higher rates appear possible).

..Moore.. 02/12/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_LnAxe6KEgEXKgBeW1douIHxZbSJ1jFsO9YiHTuy8nJL_IWvAd9p16o9ZEBToAdzuvqlsxO1A= rBy2VpfGqvtOdPkWyo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON 36947909 36727990 36428065 36198128 36008162 35958194
36228196 36598173 36928147 37488094 38307981 38407939
38467876 38287787 37997739 37677727 37387739 37177793
37077854 36947909=20


=3D =3D =3D
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