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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0081

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Feb 11 17:27:29 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 111727
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 111726=20
    VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-112230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0081
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1126 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025

    Areas affected...Far northwest North Carolina...eastern West
    Virginia...and western to central Virginia

    Concerning...Freezing rain=20

    Valid 111726Z - 112230Z

    SUMMARY...Freezing rain is expected to become more widespread in the
    lee of the Blue Ridge Mountains across far northwest North Carolina,
    far eastern West Virginia, and western to central Virginia through
    the afternoon hours. Freezing rain rates up to 0.02 to 0.04 in/hour
    appear likely.

    DISCUSSION...A broad swath of stratiform precipitation (largely
    driven by strong warm advection between 925-700 mb) continues to
    spread east/northeast across the TN Valley and into the
    southern/central Appalachians. Sub-freezing temperatures throughout
    the column this morning across WV/VA have resulted in several inches
    of snowfall per recent reports. However, mPING reports of sleet
    across northern NC/southern VA suggest that the 925-850 mb freezing
    lines are beginning to migrate northward. This trend is expected to
    continue through the afternoon hours as a subtle mid-level impulse
    (currently over the Mid-South) continues to propagate northeast
    along the mid-level baroclinic zone and augments southerly flow/warm
    air advection. This will result in gradually warming mid-level
    temperatures as the primary precipitation shield shifts east. At the
    surface, cold air damming along the lee of the Blue Ridge Mountains,
    combined with very limited diurnal heating and low-level wet-bulb
    cooling, has maintained sub-freezing temperatures from far northwest
    NC into VA. Although surface temperatures in 12 UTC guidance appear
    to be running too warm compared to 17 UTC observations, recent
    RAP/HRRR solutions have captured temperature trends well and suggest
    a transition from snow to sleet, and eventually freezing rain, will
    begin by around 18 UTC in the immediate lee of the higher terrain. Sleet/freezing rain should spread east through the afternoon with
    freezing rain rates between 0.02 to 0.04 in/hour likely for most
    locations (though locally higher rates are possible).

    ..Moore.. 02/11/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_pmg9r7GCM2nCWZSc0TBOaYDpwb4c1zPbN3HpzgabLghsaHWiSB3ZcJhXhbueLd6VZPAPbnWy= QN8C2WrFWfvliTYwrY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...

    LAT...LON 36018168 36048189 36138204 36288208 37188155 37598122
    38158082 38368054 38548010 38587977 38537922 38397875
    38027804 37717768 37467757 37277762 37147771 37067797
    37017821 37037856 37027879 37007932 36927975 36608042
    36018168=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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