ACUS11 KWNS 070041
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070041=20
VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-NCZ000-070215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0072
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0641 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025

Areas affected...Parts of middle/eastern TN into southeast KY and
far southwest VA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 4...

Valid 070041Z - 070215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 4 continues.

SUMMARY...Some threat for a tornado or two, hail, and damaging wind
will continue through the evening.

DISCUSSION...A supercell has gradually matured over the last 1-2
hours to the northeast of Nashville, while other cells continue to
develop and intensify near and just north of a surface boundary
across southeast KY. Some increase in low-level flow/shear was noted
earlier from the KOHX VWP, with short-term guidance suggesting that
low-level flow will continue to increase this evening as ongoing
convection spreads eastward into eastern TN and far southeast
KY/southwest VA. With nocturnal cooling/stabilization expected to be
only gradual through the evening, MLCAPE will likely remain in the
500-1000 J/kg range in advance of the ongoing convection, with
favorable deep-layer shear continuing to support supercell
structures and potentially one or more semi-organized clusters.=20

With only a slow increase in MLCINH expected, ongoing supercells may
persist through much of the evening, with some potential tendency
toward modest upscale growth with time. While low-level flow remains
rather veered, effective SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2 will support
some tornado threat with any persistent right-moving supercells.
Otherwise, isolated large hail will be possible, especially with any left-moving supercells, while damaging wind could accompany any
stronger supercells or organized clusters.

..Dean.. 02/07/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4nH9V8L18qJLiNsm-YbNrz2zYBZj6nuFiKRhiCVqvIlUuT484VBe4-I8I59fTgdkJJpnTd_eS= HCW4cmxkDA5wehUw0Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON 37188239 36728210 36528206 36028259 35718317 35648440
35698527 35888546 36518537 36898492 37048449 37268346
37278306 37188239=20


=3D =3D =3D
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