07/21/2023

Average daily sunspot numbers declined, but average daily solar flux increased. Sunspot averages were 181.9 last week, and 130.6 this week.ÿ Average daily solar flux increased from 179.4 to 190.5.

Two new sunspot groups emerged on July 14, three more on July 17 and another two on July 19.

Average daily planetary and middle latitude A index were both 12.9 this week, rising from 8.6 and 8.1.

Predicted solar flux is 185 on July 21-23, then 180, 178, 175 and 170 on July 24-27, 165 on July 28-29, 170 on July 30-31, 165 on August 1-4, then 170, 175, 175 and 170 on August 5-8, 165 on August 9-11, 170 on August 12, 175 on August 13-14, and 170 on August 15-19, 160 on August 20-23, 165 on August 24-25, then 170 on August 26-27 and 165 on August 28-31.

Predicted planetary A index is 20, 12, 8, 12 and 10 on July 21-25, 5 on July 26 through August 2, then 10 and 8 on August 3-4, 5 on August 5-14, then 12, 8 and 8 on August 15-17, and 5 on August 18-29.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere for July 20, 2023 from OK1HH.

"We've seen another seven days of mostly moderate solar activity, with almost daily eruptions of moderate magnitude on the Sun.ÿ Some of these have been the source of CMEs.ÿ If the Earth has been affected by them, a geomagnetic disturbance followed, with a drop in MUF and a worsening of HF propagation in the process.

As predicted, the expected CME hit the Earth's magnetic field on the afternoon of 14 July (as part of the Bastille Day celebrations, but not nearly as strongly as in 2000).

Another CME left the Sun on 14 July, and yet another on July 15. Because the cloud of later ejected solar plasma was faster, it cannibalized the previous CME.ÿ Together, they hit the Earth on July 18.

But by then AR3363 had already produced a significant long-lasting M6-class solar flare, and energetic protons accelerated by this flare reached the Earth and caused a radiation storm.ÿ Although MUFs were quite high, HF conditions were adversely affected by frequent occurrences of attenuation.

Another CME hit the Earth on 20 July, registered by the Earth's magnetic field at 1708 UTC.

Further developments were predicted up to G1 to G2 class geomagnetic storms, with a small probability also of G3, but by then this report will have been completed and sent out.

Finally, just a little note on the consequences of global change: it has been manifested in the last eleven-year cycles, in the Earth's troposphere it is the result of warming, but in the ionosphere it is rather the opposite.ÿ It has been the subject of a number of scientific papers in recent years.

It is crucial for us, for amateur radio practice, that the current MUFs are lower than those calculated from sunspot counts for most of the twentieth century.ÿ Therefore, we should input Ri (or solar flux SFU) into forecast programs lower than what is currently measured and published.

F.K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/[1] ÿ"

News from N8II in West Virginia.

"The bands are in much better shape than most hams realize; activity levels are normally quite low this summer.ÿ In the IARU contest I observed 15M open to Europe through 0300 UTC and I had QSOs with Indonesia, China, Nepal, Japan, Central/Western Siberia, Kazakhstan, and the Philippines in the 2300-0300 UTC period.ÿ I copied GR2HQ (Great Britain HQ station) on 10M CW at 0140 UTC.ÿ At 1100 UTC on 15M EU and Central/West Asia were very loud and I started running a pile up on CW.

The Far East was also in on 15M around 1400 UTC Saturday when I worked a loud Japanese station.

During the evening/night EU signals were extremely loud on 20M.ÿ I also worked a few EU on 10M 1300-1400 UTC Saturday thanks to Sporadic E and also caught Z30HQ (Macedonia HQ) on 10M CW Sunday about 1130 UTC.ÿ I worked 697 QSOs concentrating on DX on the high bands in less than 12 hours with 100 W.

Africa is workable on 10-15M well into our evening as are South Pacific stations.

Sporadic E this year seems somewhat attenuated, but Es was good from here and great from the Central/Western USA during the June VHF contest.ÿ I made about 170 CW/SSB QSOs."

CNN presented a smart piece on the sunspot cycle peaking sooner than expected. https://bit.ly/3rzNJJ6[2]

Double peaked flare.ÿ https://bit.ly/46ZoznE[3]

Astronomy club observes sunspots.ÿ https://bit.ly/46SaacR[4]

Aurora.ÿ https://bit.ly/44FxM2U[5]

Scientific American.ÿ https://bit.ly/3rHzGkB[6]

Early peak.ÿ https://bit.ly/44Aa7AF[7]ÿhttps://bit.ly/3rEa0Wj[8]

Cannibal eruption.ÿ https://bit.ly/3Q5dv1W[9]

Great video of eruption.ÿ https://youtu.be/YOzHHM4B4gA[10]

The latest from Space Weather Woman Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

https://youtu.be/KsKDVOuboyw[11]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[12] .ÿ When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[13] ÿand the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[14] ÿ.ÿ For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see

http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[15] ÿ.

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf[16]

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at

http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[17] ÿ. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[18]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[19]

Sunspot numbers for July 13 through 19, 2023 were 146, 141, 96, 99, 149, 142, and 141, with a mean of 130.6.ÿ 10.7 cm flux was 202.9, 180.6, 178.5, 184.3, 180, 218.5, and 188.9, with a mean of 190.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 20, 8, 10, 24, 16, and 5, with a mean of 12.9.ÿ Middle latitude A index was 9, 17, 9, 13, 19, 16, and 7, with a mean of 12.9.


[1] http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/
[2] https://bit.ly/3rzNJJ6
[3] https://bit.ly/46ZoznE
[4] https://bit.ly/46SaacR
[5] https://bit.ly/44FxM2U
[6] https://bit.ly/3rHzGkB
[7] https://bit.ly/44Aa7AF
[8] https://bit.ly/3rEa0Wj
[9] https://bit.ly/3Q5dv1W
[10] https://youtu.be/YOzHHM4B4gA
[11] https://youtu.be/KsKDVOuboyw
[12] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[13] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[14] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[15] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[16] https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf
[17] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[18] http://k9la.us/
[19] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

07/28/2023

ÿAverage daily sunspot numbers declined slightly over the past week (July 20-26) to 128.1, compared to 130.6 over the previous seven days.

Average daily solar flux declined significantly from 190.5 to 172.2.

The solar flux forecast sees values at 165 and 162 on July 28-29, 158 on July 30-31, then 155 on August 1-3, then 165, 170 and 175 on August 4-6, 180 on August 7-10, 175 on August 11-13, 180 on August 14-15, 175 on August 16-18, 170 on August 19, then 165, 165 and 160 on August 20-22, and 155 on August 23-26, 160 on August 27, 165 on August 28-30, 170 and 175 on August 31 through September 1, and 180 on September 2-6.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on July 28-29, 15 and 10 on July 30-31, 5 on August 1-3, 8 on August 4, 5 on August 5-9, 10 on August 10, 8 on August 11-13, 5 on August 14-19, then 10, 8 and 5 on August 20-22, 12 on August 23-24, 10 on August 25-26, 5 on August 27-29, 10 and 8 on August 30-31, and 5 on September 1-5.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere -- July 27, 2023 from OK1HH.

"The likelihood of more massive solar flares has slowly decreased in recent days as large groups of spots have fallen behind the western limb of the solar disk and the magnetic configuration of the ÿremaining regions has become increasingly simple over the past few days.

On July 20 and 21, two CMEs struck Earth's magnetic field in accordance with the prediction. However, both impacts were weak and did not produce even a minor geomagnetic storm.

Another weak halo CME was expected to leave the Sun on 23 July at about 1530 UTC in a C5 class flare in spot group AR3376, coinciding with the outburst of a relatively nearby magnetic filament. The Earth's magnetic field detected its arrival at 0200 UTC on 26 July. The result was an increase in geomagnetic activity and a deterioration of shortwave propagation conditions. The disturbance actually started on 25 July at 2235 UTC, but it was not clear whether it was an early arrival of the same CME or another one that we did not detect.

Note: since I will be abroad next week, I will not post the next comment on August 3, but on August 10."

Sunspots, flares and aurora.ÿ https://bit.ly/44JxcRp[1]

Mars Rover sees the far side of the sun.ÿ https://bit.ly/3KbRV8b[2]

Rocket punches hole in ionosphere.ÿ https://bit.ly/3KceBFB[3]

Nearly five decades ago I witnessed the same thing, viewed from Marin County, California. It was a huge dramatic display, My friend had seen it before, and said it was created by a rocket launch from Vandenberg AFB in Southern California.

Another CME.ÿ https://bit.ly/44LhRjx[4]

On July 27, Spaceweather.com sent this alert:

"A STRONG FARSIDE CME JUST HIT SOLAR ORBITER: Europe's Solar Orbiter just got hit by the kind of CME that may have once caused a major power blackout on Earth. This time, Earth was not in the line of fire. It was a farside eruption that flew away from our planet. Maybe next time?"

Massive flare?ÿ https://bit.ly/3Ya7OSC[5]

Latest from Dr. Tamitha Skov.ÿ https://youtu.be/cD5VbWvBXsE[6]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[7] . When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[8] ÿand the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[9] . For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[10]

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf[11]

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[12] . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[13]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[14]

Sunspot numbers for July 20 through 26, 2023 were 131, 121, 103, 117, 141, 137, and 147, with a mean of 128.1ÿ 10.7 cm flux was 184.3, 172.8, 174.4, 172.5, 165.1, 169, and 167.4, with a mean of 172.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 13, 9, 6, 7, 11, and 21, with a mean of 11. Middle latitude A index was 10, 11, 9, 5, 8, 12, and 23, with a mean of 11.1.


[1] https://bit.ly/44JxcRp
[2] https://bit.ly/3KbRV8b
[3] https://bit.ly/3KceBFB
[4] https://bit.ly/44LhRjx
[5] https://bit.ly/3Ya7OSC
[6] https://youtu.be/cD5VbWvBXsE
[7] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[8] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[11] https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf
[12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[13] http://k9la.us/
[14] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

08/18/2023

Eleven new sunspot groups emerged over the past week, August 10-16, but average solar indicators declined.

There were two new sunspots groups on August 11, three more on August 13, another on August 14, two more on August 15, and three more on August 16. On August 17 another new one appeared.

But average daily sunspot numbers declined from 108.9 to 95.7, while average daily solar flux dropped from 166.4 to 154.2.

Predicted solar flux is 150, 155, and 157 on August 18-20, 160 on August 21-22, then 162, 165, 162, 160 and 164 on August 23-27, 168 on August 28-31, then 165, 163 and 160 on September 1-3, then 158, 155, 152 and 150 on September 4-7, and 148, 142, 140 and 130 on September 8-11, 135 on September 12-14, and 145, 150, 155, 158 and 160 on September 15-19, 162 on September 20-21, then 160 and 164 on September 22-23, and 168 on September 24-27.

Predicted planetary A index is 12 and 8 on August 18-19, 5 on August 20-25, 12 on August 26, 5 on August 27 through September 5, then 10, 8 and 8 on September 6-8, 5 on September 9-11, then 12, 15, 12 and 8 on September 12-15, 5 on September 16-21, 12 on September 22, and 5 on September 23 through the end of the month.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere August 18-24, 2023 from OK1HH:

"Solar activity has declined, both spot and flare. We have usually observed C-class solar flares, although the configurations of some active regions did not preclude the formation of M-class flares. We expect an upsurge in solar activity in the last five days of August, after which more sunspot groups should appear at the eastern limb of the solar disk.

The Earth's ionosphere was quite sensitive to the increased influx of protons in the accelerated solar wind on 11 August and again on 16-17 August. Propagation improved on August 14-15 and worsened on August 16. I do not expect any other surprises before the end of the month."

Bil Paul, KD6JUI, who often reports HF operations from his kayak, wrote:

"I recently returned from a vacation at Lake Tahoe where I was running 10 watts into an end-fed half-wave wire vertical. The rental place was surrounded by extra-tall pine trees, but the base of the antenna was 30 feet above the ground on a high porch.

My discovery (on the evenings of August 7 and 9, around 8 p.m. Pacific Coast time) was that CW DX was coming in on the 30-meter band. On the 7th, I contacted OV1CDX in Denmark on that band (and heard him again on subsequent nights). On the 9th, I contacted 6B2A in Egypt, who was coming in a solid S4.

I had a couple other CW DX twilight/early-night contacts on 15 and 20 meters, but the 30 meter contacts surprised me."

N4KZ reports from Frankfort, Kentucky:

"Last week, I began copying SSB signals from Europe on the 10 and 12-meter bands.ÿ They were weak but readable. It was the first time I've heard SSB signals on those bands from that part of the world in many months. Then, on August 15th beginning at 1248 UTC, I worked stations across Europe and the Middle East on 12-meter SSB with strong signals.

About 20 minutes earlier, I tuned across the 10-meter phone band and only copied one signal. It was S79VU, Ravi, in the Seychelles. He was about S5 and working Europeans who I did not copy. But he came back to me on my first call. We've worked before but this was our first 10-meter QSO. It's only mid-August, but perhaps autumn propagation is beginning to emerge and with the continuing high sunspot count, I hope this marks the start of better HF conditions this fall and winter. I run about 800 watts into a multi-band Yagi with 3 active elements on each band. The antenna is up 55 feet. I live on a hilltop with a steep slope toward the north which has proven over the years to be an advantage.

On July 1, I once again became active on the low-end of 2 meters doing weak-signal work. I was quite active on SSB and CW on the low end throughout the 1980s and '90s and to a lesser extent until about 2010. I worked 40 states from Kentucky but eventually decided to concentrate on HF and 6 meters. But I missed 2 meters and now I have returned.

There's less SSB and CW than there used to be but quite a few are operating FT8 on 144.174 MHz which does a nice job with weak signals. So far I have worked 15 states and Ontario. Morning propagation a couple hours after sunrise allows for 300-400 mile QSOs routinely on FT8. And I've copied stations from Colorado, Long Island, NY and Connecticut on meteor scatter while using MSK144. After a 12-year hiatus from 2-meter weak-signal work, it's good to be back."

AA6XE in Fremont, California wrote:

"Interesting conditions on 10 meters although not that unusual. In the last couple of days propagation into the Pacific Northwest has materialized. A bunch of Beacons have surfaced. Beacons from

Portland to well north of Vancouver BC are coming in every afternoon. I heard Tad Cook's (K7RA) 10 meter beacon yesterday (Aug 13). Beacons out of Mexico have been coming in on 10 Meters for over a month. Some of those beacons are located as far South as Veracruz. Beacons from Australia have been coming through on most days over the last month. NCDXF beacons VK6RBP in Western Australia and 4S7B in Sri Lanka were heard on 15 Meters for a few days.

While propagation on 10 to the Pacific Northwest may not seem like much I recognize it as a marker that the days of summer propagation are numbered. Typically this doesn't happen until the last 2 weeks in August so it appears to be early this year. So like the Crocuses popping up in late February it doesn't do much for one aside from reminding us that better times are on the way.

As to what we can expect this Fall it looks to be much improved over last year and at the peak of Cycle 24. The 90 day mean SFI currently stands at 166. Last year at this time 90 day mean stood at 114. The 90 day Mean SFI for the peak of Solar Cycle 24 was 155.ÿ The 90 Day Mean made a significant run-up during late Spring early Summer increasing 21 points. For the last 5 weeks the Daily SFI has been sliding. It hasn't dropped enough to impact the 90 and 81 Day Mean Values just yet, but if the decline continues those numbers will sag.

The rising phase of SC25 has its own characteristics. The solar flux rises rapidly for 4 to 8 weeks followed by an extended period of decline for 2 to 3 months. This makes it difficult to see the overall trend. It even faked out a number of heliophysicists who made the call that SC 25 had peaked in February 2023. The latest predictions call for SC 25 to peak at year-end 2023/2024. A few are calling for SC 25 to peak at mid-year 2024. It would be a pleasant surprise if the next surge kicks off a few weeks early, say by the first days of September. That would make a big impact of the conditions we can expect on 6 Meters this Fall."

The latest from Tamitha Skov: https://youtu.be/zjldvH1NYxg[1]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[2] .ÿ When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.


For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information Service at:

http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[3] .

For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see:

http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[4] .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf[5]

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at:ÿ

http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6] .

More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[8] .

Sunspot numbers for August 10 through 16, 2023 were 83, 105, 61, 89, 85, 107, and 140, with a mean of 95.7ÿ 10.7 cm flux was 155.7, 152.8, 148.3, 150.4, 154, 158.1, and 160.1, with a mean of 154.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 5, 8, 5, 5, 4, and 8, with a mean of 6. Middle latitude A index was 8, 6, 10, 7, 6, 7, and 10, with a mean of 7.7.


[1] https://youtu.be/zjldvH1NYxg
[2] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[5] https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf
[6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[7] http://k9la.us/
[8] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

08/25/2023

Five new sunspot groups emerged this week, one on August 17, another August 18, two more on August 21 and another on August 22. ÿ

ÿAverage daily sunspot numbers rose slightly, while average daily solar flux declined. Average daily sunspot numbers went from 95.7 to 105.9 and average daily solar flux declined from 154.2 to 149.4.

No big geomagnetic events this week, and average daily planetary A index changed from 6 to 8.4 while average daily middle latitude index went from 7.7 to 10.1.

Predicted solar flux is 145 on August 25-26, 150 on August 27, 155 on August 28-29, 160 on August 30-31, then 165, 163 and 160 on September 1-3, 162 on September 4-5, 158 on September 6-7, then 160 and 162 on September 8-9, 158 on September 10-11, 155 on September 12, 152 on September 13-15, 153 on September 16-18, 155 on September 19, and 158 on September 20-23, 162 on September 24-25, 165 on September 26-28, then 163 and 160 on September 29-30.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on August 25, then 5, 10 and 8 on August 26-28, 5 on August 29 through September 5, then 10, 8 and 8 on September 6-8, 5 on September 9-13, 12 on September 14, 10 on September 15-17, and 5 on September 18 through the end of the month.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere August 25-31, 2023 from F. K. Janda, OK1HH.

Although solar activity has been rated as low over the last seven days, let's not be misled by an assessment based mainly on the number and importance of flares. Solar activity continues to increase toward the peak of cycle 25, expected in two years. Projected into the highest usable ionospheric F2 layer frequencies, this means that we may finally be able to look forward to a wide opening of the ten-meter band for DX shortwave contacts. If it occurs during this fall, we can expect the 25th cycle maximum to be quite high after all.

It was pretty quiet over the weekend as all eight sunspot groups had stable magnetic fields. Despite another large sunspot appearing in the meantime, apparently magnetically connected to another sunspot on the other side of the solar equator, there was still not much going on. Only the M1.1 0 class solar flare on August 22 at 2304 UTC was an exception. But although it lasted long enough to carry a CME out of the solar atmosphere, it evidently did not.

On August 23, a filament erupted near the southwest limb of the Sun. If it envelops the Earth, it would likely not happen until August 27, with a possible G1 class storm.

Max White, M0VNG sent this about solar wind: https://bit.ly/3YQToa7[1]

Reader Jeremy Gill of Seattle, WA contributed this article on aurora and the ionosphere: https://bit.ly/44sRGgh[2] ÿ.

Warnings about solar activity, some a bit shrill:

https://bit.ly/3qHy6za[3] ÿÿhttps://bit.ly/3YLsoc[4]ÿ

https://bit.ly/3QNx8w3[5] ÿÿhttps://bit.ly/3OJRCTP[6]

A new video from Tamitha Skov:ÿ https://youtu.be/lU8s7RmlSfE[7]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[8] .ÿ When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[9] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[10] ÿ. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[11] ÿ.

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf[12]

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at:

http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13] .

More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14]
.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[15] .

Sunspot numbers for August 17 through 23, 2023 were 135, 112, 104, 93, 102, 96, and 99, with a mean of 105.9.ÿ 10.7 cm flux was 151.9, 150.6, 150.6, 146.3, 148.7, 150.9, and 147, with a mean of 149.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 11, 8, 11, 9, 8, and 4, with a mean of 8.4.ÿ Middle latitude A index was 10, 14, 8, 12, 10, 12, and 5, with a mean of 10.1.


[1] https://bit.ly/3YQToa7
[2] https://bit.ly/44sRGgh
[3] https://bit.ly/3qHy6za
[4] https://bit.ly/3YLsoc
[5] https://bit.ly/3QNx8w3
[6] https://bit.ly/3OJRCTP
[7] https://youtu.be/lU8s7RmlSfE
[8] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[9] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[10] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[11] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[12] https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf
[13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[14] http://k9la.us/
[15] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

09/01/2023

First, this alert from Australia.

"ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 0706UTC/31 AUGUST 2023 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

A filament eruption and associated coronal mass ejection (CME) were observed on UT day 30-Aug. This CME is expected to impact Earth from 1800 UT +/- 12 hours on 02-Sep, with impacts possibly rolling into UT day 03-Sep. G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions are expected over this time, with a chance for periods of G3."

Solar activity was down again this week, with average daily sunspot numbers dropping from 105.9 to 78.7, and average daily solar flux from 149.4 to 140.9.

Only three sunspot groups appeared, one each on August 25, 28 and 30.

But I have noticed a gradual transition from summer toward fall conditions, with 10 and 12 meter openings more frequent. The autumnal equinox is only three weeks from now.

Geomagnetic indicators were a little lower. Average planetary A index went from 8.4 to 7, and average middle latitude numbers from 10.1 to 8.9.

What is the outlook?

Predicted solar flux shows a peak around 168 on September 18-21.

Forecast values are 140 on September 1, then 150, 150 and 145 on September 2-4, 150 on September 5-9, 147 on September 10-11, then 145, 150, 155, 150, 155 and 160 on September 12-17, 168 on September 18-21, then 165, 160, and 148 on September 22-24, 150 on September 25-26, then 152, 150, 145,and 140 on September 27-30, then 145 on October 1, 150 on October 2-3, 152 on October 4, 156 on October 5-6, 150 on October 7. and 148 on October 8-9.

Predicted planetary A index is 10, 12 and 35 on September 1-3, then 15, 10 and 8 on September 4-6, 5 on September 7-13, then 12, 10, 10 and 8 on September 14-17, 5 on September 18-22, then 10, 10 and 8 on September 23-25, 5 on September 26 to October 2, then 10, 8 and 8 on October 3-5, and 5 on October 6-10.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere for September 1-7, 2023 from OK1HH.

"On 27 August, we predicted a rise in geomagnetic activity, triggered by the arrival of particles from the filament solar flares three days earlier. It did occur, but to a lesser extent than we expected. No significant solar flare (at least of M-class) was observed until 25 August, which is somewhat surprising for the current phase of Cycle 25 development.

We did not see a major flare until August 26 at 2250 UTC, and it was an M1-class solar flare, hidden behind the Sun's eastern edge, but it was a long duration eruption (LDE). It was accompanied by a CME, which of course was not heading toward Earth, but in this case Mars (which it should hit on September 1).

The coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed on August 29 at about 1748 UTC near the coordinates N05W35. Another major solar flare, C3, was observed on August 30 with a maximum at 2334 UTC at AR 3413.

Prior to that, a filament of solar plasma disappeared near S18W24 at 2015 UTC.

Still, we expect only a slight increase in Earth's magnetic field activity in the next few days.

Ionospheric propagation has varied erratically, with partial credit due to the sporadic E layer that occurred irregularly in Earth's northern hemisphere late this summer."

India's solar mission:ÿ https://bit.ly/3PiPJ1N[1]

Flares:ÿ https://bit.ly/47X6gzC[2]

Four hours of Tamitha Skov and extreme space weather events:

https://youtu.be/_Li9wxmmbQs[3]

This weekend is the phone portion of the All Asia DX Contest:

https://bit.ly/43GPrXq[4]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[5] .ÿ When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[6] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7] . For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see: ÿ

http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8] .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf[9]

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11] ÿ.

Sunspot numbers for August 24 through 30, 2023 were 86, 77, 75, 69, 68, 82, and 94, with a mean of 78.7.ÿ 10.7 cm flux was 144.1, 138.9, 139.3, 141.5, 141.7, 142.2, and 138.6, with a mean of 140.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 5, 7, 11, 6, 5, and 6, with a mean of 7. Middle latitude A index was 9, 7, 9, 13, 8, 7, and 9, with a mean of 8.9.


[1] https://bit.ly/3PiPJ1N
[2] https://bit.ly/47X6gzC
[3] https://youtu.be/_Li9wxmmbQs
[4] https://bit.ly/43GPrXq
[5] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[6] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[9] https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf
[10] http://k9la.us/
[11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

09/08/2023

At 0046 UTC on September 8, the Australian Space Weather Forecasting
Centre issued this alert:

"A solar filament erupted from the north east quadrant of the Sun on
07-Sep. Event modeling shows an edge of the associated north east
directed CME may graze the Earth's magnetosphere on 10-Sep.
INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION FOR 10 SEPTEMBER 2023."

Eight new sunspot groups emerged this week, one on September 2, two
on September 3, two more on September 4, and one each on September
5-6, followed by another on Thursday, September 7.

Average daily sunspot number was up, from 78.7 to 95.4, while
average daily solar flux was less, from 140.9 to 137.6.

Geomagnetic activity was higher. On September 2 the planetary A
index was 38, when Earth moved through a high speed solar wind. In
Alaska, the college A index at Fairbanks was 59.

Average daily planetary A index increased from 7 to 15.4, and
average middle latitude A index rose from 8.9 to 16.3.

Predicted solar flux is 155, 158 and 155 on September 8-10, 150 on
September 11-16, then 155, 150, 155 and 150 on September 17-20, 145
on September 21-22, 150 on September 23-24, 145 on September 25, 140
on September 26-27, 135 on September 28-30, then 130, 135, 130 and
135 on October 1-4, then 140 on October 5-6, then 135, 135 and 140
on October 7-9, 145 on October 10-11, 150 on October 12-13, then
155, 150, 155 and 150 on October 14-17.

Predicted planetary A index 10 and 12 on September 8-9, 8 on
September 10-13, then 5, 8, and 12 on September 14-16, 8 on
September 17-18, 5 on September 19-22, 12 on September 23, 5 on
September 24-27, then 8, 12, 5 and 12 on September 28 through
October 1, then 12, 10, 12 and 10 on October 2-5, and 5 on October
6-10, then 10, 8 and 12 on October 11-13, and 8 on October 14-15,
and 5 over the following week.

I observed interesting 12 meter propagation using FT8 on September
4, at 1745 UTC with https://pskreporter.info/pskmap.html[1] in which my
signal was only received over a narrow 300 mile band hugging the East
Coast from Maine to Florida, all signal reports between 2200 to 2500
miles away, nowhere else.

Three hours later at 2045 UTC, the reports along the coast expanded
to 600 miles, 2000 to 2600 miles wide.

Later at 2300 UTC it was the same pattern, but a 200 mile band,
2300-2500 miles wide.

The next day at 1700 UTC it was an arc from Virginia to South Texas,
1700 to 2300 miles. At 1715 UTC it drifted to coverage of 1750 to
2600 miles.

Before FT8 and pskreporter, there was no practical way for me to
observe any of this. Who knew?

Rick Cochran, WO8L wrote:

"So, despite all of the indicators being pretty good, why are the
bands so terrible?

"In the nearly 60 years I've been a ham this Sun cycle has
consistently been a dud compared to past cycles, especially during
the day.

"So many of us would like to know why."

I replied:

"Good question. You aren't the only one to ask."

There is a theory that carbon in the atmosphere or a warming climate contributes to this, but I do not understand the mechanism. K9LA
told me that models do not support this, but at the moment I cannot
recall what those models are. This issue was discussed in previous
bulletins.

Another theory is that this is a perception issue related to the
widespread adoption of FT8, in which users of traditional modes see
less activity on CW and SSB and perceive poorer propagation as a
result.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - September 7, 2023, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:
ÿ
"In late August, as AR3413 approached the northwestern limb of the
solar disk, its eruptive activity began to increase, even though its
size and magnetic configuration did not suggest it. However, we
observed it at a very low angle, so we may have missed details.

"Either way, it was the source of several C- and M-class flares, at
least two of which (on August 30 and September 1) ejected CMEs. Both
hit the Earth triggering a G2 class geomagnetic storm. For shortwave propagation, this meant a significant improvement and increase in
MUF in the positive phase of the disturbance on 2 September
0900-1300 UTC, followed by a deterioration for the next few days.

"AR3413 meanwhile, continued with increased eruptive activity on the
Sun's far side, including a massive CME on 5 September, but it no
longer affected the Earth. It merely 'ripped off the tail' (a
disconnection event) of comet Nishimura (C/2023 P1), which is
approaching the Sun. Its closest approach will be on September 17.

"A relative improvement in shortwave propagation did not occur until
September 5, with a jump in solar wind speed at 1439 UTC. Meanwhile,
active region AR3421 began to grow significantly around the central
meridian.

"The magnetic configuration points to the possibility of
geoeffective flares. This was followed by the growth of other active
regions in the northeast of the solar disk, so that solar activity
remains elevated. Since we expect the Earth's magnetic field to calm
down, shortwave propagation conditions should gradually improve.
Seasonal changes as the equinoxes approach will also contribute to
this."

The Autumnal Equinox in the northern hemisphere is just two weeks
away.

Here is a solar cycle prediction:

https://bit.ly/45Gxb1n[2]

Nice video, once you get past the ads:

https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8nub71[3]

A "Solar Orbiter EUI" video from Max White, M0VNG and the European
Space Agency:

https://bit.ly/44JG2hr[4]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[5] . When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[6]

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9] .

Sunspot numbers for August 31 through September 6, 2023 were 77, 83,
77, 79, 100, 121, and 131, with a mean of 95.4ÿ 10.7 cm flux was
139.9, 135.8, 131.2, 130.5, 136, 142.9, and 147.1, with a mean of
137.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 12, 38, 25, 8, 11, and
8, with a mean of 15.4. Middle latitude A index was 8, 15, 25, 28,
14, 14, and 10, with a mean of 16.3.


[1] https://pskreporter.info/pskmap.html
[2] https://bit.ly/45Gxb1n
[3] https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8nub71
[4] https://bit.ly/44JG2hr
[5] k7ra@arrl.net
[6] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[8] http://k9la.us/
[9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

09/15/2023

Like last week, eight new sunspot groups emerged this reporting
week, September 7-13.

One appeared on September 7, another September 9, four more on
September 10, another on September 11 and one more on September 12.

Solar activity made a nice comeback, with average daily sunspot
numbers rising from 95.4 to 138.1, and solar flux from 137.6 to
159.9.

The most active geomagnetic day was September 12, when the planetary
A index was 25. Spaceweather.com reported a "stealth CME"
(unexpected) that had aurora visible down as far as Missouri.

Average daily planetary A index decreased from 15.4 to 10.4, and
middle latitude numbers from 16.3 to 11.3.

The Autumnal Equinox in the Northern Hemisphere is just a week away,
on September 22.

It seems that the next sustained short term peak in solar flux is a
few weeks off, with values between 150 and 155 over October 12-17,
although it is expected to reach 150 on September 23-24.

The forecast shows solar flux at 145, 148, 145 and 145 on September
15-18, 140 on September 19-21, 145 on September 22, 150 on September
23-24, 145 on September 25, 140 on September 26-27, 135 on September
28-30, then 130, 135, 130 and 135 on October 1-4, 140 on October
5-6, 135 on October 7-8, 140 on October 9, 145 on October 10-11, 150
om October 12-13, then 155, 150, 155 and 150 on October 14-17, 145
on October 18-19, and 150 on October 20-21.

Predicted planetary A index is 15 on September 15, 8 on September
16-17, then 5, 5, and 10 on September 18-20, 5, 8 and 12 on
September 21-23, 5 on September 24-27, then 8, 12 and 8 on September
28-30, and 5 on October 1-8, then 15, 12, 10 and 8 on October 9-12,
5 on October 13-19, 12 on October 20, and 5 on October 21-24.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - September 15-22, 2023 from OK1HH.
ÿ
"A week ago, the active sunspot group AR3414 dominated the solar
disk. It is now on the far side of the Sun. This role has been taken
over by AR3423, now approaching the western limb of the solar disk.
It will be followed the next day by the slightly smaller AR3425. The
important information is that we observe a coronal hole near both of
them (closer to AR3425). This configuration was the likely cause of
the surprise: Few people expected the Earth to be hit by a CME on
September 12 at 1237 UT.

"Then a massive disturbance of the Earth's magnetic field developed.
Its initial positive phase increased the MUF values on September 12.
This was followed by a negative phase, which in turn caused a
significant decrease in MUF, with worsened shortwave propagation
conditions on 13 September. This was followed by a gradual
improvement on 14 September, when the magnetic filament connecting
sunspots AR3423 and AR3425 erupted. The consequence could be a G1 to G2 class geomagnetic storm in the Earth's vicinity on 17 September."

Jon Jones, N0JK wrote from Kansas:

"Sunday afternoon and evening (September 10-11) strong sporadic-E on
6 meters took place.

"This set up links to TEP on to South America.

"The hot spot seemed to be south Central Kansas and northeast
Oklahoma. KF0M in EM17 worked many South American stations. From
EM28, the Es was not lined up that well.

"Had many strong stations in south Texas and northern Mexico.
Around 2250 UTC LU1MQF (FF55) and CE4MBH (FF44) appeared for a few minutes on 50.313 MHz FT8.

"Any sporadic-E is a treat in the September ARRL VHF contest (which
was last weekend). With Solar Cycle 25 picking up, the Es can link
to TEP."

An article about the Sun from IFLScience:

https://www.iflscience.com/has-part-of-the-sun-really-become-broken-70653
[1]
The latest from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/S2IOBwSo_LI[2]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[3] .When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[4]

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[5] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[6] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[7] .

Sunspot numbers for September 7 through 13, 2023 were 135, 123, 119,
167, 173, 141, and 109, with a mean of 138.1.ÿ 10.7 cm flux was
160.8, 160.9, 161.4, 163.9, 176.4, 153.5, and 142.6, with a mean of
159.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 6, 8, 4, 7, 25, and 17,
with a mean of 10.4. Middle latitude A index was 11, 8, 12, 6, 8,
17, and 17, with a mean of 11.3.

ÿ


[1] https://www.iflscience.com/has-part-of-the-sun-really-become-broken-70653 [2] https://youtu.be/S2IOBwSo_LI
[3] k7ra@arrl.net
[4] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[6] http://k9la.us/
[7] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

09/22/2023

ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 0249UTC on 22 SEPTEMBER 2023 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE:

"Solar wind streams from a pair of coronal holes are expected to
mildly increase geomagnetic activity at times during the interval
late 22-Sep to 24-Sep.

"INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED FROM 22-24 SEPTEMBER 2023."

Nine new sunspot groups appeared this week, but the averages were
lower.

A new sunspot group appeared every day from September 15-17, four
more on September 18, and one each day on September 19-20.

On Thursday, the start of the next reporting week two more sunspot
groups appeared.

Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 138.1 to 118.4, while
average daily solar flux went from 159.9 to 149.3.

The Autumnal Equinox in the Northern Hemisphere occurs on Saturday,
September 23 at 2:50 AM EDT, or 0650z.ÿ The change in seasons has
been evident recently with improving propagation on 10 and 12
meters.

A fast moving CME hit Earth on September 18, sparking dramatic
displays of aurora across the northern tier of North America and in
Europe as far south as France.

Alaska's college A index was 49 and 61 on September 18-19, while the
planetary A index was 30 and 49.

Predicted solar flux is 162, 162 and 165 on September 22-24, 160 on
September 25-28, 135 on September 29-30, then 130, 135, 130 and 135
on October 1-4, 140 on October 5-6, 135 on October 7-8, then 140,
145 and 145 on October 9-11, then 150, 150, 155 and 150 on October
12-15, and 155, 150, 145 and 145 on October 16-19, then 150, 150 and
145 on October 20-22, 140 on October 23-24, 135 on October 25-27,
then 130, 135, 130 and 135 on October 28-31.

Predicted planetary A index is 15 on September 22, 22 on September
23-24, then 12 and 8 on September 25-26, 5 on September 27-28, 12
and 8 on September 29-30, 5 October 1-11, 8 on October 12, then 5 on
October 13-19, 12 on October 20, 5 on October 21-24, then 8, 12 and
8 on October 25-27, then 5 on October 28 into the first week of
November.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - September 21, 2023 from OK1HH:
ÿ
"Although the site https://solarham.net/ [1]launched on March 15, 2006,
created and still maintained solely by Kevin,VE3EN, is primarily
intended for amateur radio users, it is also very well regarded by
professional astronomers. In addition to information about the Sun,
it contains everything needed to understand the causes of changes in
the ionosphere, and also provides an overview and forecast of the
Earth's magnetic field activity. On Thursday, September 21, we read:
'Solar activity is predicted to remain at low (C-Flares) to moderate
(M-Flares) levels during the next 24 hours. AR-3435 is considered
the most likely region to produce a moderate to strong solar flare.'

"The information can be supplemented by saying that the level of
solar activity has been rising in recent days, and this rise was
accompanied by an increase in solar wind speed from 400 km/s to over
600 km/s between 18-20 September. In particular, the solar wind
proton influx increased significantly on 18 September; moreover, a
geomagnetic disturbance with intensity G2 (Moderate) to G3 (Strong)
took place on 18-19 September.

"The Earth's ionosphere responded to these events with a significant
decrease in MUF, especially since 18 September. Shortwave conditions
were above average for the last time on 10-12 September, including a
positive phase of the disturbance on the latter day. Around the
equinox we usually expect improvement, but now it was the opposite
as a result of disturbances.

"As another very good source of information, I can particularly
recommend the Space Weather Monitor (https://www.ionosonde.iap-kborn.de/actuellz.htm[2]), as it also
contains the most important data on the Earth's ionosphere."

From reader David Moore, on Parker Solar Probe:

https://bit.ly/3ELWC5E[3]

More Parker Solar Probe news:

https://bit.ly/3EOVEpl[4]

A new video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/pU6i_2FVR2g[5]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[6]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[7]

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[9] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10] .

Sunspot numbers for September 14 through 20, 2023 were 110, 96, 88,
94, 139, 143, and 159, with a mean of 118.4.ÿ 10.7 cm flux was
145.2, 139.1, 140.4, 144.6, 154.5, 166.1, and 155.5, with a mean of
149.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 18, 7, 7, 16, 30, 49, and
16, with a mean of 20.4. Middle latitude A index was 13, 7, 5, 14,
21, 38, and 15, with a mean of 18.1.

ÿ


[1] https://solarham.net/
[2] https://www.ionosonde.iap-kborn.de/actuellz.htm
[3] https://bit.ly/3ELWC5E
[4] https://bit.ly/3EOVEpl
[5] https://youtu.be/pU6i_2FVR2g
[6] k7ra@arrl.net
[7] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[9] http://k9la.us/
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

09/29/2023

Solar activity was up for this reporting week, September 21-27.
Eight new sunspot groups appeared, two on September 21, two more on
September 22, two more on September 25, another on September 26 and
another on September 27.

The average daily sunspot number jumped from 118.4 to 170.6, while
average daily solar flux went from 149.3 to 168.8.

The Autumnal Equinox was last weekend in the Northern Hemisphere, so
our Earth is bathed in equal amounts of solar radiation in both
hemispheres.

The average daily planetary A index went from 20.4 to 17, while
middle latitude numbers changed from 18.1 to 13.7. Thursday had the
strongest geomagnetic activity, and Alaska's college A index was 68,
triggering a geomagnetic storm with aurora visible across the
northern tier of the United States. Activity peaked around 1200-1800
UTC, with planetary K index at 5.33.

Regarding solar flux predictions, the next predicted peak is at 168
on October 20-23.

Predicted flux values are 148 on September 29-30, then 145, 143 and
145 on October 1-3, 148 on October 4-5, 155 on October 6, 160 on
October 7-8, 155 on October 9, 150 on October 10-11, 145 on October
12-14, then 150, 155, 155, 160 and 165 on October 15-19, 168 on
October 20-23, then 164, 160, 160, 168 and 150 on October 24-28,
then 145 and 150 on October 29-30, 155 onÿ October 31 through
November 2, 160 on November 3-4, and 155 on November 5.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 12, and 8 on September 29 through
October 1, then 8, 15, 12, 8 and 15, on October 2-5, then 5 on
October 6-21, then 10 and 8 on October 22-23, and 5 on October 24
through November 7, and 55 on November 8.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - September 27, 2023 from OK1HH:
ÿ
"During September we saw nearly regular fluctuations in solar and
geomagnetic activity. M-class flares occurred nearly every day, some accompanied by plasma eruptions (CMEs). On 24-25 September, the
fourth and strongest solar-origin proton cloud (G3) of the month
struck Earth.

"With such a large number of disturbances, each lasting several
days, there was a significant decrease in MUF and a general
deterioration of shortwave propagation (September 3-5, 13-15, 18-20
and since 25 September).

"After these disturbances, due to the high solar activity,
relatively rapid improvements followed, the best of which was
observed from 10 September onward. It culminated in a positive phase
of disturbance during the daytime hours of UTC on 12 September, with
the highest MUF values, and thus the best opening of the upper
shortwave bands. This also made the following deterioration, which
started already on the night of 13 September, even more noticeable.

"Given the number and duration of disturbances and despite several improvements, overall propagation was below average. This pattern
began in August and given the trend in solar activity, looks set to
continue for the time being."

Gregory Andracke, W2BEE sent these two articles about Aurora
Borealis:

https://nbcnews.to/3PUVH9q[1]

https://bbc.in/3PQLhrj[2]

Check out his web site:

http://www.andracke.com/[3]

Here are more articles and videos about aurora:

https://bit.ly/3PEnsl4[4]

https://bit.ly/3PU22Sy[5]

https://bit.ly/48ASMtK[6]

https://bit.ly/46w7CzQ[7]

https://bit.ly/3PXAGuX[8]

https://bit.ly/48A6Kfk[9]

https://bit.ly/3PBgE7V[10]

https://bit.ly/3PzOJFw[11]

https://bit.ly/469xDFw[12]

https://bit.ly/3rvgRBA[13]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[14]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[15] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[16] .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[17]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[18] .

Sunspot numbers for September 21 through 27, 2023 were 159, 184,
198, 172, 164, 179, and 138, with a mean of 170.6. 10.7 cm flux was
168.1, 175.7, 173, 173.7, 170.2, 164.9, and 156, with a mean of
168.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 8, 10, 21, 23, 32, and
15, with a mean of 17. Middle latitude A index was 10, 7, 9, 17, 15,
26, and 12, with a mean of 13.7.

ÿ


[1] https://nbcnews.to/3PUVH9q
[2] https://bbc.in/3PQLhrj
[3] http://www.andracke.com/
[4] https://bit.ly/3PEnsl4
[5] https://bit.ly/3PU22Sy
[6] https://bit.ly/48ASMtK
[7] https://bit.ly/46w7CzQ
[8] https://bit.ly/3PXAGuX
[9] https://bit.ly/48A6Kfk
[10] https://bit.ly/3PBgE7V
[11] https://bit.ly/3PzOJFw
[12] https://bit.ly/469xDFw
[13] https://bit.ly/3rvgRBA
[14] k7ra@arrl.net
[15] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[16] http://k9la.us/
[17] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[18] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

10/06/2023

At 2308 UTC on October 5, the Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning.

"A recent, mild CME impact, combined with the expected arrival of a coronal hole high speed wind stream on 7 Oct, gives the chance for G1 geomagnetic conditions over 6 and 7 Oct."

Seven new sunspot groups emerged over the past week, but overall solar activity declined.

With consecutive dates you can initiate an animation using the back and forward buttons on your browser.

We are currently enjoying improved HF propagation with the change of seasons after the autumnal equinox.ÿ This is particularly noticeable on 12 and 10 meters.

Here is an optimistic news story about the current solar cycle.

https://cdapress.com/news/2023/oct/02/were-strong-solar-cycle/[1]

https://bit.ly/3RMPjT1[2]

One new sunspot group appeared on September 30, three more on October 1, and one on each of the following days, October 2, 3 and 4.ÿ On October 5, two more sunspot groups appeared, and the daily sunspot number shot up to 179, the highest since September 26. Previously, a high of 219 was on July 12.

Average daily sunspot number declined from 170.6 to 128.6, while average daily solar flux went from 168.8 to 155.6.

Geomagnetic indicators were quieter.ÿ Average daily planetary A index went from 17 to 9.1, and average daily middle latitude A index declined from 13.7 to 8.9.

The outlook for the next month has predicted solar flux at 158 on October 6 and 7, 155, 152, 152, 150 and 145 on October 8 to 12, 158 on October 13 and 14, 156 on October 15 to 17, 154 on October 18 to 20, 152 on October 21, 154 on October 22 and 23, 156 and 158 on October 24 and 25, 160 on October 26 to 28, 162 on October 29 to 31, then 164 on November 1 to 3, 168 on November 4, 165 on November 5 and 6, 162 and 160 on November 7 and 8, 158 on November 9 and 10, and 156 on November 11 to 13.

Predicted planetary A index is 18, 25, 10 and 5 on October 6 to 9, 8 on October 10 and 11, 5 on October 12 to 21, then 10 and 8 on October 22 to 23, 5 on October 24 to 28, then 15, 12, 8, 15 and 8 on October 29 through November 2, and 5 on November 3 through the middle of the month.

Flares in the news:

https://bit.ly/46AiGMs[3]

https://bit.ly/3PG9MX3[4]

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere -- October 5, 2023 from Frantisek K. Janda, OK1HH.

"After witnessing a number of solar flares (though at most of moderate magnitude) during the past month, plus three solar plasma cloud impacts (CMEs), late September and early October, which were a bit quieter.

However, the development of solar and especially geomagnetic activity was so irregular that it was difficult to make predictions for the following days.
The geomagnetic calm on 28 September did not mean an improvement in shortwave propagation conditions, but rather a deterioration compared to the previous day, which was not calm.ÿ The improvement on 2 and 3 October was the result of a relative calm with non-declining solar activity.

Subsequent developments were mostly quieter.ÿ Nevertheless, there were significant fluctuations in MUF on 4 October with a slight deterioration.ÿ The explanation for the causes can be found mainly in the timing of the overall development.ÿ Specifically, deterioration often occurred after geomagnetic activity increased overnight.ÿ In addition, sporadic layer E activity increased at times (especially on 4-5 October).ÿ There was also a slight increase in the concentration of protons in the solar wind on 3 October and especially still on 5 October.

Irregular propagation conditions can be expected to continue, yet there should already be less of a difference between expectations and actual developments in October than there was in September."

W2BEE sent this about aurora: https://bit.ly/3ZHLUGU[5]

Time lapse animation of sunspot:

https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8ofnhg[6]

Max White M0VNG sent this, about the solar atmosphere:

https://bit.ly/3ZJydau[7]

Check these links for the upcoming HamSCI propagation tests during upcoming solar eclipses, the first on October 14, 2023:

https://www.hamsci.org/eclipse[8]

http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLX013/2023[9]

New report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/_eWJ8THt3pM[10]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[11] .ÿ When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at

http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive- propagation ÿ.ÿ More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[12]

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[13]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[14]

Sunspot numbers for September 28 through October 4, 2023 were 109, 102, 106, 136, 146, 150, and 151, with a mean of 128.6.ÿ 10.7 cm flux was 147.8, 155, 159.1, 161.1, 157.4, 153.7, and 155, with a mean of 155.6.ÿ Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 12, 10, 9, 9, 8, and 10, with a mean of 9.1.ÿ Middle latitude A index was 5, 13, 11, 9, 10, 6, and 8, with a mean of 8.9.


[1] https://cdapress.com/news/2023/oct/02/were-strong-solar-cycle/
[2] https://bit.ly/3RMPjT1
[3] https://bit.ly/46AiGMs
[4] https://bit.ly/3PG9MX3
[5] https://bit.ly/3ZHLUGU
[6] https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8ofnhg
[7] https://bit.ly/3ZJydau
[8] https://www.hamsci.org/eclipse
[9] http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLX013/2023
[10] https://youtu.be/_eWJ8THt3pM
[11] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[12] http://k9la.us/
[13] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[14] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

10/13/2023

The numbers looked better during this reporting week, October 5-11.

Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 128.6 to 144.1, and average
solar flux from 155.6 to 159.1.

Average daily planetary A index went from 9.1 to 7.6, and average
middle latitude A index from 8.9 to 8.3.

For some reason the middle latitude numbers were not available from Fredericksburg, Virginia so we used the data from Boulder, Colorado.

Nine new sunspot groups emerged this week, with two on October 5,
one on October 7, two on October 8, one on October 9, another on
October 10, and two more on October 11.

HF conditions have been excellent, as the season turns deeper into
Autumn in the Northern Hemisphere. I really notice a difference on
10, 12 and 15 meters.

Predicted solar flux is 156 on October 13, 155 on October 14-16, 152
on October 17-18, then 150, 148, 150 and 152 on October 19-22, 152
on October 23-24, 158 on October 25, 160 on October 26-28, 158 on
October 29-30, 156 on October 31 through November 1, then 155, 156,
156, 158 and 160 on November 2-6, 158 on November 7-8, then 156 on
November 9-10, then 155, 154, 152 and 150 on November 11-14, 148 on
November 15-16, then 150, 152, 154 and 154 on November 17-20.

Predicted planetary A index is 12, 10, 8, 5, 12, 10 and 8 on October
13-19, 5 on October 20-30, 15 and 12 on October 31 through November
1, 5 on November 2-5, then 10, 8, and 10 on November 6-8, 15 on
November 9-10, then 8 on November 11, and 5 on November 12 to the
end of the month.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere October 13-19, 2023, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

"Unlike most days in September, the Earth's geomagnetic activity has
finally dropped. Solar activity is high enough that there was a
significant improvement in shortwave propagation on a global scale.

"Around October 7, although there was still a possibility that Earth
would be hit by a CME that left the Sun on October 3, it did not
happen. Whereupon, especially on quiet days in the middle of this
week, the improvement was unmistakable.

"Two or three sunspot groups continue to be observed on the Sun.
They are able to produce up to moderate intensity flares. But the
area of the spots is not large, so we do not expect a CME based on
their magnetic configuration either.

"Thanks to helioseismology, we know of more extensive active regions
on the far side of the Sun. Therefore, it is safe to assume that
solar activity will be elevated for the rest of October. Which of
course brings with it possible increases in solar wind speeds with
higher particle concentrations, but this is not enough to predict a disturbance, only to vaguely state the possibility of one."

Dan, K7SS wrote:

"Just an FYI to those of us who may know anyone new to HF, and the
fact that 10m seems to be at a fantastic peak of conditions
recently, it would be a great shame for anyone who is new to HF to
miss this peak (or pre-peak?) with 10m so open during the daylight
and well into the evening darkness. Just recall the thrill of DX you
had early on.

"Would like to encourage everyone [in the club] to think about who
they might know that's pretty new and give a gentle prod to get them
on 10m. Even with a minimal antenna and power, the band is
supporting signals around the world right now. This may be our peak,
or perhaps this is a bellwether of things to come and may get even
better, but maybe not!

"If any tech licensee can get on 10m with even a minimal signal, it
will not disappoint. 28300 to 28500 kHz is theirs, and the
playground is full. And no place better to get the DX BUG than by
working some EU with low power and a small wire or vertical antenna.
NOW IS THE TIME.

"You don't want to have to explain in a year or two from now, that
they SHOULD have been on working DX and if not, may have to wait for
another cycle peak in 12-14 years.

"Personally, I'm having the time of my life with EU openings in the
morning around 10AM-12PM local. The THRILL IS BACK! 10m Lives."

An article about a 15,000 year history of extreme solar events:

https://bit.ly/3FctowT[1]

Commercial space companies approach their first solar maximum:

https://bit.ly/46Cx6Ma[2]

Korean records from the 14th to 19th centuries reveal sunspot cycle
history:

https://bit.ly/3ZUo2Af[3]

Safely watch the eclipse with a disco ball. (I do not know if this
is actually safe):

https://bit.ly/3tBhgmz[4]

Articles about the "Ring of Fire" solar eclipse:

https://wapo.st/3rNEHIY[5]

https://bit.ly/3FeOQSc[6]

An article about the Sun's polarity flip:

https://bit.ly/3LWZ7WF[7]

Video about Sunspot AR3038:

https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8oratl[8]

Optimistic outlook on Aurora:

https://bit.ly/46tIOcb[9]

Don't forget the eclipse event this Saturday, October 14:

www.hamsci.org/eclipse[10]

And at the last minute Thursday night, a new video from Dr. Tamitha
Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/iwp-M_i-TMw[11]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[12]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14] .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[15]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[16] .

Sunspot numbers for October 5 through 11, 2023 were 179, 138, 145,
149, 129, 120, and 149, with a mean of 144.1. 10.7 cm flux was
156.1, 155.3, 157.2, 157.1, 165.5, 164.4, and 158, with a mean of
159.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 16, 9, 5, 7, 8, 4, and 4,
with a mean of 7.6. Middle latitude A index was 17, 8, 4, 10, 9, 6,
and 4, with a mean of 8.3.

ÿ


[1] https://bit.ly/3FctowT
[2] https://bit.ly/46Cx6Ma
[3] https://bit.ly/3ZUo2Af
[4] https://bit.ly/3tBhgmz
[5] https://wapo.st/3rNEHIY
[6] https://bit.ly/3FeOQSc
[7] https://bit.ly/3LWZ7WF
[8] https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8oratl
[9] https://bit.ly/46tIOcb
[10] https://www.hamsci.org/eclipse
[11] https://youtu.be/iwp-M_i-TMw
[12] k7ra@arrl.net
[13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[14] http://k9la.us/
[15] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[16] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

10/20/2023

Sunspot activity dropped dramatically this week, with only two new
sunspot groups emerging, on October 14 and 16.

Compared to last week, the average daily sunspot number slipped from
144.1 to 89.4, and average daily solar flux from 159.1 to 145.1.

Average daily planetary A index changed from 7.6 to 6.4, and average
daily middle latitude A index from 8.3 to 5.

Predicted solar flux is 128 and 130 October 20-21, 132 on October
22-23, 134 on October 24-25, 136 on October 26, 145 on October
27-28, 150 on October 29 through November 5, 140 on November 6-9,
135 on November 10-11, 145 and 140 on November 12-13, 135 on
November 14-15, then 140 on November 16-18, 135 and 140 on November
19-20, 145 on November 21-24, and 150 through the end of the month.

Predicted planetary A index is 22, 14, 12, 10 and 8 on October
20-24, 5 on October 25-26, 8 on October 27-30, 10 and 12 on October
31 through November 1, 5 on November 2-8, 12 and 8 on November 9-10,
5 on November 11-12, 12 on November 13-14, then 10 and 8 on November
15-16, 5 on November 17-22, and 8 on November 23-26.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - October 19, 2023 from OK1HH:
ÿ
"In the last ten days, the number of sunspot groups has dropped from
ten to three. At the same time the solar flux has dropped
significantly - from 166 to 135. The last two slightly larger solar
flares were observed on 16 October. The larger of the two occurred
in AR3467. The magnetic filament associated with it exploded and
blew a CME into space.

"According to NASA's models, while it didn't head directly for
Earth, it still likely hit it on October 18 (the original estimate
was that it would happen a day later). Which, while not enough to
cause a geomagnetic storm, was enough to reach an 'unsettled' state.

"This was followed by an erratic MUF from 18 October and then a
decline on 19 October. These lines are written at a time when short
periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are not yet ruled out on 19
October, with a possible duration into the first half of 20 October
UT.

"A return of larger sunspots and a rise in solar flux towards 150
can be expected by the end of the month."

Regarding 10 meter comments by K7SS in last week's Propagation
Forecast bulletin, Angel Santana, WP3GW of Trujillo-Alto, Puerto
Rico responded, "I second Dan's, K7SS comments on getting on the air
even if you are a Tech on 10 meters.

"I can attest that the band is in good shape: Can contact European
stations with ease even if my antenna is pointing to the US and when
it is 2pm local can still contact them when they are at their local
8-10 pm.

"My score in contests recently reflect more QSOs on 10 meters and
now that we are in contest season it is a great opportunity to get
on the air and see how many countries you can work.

"You can also check and hear SSTV signals on 28.680 MHz as of late
confirming that the band is truly live. And of course, the FM
(29-29.8 MHz) segment."

Dr. Julio Medina, NP3CW wrote:

"Sending some information of activity in 6M band since May to
October 2023.

"Been copying stations from Japan, China, Africa, and many others
such as Philippines on FT8 early in the morning from 1200-1400 UTC
in FT8 in the 6m band."

Jon, N0JK wrote on October 6:

"The 6 meter sporadic-E - linking to TEP (trans equatorial
propagation) openings usually occur in the afternoon. But there was
a late evening Es -- TEP opening on October 6.

"Earlier in the afternoon October 6 I had some weak TEP from South
America to Kansas.ÿ It faded out around 0030 UTC. Then some
sporadic-E took place. Sporadic-E is rare in October, the only month
with less Es is March. That itself is noteworthy, and I logged
stations in Arizona and northern Mexico starting at 0100 UTC October
7 on 6 meter FT8. Then at 0133 UTC I began seeing a FT8 trace at
2,500 Hz. Then it decoded, and was Dale, CE2SV (FF47) sending a
report to W0SZ in Colorado. When they finished, I called CE2SV.
After a couple of calls Dale came back and we completed a contact at
0136 UTC. His signal varied from -10 dB to -17 dB.

"What is remarkable is I was operating from home using just an attic
dipole for an antenna. I also decoded CE3SOC and XQ3MCC. N0LL in
EM09 also worked some South American stations. This was 'evening'
TEP, which typically has a shorter range than afternoon TEP. The
evening TEP signals usually have a distinctive 'TEP flutter' sound
and sometimes don't decode with FT8.ÿ Q65 can be a better digital
mode for evening TEP.

"I saw on the ON4KST 6 meter chat page N9PGG in North Carolina
worked FK8HA and VK4 stations. This was a sporadic-E link (on the
same Es I had to the south) out to the South Pacific.

"On another note -- stations in Central America, the Caribbean and
northern South America have been making 6 meter Long Path contacts
with east Asia and Malaysia from 1200 - 1600 UTC the last couple of
mornings.

"6 meter long path is best with high solar flux and low geomagnetic
activity.

"2023-10-07 15:16 9Z4Y (FK90HM) 50.313.0 FT8 YB0MZI (OI33JQ) LoTW eQSL 18626 km ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ
"2023-10-07 15:00 9Z4Y (FK90HM) 50.313.0 FT8 YB0SAS (OI33JS) LoTW eQSL 18623 km ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ
"2023-10-07 14:54 9Z4Y (FK90HM) 50.313.0 FT8 YB0COU (OI33IU) LoTW eQSL 18611 km ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ
"2023-10-07 14:52 JA6GNL (PM53GO) 50.310.0 FT8 PJ4MM (FK52VE) LoTW 14545 km

"FT8 CQ AS:

"2023-10-07 14:38 PJ4MM (FK52VE) 50.313.0 FT8 4W/JH2EUV (PI21) LoTW 18502 km +12"

A video about predicting Solar Flares (Helioseismology):

https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8oxp24[1]

A video about a Class X2 flare:

https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8oxpu2[2]

A video about a Cannibal CME:

https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8oumkk[3]

A report about Solar Cycle history:

https://bit.ly/3FpTqwN[4]
ÿ
The latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/8xHnsvBFTgE[5]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[6]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8] .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[9]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10] .

Sunspot numbers for October 12 through 18, 2023 were 126, 91, 100,
92, 106, 57, and 54, with a mean of 89.4. 10.7 cm flux was 157.1,
149, 148.2, 144.6, 144, 137.3, and 135.3, with a mean of 145.1.
Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 13, 8, 4, 4, 3, and 9, with a
mean of 6.4. Middle latitude A index was 3, 11, 6, 2, 3, 2, and 8,
with a mean of 5.

ÿ


[1] https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8oxp24
[2] https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8oxpu2
[3] https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8oumkk
[4] https://bit.ly/3FpTqwN
[5] https://youtu.be/8xHnsvBFTgE
[6] k7ra@arrl.net
[7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[8] http://k9la.us/
[9] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

10/27/2023

The recent solar activity decline continues. Weekly average daily
sunspot numbers starting with Propagation Forecast bulletin ARLP039
on September 21 were 170.6, 128.6, 144.1, 89.4, and 41.9 for this
week.

Weekly average daily solar flux for the same period was 168.8,
155.6, 159.1, 145.1 and 123.5.

On October 25 Spaceweather.com[1] noted "Solar Cycle 25 roared to life
in 2021-23, dashing predictions of a weak solar cycle. Forecasters
have since been expecting a robust Solar Max in 2024 or 2025.
Suddenly, however, sunspot counts are dropping."

But they note that in strong sunspot cycles temporary lulls are
common, and strong activity should resume soon, with a cycle peak
within the next two years.

Forecasters provided a recent link to NOAA:

https://bit.ly/3FyVWko[2]

The next day they wrote, "NOAA has just issued a revised forecast
for Solar Cycle 25. Solar Max is coming quicker and stronger than
previously thought."

From NOAA:

https://www.weather.gov/news/102523-solar-cycle-25-update[3]

Three new sunspot groups appeared this week over October 20-22.

What is the outlook for the next month?

Predicted solar flux is 126 on October 27-28, 130 on October 29-30,
132 on October 31, 134 on November 1-2, 150 on November 3-5, 140 on
November 6-9, 135 on November 10-11, then 145, 140, 135 and 135 on
November 12-15, 140 on November 16-18, then 135 and 140 on November 19-20, and 145 on November 21-24, and 150 on November 25 through December 2.

Predicted planetary A index is 16, 8, 5, 20, 18 and 8 on October 27
through November 1,ÿ then 5 on November 2-8, then 12 and 8 on
November 9-10, 5 on November 11-12, 12 on November 13-14, 10 and 8
on November 15-16, 5 on November 17-22, then 8 on November 23-26,
and 10 and 12 on November 27-28, and 5 on November 29 through
December 5.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere from F.K. Janda, OK1HH on October 26, 2023.

"In the last seven days we observed two surprises. For the first
time, after the solar flare of 16 October, we saw a geomagnetic
disturbance on 19 October. But it started on October 18 and
continued to October 20.

"Solar activity gradually decreased, M-class flares ceased, and only
isolated C-class flares continued. By October 23 only two or three
small groups of spots remained on the solar disk.

"On October 21, the Earth's magnetic field activity briefly
increased, which, together with a multi-day decrease in solar
radiation, caused low MUF values and thus shorter intervals of upper
shortwave band openings.

"The geomagnetically quiet development on 22-25 October caused only
a gradual improvement in shortwave propagation conditions. In
addition, the daily MUF values were relatively very low.

"Then, on the 26th, the Earth's magnetic field activity increased.
Positive phase of disturbance started in the daytime UT, accompanied
by an increase in MUF (with a maximum around 1300 UT).

"I don't expect any significant rise in solar activity in October.
It is indeed forecast for November, but even the STEREO satellites,
in service for 10 years, have not yet observed more interesting
activity."

N0JK wrote:

"The weekend of Oct 20-22 had some outstanding propagation on 6
meters.

"Saturday afternoon October 21 there were Es links to TEP
(Trans-Equatorial Propagation) on toward the South Pacific from the
Midwest. N0LL copied FK8CP and ZL1RS on just a hamstick vertical
while driving from Salina to his home in Smith Center, Kansas. He
later worked E51WL from his home around 2130 UTC.

"I was staying at the La Quinta Inn in Scottsdale for the weekend.
Had my MFJ-9406 along and used a dipole antenna in the hotel room. I
copied N0LL in EM09, N0KQY in DM98 and N0OT in DM88 on 6 meter Es
calling DX stations around 1945 UTC. Es in October are rare, and Es
links rarer still.

"Later that evening I managed to work W5JAY in EM26 on 6m FT8 via Es
at 0136 UTC October 22. Power was 7 watts to the indoor dipole. East
coast stations were working the South Pacific on Es links to TEP.

"That next afternoon Arizona had Es - link to TEP to South America.
I copied XE1H in DL80 at the first Es hop.

"At 2333 UTC on October 22 on 50.313 Rx FT8 copied XE1H in DL80
calling CQ.

"October 24 at 2335 UTC copied PY5CC in GG54 via Es link to TEP.

"Spaceweather.com[4] noted a CME impact October 20. The active
geomagnetic field boosted the TEP MUF and may have sparked some of
the sporadic-E as well.

"73, Jon, N0JK in DM43 (usually EM28)."

From Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW in Easton, Pennsylvania.

"Two New Continents on 10 meters 29.600 FM.

"The upper end of the 10 meter band (29.600 FM) is still kind of
rough, but on Wednesday, October 18th, 1752 UTC I worked Naama, S01A (Sierra-Zero-One-Alpha) in Western Sahara, Africa, grid IL56hb, RS:
5x9+ peak both ways. Distance 3607 miles.
ÿ
"His QRZ page:ÿ https://www.qrz.com/db/S01A[5]

"Then on Monday, October 23rd, 2206 UTC worked Hirobumi, JF7AWV in
Kouriyama, Japan, grid PM95vq calling CQ, went back to his call and
he heard me RS: 5x5, he was a RS: 3x3 moderate QSB. Distance 6502
miles.
ÿ
"Just a reminder to operators, please use the ITU Phonetic Alphabet.
It makes picking out your callsign much more rapidly with less
confusion under weak propagation conditions.

"Equipment: Kenwood TS-690S, 80 watts, Cushcraft 10-Meter Ringo 5/8
wave vertical 10 feet off ground."

And I have a reminder to FM operators on 29.6 MHz.

This is the national simplex calling frequency and gets quite busy.
When making contact, I ask the other station to QSY to a simplex
frequency, such as 29.2 MHz. [K7RA]

Latest video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/vJ2yz7ZHSj8[6]

Note that this weekend is the SSB portion of the CQ World Wide DX
Contest.

See https://www.cqww.com/[7] .

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[8]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10] .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[11]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12] .

Sunspot numbers for October 19 through 25, 2023 were 39, 56, 65, 48,
25, 34, and 26, with a mean of 41.9. 10.7 cm flux was 128.7, 125.7,
122.6, 118.8, 122.1, 121.1, and 125.8, with a mean of 123.5.
Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 8, 22, 8, 3, 4, and 4, with a
mean of 8.4. Middle latitude A index was 8, 8, 13, 7, 2, 2, and 3,
with a mean of 6.1.

ÿ


[1] http://Spaceweather.com
[2] https://bit.ly/3FyVWko
[3] https://www.weather.gov/news/102523-solar-cycle-25-update
[4] http://Spaceweather.com
[5] https://www.qrz.com/db/S01A
[6] https://youtu.be/vJ2yz7ZHSj8
[7] https://www.cqww.com/
[8] k7ra@arrl.net
[9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[10] http://k9la.us/
[11] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

11/03/2023

"GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 2333 UTC on 02 NOVEMBER 2023 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

"A possible glancing impact from a CME first observed on 31-Oct
combined with a glancing impact from a CME first observed on 2-Nov
is expected to produce a chance of G1 geomagnetic activity on 4-Nov
and G0-G1 activity on 5-Nov."

Seven new sunspot groups emerged in this reporting week, October 26
through November 1. Two on October 26, one on October 27, another on
October 28, two more on October 31 and another on November 1. One
more appeared on November 2.

Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 41.9 to 76.7, while average
daily solar flux increased from 123.5 to 137.5.

Predicted solar flux is 158, 160, 162, 158 and 155 on November 3-7,
150 on November 8-9, 148, 136, and 134 on November 10-12, 130 on
November 13-15, then 125, 123, and 120 on November 16-18, then 125
on November 19-22, and 130 on November 23-26, then 132 on November
27, 134 on November 28-29, 136 on November 30 through December 2,
140 and 138 on December 3-4, 136 on December 5-6, then 138. 136 and
134 on December 7-9 and 130 on December 10-12.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 8, 12, 8 and 5 on November 3-7, 12
on November 8-9, 8 on November 10, 5 on November 11-13, then 8 and
10 on November 14-15, 5 on November 16-21, then 15, 10, 15, 15, 20,
15 and 8 on November 22-28, 5 on November 29 through December 5,
then 12 and 8 on December 6-7 and 5 on December 8-10.

"Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - November 03, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

"The coronal hole we saw in the northwest of the solar disk has
already fallen beyond its limb. Now we're looking at another fairly
large coronal hole in the southeast. At the same time, both sunspot
and flare activity decreased in the west and increased in the east. Fortunately, the solar wind from the eastern half of the disk rarely
reaches the Earth's neighborhood. Therefore, the frequency of
geomagnetic disturbances is lower.

"This is valid for most days in the first half of November. As the
solar activity could also increase, we can expect more stable and
overall, slightly better shortwave propagation. After that, however,
the solar flux will gradually return from 160 perhaps to somewhere
near 120. Therefore, MUF values will begin to slowly decline.

"As long as the coronal hole remains stable and persists in the
solar disk after passing through the central meridian, disturbances
will become more frequent. Therefore, shortwave propagation will
gradually deteriorate, but no reliable forecast can be made very far
ahead."

From Dave, N4KZ in Frankfort, Kentucky, EM78:

"At 1545 UTC on October 7, I experienced the thrill of a lifetime
when 3B9FR, Robert on Rodrigues Island in the Indian Ocean, answered
my CQ on 6-meter FT8. I had already worked 3B9FR 10 times over the
last 20 years on CW, SSB and FT8 on various HF bands but I never
anticipated working him on 6 meters.

"The morning began when I worked HC5VF at 1534 UTC with a very
strong signal. Hearing nothing else from the south, I turned my Yagi
toward Europe hoping perhaps someone there would decode my CQ. After
six unsuccessful CQs, Robert called me. I took a screenshot of our
QSO. I plan to have it framed for the shack wall. According to his
QRZ.com page, Robert runs 75 watts to a new 6-element quad on 6
meters. I was running 250 watts to a 3-element Yagi at 60 feet.

"On October 23, from 2059 to 2359 UTC, I worked 18 South Americans
on 6-meter FT8. Stations worked were in Argentina, Uruguay and
Brazil. Then the band changed around to the Pacific and for the
first time in some 30 years on 6 meters, I copied stations in
Australia. I decoded five stations in VK4, two in New Caledonia and
3D2AG in Fiji. Sadly, despite numerous calls, I did not work anyone
in the Pacific that day. But it was still a thrill to hear those
entities for the first time on 6 meters. And of course, the QSO into
the Indian Ocean, at a distance greater than 10,000 miles, made up
for it.

"I was very active on 2-meter SSB and CW from the mid-1970s until
about 2010 when I grew bored and took down my 2-meter Yagi. Earlier
this year, I felt the urge to return to the low end of 2 meters.
This time, FT8 seems to mostly have replaced SSB and CW for
weak-signal work. Since June 28, I have worked 30 states and 102
grid squares with my new 13-element Yagi.

"The big five-day tropo opening in August produced more than 160
QSOs from Colorado to Connecticut. In the middle of the afternoon
toward the end of that August opening, I decoded both ends of a QSO
between WQ0P in KS and W1VD in CT, I had worked both of them
earlier, but it was really something to watch them working over
about a 1,500 mile path."

From Bob, KB1DK:

"Conditions on 10 meters were fair for the CQWW SSB contest this
past weekend. While propagation was good from Connecticut to the
Middle East, south and central Europe, signals from Scandinavia, and north/central Russia were barely readable. This was in sharp
contrast to the conditions on the weekend of October 14th when I
worked 45 stations with strong signals in the Scandinavia Contest on
Saturday morning.

"On October 15th, I operated mobile for the first time. Using an old
Kenwood TS-570 and a quarter wave vertical magnetically mounted on
the roof, I logged 28 QSOs in 2 hours including South Africa,
Greece, South Russia and Scandinavia with respectable reports from a
fixed hilltop location. It was well worth the effort to wire up the
car. I did not want to miss out on the great propagation on 10
meters, especially after the conditions this past spring and last
fall.

"If you have an old rig, consider investing for a magnetic mount and
a 10 meter whip. You won't be disappointed. My next operating
location will be from the beach on Long Island Sound.

"All the best from the east coast."

K7SS reported to the Western Washington DX Club that he worked 10
meters only in the CQ World Wide SSB DX Contest, with 643 QSOs in 28
zones and 75 countries for a claimed score of 177,984 points.

Articles about an early peak of Solar Cycle 25:

https://bit.ly/3FF26jh[1]

https://bit.ly/40ndQQN[2]

https://bit.ly/45REtys[3]

Trailblazing female astronomers, one is Mrs. Annie Maunder:

https://bit.ly/478EfEo[4]

New video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/M4VBAuSpVZc[5]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[6]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8] .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[9]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10] .

Sunspot numbers for October 26 through November 1, 2023 were 57, 66,
70, 61, 62, 116, and 105, with a mean of 76.7. 10.7 cm flux was
126.4, 127.5, 128, 135.2, 139.7, 147.3, and 158.6, with a mean of
137.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 23, 11, 19, 28, 12, 9, and
9, with a mean of 15.9. Middle latitude A index was 18, 9, 13, 21,
10, 6, and 6, with a mean of 11.9.

ÿ


[1] https://bit.ly/3FF26jh
[2] https://bit.ly/40ndQQN
[3] https://bit.ly/45REtys
[4] https://bit.ly/478EfEo
[5] https://youtu.be/M4VBAuSpVZc
[6] k7ra@arrl.net
[7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[8] http://k9la.us/
[9] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

11/14/2023

"ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 2310 UTC/09 NOVEMBER 2023 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE:

"G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 11-12 Nov, with a
slight chance of G3 due to the anticipated arrival of a halo CME
first observed 09-Nov. Conditions are expected to ease to background
levels on 13-Nov."

A great, big geomagnetic storm on Sunday disrupted the second day of
ARRL CW Sweepstakes. Planetary A index for the day was 57, and the
highest 3-hour planetary K index readings were 6, 6, 7 and 6.33 from
1200-2100 UTC. This was triggered by a coronal mass ejection (CME).

This reporting week, ending November 8, saw six new emerging sunspot
groups, one on each day, except November 6.

Solar activity improved, with average daily sunspot number
increasing from 76.7 to 89.7. Average daily solar flux rose from
137.5 to 151.7.

Geomagnetic activity increased. Average daily planetary A index
changed from 15.9 to 22.3 and middle latitude A index rose from 11.9
to 14.6.

The most active days were Sunday and Monday when the planetary A
index was 57 and 40, respectively.

Predicted solar flux is 140 on November 10-11, then 145, 130 and 135
on November 12-14, 130 on November 15-16, 123 and 120 on November
17-18, 125 on November 19-22, 130 on November 23-26, then 132, 134
and 134 on November 27-29, 136 on November 30 through December 2,
then 140 and 138 on December 3-4, 136 on December 5-6, then 138, 136
and 134 on December 7-9, 130 on December 10-12, then 125, 123 and
120 on December 13-15, and 125 on December 16-19.

Predicted planetary A index is 10, 8, 8, 12 and 10 on November
10-14, then 5 on November 15-21, then 15, 10 and 15 on November
22-24, then 15, 20, 15 and 8 on November 25-28, then 5 on November
29 through December 5, then 12 and 8 on December 6-7, 5 on December
8-10, then 8, 10, and 8 on December 11-13, and 5 on December 14-18.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - November 9, 2023, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

"In agreement with the prediction, two CMEs probably hit the Earth
on 4 and 5 November in succession (at least the second one on 3
November, also in the northern hemisphere of the Sun, was a 'full
halo CME').

"A G1 class geomagnetic storm was expected for the arrival of both
CMEs. The expectation was gradually changed to G2, but in fact its
intensity reached G3 (since 5 November 1743 UT, by K = 7).

"A relatively recently described and still somewhat mysterious
phenomenon, referred to as 'STEVE' (Strong Thermal Emission Velocity Enhancement), was also observed.

"It looks like an aurora, but unlike the aurora, it can be detected
already in weaker storms (by K = 4 or more). They are caused by hot
(3000 deg C) jets of gas flowing through the Earth's magnetosphere
at speeds in excess of 6 km/s.

"For the shortwave propagation, the positive phase of the
disturbance development (with increase of MUF and overall
improvement) was observed not only on November 4, but even better
after a pause on November 5. This was followed by a massive
deterioration, especially on 6 November, continuing to some extent
on 7 November. Although the influx of fast solar wind with enhanced
proton content continued, an increase in MUF followed with relative
improvement in shortwave propagation conditions as early as 8-9
November."

On Friday, November 3, W0IY wrote:

"I was very pleased with great conditions to Europe and North Africa
Saturday October 28 at 1700 UTC on 10 meters SSB. Happily working
stations when I saw a spot for Vanuatu. Tuned to the freq and easily
worked him. Didn't change the beam.

"Sunday morning same conditions and there is a spot for Reunion
Island. 1 call.

"Neither sounded like long path. Both strong signals in Cedar
Rapids, Iowa.

"Just seems like odd propagation."

I ran some paths with W6ELprop software, and to Reunion from W0IY
the best time for 10 meters on this 10,000 mile path would be
1630-1800 UTC, with possible openings also from 1530-1900 UTC.

An article on recent aurora:

https://bit.ly/467cs6d[1]

A solar eruption resembling a "Canyon of Fire":

https://bit.ly/3sBIGZo[2]

Scientists discover new truth about the Sun's structure:

https://www.indy100.com/science-tech/the-sun-structure-new-discovery[3]

A new video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

https://youtu.be/nPrxI0KJmv4[4]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[5]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7] .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[8]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9] .

Sunspot numbers for November 2 through 8, 2023 were 113, 106, 95,
81, 67, 74, and 92, with a mean of 89.7. 10.7 cm flux was 158.4,
156.1, 155.3, 154.8, 146.2, 145.1, and 145.7, with a mean of 151.7.
Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 4, 14, 57, 40, 18, and 16,
with a mean of 22.3. Middle latitude A index was 4, 3, 12, 30, 27,
11, and 15, with a mean of 14.6.

ÿ


[1] https://bit.ly/467cs6d
[2] https://bit.ly/3sBIGZo
[3] https://www.indy100.com/science-tech/the-sun-structure-new-discovery
[4] https://youtu.be/nPrxI0KJmv4
[5] k7ra@arrl.net
[6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[7] http://k9la.us/
[8] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

11/17/2023

"ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 2306 UTC 16 NOVEMBER 2023 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

"Two recent CMEs associated with small solar filament eruptions are
expected to increase geomagnetic activity from mid 19-Nov to 20-Nov.

"INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM 19-20 NOVEMBER 2023."

Solar activity was lower this week, November 9-15, with average
daily sunspot numbers dropping from 89.7 to 80.1, and average daily
solar flux from 151.7 to 133.8.

If these numbers seem a little low lately, we should check the
bulletin from the same week last year.

In the November 18, 2022 bulletin average daily sunspot number
changed from 79.8 to 72.3, so a year later we are definitely still
trending higher.

Geomagnetic indicators were also lower, planetary A index changing
from 22.3 to 10.4, and middle latitude A index from 14.6 to 8.6.

A single new sunspot group appeared on November 10, another on
November 12, one more on November 13 and another on November 14.
ÿ
Predicted solar flux is 118 and 120 on November 17-18,ÿ 122 on
November 19-22, then 126, 135 and 135 on November 23-25, then 140,
148, and 152 November 26-28, 155 on November 29 through December 1,
then 152, 150, 148 and 145 on December 2-5, then 140 on December
6-8, then 145, 135, 130 and 125 on December 9-12, 120 on December
13-15, then 125, 128, 130 and 132 on December 16-19, 135 on December
20-22, 140 and 148 on December 23-24, and 152 on December 25-26.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5, 15, 26 and 10 on November
17-21, then 5, 10, 18, 20 and 12 on November 22-26, 8 on November
27-28, 5 on November 29 through December 3, then 10, 16, 12 and 10
on December 4-7, 5 on December 8-9, 8 on December 10-13, then 5 on
December 14-18, then 15, 12, 18, 20, and 12 no December 19-23, and 8
on December 24-25.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere November 17-23, 2023 from OK1HH:

"During the first half of November, solar activity continuously
decreased, which was not what we would have liked for shortwave
propagation.

"Even worse, there were relatively few geomagnetically quiet days -
only November 2, 3, 11 and 14.

"There were more days with higher geomagnetic activity: 4-8, 13 and
15 November. In addition, high levels of free electrons were present
in the ionosphere during relatively long periods (up to 4 November
and 7-12 November), which contributed to an increase in the
attenuation of passing electromagnetic waves.

"Shortwave propagation conditions in the second half of the month
should definitely be better as solar activity is expected to
increase. In addition, with the exception of the last days of
November (when we expect a disturbance), we expect the geomagnetic
field to be mostly quiet to only moderately active.

"If we try to account for the 27-day recurrence, geomagnetically
active days with fluctuations in propagation should occur after
November 21 again, but this is really only a guess given the current
nature of the trend."

Check this site for an update on current conditions on various
bands:

https://dr2w.de/dx-propagation/[1]
ÿ
From Dick Bingham, W7WKR, an article about Heliophysics and amateur
radio:

https://bit.ly/46jYf5O[2]

An article from NOAA about Sunspots/Solar Cycle:

https://bit.ly/47iUpv2[3]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[4]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[5] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[6] .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[7]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[8] .

Sunspot numbers for November 9 through 15, 2023 were 93, 93, 85, 78,
85, 86, and 41, with a mean of 80.1. 10.7 cm flux was 138.7, 143.9,
141.5, 137.2, 132.7, 123.8, and 118.9, with a mean of 133.8.
Estimated planetary A indices were 12, 10, 5, 12, 16, 6, and 12,
with a mean of 10.4. Middle latitude A index was 8, 7, 4, 10, 15, 5,
and 11, with a mean of 8.6.
ÿ


[1] https://dr2w.de/dx-propagation/
[2] https://bit.ly/46jYf5O
[3] https://bit.ly/47iUpv2
[4] k7ra@arrl.net
[5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[6] http://k9la.us/
[7] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[8] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

11/27/2023

Geomagnetic conditions were very quiet last weekend, good conditions
for the ARRL Phone Sweepstakes. But there was much more geomagnetic
activity toward the end of the reporting week, when the planetary A
index jumped to 30 and Alaska's College A index reached 60, a very
high value.

This past weekend was the CW portion of the CQ World Wide DX
Contest.

Solar activity really picked up in the past few days, with three new
sunspot groups on November 17, 18 and 19, then six new groups on
November 20, another on November 21, and three more groups on
Thanksgiving Day, November 23.

Sunspot numbers on Tuesday through Thursday, November 21-23 were
138, 174 and 176, and the total sunspot area on Thursday was 1560
millionths of the solar surface, the largest in a long time.

Average daily sunspot number rose from 80.1 to 83.3, while average
daily solar flux went from 133.8 to 146. Average daily planetary A
index went from 10.4 to 10.1, and middle latitude numbers from 8.6
to 7.3.

Predicted solar flux is 195 on November 24-28, then 190, 185, 155
and 152 on November 29 through December 2, then 150, 148 and 145 on
December 3-5, 140 on December 6-8, 145 on December 9-10, 140 on
December 11-17, 145 on December 18-23, 148 on December 24, 152 on
December 25-26, 155 on December 27-28, then 152, 150 and 148 on
December 29-31.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 and 10 on November 24-25, 15 on
November 26-27, 8 on November 28, 5 on November 29 through December
3, then 10, 16, 12 and 10 on December 4-7, 5 on December 8-11, then
10 and 8 on December 12-13, 5 on December 14-17, then 10, 15 and 12
on December 18-20, then 8, 8, 5, 8 and 8 on December 21-25, and 5 on
December 26-30.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere November 24-30, 2023, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

"After passing through a twenty-seven day low in mid-November, solar
activity began to increase. Slowly at first, then steeply in recent
days. What was common to the whole period was that the predictions
of further developments were not fulfilled. Shortwave propagation
conditions were, with a few exceptions, worse than expected.

"In the second half of last week, the Earth's magnetic field was
calm despite the eruption of a magnetic filament on the Sun on
November 16, which threw a CME almost directly toward the Earth. We
expected the CME to arrive on November 19. On the contrary, quiet
days followed on November 19-20. Then, despite seven new sunspot
groups and calm in the Earth's magnetosphere, propagation conditions
did not improve until November 20.

"Improvement occurred on 21 November, when the onset of the
geomagnetic disturbance was accompanied by two positive phases of
development with increases in MUF and an overall improvement in
conditions (at intervals of 10-13 UTC and 16-19 UTC).

"The following evolution could be expected - there was a
deterioration of propagation conditions in the negative phase of the disturbance development on 22 November. However, the deterioration
was short-lived, after which, thanks to the increasing solar
activity, an improvement occurred already on 23 November.

"Although solar activity continues to increase, there is a coronal
hole near the five active regions in the northeast quadrant of the
solar disk. This configuration will cause further increases in solar
wind speed and therefore more frequent alternation of better and
worse days."

In a message titled "6 Meter F2 November 22" Jon Jones, N0JK wrote:

"Despite a predicted CME impact over the weekend of November 18-19
missing the Earth, the geomagnetic field had minor storm conditions
November 22. The K index went to 5. This was enough of a nudge for
the F2 MUF to climb above 50 MHz to South America.

"I had several HC stations in around 1503z including HC2AO, HC2FG
and HC1MD/2. The opening lasted about 45 minutes then faded. Later
F2 appeared to the Caribbean area. I logged PJ4MM in FK52 at 1615z.

"Stations in the Minneapolis, MN area had an opening to Namibia with
V51WW working numerous W9 and W0 stations on 6 Meter FT8."
ÿ
In the current issue of the ARRL Letter there is an article about
two hams who are 100 miles apart in Florida who made contact via a
10 meter FM repeater in Switzerland.

The annual ARRL 160-Meter Contest will be this weekend, December
1-3:

https://www.arrl.org/160-meter[1]

Looking forward, the annual ARRL 10-Meter Contest will be on
December 9-10:

https://www.arrl.org/10-meter[2]

Two new video reports from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/DDh8-j1yOw0[3]

https://youtu.be/tZ7BZd6LKzU[4]

Two articles on a big sunspot group:

https://bit.ly/40TWATp[5]

https://bit.ly/47P9C7d[6]
ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ
Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[7]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[9] .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[10]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11] .

Sunspot numbers for November 16 through 22, 2023 were 28, 26, 39,
51, 127, 138, and 174, with a mean of 83.3. 10.7 cm flux was 117.9,
119.6, 127.1, 140.1, 156.5, 171.5, and 189.5, with a mean of 146.
Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 3, 3, 4, 5, 18, and 30, with a
mean of 10.1. Middle latitude A index was 7, 3, 2, 3, 4, 15, and 17,
with a mean of 7.3.

ÿ


[1] https://www.arrl.org/160-meter
[2] https://www.arrl.org/10-meter
[3] https://youtu.be/DDh8-j1yOw0
[4] https://youtu.be/tZ7BZd6LKzU
[5] https://bit.ly/40TWATp
[6] https://bit.ly/47P9C7d
[7] k7ra@arrl.net
[8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[9] http://k9la.us/
[10] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

12/01/2023

"GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 23/74 ISSUED AT 2321UT/29 NOVEMBER 2023 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

"Several CMEs are expected to impact Earth over 30 Nov and 01 Dec. Two CMEs were observed on 27 Nov that were expected to arrive on 30 Nov, followed shortly by a very mild glancing blow from a third.

"One or possibly two halo CMEs were observed on 29 Nov which are Earth directed.ÿ It is likely all or some of these CMEs will combine on their trajectory toward Earth, making it difficult to pinpoint an exact arrival time, however G3-G4 geomagnetic conditions are possible over this period."

Over the past reporting week, ten new sunspot groups appeared. Three on November 23, one each day on November 24 to 26, another on November 28 and three more on November 29.

Solar numbers increased, with average daily sunspot number rising dramatically from 83.3 to 165.9, doubling the previous week's number. Average daily solar flux rose from 146 to 181.5.

Geomagnetic numbers rose only slightly, with planetary A index changing from 10.1 to 11.6, and middle latitude numbers from 7.3 to 7.6.

Predicted solar flux is 166 and 162 on December 1 and 2, 158 on December 3 and 4, then 156, 152, 150 and 140 on December 5 to 8, 145 on December 9 and 10, 140 on December 11 to 16, 150 on December 17, then 160 on December 18 to 28, then 165, 160 and 150 on December 29 to 31, then 145 on January 1, 2024, 140 on January 2 to 4, and 145 on January 5 and 6.

Predicted planetary A index is 54, 22 and 10 on December 1 to 3, 16 on December 4 and 5, 12 and 8 on December 6 and 7, 5 on December 8 to 11, then 10 and 8 on December 12 and 13, 5 on December 14 to 17, then 15, 25, 8 and 5 on December 18 and 21, then 20, 10, 10, and 8 on December 22 to 25, and 5 on December 26 to 30, then 10, 16, 12 and 10 on December 31 through January 3, 2024, and 5 on January 4 to 7.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere December 1 to 7, 2023 from OK1HH.

"A week ago the CW portion of the CQ World Wide DX Contest was held. Prior to that there were several scenarios of possible developments during the weekend of November 25 and 26, 2023.ÿ In the end the less likely scenario was the one that developed.ÿ This was due to a relatively inconspicuous C-class solar flare observed on November 22.

"However, a detailed analysis of its evolution revealed that it was preceded by a pre-eruption, which was the first signal that a CME was likely to follow.

"Further observations from satellites and radio telescopes confirmed the CME and measured the speed of the particle cloud.ÿ Its rendezvous with Earth was expected on November 24, which would have been bad enough for the contest. However, the particle cloud hit the Earth a day later.ÿ Therefore shortwave propagation improved on November 25 (especially in the afternoon UTC, during the positive phase of the disturbance), whereupon an aggravation occurred on the following day.

"The maximum of solar cycle 25 is approaching.ÿ CMEs, originating from more energetic solar flares, or from solar plasma filament eruptions, are hitting Earth with increasing frequency.

"For example, at the time of this writing, another geomagnetic disturbance is expected as another CME from the eruption observed on November 28 is expected to hit Earth on December 1 and 2.

"In the meantime, we are observing a rather large coronal hole in the southeastern solar disk, which will deflate along its southwestern quadrant over the next week.

"In particular, we are observing active regions to the east of it. This neighbourhood will result in further intensification of the solar wind and variations in geomagnetic field activity over the next week.ÿ Its predictions do exist, but they will not be reliable."

I noticed that OK1HH has a packet radio address.ÿ His address is:

Pmail: OK1HH@OK0NAG.BOH.CZE.EU[1]

Cycle peak in 2024?ÿ https://bit.ly/3sXwrqi[2]

Cycle peak in the next few months?ÿ https://bit.ly/3N7KOPG[3]

Predicting cycle peaks.ÿ https://bit.ly/46EKxKU[4]

A new long video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/qiHtkXfZnQo[5]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[6] .ÿ When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

A archive of past propagation bulletins is at ÿ

http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7] . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8] Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[9]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10]

Sunspot numbers for November 23 through 29, 2023 were 176, 184, 179,169, 159, 130, and 164, with a mean of 83.3.ÿ 10.7 cm flux was 194.2, 178, 176.4, 180.2, 187.3, 183.5, and 170.6, with a mean of 146.ÿ Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 7, 38, 10, 7, 7, and 5, with a mean of 10.1.ÿ Middle latitude A index was 4, 5, 18, 9, 2, 6, and 9, with a mean of 7.3.


[1] mailto:OK1HH@OK0NAG.BOH.CZE.EU
[2] https://bit.ly/3sXwrqi
[3] https://bit.ly/3N7KOPG
[4] https://bit.ly/46EKxKU
[5] https://youtu.be/qiHtkXfZnQo
[6] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[8] http://k9la.us/
[9] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

12/11/2023

Six new sunspot groups emerged over this reporting week (November 30
to December 6).

Last week, using the previous week's Propagation Forecast bulletin
as a template, the averages were not updated, although all the
correct data was there.

So instead of average daily sunspot number of 83.3, it was actually
165.9, which this week dropped to 121.1.

Instead of average daily solar flux of 146, it was actually 181.5,
which this week declined to 146.5.

Instead of average daily planetary A index of 10.1, it was actually
11.6, which this week rose to 17.1. Instead of average middle
latitude A index of 7.3 it was 9, rising this week to 11.4.

Predicted solar flux is 135, 130, 130 and 135 on December 8-11, 137
on December 12-15, 140 and 150 on December 16-17, 160 on December
18-26, then 155, 150, 145, and 140 on December 27-30, then 136, 134
and 130 on December 31 through January 2, 2024, and 132 on January
3-5, then 130 and 135 on January 6-7, then 140 on January 8-12.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on December 8-9, 8 on December
10-11, 5 on December 12-17, then 15, 25, 8, 5, 20 and 10 on December
18-23, 5 on December 24-30, then 25, 10 and 8 on December 31 through
January 2, 2024, and 5 on January 3-6, then 10 and 8 on January 7-8,
and 5 on January 9-13.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere, December 8-14, 2023 from OK1HH:

"After passing through a twenty-seven day low in mid-November, solar
activity began to increase. Slowly at first, then steeply in recent
days. What was common to the whole period was that the predictions
of further developments were not fulfilled. Shortwave conditions
were, with a few exceptions, worse than expected.

"In the second half of last week, the Earth's magnetic field was
calm despite the eruption of a magnetic filament on the Sun on
November 16, which threw a CME almost directly toward the Earth. We
expected the CME to arrive on November 19. On the contrary, quiet
days followed on November 19-20.

"Then, despite seven new sunspot groups and calm in the Earth's
magnetosphere, propagation did not improve until November 20.

"Improvement occurred on 21 November, when the onset of the
geomagnetic disturbance was accompanied by two positive phases of
development with increases in MUF and an overall improvement in
conditions (at intervals of 1000-1300 UTC and 1600-1900 UTC).

"The following evolution could be expected - there was a
deterioration of conditions in the negative phase of the disturbance development on 22 November. However, the deterioration was
short-lived, after which, thanks to the increasing solar activity,
an improvement occurred already on 23 November.

"Although solar activity continues to increase, there is a coronal
hole near the five active regions in the northeast quadrant of the
solar disk. This configuration will cause further increases in solar
wind speed and therefore more frequent alternation of better and
worse days."

From "Universe Today" a story about a big, big solar storm in 1872:

https://bit.ly/3RgUWqL[1]

A story about a big coronal hole:

https://bit.ly/487quGd[2]

From "Science Alert" another article about a big hole on the Sun:

https://bit.ly/41adYDC[3]

From "EarthSky" a new region on the Sun:

https://bit.ly/3RxtCWG[4]

Don't forget, the ARRL 10 meter contest is THIS weekend!

https://www.arrl.org/10-meter[5]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[6]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8] .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[9]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10] .

Sunspot numbers for November 30 through December 6, 2023 were 138,
140, 92, 107, 113, 133, and 125, with a mean of 121.1. 10.7 cm flux
was 166.5, 162, 148.2, 139.2, 137.8, 141.6, and 129.9, with a mean
of 146.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 56, 14, 11, 9, 15,
and 10, with a mean of 14.1. Middle latitude A index was 4, 30, 11,
10, 9, 9, and 7, with a mean of 7.3.

ÿ


[1] https://bit.ly/3RgUWqL
[2] https://bit.ly/487quGd
[3] https://bit.ly/41adYDC
[4] https://bit.ly/3RxtCWG
[5] https://www.arrl.org/10-meter
[6] k7ra@arrl.net
[7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[8] http://k9la.us/
[9] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

12/15/2023

"GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 0132 UTC ON 15 DECEMBER 2023 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

"Two predominately westward CMEs were observed on 14-Dec and
component arrivals are expected on 17-Dec.

"INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR 17 DECEMBER 2023."

Spaceweather.com[1] issued this alert on Thursday:

"MAJOR X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: The Sun just unleashed the strongest
solar flare of Solar Cycle 25 (so far), an X2.8-class explosion from
unstable sunspot AR3514. The blast caused a deep shortwave radio
blackout over the Americas and may have hurled a fast CME toward
Earth."

Solar activity declined this week. Average daily sunspot numbers
dropped from 121.1 to 110.3, and average daily solar flux from 146.5
to 129.8.

With such low geomagnetic activity, conditions were good for last
weekend's ARRL 10 Meter Contest, although some wished for more
sunspots.

Six new sunspot groups appeared this week. The first two on December
8, another two on December 11 and 12, and two more on December 13.

Geomagnetic conditions were quieter, with planetary A index dropping
from 14.1 to 5.6, and middle latitude numbers from 7.3 to 4.6.

Predicted solar flux shows some expected improvement, with values
peaking at 160 on December 20-22, and 155 on January 23.

Predicted solar flux is 135 on December 15-16, then 145, 150 and 155
on December 17-19, 160 on December 20-22, but dropping back to 140
on December 23-24, 150 on December 25-26, then 155, 150 and 145 on
December 27-29, then 140 on December 30 through January 2, 2024, and
135 on January 3-5, then 130, 125, 120, 118, and 120 on January
6-10, 122 on January 11-12, then 124, 125, and 130 on January 13-15,
135 on January 16-18, 140 on January 19-20, and 150 on January
21-22.

Predicted planetary A index is 18 and 22 on December 15-16, 12 on
December 17-18, then 18, 8, 8, 20 and 10 on December 19-23, 5 on
December 24-29, 8 on December 30-31, then 10 and 8 on January 1-2,
2024, 5 on January 3-6, 12 on January 7-9, 8 and 5 on January 10-11,
12 on January 12-13, then 15, 25, 8, 5, 20 and 10 on January 14-19,
and 5 for at least the following few days.

"Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere December 15-21, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

"Solar activity has been gradually decreasing over the last seven
days, broadly in line with the forecast.

"Most of the flares came from the active region AR3514, which was
moving from the northeast to the northwest.

"Eventually, most of the sunspots were in the northwest of the solar
disk, and as they gradually set over the next few days, solar
activity should continue to decrease.

"While activity on the Sun's receding half does not appear to be
great, there is definitely a larger active region beyond the Sun's
northeastern limb. This observation is likely the basis for the
latest forecast from the U.S. Air Force, which predicts a rise in
solar flux initially to 160, and after a slight drop back above 150
around Christmas.

"Shortwave propagation conditions, which have suffered particularly
in the Earth's northern hemisphere from the decline in solar
activity, should improve.

"But developments may be more complicated. Just as a CME originating
from the solar flare of 11 December with a peak at 2243 UT arrived
at Earth before midnight UTC on 13 December, triggered a geomagnetic disturbance in the first hours UTC on 14 December and significantly
worsened propagation, we can expect something similar from the
stronger flare of 14 December with a peak at 0744 UTC. However,
subsequent geomagnetic disturbances should be no more intense than
G1."

Reader David Moore sent this article from "SpaceNews":

https://bit.ly/46ZKDNF[2]

On Wednesday morning Spaceweather.com announced:

"The best meteor shower of the year is expected to peak on December
13-14 with no Moon to spoil the show. Rural observers could see
hundreds of Geminid meteors and more than a few fireballs."

From Angel Santana, WP3GW in Trujillo Alto, Puerto Rico:

"The 10 meter contest in my view was pretty nice on average,
although did notice this:

"During 0000 UTC on Saturday got always South America for about 3
hours before the band closed. Then before 1200 UTC got to work
VR2XAN which was a surprise as my antenna was pointing to Europe (he
said he was beaming the South Pole) and it's been 10 years since I
worked Hong Kong for the first time.

"But then, could not work a few Europeans, and the band likely
closed to them by 1500 UTC, and the US was pretty strong.

"Then it closed at 2230 UTC, so SA predominated again. It repeated
for Sunday.

"Also noted that there was a lot of fading as some stations
disappeared for a few seconds to a minute. And the SFI dropped to
130 which could have been a factor.

"But for what I am happy is that I accumulated 600 points for the
VOTA event, and I delivered 35."

Did you know India has a solar observatory in space?ÿ Here is an
article from "The Times Of India":

https://bit.ly/3GGecsH[3]

From WBZ news, a story about a Massive Solar Flare:

https://bit.ly/4anifba[4]

Bil Paul, KD6JUI wrote:

"The solar flux wasn't optimal for the ARRL 10-meter contest last
weekend, but it was good enough. There was a lot of activity on the
voice part of the band.

"Operating from my kayak with 10 watts and a small homebrew loop, I
gathered 38 contest exchanges on Saturday and Sunday, around 3-1/2
hours of operating in total.

"On Saturday, South and Central America, and Caribbean stations were
coming in as well as the usual Canadian stations for
out-of-the-country exchanges. I managed to snap up one Brazilian
station for DX.

"On Sunday, I heard Australian stations coming in, but couldn't get
them to hear me. There were also more Brazilian stations plus a few
from Argentina.

"I was operating around noontime. QSB was evident."

Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, put out a new video this week:

https://youtu.be/64CTIrWBGTc[5]

A couple of interesting QRZ.com[6] pages to check out: KS7ROH for his astrophotography and other projects, and W6BSD for links to his
propagation pages.

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[7]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[9] .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[10]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11] .

Sunspot numbers for December 7 through 13, 2023 were 121, 125, 125,
120, 87, 80, and 114, with a mean of 110.3. 10.7 cm flux was 134.6,
132.6, 127.9, 126.6, 125.9, 126.2, and 134.8, with a mean of 129.8.
Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 5, 3, 4, 3, 10, and 8, with a
mean of 5.6. Middle latitude A index was 4, 4, 2, 4, 3, 8, and 7,
with a mean of 4.6.

ÿ


[1] http://Spaceweather.com
[2] https://bit.ly/46ZKDNF
[3] https://bit.ly/3GGecsH
[4] https://bit.ly/4anifba
[5] https://youtu.be/64CTIrWBGTc
[6] http://QRZ.com
[7] k7ra@arrl.net
[8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[9] http://k9la.us/
[10] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

12/22/2023

The Winter Solstice, the shortest day of the year in the Northern
Hemisphere occurred at 0327 UTC on December 22. It is the start of
summer in the Southern Hemisphere.

Solar activity increased over the last reporting week (December
14-20), with eleven new sunspot groups emerging.

One new sunspot group appeared on December 15, four more on the
following day, another on December 17, three more on December 18,
and two more in December 19-20.

Average daily sunspot number rose from 110.3 to 137.4, solar flux
from 129.8 to 162.7, planetary A index 5.6 to 18.4, and middle
latitude A index from 4.6 to 13.7.

The most active day was Sunday, December 17 when the planetary A
index was 36, and Alaska's college A index was 88.

The cause was what Spaceweather.com reported as the strongest flare
of the current solar cycle, an X2.8 class, and it caused a radio
blackout.

Here is a video of the brief flash:

https://bit.ly/3RP3xCw[1]

Spaceweather.com reported on Wednesday that another flare is coming
from sunspot group AR3529, and here is a movie they posted:

https://bit.ly/3tipAbr[2]

Predicted solar flux is 190, 188 and 186 on December 22-24, then
182, 180, 170 and 165 on December 25-28, 145 on December 29-30, 150
on December 31, then 145, 140 and 138 on January 1-3, 2024, then 136
on January 4-5, then 140, 145 and 148 on January 6-8, 145 on January
9-12, then 150, 147, 145, 140, and 138 on January 13-17, 136 on
January 18-19, then 140, 145 and 148 on January 20-22, then 145 on
January 23-26, then 150, 145, 140 and 138 on January 27-30.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 12 and 8 on December 22-24, 5 on
December 25-29, 8 on December 30-31, then 10 and 8 on January 1-2,
2024, 5 on January 3-7, 10 on January 8-9, 8 on January 10, 5 on
January 11-13, 15 on January 14, 12 on January 15-16, and 8 on
January 17-19, then 5 on January 20-25, and 8 on January 26-27.

Jon Jones, N0JK wrote, from Kansas:

"Some winter 6 meter Es December 18-19. N7BHC (EL15) and KD5CAF
(EL18) into EM28 for me on FT8 around 0100 UTC December 19. Earlier
stations in Colorado, Kansas, and Missouri had ZL7DX in on 6 meters
at 2200 UTC December 18."

Here is a new, long video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, from
earlier this week:

https://bit.ly/3GPRYET[3]

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - December 21, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

"Astronomical winter began in the Northern Hemisphere at the moment
of the Winter Solstice: December 22 at 0327 UTC. On this day is the
longest night and, of course, the shortest day. The total effect of
solar X-ray and ultraviolet radiation on the ionosphere of our
hemisphere was thus relatively the smallest of the entire year, and
the effects of changes in the solar wind were all the more
effective. This is also one of the reasons why, despite relatively
high solar activity, the shortwave propagation conditions are worse
than we would like and then we expected.

"Over the next six months, the length of the day will increase until
the Summer Solstice on June 20. Slowly at first, then faster,
fastest around the Spring Equinox on March 20. It is certain that
then the propagation conditions will be significantly better than
now. It is even possible that the maximum of the eleven-year cycle
will occur as early as next year, although it would be better for us
if it did not occur until 2025.

"Although we have not observed any particularly large sunspot groups
in recent weeks, there were always one or two active regions among
them, whose magnetic configuration allowed the development of a
medium-sized eruption, possibly even with a CME - after all we
observed several of these. The exception was the X2.8 class eruption
on December 14 at 1702 UTC, the strongest so far since the beginning
of the 25th solar cycle, or since the major disturbances in
September 2017.

"The eruption originated in AR3514, which was approaching the
western limb of the Sun. Even though it hurled a fast-moving CME
into space, it was relatively unlikely to cause strong geomagnetic
storms here on Earth. Eventually, the CME either missed Earth or hit
so weakly that it was not detected by satellite sensors.

"During the rise of the solar flux from 126 on December 12 to 195 on
December 20, with the corresponding increase in solar X-ray
radiation, shortwave propagation improved only slightly, actually
fluctuating, which was expected.

"The last geomagnetically quiet day was December 13, after which the
Earth's magnetic field was unsettled to active (more precisely:
active around last weekend). However, most days until the end of
this year should be geomagnetically quieter, while the solar flux
will remain elevated. Therefore, we can expect slightly better
propagation."

Here are a number of articles about a Big Flare:

https://bit.ly/3RQG4Rb[4]

https://bit.ly/3RRzBpe[5]

https://bit.ly/48tJtuH[6]

https://bit.ly/3TAeybV[7]

https://bit.ly/48pIpbo[8]

https://bit.ly/488c88X[9]

https://bit.ly/3tymsrK[10]

https://bit.ly/3RwJzLh[11]

https://bit.ly/3RThBuQ[12]

https://bit.ly/3RRzzh0[13]

An article about Radio Blackout:

https://bit.ly/3v5b5Il[14]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[15]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[16] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[17] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[18] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[19] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[20] .

Also, check this article about understanding solar indices:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[21]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[22] .

Sunspot numbers for December 14 through 20, 2023 were 126, 130, 163,
129, 137, 144, and 133, with a mean of 137.4. 10.7 cm flux was
155.1, 144.3, 149, 154.6, 161.4, 179.3, and 195.3, with a mean of
162.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 16, 12, 14, 36, 28, 12,
and 11, with a mean of 18.4. Middle latitude A index was 13, 8, 10,
32, 16, 10, and 7, with a mean of 13.7.

ÿ


[1] https://bit.ly/3RP3xCw
[2] https://bit.ly/3tipAbr
[3] https://bit.ly/3GPRYET
[4] https://bit.ly/3RQG4Rb
[5] https://bit.ly/3RRzBpe
[6] https://bit.ly/48tJtuH
[7] https://bit.ly/3TAeybV
[8] https://bit.ly/48pIpbo
[9] https://bit.ly/488c88X
[10] https://bit.ly/3tymsrK
[11] https://bit.ly/3RwJzLh
[12] https://bit.ly/3RThBuQ
[13] https://bit.ly/3RRzzh0
[14] https://bit.ly/3v5b5Il
[15] k7ra@arrl.net
[16] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[17]
[18] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[19] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[20] http://k9la.us/
[21] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[22] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

12/29/2023

The recent reporting week, December 21-27, saw counter-intuitive solar numbers, with solar flux rising but sunspot numbers in decline. This happens from time to time.

Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 137.4 to 114.4. Only three new sunspot groups emerged, two on December 22, and one on December 27. On Thursday, December 28 one more sunspot emerged and the sunspot number increased from 78 to 83.

Average daily solar flux rose from 162.7 to 172.6.

Predicted solar flux over the next month is 145 on December 29-30, 140 on December 31 to January 1, 2024, 135 on January 2-4, 150 on January 5-7, 155 on January 8-11, then 150, 155, 160, 170 and 175 on January 12-16, 180 on January 17-21, then 170, 165, 162, 155 and 145 on January 22-26, then 140 on January 27-30, and 150 on January 31 to February 3.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 10, 8, 16, and 8 on December 29 through January 2, 2024, then 5 on January 3-7, then 10, 10 and 8 onÿ January 8-10, then 5 on January 11-25, then 12, 10, 10 and 8 on January 26-29, and 5 on January 30 through February 3.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere, December 28, 2023 from F. K. Janda, OK1HH.

"There are active regions on the Sun that may not even be large, but whose magnetic configuration points to the possibility of solar flares, up to moderately important ones. CMEs are no exception, but they may not hit the Earth at all.

"On December 24, three moderate-importance flares were observed. At least one of them produced a CME. Based on measurements of its velocity, the collision with Earth was predicted to December 27. However, nothing happened, and despite the extension of the prediction of the onset of the disturbance by a day, calm continued on 28 December.

"For many days now there has been such a large active region on the Sun's far side that it is affecting the vibration of the entire Sun. In addition, it has been observed by NASA's Mars Perseverance rover camera. While it is primarily designed to see if there is dust in the air, it can see large sunspots and, most importantly, the sun's far side is now visible from Mars.

"So we await the return of AR 3514, which will rise in the northeastern solar disk shortly after the New Year. It will be a significant contributor to the further rise in solar activity in the days ahead. Furthermore, longer term forecasts are calling for high solar activity in the second half of January. So perhaps we will finally see an improvement in shortwave conditions."

Don't forget ARRL Straight Key Night is this weekend, for all of New Years Day (UTC), so that starts at 4:00 PM Sunday here on the Left Coast where I live. Operate CW in a casual event using your straight key or semi-automatic bug.

Recent activity: https://bit.ly/3vhqLIE[1]

Sun as revolving field motor: https://bit.ly/41CbEFA[2]

Aurora: https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8qwdc5[3]

2023 solar activity:

http://tinyurl.com/55x96tfd[4] ÿÿhttps://bit.ly/3RYngj1[5]

Cosmic spectacle: https://bit.ly/41C8kdR[6]

Larger storms: https://bit.ly/3RDl4fB[7]

Tamitha Skov's latest report: https://youtu.be/-xt-qMPQWwE[8]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[9] . When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[10] ÿand the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[11] . For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see

http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[12] ÿ

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at

http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13] . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14]

Also, check this: https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[15]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[16]

Sunspot numbers for December 21 through 27, 2023 were 138, 157, 123, 113, 98, 94, and 78, with a mean of 114.4. 10.7 cm flux was 193.6, 186.7, 174.2, 183.4, 166.7, 154.2, and 149.4, with a mean of 172.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 4, 7, 9, 4, 5, and 4, with a mean of 5.4. Middle latitude A index was 3, 3, 5, 7, 2, 4, and 4, with a mean of 4.


[1] https://bit.ly/3vhqLIE
[2] https://bit.ly/41CbEFA
[3] https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8qwdc5
[4] http://tinyurl.com/55x96tfd
[5] https://bit.ly/3RYngj1
[6] https://bit.ly/41C8kdR
[7] https://bit.ly/3RDl4fB
[8] https://youtu.be/-xt-qMPQWwE
[9] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[10] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[11] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[12] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[14] http://k9la.us/
[15] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[16] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

01/05/2024

Only four new sunspot groups emerged over the past week, one on
December 28, another on December 31, and two more on January 2 and
3.

Solar indices sank. The average daily sunspot number declined from
114.4 to 63.4, and average daily solar flux from 172.6 to 141.9.

Average daily planetary A index rose from 8.4 to 6.7 and middle
latitude numbers from 4 to 5.1.

Predicted solar flux over the next few weeks is 130 on January 5-7,
135 on January 8-10, 140 on January 11, 155 on January 12-14, then
160, 165, 160 and 155 on January 15-18, 150 on January 19-21, then
145 and 140 on January 22-23, and 135 on January 24-26, 130 and 145
on January 27-28, 140 on January 29-30, 145 on January 31 through
February 1, 150 on February 2-4, 155 on February 5-6, 160 on
February 7, and 155 on February 8-10.

This is from the Thursday forecast, which looks substantially weaker
than the Wednesday outlook in Thursday's ARRL Letter.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 5, 8, 10 and 8 on January 5-9,
then 5 on January 10-26, then 8, 15 and 12 on January 27-29, 8 on
January 30-31, 5 on February 1-3, then 10, 10 and 8 on February 4-6,
and 5 on February 7-18.

Solar activity looks soft of late, but perhaps we will see a double
peak in this cycle.

But look at this illustration comparing progress in the current
cycle against the last cycle, month by month since each minimum:

https://bit.ly/4aMBefh[1]

Page down to the second chart, labeled "Solar Cycle Comparison."

There is some confusion because of the similarity in colors.

The red line is the last cycle, probably smoothed by monthly
averages.ÿ The blue green line inside it is probably a conventional
moving average with points on the line smoothed over a year.

The yellow line is the current cycle, also probably smoothed over a
year, and the light blue green line is the current cycle, probably
smoothed with monthly numbers.

This looks promising for more activity to come.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere, January 4, 2024, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

"The first celebrations of the end of the calendar year in Western
civilization are associated with the person of the canonized Pope
Silvester I, who died on the last day of the year 335. However, no
one expected that December 31, 2023, would be celebrated with
fireworks all the way on the Sun.

"Helioseismological observations focused on a large active region
approaching the northeastern limb of the solar disk from the far
side, and large spots on the far side of the Sun were seen by the
camera of the Perseverance rover on Mars. But no one actually
expected a proton solar flare, the largest in the current
eleven-year cycle.

"The X5.0 eruption in X-ray band 1 to 8 Angstrom occurred at 2155
UTC in NOAA/SWPC 3536 and was the largest observed eruption since
the X8.2 eruption on September 10, 2017. In the same sunspot group
(in the previous solar rotation), an X2.8 eruption was observed on
December 14, 2023, whereby this was the strongest since the
beginning of Solar Cycle 25 up to that point.

"In particular, however, it also contributed to expectations of a
further increase in activity in the next year or two.

"Four days later, AR3536 is no longer as large as it was on the
Sun's far side and about half the size it was in December as AR3514,
but it is still capable of producing moderate solar flares.ÿ Now AR
3536 is approaching the central meridian from where a possible CME
(within the next week) could already be hitting Earth.ÿ At the same
time, we expect a further increase in solar radiation , which could
improve propagation conditions in the DX bands. But of course, also
worsen if a possible magstorm lasts longer or even starts at night."

I was on a video session on Sunday with Dr. Tamitha Skov and her
Patreon subscribers. She was displaying the Sun in real time when
the big flare happened. It was quite dramatic.

She was also using a setting on Pskreporter.info[2] that I had never
tried before. The settings are, "On All Bands, show Signals,
sent/rcvd by Anyone, using All Modes, over the last" (pick a time).

In real time we could immediately see the effects the flare had on
propagation. It was fascinating. I use this regularly now to check
worldwide propagation on all HF bands.

I asked her if her husband was an astrophysicist, and she said,
"No." She yelled, "Hey Kent! Come in here."

Kent is an actor, an acting coach, a producer, and a writer. I asked
how they met, which was hilarious. You won't read it here, but you
can email me if you want more details.

Scott Craig, WA4TTK years ago built some Windows software that sucks
up solar data from this bulletin and displays it in a nice format on
his Solar Data Plotting Utility. To update it, you just create a
plain .txt file of this bulletin and point the program to the file.

You can download it from http://www.craigcentral.com/sol.asp[3] and
also on the same page is an updated data file good through 1/3/2024.

The latest video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/WN4iqCq4LAU[4]

An article about a powerful solar storm:

https://bit.ly/3RO0Ek5[5]

Two articles about a solar storm that will hit hard:

https://bit.ly/3vqMhL9[6]

https://bit.ly/41L5SBI[7]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[8]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[9] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[10] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[11] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[12] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[13] .

Also, check this article:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[14]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[15] .

Sunspot numbers for December 28, 2023, through January 3, 2024, were
83, 92, 48, 55, 44, 59, and 63, with a mean of 63.4. 10.7 cm flux
was 146.7, 142.9, 139.7, 146.2, 135.7, 142.1, and 140.2, with a mean
of 141.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 6, 5, 4, 10, 8, and
11, with a mean of 6.7. Middle latitude A index was 2, 6, 4, 2, 6,
8, and 8, with a mean of 5.1.

ÿ


[1] https://bit.ly/4aMBefh
[2] http://Pskreporter.info
[3] http://www.craigcentral.com/sol.asp
[4] https://youtu.be/WN4iqCq4LAU
[5] https://bit.ly/3RO0Ek5
[6] https://bit.ly/3vqMhL9
[7] https://bit.ly/41L5SBI
[8] k7ra@arrl.net
[9] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[10] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[11] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[13] http://k9la.us/
[14] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[15] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

01/12/2024

Eight new sunspot groups emerged over this reporting week, January
4-10.

Four new sunspot groups appeared on January 5, another two on
January 7 and two more on January 9.

Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 63.4 to 146.1, and average
daily solar flux went from 141.9 to 163.3.

Geomagnetic indicators declined, with planetary A index going from
6.7 to 4.9, and middle latitude numbers from 5.1 to 4.3.

Predicted solar flux over the near term is 192, 190 and 186 on
January 12-14, 188 on January 15-16, then 186 and 184 on January
17-18, 150 on January 19-21, then 145 and 140 on January 22-23, 135
on January 24-26, then 130 and 135 on January 27-28, 140 on January
29-31, then 150, 160, 165 and 150 on February 1-4, 155 on February
5-6, 160 on February 7, then 155 on February 8-10, then 160, 165,
160 and 155 on February 11-14, and 150 on February 15-17.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on January 12, 8 on January 13-14,
5, 5, 10 and 8 on January 15-18, 5 on January 19-27, 8 on January
28-30, 5 on January 31 through February 3, then 10, 10 and 8 on
February 4-6, and 5 on February 7-22.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - January 11, 2024 from OK1HH:

"Since the beginning of the 25th Solar Cycle (December 2019), we
observed 782 sunspot groups, and almost half of them (361) last
year. Most forecasters believe that the solar maximum will occur in
2024.

"The exception is the Bureau of Meteorology Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre, whose 'OBSERVED AND PREDICTED SOLAR INDICES' table, published on January 4, already showed the probable highest SMOOTHED SUNSPOT NUMBER = 126.4 last November.

"It should fall further until R = 15.5 in December 2029. But I
believe solar activity will continue to rise and that we have a
second maximum ahead of us, no later than 2025.

"Now there is usually at least one active region on the Sun with an
unstable magnetic field 'beta-gamma,' capable of producing flares of
moderate magnitude, possibly with CMEs.

"Any large flares would be the exception, and proton flares would be
even more of an exception.

"Among the more significant moderate-magnitude eruptions accompanied
by CMEs is the M3.8/2n class event of 4 January at 0155 UTC, which
produced the Dellinger event (SWF or Shortwave Fadeout) over
Australia and the surrounding Pacific Ocean. There was silence at
frequencies below 20 MHz for more than 30 minutes. This flare took
place in the northeastern solar disk (N04E39), while the CME missed
the Earth.

"Other developments on the Sun were quieter, which contributed to a
relatively long interval of geomagnetic quiet since 4 January
onwards. At the same time, the intensity of solar radiation
increased. The result was progressively improving shortwave
propagation. But seven major active regions can now be counted on
the Sun's far side. Once they emerge onto the solar disk the
situation will change."

NASA's SDO reveals hidden solar storm threat to Earth:

https://bit.ly/3vxMJXU[1]

Interesting application for use with Mobile Radio:

https://www.ve2dbe.com/[2]
ÿÿÿÿ
Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[3]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[4] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8] .

Also, check this page:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[9]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10] .

Sunspot numbers for January 4 through 10 2024 were 64, 121, 149,
171, 152, 183, and 183, with a mean of 146.1. 10.7 cm flux was
125.8, 152.7, 159.4, 167.1, 176.2, 175.9, and 186, with a mean of
163.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 5, 3, 3, 4, 6, and 7,
with a mean of 4.9. Middle latitude A index was 5, 4, 2, 3, 4, 5,
and 7, with a mean of 4.3.

ÿ


[1] https://bit.ly/3vxMJXU
[2] https://www.ve2dbe.com/
[3] k7ra@arrl.net
[4] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[8] http://k9la.us/
[9] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

01/19/2024

Solar activity increased substantially over the past week, with
twelve new sunspot groups. One appeared on January 11, five more on
January 12, another on January 13, two more on January 15, and three
more on January 16.

Two more sunspot groups emerged on January 18.

Average daily sunspot number rose from 146.1 to 167.3, and solar
flux from 163.3 to 184.1.

Geomagnetic numbers remained low and practically unchanged, with
planetary A index moving from 4.9 to 5, and middle latitude A index
shifting from 4.3 to 3.9.

Predicted solar flux is 162, 160 and 155 on January 19-21, then 150
on January 22-23, 152 on January 24-25, 167 on January 26, 170 on
January 27-29, then 175 and 180 on January 30-31, 185 on February
1-4, then 187 and 185 on February 5-6, 170 on February 7-8, 175 on
February 9-10, 190 on February 11-12, then 185, 175, 170 and 165 on
February 13-16, then 162 on February 17-18, then 160, 160, 165 and
167 on February 19-22, and 170 on February 23-25.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 1, and 10 on January 19-21, then 5
on January 22-27, 8 on January 28-30, 5 on January 31 through
February 11, 8 on February 12-14, and 5 on February 15-23, then 12
on February 24-25.

In an email report on January 14, Jon Jones, N0JK wrote, "Today
there are thirteen sunspot groups on the Earthside of the Sun - the
greatest number so far in Solar Cycle 25. Despite the surfeit of
sunspots, the Sun has been quiet all weekend. Could it be the calm
before the storm? One of the sunspots (AR3541) has a delta-class
magnetic field that poses a threat for X-class solar flares."

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - January 18, 2024 from OK1HH:

"We've had two weeks of mostly quiet conditions, with relatively
high solar activity but only a few flares. And most importantly - no
CMEs hitting the Earth. In addition, 13 sunspot groups were observed
on the Sun on January 13 - the highest number in the current 11-year
cycle. Despite the glut of sunspots, the Sun remained quiet.

"Shortwave conditions were therefore more influenced by changes in
solar wind parameters. The exception was on 15 January, when
shortwave propagation was affected by a sporadic-E layer, which
occurred over Europe before noon UTC and over the USA later in the
afternoon UTC.

"Although solar flares were not massive, they were nevertheless
accompanied by CMEs on several occasions, but were directed away
from Earth. The biggest of these left the Sun on January 14 and was
headed toward Mercury and Venus (these planets can be seen in the
east before sunrise).

"We are now expecting solar flares of C-class at 0-2 per day, with
the rare possibility of a M-class flare. Coronal holes are mostly
small and do not occur near active regions, which also reduces the
likelihood of geomagnetic disturbances. Therefore, it appears that
the current relatively favorable trend will continue."

Bil Paul, KD6JUI in Northern California operates from a fresh water
kayak, and sent this report:

"I was out in the kayak yesterday, January 11, with 10w and a small
loop. With solar flux at 180+ I expected a lot happening on 10m but
that was not the case. Was disappointed. Did get a few contacts.
Heard Chile and Argentina coming in fairly strong (I had no luck
there) and heard very faintly an Israeli station. Best distance I
contacted was Bermuda, a VP9, on CW.

"Went down to 12m and had a few more contacts.

"Quite a bit of QSB on both bands."

Dave, N4KZ in Kentucky reported via email:

"For the second time in the past month I have decoded DX signals on
8 meters. Several countries have authorized their amateurs to
operate on 8 meters. The FT8 frequency is 40.680 MHz. On January 14,
2024, at 1540 UTC I saw a spot for 8 meter activity on the DX Summit
website. As soon as I moved to that frequency, I decoded several DX
signals from Europe and the Caribbean. But within a few minutes
signals faded out.

"About a month ago, I saw an Irish station work an American station
who has an experimental license for 8 meters. No other activity was
heard that time. I know of at least one American on 8 meters with an experimental license. He's in Georgia. I'm not sure if there are
others.

"I was using my 3-element 6-meter Yagi up 60 feet to listen. On the
two occasions I have decoded European stations, they had good
signals. Offhand, crossing the Atlantic on 40 MHz seems much easier
than at 50 MHz."

Tolvo, W8JTM of Liberty Lake, Washington sent this report:

"The 'Santa Claus Polar Path' described by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA
(link follows) is well and good! Not sure if it was winter F2
ionization or Aurora-E, but I had a nice SSB ragchew with OH6RM on
10 meters on 15 January when it was 11 PM Finland time (2100 UTC),
well after the MUF had dropped to not support 28 MHz.

"Signals were 20 dB over S9 with no flutter the whole time, and
after I signed off, I heard him work station-after-station all over
the USA for almost two hours with his signal only dropping to S9.
It was an incredibly solid path for 10 meters from Eastern
Washington, some 4500 miles.

"I also worked into Finland on 17 January on 15 meter phone, but
there was heavy slow flutter on the signals.

"As reported by Carl, these polar paths are surprisingly reliable in
Fall and Winter, and I always enjoy working into Finland where my
parents were from."

https://k9la.us/Sep14_The_Santa_Claus_Polar_Path.pdf[1]

From Scientific American, a story about the upcoming Solar Eclipse,
with sunspots this time:

https://bit.ly/3vESa7r[2]

An image of Sunspot AR3545 from Sky and Telescope magazine:

https://bit.ly/48BmDCb[3]

SciTechDaily article about the Solar peak:

https://bit.ly/4b4f60g[4]

An article about a gigantic solar hole:

https://bit.ly/3O5ful2[5]

Explanation of the Babcock Model:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Babcock_model[6]

From News Rebeat, the US/Korea to monitor solar storms:

https://bit.ly/3Snq5ui[7]

A "Travel and Leisure" article about the Northern Lights with regard
to a Solar max January to October 2024:

https://bit.ly/3RXNKQC[8]

Here is the latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/jo0Tg2W4fEE[9]
ÿÿÿÿ
Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[10]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[11] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[12] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14] .

Also, check this:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[15]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[16] .

Sunspot numbers for January 11 through 17 2024 were 151, 188, 191,
183, 150, 150, and 158, with a mean of 167.3. 10.7 cm flux was
192.5, 186.4, 185.4, 187.9, 182.5, 179.6, and 174.1, with a mean of
184.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 4, 3, 6, 6, 6, and 4,
with a mean of 5. Middle latitude A index was 4, 4, 3, 5, 4, 4, and
3, with a mean of 3.9.

ÿ


[1] https://k9la.us/Sep14_The_Santa_Claus_Polar_Path.pdf
[2] https://bit.ly/3vESa7r
[3] https://bit.ly/48BmDCb
[4] https://bit.ly/4b4f60g
[5] https://bit.ly/3O5ful2
[6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Babcock_model
[7] https://bit.ly/3Snq5ui
[8] https://bit.ly/3RXNKQC
[9] https://youtu.be/jo0Tg2W4fEE
[10] k7ra@arrl.net
[11] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[12] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[14] http://k9la.us/
[15] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[16] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

01/26/2024

Just four new sunspot groups emerged this reporting week, January
18-24, one on each day, January 18-21.

But it looks like we may see flares, CMEs and geomagnetic storms
over the next few days. Spaceweather.com[1] identified sunspot
group AR3561 as "hyperactive."

Sunspot numbers and solar flux declined, and geomagnetic indicators
rose, but only slightly.

Average daily sunspot number dropped from 167.3 to 130.6, and
average solar flux from 184.1 to 173.3.

Average planetary A index rose from 5 to 7.4, and middle latitude
numbers from 3.9 to 5.1.

Looking ahead, we may see a short term peak in solar flux centered
around February 11, and another about six weeks from now.

Predicted solar flux is 160 on January 26-27, 150 on January 28 to
February 1, 170 on February 2, 175 on February 3-4, 180 on February
5-8, then 190, 190 and 195 on February 9-11, then 190 and 185 on
February 12-13, 180 on February 14-15, then 175. 170, 175, 175, 170,
175, and 170 on February 16-22, then 165, 160, 165, 160 and 165 on
February 23-27, 170 on February 28-29, and 175 on March 1-2, then
180 on March 3-6.

Predicted planetary A index is 25, 30, 18, 10 and 8 on January
26-30, then 5 on January 31 through February 16, and 8 on February
17-18, then 5 on February 19-24, then 10, 12 and 10 on February
25-27, and 5 on February 28 through early March.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - January 25, 2024, from OK1HH:

"At the present stage of the 11-year solar cycle, there are five to
thirteen groups of spots (or active regions) on the Sun. In three of
them, we can observe such magnetic configuration that allows the
development of a larger flare, possibly with a CME.

"On the other hand, there are relatively few coronal holes on the
Sun, reducing the likelihood of Earth being hit by an enhanced solar
wind and then geomagnetic disturbances. Therefore, the evolution is
quieter, and the level of shortwave propagation is a little calmer
than we might otherwise expect."

Glenn Packard, K4ZOT reported from Atlanta, Georgia on January 22
that he worked New Zealand on 6 meter FT8 at 0257 UTC:

"I just happened to tune to 6M tonight after being disappointed on
6M for the Winter season.ÿ Then Bloom, ZL4TT, comes through at R-19
and me at -08.ÿ Just WOW.ÿ Called once and he came right back to me.
Band then went dead after the contact.ÿ Amateur Radio still has
surprised this Olde Man."

Solar Cycle 25 nearing its peak?

https://bit.ly/3Sv70GF[2]

Articles about recent Solar activity:

https://bit.ly/4b6n48Z[3]

https://bit.ly/3OiSL5r[4]

https://bit.ly/3Ohoy6L[5]

A NOAA article about Solar Cycle Progression:

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression[6]

The latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, for January 22:

https://youtu.be/41LGqYbxsvk[7]

Did you know she has about 84,500 subscribers?

New, long program from Dr. Skov for January 25:

https://youtu.be/wQ7VFh_D2Mw[8]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[9]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[10] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[11] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[12] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ [13].

Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[14]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[15] .

Sunspot numbers for January 18 through 24 2024 were 113, 137, 144,
150, 139, 123, and 108, with a mean of 130.6. 10.7 cm flux was
162.3, 157.4, 166.3, 178.5, 196.1, 180.3, and 172, with a mean of
173.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 8, 6, 6, 9, 7, and 10,
with a mean of 7.4. Middle latitude A index was 4, 5, 4, 5, 6, 5,
and 7, with a mean of 5.1.

ÿ


[1] https://Spaceweather.com
[2] https://bit.ly/3Sv70GF
[3] https://bit.ly/4b6n48Z
[4] https://bit.ly/3OiSL5r
[5] https://bit.ly/3Ohoy6L
[6] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
[7] https://youtu.be/41LGqYbxsvk
[8] https://youtu.be/wQ7VFh_D2Mw
[9] k7ra@arrl.net
[10] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[11] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[13] http://k9la.us/
[14] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[15] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

02/02/2024

"ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 0248 UTC/02 FEBRUARY 2024 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

"A CME was observed from 01/0800 UT. This CME is expected to pass
mostly above the Earth, however a glancing blow is possible either
late UT day 03-Feb or early UT day 04-Feb to cause possible G1-G2
geomagnetic storming. A coronal hole wind stream may also contribute
to enhanced geomagnetic activity.

"INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM 04-05 FEBRUARY 2024."

Seven new sunspot groups emerged this reporting week, but solar
activity was lower. One new spot appeared on January 26, two more on
January 28, three more on January 30 and one more on January 31.

Then on February 1 five new sunspot groups emerged, and the daily
sunspot number rose to 113, far above the average for the previous
seven days.

Average daily sunspot number dropped from 130.6 to 71.6, and average
daily solar flux declined from 173.3 to 145.4.

Average planetary A index changed from 7.4 to 6.9, while middle
latitude averages shifted from 5.1 to 5.6.

What is the outlook for the next month? Looks like a modest peak in
solar flux at 175 on February 20.

Predicted solar flux is 135 on February 2, 140 on February 3-5, 145
on February 6-8, then a jump to 165 on February 9-11, 170 on
February 12, 165 on February 13-15, 170 on February 16-19, 175 on
February 20, then 170, 165, 160, 150, 140, 135 and 140 on February
21-27, 145 on February 28-29, and 150 on March 1-2, then 155 on
March 3-4, 160 on March 5, and 165 on March 6-9.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on February 2-3, then 14, 20 and 8
on February 4-6, then 5 on February 7-16, 8 on February 17-18, 5 on
February 19-24, then 10, 12 and 10 on February 25-27, and 5 on
February 28 through March 2, then 10 on March 3-4, and 5 on March 5
through the middle of the month.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - February 1, 2024, from OK1HH:

"A week ago, it appeared that more activity would come from the
large sunspot group AR3561, but it has been quiet. Then another
larger one, AR3559, surprised us when energetic protons began to
penetrate the Earth's atmosphere in the early hours of January 29
UTC.

"Such an event is called a 'radiation storm,' denoted by the letter
S, and this one was classified as S2. The letter R denotes the
effects of solar X-ray and ultraviolet radiation, which in this case
was caused by a fairly massive M6.8 class solar flare. The Dellinger
effect with a maximum at 0632 UTC affected frequencies up to 30 MHz
in the region of Western Australia and the adjacent Indian Ocean.
Protons with an energy of 100 MeV hit the Earth's atmosphere for
almost the entire day on 29 January, and protons with lower energies
continued to hit on the following days.

"Only isolated, weaker C-class flares were observed in the following
days. However, the Earth was not affected by the CME; its magnetic
field remained calm to slightly unsettled, and so shortwave
propagation conditions were generally between average to slightly
above average.ÿ However, the increased solar radiation caused
regular daily openings of the upper shortwave bands, including the
10-meter band."

UC Berkeley article on Sunspots:

https://bit.ly/48ThdlY[1]

Two articles on a Solar Cycle peak this year:

https://bit.ly/48Yjcpa[2]

https://bit.ly/3u53ZDK[3]

Two articles about the Sun's poles reversing:

https://bit.ly/4bvvmro[4]

https://bit.ly/42kfljC[5]

Times Now article about Radio Blackout:

https://bit.ly/3HGWYfn[6]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[7]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[8] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[9] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[10] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[11] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ [12].

Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[13]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for January 25 through 31 2024 were 101, 97, 52, 75,
48, 53, and 75, with a mean of 71.8. 10.7 cm flux was 160.5, 156.7,
148.1, 141.1, 140.3, 135, and 136.2, with a mean of 145.4. Estimated
planetary A indices were 6, 6, 5, 8, 9, 8, and 6, with a mean of
6.9. Middle latitude A index was 4, 4, 4, 5, 7, 8, and 7, with a
mean of 5.6.

ÿ


[1] https://bit.ly/48ThdlY
[2] https://bit.ly/48Yjcpa
[3] https://bit.ly/3u53ZDK
[4] https://bit.ly/4bvvmro
[5] https://bit.ly/42kfljC
[6] https://bit.ly/3HGWYfn
[7] k7ra@arrl.net
[8] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[11] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[12] http://k9la.us/
[13] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

02/09/2024

Over the recent reporting week, February 1-7, ten new sunspot groups
emerged, five on February 1, one on February 2, another on February
3, two on February 5, and one more on February 7. On February 8, two
more emerged.

Sunspot numbers and solar flux rose, and geomagnetic numbers were
quiet.

Average daily sunspot number increased from 71.8 to 142.3, and
average daily solar flux from 145.4 to 165.5.

Geomagnetic conditions were quieter. Average daily planetary A index
decreased from 6.9 to 5.1, and average middle latitude numbers from
5.6 to 4.4.

Now let's see what the outlook might be over the next few weeks,
with data from the US Air Force and NOAA.

Predicted solar flux is 180 on February 9, then 175, 175, 180 and
175 on February 10-13, 178 on February 14-15, 170 on February 16,
160 on February 17-21, then 165 and 160 on February 22-23, 150 on
February 24-28, then 155, 160 and 165 on February 29 through March
2, 170 on March 3-5, 160 on March 6-9, 170 on March 10, 165 on March
11-13, 170 on March 14, and 160 on March 15-19.

Predicted planetary A index is 15, 12 and 8 on February 9-11, 5 on
February 12-25, then 8 and 7 on February 26-27, then 5 on February
28 through March 2, 10 on March 3-4, 5 on March 5-23.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - February 8, 2024 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

"As recently as early January, it appeared that the peak of the
current eleven-year cycle would soon be passed, or perhaps even
passed late last year. But January's upsurge in solar activity led
us astray, and February, it seems, could be even more lively.

"Surprise number two is that although we are seeing moderate flares
on the Sun, some of which are proton flares and a few of which are
accompanied by CMEs, the solar wind around the Earth is intensifying
little.

"Surprise number three, though related to the previous one, is the
decline in the Earth's magnetic field activity for more than a
month.

"Finally, surprise number four is that although solar activity is
relatively high, while geomagnetic activity is low, the shortwave
propagation conditions (as defined at frequencies of 3-30 MHz) are
not nearly as good as we have become accustomed to during decades of
similar developments.

"Even from the proton solar flare with CME ejection observed on
February 6, we expect the Earth to be hit by an enhanced solar wind
with a subsequent, at least slight, rise in geomagnetic field
activity. This should occur between evening hours of UTC 9 February,
and the following morning. So, the question is slowly emerging
whether it will be more of a surprise if the disturbance starts or
if it doesn't."

Reader David Moore sent this article about slow moving solar flares:

https://bit.ly/498uM16[1]

Articles about the consequences of a modern Carrington Event:

https://bit.ly/49vdPgW[2]

https://bit.ly/3wf09bS[3]

Two stories about Radio Blackout:

https://bit.ly/4bzFQpM[4]

https://bit.ly/3UztJTd[5]

Nice pictures of a Big Sunspot:

https://solarchatforum.com/viewtopic.php?t=43915[6]

https://bit.ly/3uvFJL5[7]

Our first Solar Maximum?

https://www.sidc.be/article/first-sc25-maximum[8]

The latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/dKZ-qeDbxkc[9]

Solar news articles:

https://bit.ly/3uqpnmV[10]

https://bit.ly/3SMk8Y1[11]

https://bit.ly/3SPqwxD[12]

https://bit.ly/4bw6j7y[13]

https://bit.ly/49Kyoq7[14]

https://bit.ly/42v9xns[15]

https://bit.ly/3SzUzrQ[16]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[17]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[18] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[19] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[20] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[21] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[22] .

Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[23]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[24] .

Sunspot numbers for February 1 through 7 2024 were 113, 131, 123,
138, 152, 175, and 164, with a mean of 142.3. 10.7 cm flux was
136.9, 142.6, 156.4, 170.4, 173.4, 190.3, and 188.4, with a mean of
165.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 3, 3, 6, 7, 8, and 4,
with a mean of 5.1. Middle latitude A index was 4, 3, 2, 5, 6, 8,
and 3, with a mean of 4.4.

ÿ


[1] https://bit.ly/498uM16
[2] https://bit.ly/49vdPgW
[3] https://bit.ly/3wf09bS
[4] https://bit.ly/4bzFQpM
[5] https://bit.ly/3UztJTd
[6] https://solarchatforum.com/viewtopic.php?t=43915
[7] https://bit.ly/3uvFJL5
[8] https://www.sidc.be/article/first-sc25-maximum
[9] https://youtu.be/dKZ-qeDbxkc
[10] https://bit.ly/3uqpnmV
[11] https://bit.ly/3SMk8Y1
[12] https://bit.ly/3SPqwxD
[13] https://bit.ly/4bw6j7y
[14] https://bit.ly/49Kyoq7
[15] https://bit.ly/42v9xns
[16] https://bit.ly/3SzUzrQ
[17] k7ra@arrl.net
[18] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[19] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[20] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[21] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[22] http://k9la.us/
[23] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[24] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

02/16/2024

Seven new sunspot groups appeared over the past week, February 8-14,
two on February 8, three on February 10, and two more on February 13
and 14.

Then on February 15 three more sunspots emerged.

Now this is a personal opinion, but from recent numbers I suspect
that we may at the peak of Solar Cycle 25 or just prior to the peak.
We won't know when the actual peak occurred until six months after.

Average daily sunspot number declined from 142.3 to 134.6, but
average daily solar flux increased from 165.5 to 190.

I don't know why the solar numbers were so seemingly out of whack,
but average daily sunspot number declined as average daily solar
flux rose, by a lot.

Average daily planetary A index rose from 5.1 to 7.4, while middle
latitude numbers from 4.4 to 6.1.

The most active day was February 11 with planetary A index rising to
15, but that is hardly stormy. This was caused by an unexpected CME
impact at 0211 UTC according to Spaceweather.com.

So, what is the outlook for the next few weeks?

Concerning solar flux, it seems we are currently in the midst of a
peak over the next few days at 185 and 182 on February 15-16, then
another short term peak at 170 on March 3-10.

On February 17-23 the forecast sees the flux at 175, 172, 170, 165,
175, 165 and 160, then 150 on February 24-28, then 155, 160 and 165
on February 29 through March 2, then 170 on March 3-10, 165 on March
11-3, 170 on March 14, 160 on March 15-19, then 162, 165 and 160 on
March 20-22.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on February 16-18, 8 on February
19, 5 on February 20-25, then 8 and 7 on February 26-27, then 5 on
February 28 through March 23.

This is the same data that appeared in the ARRL Letter on Thursday,
which was the report from February 14.

Unfortunately, NOAA did not post the updated forecast on Thursday.
Thursday evening, I phoned the NOAA forecast desk, and they didn't
have the data from US Air Force. I then phoned the 557 Weather Wing
at Offutt Air Force Base and was told they had a major network
outage Thursday afternoon, and the data may be lost.

Fortunately, the phone numbers at both locations are answered 24-7.

If you need an updated forecast, check:

https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/45-day-ap-forecast.txt[1]

It is normally updated every day after 2200 UTC.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - February 15, 2024 from OK1HH:

"Over the past week, we saw the transition of two large active
regions with complex magnetic configurations on the solar disk:
AR3575 followed by AR3576, which will be at the western limb of the
disk on February 16.

"More massive flares, including proton flares accompanied by CME
were observed in both regions. Protons from the flares bombarded the
Earth's atmosphere for most of the days. CMEs, however, hit the
Earth with little or no impact. This included a strong X3.4 class
solar flare followed by a S2 class radiation storm on 9th February.
Energetic solar protons impacted the upper layers of the Earth's
atmosphere and caused mainly polar cap absorption (PCA). This
significantly increased the attenuation of radio signals at high
latitudes.

"We could also guess whether the CMEs were just delayed since the
eruptions of 9 and 10 February and would not arrive until 13
February, or whether they would miss the Earth. NASA guessed that
they would arrive. But the correct answer was they missed, which was
confirmed by the more or less calm development on 14 February.

"After the sunset of the two large active regions AR3575 and AR3576,
solar activity will decrease. However, helioseismological
observations indicate the presence of active regions on the far side
of the Sun. After their ascent to the solar disk, solar activity
will increase again since early March. Solar activity should be
highest between March 3 and 10. Meanwhile, geomagnetic activity
should continue to be low. Therefore, we expect an improvement in
shortwave propagation conditions.

"F.K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH, http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/ "

This weekend is the CW portion of the ARRL International DX contest.
Details can be found at:

https://www.arrl.org/arrl-dx[2]

Two articles about a CME and flares:

https://bit.ly/3OHvtpZ[3]

https://bit.ly/49zgoia[4]

Three days of sunspots:

https://bit.ly/3SJhbGi[5]

Multiple pictures of Sunspot region 13585:

https://bit.ly/3UFVhGQ[6]

Bob, KB1DK, from Connecticut wrote:

"During the last two weeks, activity on 10 meter SSB was bustling,
and included many POTA, SOTA, and mobile stations in Europe. In
fact, I heard Europeans on 12 meters saying they moved to that band
because 10 became so busy. Propagation on 10 has been very good from
southern New England, resulting in multiple QSOs with India and New
Zealand. QSOs with the middle east are almost routine now.

"My occasional fixed mobile operating has been extremely productive
and satisfying. I strongly recommend taking advantage of these great
conditions on 10 meters while we have them."

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[7] . When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[8] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[9] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[10] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[11] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[12] .

Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[13]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[14] .

Sunspot numbers for February 8 through 14 2024 were 149, 105, 146,
144, 153, 122, and 123, with a mean of 134.6. 10.7 cm flux was 185,
183.4, 193.8, 180.4, 208.3, 194.8, and 184.1, with a mean of 190.
Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 6, 5, 15, 4, 10, and 7, with a
mean of 7.4. Middle latitude A index was 5, 4, 4, 12, 4, 8, and 6,
with a mean of 6.1.
ÿ


[1] https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/45-day-ap-forecast.txt
[2] https://www.arrl.org/arrl-dx
[3] https://bit.ly/3OHvtpZ
[4] https://bit.ly/49zgoia
[5] https://bit.ly/3SJhbGi
[6] https://bit.ly/3UFVhGQ
[7] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[8] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[11] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[12] http://k9la.us/
[13] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[14] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

02/23/2024

"ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 0237 UTC/22 FEBRUARY 2024 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

"A solar filament has erupted from the northwest solar quadrant and
a component of the predominately westward associated CME is expected
to arrive at the Earth during the second half of 24-Feb. G1 conditions, with the chance of G2 periods are possible during the second half of 24-Feb and first half of 25-Feb. Modeling shows the bulk of the CME missing the Earth.

"INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM 24-25 FEBRUARY 2024."

Spaceweather.com[1] wrote on February 22:

"TWO MAJOR SOLAR FLARES: Giant sunspot AR3590 just unleashed two
major X-class solar flares. The double blast approximately coincided
with a widely reported outage of cell phone service; however,
experts agree that the flares were probably not responsible. More
flares are in the offing. The sunspot has an unstable 'delta-class'
magnetic field, and it is turning toward Earth."

Sunspot numbers and solar flux values dropped over the past week,
with average daily sunspot numbers down from 134.6 to 84.4 and
average daily solar flux dropping from 190 to 164.

Geomagnetic conditions were very quiet. Planetary A index declined
from the low value of 7.4 to 4.4, and middle latitude A index from
6.1 to 3.5.

Only four new sunspot groups appeared, three on February 15 and one
on February 18.

Spaceweather.com says all their content is written by humans, with
no Artificial Intelligence at all.

I decided to ask an AI bot when Solar Cycle 25 will peak:

From Gemini AI bot:

"There are two main perspectives on when Solar Cycle 25 will reach
its maximum:

"Original prediction:

"An expert panel convened by NOAA, NASA, and ISES in 2019 predicted
a peak in July 2025 with a maximum sunspot number of 115.

"This prediction assumed a similar strength to the weak Solar Cycle
24.

"Revised prediction:

"In October 2023, NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC)
released a revised prediction based on observed activity. This new
prediction suggests a faster rise and higher peak, likely between
January and October 2024, with a sunspot number between 137 and 173.

"However, it's important to note that the timing could still fall
within the broad error range of November 2024 to March 2026.

"So, the answer depends on which prediction you consider:

"Original prediction: July 2025

"Revised prediction: Between January and October 2024 (more likely
than July 2025).

"It's important to stay updated on the latest information as
scientists continue to monitor the Sun's activity. You can find more
details and updates on the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
website:

"https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression[2]

"END AI BOT CONTENT."

I have bookmarked that last link.

ISES stands for the International Space Environment Service.

Here is a revised outlook for the next month, from USAF via NOAA.

Predicted solar flux is 175 on February 23, 180 on February 24-29,
then 160 and 165 on March 1-2, 170 on March 3-9, 165 on March 10-16,
then 162, 160, and 165 on March 17-19, 170 on March 20-21, 172 on
March 22-23, 165 on March 24-26, and 155, 160, and 165 on March
27-29, and 170 on March 30 into the first week in April.

Predicted planetary A index is 6, 5, 20 and 10 on February 23-26,
and 5 on February 27 through March 23, 8 and 7 on March 24-25, and 5
on March 26 through the first week in April.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - February 23-29, 2024 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

"During the last seven days, based on helioseismological
observations we first expected the rise of a larger active region at
the northeastern limb of the solar disk.

"Meanwhile, gradually most of the sunspot groups on its western half
have faded, whereby the solar flux has dropped to 152.

"The larger active region came out, was designated AR3590, and is
large enough to observe with the naked eye (in relation to the area
over 700 millionths of the solar disk), for example, using a solar
eclipse filter. However, its beta-gamma magnetic configuration was
not conducive to larger flares. All the more surprising were two
successive X-class flares: X1.8 on 21 February with a maximum at
2307 UT and X.1.7 on 22 February with a maximum at 0632 UT. However,
they were short-lived and not accompanied by CMEs. During the first
of these, shortwave propagation subsided, particularly in the
western USA and the Pacific (the Dellinger effect).

"Expect an increase in solar X-ray and ultraviolet radiation in the
coming days and mostly geomagnetically quiet conditions. As Spring
approaches, shortwave propagation will be mostly above average or
even better."

K7BTW posted this to the Western Washington DX Club email list on
February 20:

"Fantastic band conditions.

"If you're not taking advantage of these band conditions, you are
missing a lot. On 20 meters FT8 in the last few minutes around 8pm
(0400 UTC) I worked Middle East stations in Lebanon, Jordan, Saudi
Arabia, and Qatar, plus several UN and many Russians. Over the pole
conditions are incredible.

"Take advantage of the sunspot cycle.ÿ We know what it will be like
in 5 years!"

Jeff, N8II wrote on February 16:

"If we are at the peak, I would think this is a poor cycle.

"Not long ago the flux dropped below 130 briefly.

"10 meter conditions are excellent now with much better conditions
to East Asia in the evening than the first 3 weeks of January.

"Today at 2400 UTC 10 meters was open well to Taiwan working BX5AA
and also a BD4 around 0030 UTC. Japanese signals were excellent
until just before 0100 UTC. I heard 8R7X in Guyana running many
Japanese until 0100 UTC on 10 CW."

Here in Seattle where I (K7RA) live we have always had a pipeline to
Japan, which at times can seem overwhelming.

Reader David Moore sent this article from the European Space Agency:

https://tinyurl.com/bdz3uxnp[3]

Articles about powerful Solar Flares:

https://tinyurl.com/5ysj6xyt[4]

https://tinyurl.com/vkyfpyr4[5]

https://tinyurl.com/mrxa7uhb[6]

GeoNews article about the Solar max:

https://tinyurl.com/53zena9c[7]

Big sunspot AR3590 visible to the eye:

https://tinyurl.com/mrbw3fms[8]

The latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/T292oXH12Hk[9]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[10]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[11] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[12] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[13] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[14] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[15] .

Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[16]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[17] .

Sunspot numbers for February 15 through 21 2024 were 151, 97, 100,
84, 64, 50, and 45, with a mean of 84.4. 10.7 cm flux was 178.3,
168.8, 169.9, 156.5, 152.1, 152.6, and 169.9, with a mean of 164.
Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 4, 4, 6, 3, 6, and 4, with a
mean of 4.4. Middle latitude A index was 3, 3, 4, 4, 1, 5, and 3,
with a mean of 3.3.
ÿ


[1] http://Spaceweather.com
[2] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
[3] https://tinyurl.com/bdz3uxnp
[4] https://tinyurl.com/5ysj6xyt
[5] https://tinyurl.com/vkyfpyr4
[6] https://tinyurl.com/mrxa7uhb
[7] https://tinyurl.com/53zena9c
[8] https://tinyurl.com/mrbw3fms
[9] https://youtu.be/T292oXH12Hk
[10] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[11] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[12] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[13] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[14] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[15] http://k9la.us/
[16] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[17] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

03/01/2024

"ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 2208 UTC/29 FEBRUARY 2024 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

"A filament eruption was observed at 28/0855UT from the solar
southeast quadrant. The associated CME has been determined to
contain an Earth-directed component, with an arrival to Earth's
magnetosphere at 02/1100 UTC +/- 12 hours. G1 geomagnetic conditions
are expected.

"INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM 02-03 MARCH 2024."

Seven new sunspot groups emerged this week, four on February 23, one
on February 25, another on February 26 and one more on February 28.

Solar activity increased this reporting week, February 22-28,
compared to the week before. Average daily sunspot number rose from
84.4 to 108.4, and solar flux from 164 to 175.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet, though the numbers rose.
Planetary A index went from 4.4 to 8.4, and middle latitude numbers
from 3.3 to 7.4.

The predicted solar flux is 160, 155, and 160 on March 1-3, 165 on
March 4-5, 160 and 165 on March 6-7, 165 on March 8-9, 168 on March
10, then 165 on March 11-12, 160 on March 13-14, then 168 and 172 on
March 15-16, then 175, 175 and 178 on March 17-19, 180 on March
20-24, and 175 on March 25-26, then 180 and 175 on March 27-28, 170
on March 29-30, 172 on March 31 to April 1, 170 on April 2, and 165
on April 3-5.
ÿ
The predicted planetary A index is 8, 12, 12 and 10 on March 1-4,
then 5 on March 5-23, then 15, 12 and 12 on March 24-26, and 5 on
March 27 to mid-April.

Spaceweather.com[1] reported on giant sunspot AR3590:ÿ "In only 23
hours spanning February 21-22, the active region unleashed three
powerful X-class solar flares (X1.8, X1.7 and X6.3). The X6.3 flare
is the strongest of Solar Cycle 25, so far, and the most powerful
flare since the great solar storms of September 2017."

Because there were no CMEs, there were no geomagnetic storms, but
extreme ultraviolet radiation ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere
and caused several shortwave blackouts over Hawaii and Australia on
February 21-22.

Sunspot group AR3590 is the largest of the current solar cycle.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - February 29, 2024 from OK1HH:

"Over the past seven days, we have seen the deflection of an active
region of AR3590 on the Sun, 760 millionths of the size of the solar
disk. On February 25, it already occupied an area of 1450
millionths, making it the largest group of spots so far since the
beginning of the 25th cycle. It produced its largest and extra
proton flares on February 21-22, including three X-class flares in
23 hours. The largest of these, X6.3 on 22 February, with a maximum
at 2324 UT, was the most important flare since the beginning of
Solar Cycle 25.

"Proton flares were no exception and caused an absorption in the
polar cap (PCA). The first of these was recorded on 9 February in
the already setting region AR3575. At the same time, there was a
region AR3576 in the southeast of the solar disk, which will rise
again in the next few days, so we do not have to worry about a
decrease in solar activity.

"With the exception of the unsettled days of February 25-27, the
geomagnetic field was mostly calm. We expect a similar pattern in
the coming weeks. Ideally, the mostly calm development could last
until the Spring Equinox. If this happens, shortwave propagation
conditions will be mostly above average."

This weekend is the ARRL International DX SSB contest. For details
see:

https://www.arrl.org/arrl-dx[2]

Some articles about solar basics:

https://www.ktvh.com/news/weather-wise/weather-wise-sunspots[3]

https://bit.ly/49AmNKf[4]

https://bit.ly/3V0biHJ[5]

https://bit.ly/3wE1Orx[6]

https://star-hunter.ru/en/sunspots-2024-02-28/[7]

Popular Science article about a Solar Minima:

https://www.popsci.com/science/sun-quiet/[8]

I do not trust the data or the correlations in this article, but
there is some interesting content here:

https://bit.ly/48Ablxc[9]

Latest video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/V-PQSkYYEB4[10]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[11]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[12] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[13] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[14] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[15] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[16] .

Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[17]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[18] .

Sunspot numbers for February 22 through 28 2024 were 46, 116, 106,
114, 133, 103, and 127, with a mean of 106.4. 10.7 cm flux was
173.3, 172.9, 179.2, 180.8, 171.7, 168.3, and 179.1, with a mean of
175. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 3, 7, 13, 11, 13, and 6,
with a mean of 8.4. Middle latitude A index was 6, 2, 6, 14, 10, 9,
and 5, with a mean of 7.4.

ÿ


[1] http://Spaceweather.com
[2] https://www.arrl.org/arrl-dx
[3] https://www.ktvh.com/news/weather-wise/weather-wise-sunspots
[4] https://bit.ly/49AmNKf
[5] https://bit.ly/3V0biHJ
[6] https://bit.ly/3wE1Orx
[7] https://star-hunter.ru/en/sunspots-2024-02-28/
[8] https://www.popsci.com/science/sun-quiet/
[9] https://bit.ly/48Ablxc
[10] https://youtu.be/V-PQSkYYEB4
[11] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[12] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[13] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[14] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[15] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[16] http://k9la.us/
[17] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[18] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

03/08/2024

Until March 6, new sunspot groups emerged daily over the past
reporting week, February 29 through March 6.

One new sunspot group appeared every day on February 29 through
March 3, then two new groups on March 4 and another on March 5.

It seems odd, but average daily sunspot number was about the same
(changing from 106.4 to 106.7), but the average daily solar flux had
a substantial drop, from 175 to 147.4.

Average daily planetary A index was up from 8.4 to 10, while middle
latitude numbers rose from 7.4 to 8.

The March 3 planetary A index was 29. Spaceweather.com[1] reported a G2 geomagnetic storm at 0930 UTC. On March 7 they said NOAA expects a
minor storm on March 9.

The solar flux forecast sees a short term peak at 180 on March 21-23
and another on April 17-19.

Predicted solar flux is 140 on March 8-9, 145 on March 10-12, then
140 and 135 on March 13-14, then 170 on March 15-16, then 165, 160,
170 and 175 on March 17-20, 180 on March 21-23, 175 on March 24-25,
170 on March 26-27, 160 on March 28-29, then 165 and 145 on March
30-31, then 140 on April 1-2, 135 on April 3-8, and 140, 160, 170,
170, 165 and 160 on April 9-14.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on March 8-10, 5 on March 11-23,
then 15, 12, 12, 5, 10, and 8 on March 24-29, and 5 on March 30
through April 5, then 12 and 10 on April 6-7, and 5 on April 8
through the middle of the month and beyond.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - March 7, 2024 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:
ÿ
"Active region AR3590 which swelled to the largest of the 25th solar
cycle in February and where the largest flare was observed, was
located on the northwestern limb of the disk in early March,
whereupon it was observed by the Mars rover Perseverance from Jezero
Crater (Jezero means Lake in Czech).

"From the solar flare on February 28, the CME arrived at Earth on
March 3 - one day later than predicted. It triggered a G3 class
geomagnetic disturbance, which began by developing a positive storm
phase with a significant increase in MUF. It continued over the next
three days in a negative phase with a significant decrease in MUF
and an increase in attenuation, especially in the polar regions.

"Neither major flares nor major geomagnetic activity are expected in
the next few days. Therefore, propagation will gradually improve to
slightly above average. We expect a significant improvement around
the equinox. This time, however, the improvement will be more
pronounced as solar activity will gradually increase in the
meantime."

The Vernal Equinox occurs at 0306 UTC, March 20 and marks the
beginning of Spring in the Northern Hemisphere and the Autumnal
Equinox in the Southern Hemisphere.

Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research is looking for
volunteers:

https://bit.ly/4a43yZk[2]

From DailyMotion, an August 2022 solar video:

https://bit.ly/3v0RARw[3]

Space.com article about the April 8 solar eclipse:

https://bit.ly/3PdXnKl[4]

Eclipse missions:

https://stardate.org/podcast/2024-03-07[5]

An article about solar dynamo behavior during a Grand Solar Minima:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-55317-w[6]

From LiveScience, is the peak of Solar Cycle 25 already here?

https://bit.ly/3Taxe0p[7]

A quiet Sun:

https://bit.ly/3T98PIh[8]

Thanks to W7WKR for this article about Maritime Radio Historical
Society Station KPH:

https://bit.ly/49Fpjiz[9]

[Station K6KPH also transmits W1AW Qualifying Run transmissions: https://www.radiomarine.org/mrhs-stations/blog-post-title-four-r3jyw[10]
-Ed.]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[11]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[12] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[13] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[14] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[15] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[16] .

Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[17]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[18] .

Sunspot numbers for February 29 through March 6 2024 were 107, 120,
91, 90, 113, 121, and 105, with a mean of 106.7. 10.7 cm flux was
164.1, 152.8, 152.3, 145.5, 139.9, 141.5, and 136, with a mean of
147.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 9, 5, 29, 10, 7, and 6,
with a mean of 10. Middle latitude A index was 4, 9, 3, 20, 8, 7,
and 5, with a mean of 8.
NNNN
/EX

ÿ


[1] http://Spaceweather.com
[2] https://bit.ly/4a43yZk
[3] https://bit.ly/3v0RARw
[4] https://bit.ly/3PdXnKl
[5] https://stardate.org/podcast/2024-03-07
[6] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-55317-w
[7] https://bit.ly/3Taxe0p
[8] https://bit.ly/3T98PIh
[9] https://bit.ly/49Fpjiz
[10] https://www.radiomarine.org/mrhs-stations/blog-post-title-four-r3jyw
[11] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[12] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[13] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[14] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[15] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[16] http://k9la.us/
[17] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[18] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

03/15/2024

Six new sunspot groups appeared over the past reporting week, March
7-13, and one more on March 14.

The first group emerged on March 7, two more appeared on March 12,
and three more on March 13.

Solar activity was down. Average daily sunspot number went from
106.7 to 82.3, and solar flux from 147.4 to 130.4. Geomagnetic
indicators were somewhat quieter, with average daily planetary A
index dropping from 10 to 8.9, and middle latitude A index from 8 to
7.

The Vernal Equinox in the Northern Hemisphere is on Wednesday, March
20 at 0306 UTC. This marks a transition to Spring HF conditions,
always a positive effect.

I am not certain where we are in Solar Cycle 25, perhaps near the
peak, or the max could be next year.

Solar activity seems to be in the doldrums recently, and of course
we will only know when the peak has occurred six to twelve months
after it happens. This is because the official smoothed sunspot
number is a one year average. This erases lots of noise in the
graphic representation due to daily variations in sunspot numbers.

The outlook for the next few weeks shows continued low numbers, with
predicted solar flux at 135 on March 15-17, then 140, 145, 150 and
155 on March 18-21, 135 on March 22-23, then 132, 130, 132 and 138
on March 24-27, 140 on March 28-29, then 142, 140, 135, 130 and 128
on March 30 through April 3, and 125 on April 4-8, then 122, 118,
122, 125, 122, 127 and 130 on April 9-15, then 135 on April 16-19.

Predicted planetary A index is 12, 8 and 8 March 15-17, 5 on March
18-27, then 10 and 8 on March 28-29, 5 on March 30 through April 2,
and 12 on April 3-5, then 5, 10, 8 and 8 on April 6-9, then 5 on
April 10-23.

"Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - March 14, 2024:
ÿ
"In the last seven days, there were repeated situations where we
expected a CME to hit the Earth's magnetic field (while a weak G1
class geomagnetic storm was predicted by NOAA), but there have been
at most only isolated upswings, with the planetary K index at 4. The
active region AR3599 returned to the solar disk, but it was much
smaller and less active than during the last solar rotation. It
produced at least a strong M7.4 class solar flare on March 10 at
1213 UTC.

"Shortly after AR3599 sets behind the southwestern limb of the solar
disk, the former AR3590 rises in the northeast. According to
helioseismological observations, it remains the largest of all on
the Sun's far side. Its activity will have a decisive influence on
the evolution of shortwave propagation around the approaching
equinox.

"Thirty-five years ago, at the peak of Solar Cycle 22, a powerful
CME hit our planet. It happened on March 13, 1989, and within 90
seconds, the entire Hydro-Quebec power grid was knocked out. The
outage lasted nine hours, millions of Quebecois were without light
and heat, and nine months later, the affected area experienced a
significant increase in birth rates. The treachery consists in
inducing direct currents into the lines, to which the transformers
in the alternating current grid offer little resistance.

"On March 13, 1989, the biggest storm of the space age occurred. But
the bigger one was the 'Carrington Event' of September 1859. It
produced a storm twice as powerful as the one mentioned in March
1989. It later turned out that the cause was not one, but two CMEs,
and came from the X4.5 eruptions of March 10 and M7.3 of March 12.

"F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH."

NASA-funded team of scientists discovered long-lasting radio
signals:

https://bit.ly/48VrH3F[1]

Sunspot cluster responsible for monster flare spotted on far side of
the Sun:

https://bit.ly/3IDA5Kc[2]

Recent videos from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/2nWLAYL01FA[3]

https://youtu.be/v4wf-EjTN4k[4]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[5]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[6] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10] .

Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[11]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12] .

Sunspot numbers for March 7 through 13 2024 were 99, 91, 99, 77, 56,
68, and 86, with a mean of 82.3. 10.7 cm flux was 136.6, 129, 134.5,
127, 126.7, 130.5, and 128.3, with a mean of 130.4. Estimated
planetary A indices were 12, 11, 13, 7, 4, 6, and 9, with a mean of
8.9. Middle latitude A index was 8, 9, 11, 6, 4, 4, and 7, with a
mean of 7.

ÿ


[1] https://bit.ly/48VrH3F
[2] https://bit.ly/3IDA5Kc
[3] https://youtu.be/2nWLAYL01FA
[4] https://youtu.be/v4wf-EjTN4k
[5] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[6] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[10] http://k9la.us/
[11] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

03/22/2024

Over March 14-20, new sunspot groups emerged every day except March
19. March 18 had two, and each of the other days saw one new sunspot
group.

It is now Spring in the Northern Hemisphere which is favorable to HF conditions, and solar and geomagnetic numbers both show improvement.

Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 82.3 to 94.3, and average
daily solar flux jumped from 130.4 to 153.3.

Geomagnetic indicators were very quiet, with the average daily
planetary A index dropping from 8.9 to 5.9, and middle latitude
numbers from 7 to 5.

Here is the outlook for the next month.

Predicted solar flux is 180 and 178 on March 22-23, 174 on March
24-25, then 176 on March 26-27, 178 on March 28, 165 on March 29-30,
160 on March 31, 155 on April 1-3, then 158 on April 4, 160 on April
5-6, then 162, 155, 150, and 145 on April 7-10, 148 on April 11-12,
then 152, 155, 160, 162, 165 and 160 on April 13-18, then 155 on
April 19-20, 152 on April 21, 160 on April 22-23, then 162, 165, 165
and 160 on April 24-27, and 155 on April 28-30.

Predicted planetary A index is 12, 5, 16, 18 and 8 on March 22-26,
then 5, 5 and 8 on March 27-29, 5 on March 30 through April 2, then
15, 12 and 12 on April 3-5, 5 on April 6-8, 8 on April 9-11, then 5
on April 12-23, 10 on April 24-25, and 5 on April 26-29.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - March 21, 2024, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

"Solar activity on average continues to increase toward the Solar
Cycle 25 maximum. This included a shower of protons that came from
the admittedly smaller in X-ray intensity but primarily long-lived
flare on the morning hours UTC of March 15. The particle density
peaked a day later when the proton event reached S1. High polar cap
absorption of radio waves was recorded at the same time.

"The geomagnetic field remains mostly calm, with the occurrence of
short active intervals. An increase in geomagnetic activity was
expected after the eruption of 17 March. A partial CME halo was
observed and ejected particles were expected in the vicinity of the
Earth first on 20 March, then on the evening of 20 March, and then
on the morning of 21 March. The result was an increase in MUF
already in the forenoon UTC.ÿ An increase in the Earth's magnetic
field activity occurred in the afternoon.

"The new sunspot group AR3615, which emerged in the southeast of the
solar disk, although not yet large, has a complex magnetic
structure. This configuration increases the probability of magnetic reconnection during a solar flare. Especially if an X-class solar
flare occurs, the probability of CME will increase."

Angel Santana, WP3GW wrote about conditions on March 16 in an email:

"With much expectation worked the Russian DX contest on SSB, but
then noticed rough conditions, so bad that after 1600 UTC signals
were gone, not seen on my radio. After 1730 UTC saw them come back
but conditions were still bad.

"Next day did the BARTG RTTY contest after 1430 UTC and fared
better.

"Did it have to do with one of the six sunspots last week? Hope prop
is good in a week from now."

I replied that according to Spaceweather.com[1], departing sunspot
AR3599 blasted protons toward Earth on March 14, causing a polar cap
absorption event on March 16. The ionizing effect of the protons
absorbed radio signals inside the arctic circle.

Nasa Space Flight article about VLA detection of radiation above
sunspots:

https://bit.ly/4cDDref[2]

Article about Radio Blackout:

https://bit.ly/3ILT6KH[3]

From Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

"Dear Tad,

"Recently our Sun gave us a surprise when a solar storm we thought
would be a glancing blow, actually hit us pretty hard. That was back
on March 3rd and some gorgeous aurora shows were seen in Tasmania
and Australia (see my forecast from that week for some amazing
pictures: https://youtu.be/2nWLAYL01FA[4]).

"Here we are several weeks later with yet another glancing blow set
to hit us midday March 20th. The official forecast is calling for a
weak impact, but our recent experience has left me wondering: Are we
are going to make the same mistake twice?

"These are the kinds of dilemmas that make space weather such a
tough field today. Compared to terrestrial weather, there are so
many things we simply cannot foresee.

"Turning to the forecast, big flare activity is beginning again
thanks to old Region 3590 rotating back into view along with some
new players as well. Amateur radio bands are getting noisier and
radio blackouts are resuming on the daylight side of Earth. Of
course, the big story is the solar storm coming towards us. Will it
be relatively mild at mid-latitudes, as the predictions suggest?
This time, I'm not so sure. Either way, I will remain on the
lookout.

"Cheers, Tamitha."

Here is her latest video report:

https://youtu.be/O6vZDFaBfrc[5]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[6]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[7] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[8] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[9] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[10] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[11] .

Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[12]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[13] .

Sunspot numbers for March 14 through 20 2024 were 88, 49, 67, 86,
127, 123, and 120, with a mean of 94.3. 10.7 cm flux was 127.1, 129,
144.1, 151.3, 177.4, 168.9, and 175.5, with a mean of 153.3.
Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 8, 3, 3, 6, 9, and 4, with a
mean of 5.9. Middle latitude A index was 7, 8, 3, 2, 5, 7, and 3,
with a mean of 5.

ÿ


[1]
[2] https://bit.ly/4cDDref
[3] https://bit.ly/3ILT6KH
[4] https://youtu.be/2nWLAYL01FA
[5] https://youtu.be/O6vZDFaBfrc
[6] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[7] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[11] http://k9la.us/
[12] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[13] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

03/29/2024

ÿA dramatic increase in solar activity emerged over the past week, and geomagnetic activity reacted as well.

Two new sunspot groups appeared on March 21, then one new group emerged each day over March 22-25.

Average daily solar flux rose from 153.3 to 191.9, and average daily sunspot numbers increased from 94.3 to 147.

The highest sunspot number over last week was 171 on March 22, which was the highest sunspot number since November 22-25, 2023 when the numbers were 174, 176, 184, and 179.

Average daily planetary A index jumped from 5.9 to 25.4, and middle latitude numbers from 5 to 19.

On March 24 the college A index in Fairbanks, Alaska reached 100! The planetary A index was 64.ÿ Looking ahead, solar flux is predicted to reach a peak of 210 on April 23-24.

The projected solar flux is 175, 170 and 155 on March 29-31, 150 on April 1-2, 155 on April 3-4, 185 on April 5, then 180 and 185 on April 4-5, 190 on April 6-7, then 185, 180, 175 and 180 on April 8-11, 185 on April 12-13, then 190, 185, 190, 185 and 180 on April 14-18, then 175 on April 19-20, then 200 and 205 on April 21-22, 210 on April 23-24, then 205, 190 and 180 on April 25-27, 175 on April 28-29, then 170, 180 and 185 on April 30 through May 2, and 190 on May 3-4.

The planetary A index forecast shows 8 and 6 on March 29-30, 10 on March 31 through April 1, then 8, 5, 5 and 12 on April 2-5, 5 on April 6-8, 8 on April 9-11, 5 on April 12-18, then 8, 10, 10 and 8 on April 19-22, 5 on April 23-29, then 15, 12, and 12 on April 30 through May 2, and 5 on May 3-5.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere for March 28, 2024 from F. K. Janda, OK1HH: ÿ

ÿThe period without stronger disturbances in the Earth's magnetic field was incredibly long: 19 December 2023 to 20 April 2024, or three whole months.ÿ But it had to end at some point.ÿ Especially since we're near the peak of the 11-year solar cycle.

ÿAround March 20, we were expecting the rise of a larger sunspot group in the northeastern solar disk, AR3614.ÿ The bigger surprise, however, was the simultaneous emergence of another group, designated AR3615, which surprised us both by its size and dispersion and by the number of moderate flares produced, which totaled eleven on March 23.

ÿAlthough AR3614 was the source of a much smaller number of flares, it made up for everything with a large proton flare, accompanied by a CME, on 23 March with a maximum at 0133 UT.ÿ The Earth was bombarded by energetic protons on the following days, while simultaneously being hit by particle clouds from flares in both active regions.ÿ Which couldn't have resulted in anything other than the development of a magnetic storm.ÿ Its intensity was greatest on April 24.

ÿThe disturbance began on April 23, however, with an increase in MUF, or so-called positive phase.ÿ A significant decrease in MUF and an increase in the attenuation of radio waves in the ionosphere occurred since 24 March.ÿ The significant deterioration of shortwave propagation conditions lasted until 26 March.

ÿA return to slightly above-average propagation is expected after March 28.

In a March 28 email titled "Big CME impact ignites 6 meters", Jon Jones, N0JK in Kansas wrote:

"The CME that struck March 24 ignited 6 meters for the Midwest USA through Wednesday March 26.

"On March 24 I logged 9Y4D on 6 Meter FT8 and had good copy on VP8WA up to +4 dB.ÿ Had a psk flag from CE8EIO at -5 dB.ÿ The planetary K index went to 8.

"March 25 copied HD8MD from my fixed mobile (1/4 wave whip) around 1930 UTC up to -7 dB on FT8.

"March 26 worked HC5VF, copied HD8MD, LU1WFU, HC2AP/P, HC1BI, LU8DRH, CX4DSAE and many others on FT8.ÿ Big pileups on the DX stations.

Jon N0JK EM28 KS"

Shortwave blackout:ÿ https://bit.ly/3IYnul6[1]

Check out the KN8DMK page on QRZ.COM.ÿ Using a VLF receiver on 40.75 KHz, he monitored US Navy transmitter NAU in Puerto Rico during a solar flare.

Tamitha Skov video:ÿ https://youtu.be/SSPbzvxbX2M[2]

This weekend is the CQ World Wide WPX SSB Contest.ÿ See https://cqwpx.com/[3] for info.ÿ The CW weekend is May 25-26.

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[4] .ÿ When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[5] and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[6] . For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see ÿ

http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[7] ÿ.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at

http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8] .

More good information and tutorials on propagation are at

http://k9la.us/[9]

Also, check this: https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[10]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11] .

Sunspot numbers for March 21 through 27 2024 were 141, 171, 146, 145, 163, 149, and 114, with a mean of 147.ÿ 10.7 cm flux was 196.9, 197.6, 210.7, 195.1, 190.1, 178.2, and 174.6, with a mean of 191.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 27, 11, 36, 64, 22, 11, and 7, with a mean of 25.4.ÿ Middle latitude A index was 20, 10, 25, 43, 17, 11, and 7, with a mean of 19.


[1] https://bit.ly/3IYnul6
[2] https://youtu.be/SSPbzvxbX2M
[3] https://cqwpx.com/
[4] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[5] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[9] http://k9la.us/
[10] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

04/05/2024

With the big increase in sunspot numbers and solar flux reported in
last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP013, I hoped the trend
would continue, but numbers this week were lower.

Five new sunspot groups emerged, one each day from March 30 through
April 3.

Average daily sunspot numbers went from 147 to 60, and average daily
solar flux declined from 191.9 to 136.9.

Geomagnetic numbers were much quieter. Average daily planetary A
index softened to 7.6 from 25.4.

Predicted solar flux is 115 on April 5-8, 120 on April 9-10, 125 on
April 11, 140 on April 12-13, 150 on April 14-16, 160 on April
17-18, 170 on April 19-24, then 160, 150 and 140 on April 25-27,
then 130 on April 28 through May 4 then 160, 150, and 140 on May
5-10, then 150 on May 11-13.

The predicted flux values this week are much lower than in last
week's forecast for the same period.

Predicted planetary A index is 16 and 10 on April 5-6, 5 on April
7-8, 8 on April 9-10, 5 on April 11-18, 8 and 10 on April 19-20, 8
on April 21-23, 5 on April 24-26, 10 on April 27-28, 8 on April 29,
and 12 on April 30 through May 2, then 8, 5 and 5 on May 3-5, 8 on
May 6-8, and 5 on May 9-15.

The Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - April 4, 2024 from OK1HH:

"The two large and very active sunspot groups, AR3614 and AR3615,
bade us farewell last week by going beyond the western limb of the
solar disk. AR3615 still unleashed two powerful M-class flares and
an X1 flare that ionized the upper part of the Earth's atmosphere
and caused the Dellinger effect (shortwave fade) over the Pacific
Ocean on March 28 (with a maximum at 2053 UTC).

"AR3615 still managed to produce an M9.4-class solar flare on March
30, which was only one percent weaker than an X-class flare. After
that, we expected particles originating from solar radiation to
arrive in the vicinity of Earth, but this did not happen. The
development in the following days was therefore relatively quiet.

"Due to the calming of the geomagnetic field, we expected an
improvement in shortwave propagation. This occurred from 2 April
onwards but was only very slight due to the rapid decrease in solar
activity. After the return of active regions to the solar disk, we
expect an improvement in propagation, especially in the third decade
of April."

(I think he refers to a decade as a ten day period, so this would be
the last ten days of April).

Angel Santana, WP3GW, sent an email about last week's contest:

"WPX for me was pretty good even though I did not reach my goal.
There were openings toward Europe during Saturday midnight on 20
meters.

"Now on Sunday at midday, I noticed a reduction of stations on 10
meters, just like 2 weeks ago, but there were many strong stations
from South America and an hour later back to normal. My friend Jose,
KP4JRS (who operated as NP3YL) noticed this over the two days on 10
meters.

"Also noticed when a big contest is on the air, the bands tend to be
almost 'noiseless.'

"Not sure if because the SFI has gone down but today Thursday at
1500 UTC there is much noise on the bands. Hope the weekend fares
better."

WX2R reminds us that coming up on Monday, April 8 is the HamSCI
Solar Eclipse QSO Party:

"Join with thousands of your fellow amateurs as part of the largest crowd-sourced event for ham radio scientific exploration ever! The
SEQP is part of 'The Festivals of Eclipse Ionospheric Science' and
is for learning more about how the ionosphere works. Use any mode,
any band for all or part of the day!

"Participation can be from everywhere - you need not be near the
path of the eclipse to contribute valuable data by participating.

"Are you a contester? For details on the SEQP contest and rules go
to www.hamsci.org/contest-info[1]. Don't forget to send in your log.

"For the Gladstone Signal Spotting Challenge using CW, WSPR and
FST4W modes, go to www.hamsci.org/contest-info[2].

"If you're an SWL or AM DX'er, there is the 'Medium Wave Recording
Event' for you as well. Go to www.hamsci.org/mw-recordings/[3].

"Or just get on the air and help provide the data to better
understand the ionosphere.ÿ Monday, 8 April 2024. Get on the air!
1400-2400 UTC.

"Do it for science! Any band/any mode except 60, 30, 17, and 12
meters."

From Forbes Magazine, an eclipse guide:

https://bit.ly/3J4zzoX[4]

A DailyMotion video of a long duration flare, but no date given:

https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8w8viq[5]

Chip, N2YO, sent this email last week.

"Thanks for your excellent ARRL propagation bulletins!

"I also am running a weekly propagation bulletin for more than 20
years (in Romanian language). The bulletin is available on the web,
distributed online by email, and read during the 'Info DX' QTC on
80m each Thursday in Romania.

"All bulletins are available here:

https://www.radioamator.ro/misc/buletinepropagare.php[6]

"On the first of each month I update a page of propagation charts in
certain directions, centered on YO:

https://www.radioamator.ro/misc/grafice_propagare.php[7]

"I also run a YO DX Cluster which is powered by a DX Spider server
hosted by a Raspberry Pi in my basement that feeds a web page:

"https://www.radioamator.ro/yocluster/[8]

"In fact, I run the whole radioamator.ro website, which is the most
popular YO ham radio resource on internet. This year the website
will have the 20th anniversary."

Recent video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/yKNB1YRX7kg[9]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[10]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell
us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[11] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[12] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[13] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[14] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[15] .

Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[16]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[17] .

Sunspot numbers for March 28 through April 3 2024 were 101, 79, 60,
50, 50, 35, and 45, with a mean of 60. 10.7 cm flux was 172.7,
167.3, 139.6, 133.6, 120.4, 112.8, and 111.7, with a mean of 136.9.
Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 6, 5, 9, 11, 8, and 7, with a
mean of 7.6. Middle latitude A index was 6, 4, 4, 8, 9, 7, and 10,
with a mean of 6.9.

ÿ


[1] http://www.hamsci.org/contest-info
[2] http://www.hamsci.org/contest-info
[3] http://www.hamsci.org/mw-recordings/
[4] https://bit.ly/3J4zzoX
[5] https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8w8viq
[6] https://www.radioamator.ro/misc/buletinepropagare.php
[7] https://www.radioamator.ro/misc/grafice_propagare.php
[8] https://www.radioamator.ro/yocluster/
[9] https://youtu.be/yKNB1YRX7kg
[10] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[11] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[12] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[13] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[14] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[15] http://k9la.us/
[16] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[17] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

04/12/2024

I did not see last Monday's eclipse, except on television. Here in
the Pacific Northwest, we only got a 20% exposure, and skies were
overcast.

As they moved across the country displaying successive totality, I
noticed the prominences on the edge of the disk. There were always
between one and three little red spots at the edge.

Solar activity over the past reporting week, April 4-10, remains
weak.

Average daily sunspot number rose from 60 to 67.9, but average solar
flux declined from 136.9 to 123.2.

Seven new sunspot groups emerged this week, one on April 4, three on
April 5, another on April 6, one more on April 8, and another on
April 10.

Here is the outlook for the next few weeks, which does not seem
promising. Solar flux peaks at 160 over April 17-18.

Predicted solar flux is 148, 150 and 155 on April 12-14, 158 on
April 15-16, 160 on April 17-18, 140 on April 19-20, 135 on April
21-22, 140 and 145 on April 23-24, 140 on April 25-26, then 135, 125
and 120 on April 27-29, and 125 on April 30 through May 10, then 130
on May 11-12, 135 on May 13-14, and 130 on May 15-18.

Predicted planetary A index is quiet over the next month, starting
with 5, 8, 15, 10 and 8 on April 12-16, 5 on April 17-18, 8 and 10
on April 19-20, 8 on April 21-23, 5 on April 24-27, then 8, 8 and 7
on April 28-30, 10 on May 1-3, 5 on May 4-5, 8 on May 6-8, and 5 on
May 9-15, then 8 and 10 on May 16-17, and 8 on May 18-20.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - April 11, 2024, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

"At the end of March, it was still possible to see large sunspot
groups, during the last solar rotation marked as AR3614 and
especially the giant AR3615. We will see them again on the eastern
limb of the solar disk this weekend. This will end a roughly
two-week period of relatively quiet solar activity without major
solar flares.

"The Sun's total X-ray output, which has dropped by almost an order
of magnitude, will increase significantly, which will have a
beneficial effect on shortwave propagation.

"Daily MUF values will gradually increase, while active regions will
be on the eastern half of the solar disk. For that reason, here will
be little probability of major geomagnetic disturbances. Of course,
now that the peak of the 11-year cycle is approaching, events such
as the eruption of solar plasma filaments that could affect the
Earth cannot be ruled out."

Dennis Wage, N9OQ of Plover, Wisconsin did a casual experiment
during the recent eclipse:

"We did an experiment on 160m.

"During the eclipse we found that the band opened slightly and we had
very good copy on CW between some stations.ÿ The band then closed as
the eclipse ended."

Douglas Barbier, N8ZVT, wrote in an email:

"Why is the solar flux so low, given the number of sunspots?ÿ What
else may be affecting the solar flux?

"This is my first solar maximum as a ham - and at my age, might be
the last. I had always heard stories of how 10m would be open 24
hours a day for voice and working all over the world with low power
SSB.ÿ Sure haven't seen that yet at all."

I replied:

"That was nearly 70 years ago at the peak of Solar Cycle 19 when 10
meters was open 24/7.

"There has never been a similar solar cycle since the dawn of radio.
It was all AM back then, no SSB.

"Solar flux readings come from an observatory in Penticton, BC:

"https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-5 -flux-en.php[1]

"I have not noticed that solar flux was low.

"Because Earth is in an elliptical orbit around the Sun, a variation
in distance affects solar flux.

"That is why you will see adjusted values in the flux readings from
Penticton.

"You can get a graphic view of sunspot numbers and solar flux from
the WA4TTK solar data plotting utility at:

"http://www.craigcentral.com/sol.asp[2]

"You can update the data automatically using data from this weekly
bulletin."

Solar cycles explained:

https://www.snexplores.org/article/explainer-solar-cycle[3]

A solar cycle clock:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-58960-5[4]

Flares during eclipse:

https://bit.ly/3VRBxk0[5]

Prominences, not flares:

https://bit.ly/49waWMC[6]

Solar Cycles:

https://bit.ly/3PY4F5p[7]

Internet apocalypse due to solar storms:

https://bit.ly/3vBW69C[8]

Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, reports during the eclipse:

https://youtu.be/Z16_Uk1vym8[9]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[10]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[11] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[12] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[13] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[14] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[15] .

Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[16]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[17] .

Sunspot numbers for April 4 through 10 2024 were 47, 81, 71, 79, 79,
64, and 54, with a mean of 67.9. 10.7 cm flux was 113.7, 120.5,
122.9, 124.6, 124.8, 124.4, and 131.2, with a mean of 123.2.
Estimated planetary A indices were 12, 12, 10, 6, 8, 11, and 8, with
a mean of 9.6. Middle latitude A index was 33, 10, 8, 5, 8, 10, and
7, with a mean of 11.6.

ÿ


[1] https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php
[2] http://www.craigcentral.com/sol.asp
[3] https://www.snexplores.org/article/explainer-solar-cycle
[4] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-58960-5
[5] https://bit.ly/3VRBxk0
[6] https://bit.ly/49waWMC
[7] https://bit.ly/3PY4F5p
[8] https://bit.ly/3vBW69C
[9] https://youtu.be/Z16_Uk1vym8
[10] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[11] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[12] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[13] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[14] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[15] http://k9la.us/
[16] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[17] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

04/19/2024

Solar activity increased dramatically this reporting week (April
11-17), and thirteen new sunspot groups emerged. One appeared on
April 11, two more on April 13, three more on April 14, another two
on April 15, one more on April 16 and another two on April 17. On
April 18 an additional two sunspot groups emerged, and the daily
sunspot number increased to 247.

The daily sunspot number was 199 on April 17, the highest value
since July 12, 2023 when it was 219. On April 18, when the sunspot
number was 247, it was the highest sunspot number since July 6, 2014
when it was 256. That was back in Solar Cycle 24, so 247 is a new
record for Solar Cycle 25.

Average daily sunspot numbers jumped from 67.9 to 142.7, and average
daily solar flux from 123.2 to 177.4.

Predicted solar flux over the near term is 225 on April 19, 220 on
April 20-21, 215 and 205 on April 22-23, 190 on April 24-25, then
140, 130, 125 and 120 on April 26-29, then 125 on April 30 to May 6,
and 130, 140, 150, 160 and 175 on May 7-11, then 180 on May 12-14,
175 on May 15, 170 on May 16-17, then 167 and 165 on May 18-19, 160
on May 20-21, then 155, 140, 135, 125 and 120 on May 22-26.

Predicted planetary A index is 6, 10, 12 and 8 on April 19-22, 5 on
April 23-27, 8 on April 28-29, 7 on April 30, 10 on May 1-3, 5 on
May 4, 8 on May 5-7, 5 on May 8-11, 10 and 8 on May 12-13, then 5 on
May 14-24, and 8 on May 25-26.

"Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - April 18, 2024:

"Over the past weekend, active sunspot regions began to emerge on
the eastern limb as expected. Curiosity about what we would actually
see was heightened because their flare activity during the last
rotation was somewhat higher than usual. Therefore, the CME from a
moderate eruption in the northern hemisphere of the Sun on April 11
with a maximum at 1706 UTC was not a surprise. The arrival of the
particle cloud on April 14 was therefore expected, but it missed the
Earth.

"Another CME was ejected towards Earth on 12 April. Although neither
CME was particularly strong, a G1 class geomagnetic storm was
expected. This occurred on 16 April, so either the particle cloud
moved more slowly or traveled along a longer path toward the Earth.
Either way, the disturbance worsened shortwave propagation on April
16. But the improvement was rapid, starting as early as April 17.
The credit for this goes to the increasing solar radiation coming
from the active regions we can observe on the Sun this week and
next.

"Another weak CME left the Sun on April 15, and the Earth's impact
was calculated for April 18. However, all predictions of
disturbances at the current stage of the 11-year cycle are
unreliable. They are usually either late (by a day or so) or not at
all. The important thing is the result - due to the relatively high
solar activity and at the same time the small number of geomagnetic disturbances, the shortwave propagation conditions are mostly above
average.ÿ F.K. Janda, OK1HH."

Check out these videos and an article on flare activity from
EarthSky:

https://bit.ly/3W4GTID[1]

On April 16, Samuel, K5KJ called ARRL headquarters about unusual
propagation he experienced.

He said flare activity caused a radio blackout, and on 40 meters he
could not hear any local or regional signals.

But he noticed foreign broadcast stations from Asia with good
signals.

He said this is just the opposite of what he expected during a
blackout.

Durango Herald article about sunspots and prominences:

https://bit.ly/3Q3VDnh[2]

NASA on Space Weather:

https://go.nasa.gov/49YFhDX[3]

From Science.Nasa.gov, Solar Moss:

https://go.nasa.gov/4b3n4Wn[4]

See sunspots with eclipse glasses:

https://bit.ly/4cXc5Qp[5]

I tried this, but had no luck, as the images were too tiny.

The latest video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, for April 14:

https://youtu.be/Z1OClNvDg2o[6]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[7]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[8] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[9] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[10] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[11] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ [12].

Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[13]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[14] .

Sunspot numbers for April 11 through 17 2024 were 81, 83, 115, 152,
193, 176, and 199, with a mean of 142.7. 10.7 cm flux was 143.7,
151.5, 161, 178.4, 191.9, 198.7, and 216.5, with a mean of 177.4.
Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 7, 5, 6, 8, 31, and 7, with a
mean of 10. Middle latitude A index was 6, 6, 6, 5, 7, 17, and 8,
with a mean of 7.9.

ÿ


[1] https://bit.ly/3W4GTID
[2] https://bit.ly/3Q3VDnh
[3] https://go.nasa.gov/49YFhDX
[4] https://go.nasa.gov/4b3n4Wn
[5] https://bit.ly/4cXc5Qp
[6] https://youtu.be/Z1OClNvDg2o
[7] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[8] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[11] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[12] http://k9la.us/
[13] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[14] http://arrl.org/bulletins

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